Sat TV Trends: 4th Jan 2020

Another MASSIVE day for the ITV4 horse racing cameras as they head to Wincanton and Sandown for more LIVE coverage - the first Saturday coverage of 2020!

Like every Saturday we take you through all the key trends and stats to help you whittle down the runners and hopefully find a few winners.

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.50 – New Unibet Uniboost Handicap Chase Cl2 2m ITV4

13/13 – Won over at least 2m (chase) previously
12/13 – Ran within the last 2 months
12/13 – Priced 17/2 or shorter
11/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/13 – Favourites placed
10/13 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/13 – Won between 1-4 times over fences in the UK previously
9/13 – Officially rated 135 or higher
8/13 – Never raced at Sandown
8/13 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/13 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Winning Favourites
7/13 – Unplaced last time out
4/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/13 – Went onto win a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Champion Chase, Grand Annual)
3/13 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/13 – Won their last race
Trainer Philip Hobbs has won 2 of the last 4 runnings
Darebin won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 8 running is 9/2

 

2.25 – Unibet Tolworth Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV4


14/15 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
14/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Priced  5/1 or shorter
13/15 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
12/15 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
12/15 – Came from the top three in the market
11/15 – Won last time out
10/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/15 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/15 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/15 – Winning Favourites
4/15 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
4/15 – Ran at either Sandown (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
3/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/15 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Ran at Sandown before
2/15 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/15 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Summerville Boy, 2018 & Noland, 2006)
1/15 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016)
5 or 6 years-old have won 21 of the last 27 runnings
Since 1988 ALL winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1


3.00 - Unibet Veterans´ Handicap Chase Final (The Final of The 2015 Veterans´ Chase Series) Cl2 3m37y ITV4

Just 4 previous runnings
Trainers Venetia Williams, Evan Williams, Charlie Longsdon and David Pipe are past winners
4/4 – Unplaced last time out
4/4 – Ran in last 4 weeks
4/4 – 4+ wins over fences
3/4 – Unplaced favourites
3/4 – Officially rated between 135-145
3/4 – winners aged 11 or 12 years-old
3/4 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
1/4 – Winning favourite (joint)
Trainer David Pipe has a 29% record with his chasers at the track

3.35 –Read Nico De Boinville’s Unibet Blog Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m110y ITV4

12/14 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
12/14 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
12/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
10/14 – Unplaced last time out
9/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/14 – Officially rated between 127 and 132
6/14 – Priced a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
6/14 – Went onto finish unplaced in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
6/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
4/14 – Irish bred
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
2/14 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/14 – Winning favourites
4 of the last 6 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 13/2

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2.05 – Watch Racing TV Now Handicap Chase Cl3 2m4f35y ITV4

No previous runnings
Paul Nicholls has a 31% record with his chasers at the track
Evan Williams has 21% record with his chasers at the track

2.40 –  Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5 1/2f ITV4

Just 3 previous runnings
Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, Henry Daly and Tom George were previous winners
3/3 – Winners aged between 5-7 years-old
3/3 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2/3 – Carried 11-10 or more in weight
Trainer Philip Hobbs is just 9 from 89 with his hurdlers at the track

 

3.15 – Join Racing TV Now Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

7/8 – Finished in the top 6 last time out
7/8 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
7/8 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
7/8 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
6/8 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
6/8 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
5/8 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
4/8 – French bred
2/8 – Ran at Exeter last time out
2/8 – Trained by Tom George
1/8 – Winning favourite
1/8 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 7 runs is 9/2

 

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway 2f out, switched right over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck and a nose)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Standard Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5208

Why?...

This 6 yr old USA-bred gelding was a winner LTO fifteen days ago when landing another 6f, C4, A/W hcp at Wolverhampton, causing him to be rated 3lbs higher today. But as that win came off the back of a 4-month break, he can be expected to come on for the run and the switch back to Southwell's fibresand track is another positive.

To date, he is 5/25 (20% SR) for 83.5pts (+334%) in A/W handicaps, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 5/20 (25%) for 88.5pts (+442.5%) without headgear
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) on Standard going
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) over 6 furlongs
  • 4/16 (25%) for 73.2pts (+457.5%) going left handed
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 12.7pts (+90.7%) after a short 7-15 day break
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.41pts (+23.4%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.41pts (+48.2%) over course and distance...

...whilst he is 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 77.2pts (+643.4% ROI) going left handed over 6f on Standard with no head gear and this includes 2 from 5 (40%) over C&D, 2 from 5 (40%) within 15 dslr and 2 from 2 (100%) at Southwell within 15 dslr.

I mentioned at the top that he was USA-bred and much (possibly too much) has already been said (including by myself) about the success rate of USA-bred runners at this track. So much so that any value from just following them has now been pretty much eroded/eradicated, as those pesky bookies cotton on!

However (there's always an however!), it is worth knowing that there are still some niche angles that are profitable including this one of relevance today... 5-7 yr old, USA-bred males sent off at 12/1 or shorter over 6f to 1m in Class 4-6 A/W hcps at Southwell.

Trust me, that's more complicated in print than it is in practice and following such runners over the last three years (no reliance on old data) would have found you 20 winners from 82 (24.4% SR) and 70.8pts (+86.3% ROI) of profit and with this horse and race specifically in mind...

  • those sent off at 5/1 and shorter have a 27.5% strike rate (11 from 40)
  • those racing over this 6f course and distance have won 34.6% (9/26)
  • 6 yr olds have a 28% SR via 7 wins from 25
  • those 6f runners sent off at 5/1 max are 6/14 (42.9% SR)
  • whilst at Class 4 it's 4 from 19 for a 21% win ratio...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG as was available from best priced Unibet at 8.10am on Friday (plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2020

New Year's Day's pick was...

12.15 Cheltenham : Redford Road @ 3/1 & BFSP 5th at 2/1 & 3.18 (Led until not fluent 3 out, soon led again, headed off last bend and one pace after)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP

...in a 9-runner, Class 6 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Standard Polytrack worth £2,846 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old Mare is seeking a hat-trick today after wins here at Chelmsford eight weeks ago and then at Wolverhampton three weeks back.

Jockey Hollie Doyle was on board last time and retains the ride today, hoping to maintain her own good form that has seen her ride 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last fortnight and she'll also be hoping to land another winner for trainer Tony Carroll for whom she was 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 7.25pts (+42.6% ROI) in 2019, including of relevance today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.25pts (+86.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 15.25pts (+169.4%) at sub-6/1 odds
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 7.91pts (+65.9%) on the A/W
  • 3/5 (60%) for 8.4pts (+168%) on female runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.4pts (+235.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.92pts (+48.6%) at Class 6

...whilst over the last two years Tony's sub-12/1 A/W handicappers racing over 1m3f to 1m6f are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 43.3pts (+98.4% ROI), from which...

  • those running on Poly are 6/24 (25%) for 24.5pts (+102.2%)
  • Class 6 runners are 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+98%)
  • Class 6 Poly runners are 3/12 (25%) for 18.12pts (+151%)
  • and LTO winners are 3/10 930%) for 6.2pts (+62%)

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Spreadex at 8.30am on Thursday (was 7/2 at 9.10am!), but do take BOG where possible. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2020

New Year's Eve's pick was...

3.20 Lingfield : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer)

New Year's Day's pick runs in the...

12.15 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redford Road @ 3/1 and Betfair SP

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Ballymore Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £14,238 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was a Grade 2 winner here at Cheltenham on his last start 18 days ago and although he now takes a drop in trip, he has won at 2m4f over hurdles in the past. In fact he's never been out of the first two home in five starts, winning three times and never beaten by more than a length, including...

  • 3 from 3 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a second from 3 over hurdles (all Novice events)
  • 2 from 2 under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • a win and a second from 2 on Soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Cheltenham

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers who won last time out are 31 from 99 (31.3% SR) for 17.1pts (+17.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of Evens to 13/2 over the past four years, including of relevance today...

  • 31/97 (32%) for 19.1pts (+19.7%) with males
  • 25/67 (37.3%) for 30.2pts (+45.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 11/19 (57.9%) for 22.4pts (+117.7%) over trips of 2m3½f to 2m4½f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 1.5pts (+5%) on soft ground
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.4pts (+12.4%) here at HQ
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%) in January
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 10.6pts (+265%) from those dropping in trip by 4-5 furlongs

...whilst from the above...5-6 yr old males racing over 2m3½f to 2m4½f are 9/15 (60% SR) for 21.53pts (+143.5% ROI) including 4/7 on soft, 2/2 in Jan, 2/2 dropping 4-5f and 1/1 at Chelts...

...giving us...0.5pts at Betfair SP and a 0.5pt win bet on Redford Road @ 3/1 as was available from Paddy Power & Betfair at 6.40pm on New Year's Eve. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

A Decade in the Life of geegeez.co.uk

It's that time of the year, of the decade, when retrospectives are all the rage. So, while I appreciate you've probably had more than your fill of such self-congratulatory mush in recent days, what follows will add to the pile. For regular readers who have joined at any point after 2010, there may be some interesting factoids in the below.

geegeez.co.uk first saw the light of day in August 2008, as a one man - me - blog. Now, more than eleven years later, I still drive the bus, though with co-pilots, mechanics and conductors aplenty. This remains a boutique site, it remains funded by your Geegeez Gold subscriptions (as opposed to bookmaker revenue share, which is a different model from basically every other major racecard/form provider), and it remains privately owned with an ethos that focuses on you, our loyal reader/subscriber, rather than 'shareholder value'.

Right, self-righteous back-slapping out of the way, on with the show...

Before the decade began

As mentioned, geegeez.co.uk actually began life in the second half of 2008, when we were all a little younger and faster. It looked very much like this, and sat - for those of a vaguely techie nature - on google's blogger platform. High art it was not...

 

January 2010

Moving on, and the first of many failed cosmetic enhancements was applied in early 2009. The site retained this look at the beginning of the decade, having now moved from blogger to WordPress which, ten years later, is the de facto platform for such content hubs and used by the likes of cnn.com.

The red, white and blue banner was in situ at this point but the site remained a blog funded by affiliate commissions from products we reviewed, as well as those sold ourselves such as Trainer Track Stats.

July 2011

By July 2011, there had been another facelift - things were looking a lot more professional now - and we also had a small team of writers including Ross Birkett (amateur jockey and assistant trainer to his mum, Julia Feilden) and Mal Boyle, the placepot guru.

On reflection, that front page looks better than the current one - a job to be addressed early in 2020! - and the box bottom right hints at a change in direction for the site towards what you currently know and, hopefully, love.

 

January 2012

Inexplicably, to me at least, the previous look failed to appeal to site users, so we reverted to linking from the home page to bundles of content. At this time, Ian Sutherland was writing news articles as well as some 'what's in a name' insights on horses and lost racecourses, and we were still reviewing betting products as we continue to do to this day (albeit on a smaller scale).

The eagle-eyed amongst you will notice the third item down in the middle column, Stat of the Day. This feature was incepted in November 2011, meaning we recently passed eight years of service, every one of them profitable thanks, almost exclusively, to one man, Chris Worrall. He has been as important a member of the team as anybody during this past decade and I'm extremely grateful to him for his help and support, as well as his - generally - calm influence. Thanks Chris!

 

May 2013

This guy turned up in 2013, and I kind of liked him. But, in the end, he became a victim of the corporate culture as he was deemed not sufficiently professional looking for a site with upwardly mobile aspirations. Sigh.

 

Anyway, he was cool!

 

 

 

January 2014

In the middle of 2013, geegeez.co.uk published its first racecards. They were pretty basic and they were free. There was a problem with this: I couldn't afford the data and development costs to keep them going. So, after much soul searching, I decided they needed to be a premium product based on a monthly or annual subscription. The initial fee was set at just £12 a month, a figure that recognised both my discomfort at charging for something I'd expected to monetise in other ways and the fact that there wasn't a huge amount of depth to them at that stage.

Here's how a card looked back then:

However, what we did have - in its embryonic format - was Instant Expert. Here is a very early incarnation - at that time called Race Analysis Report, or RAR - of what has become a cornerstone of form profile punters' betting activity.

Of course, Alder Mairi won this race, and below are early images of both Full Form (Filter) and the Result.

 

To be perfectly honest, it was successes like this one that gave me the confidence to plough on with Geegeez Gold. The end of 2013 was a pivotal time for me and the site, as the stress of making a commercial go of what had become a significant cost base was leading me to wonder if I hadn't made a massive mistake.

I'd written this post - https://www.geegeez.co.uk/a-new-beginning-for-geegeez-co-uk/ - at the end of 2013 when it had "all come on top" as Arthur Daley used to say, and I was looking for a buyer. What an error that would have been, in so many ways, for me personally; and I'm glad that people didn't see the future value in the site that I did.

 

September 2015

By the end of 2015, the Gold service was very much the core of what we did, as it has been ever since. I tend not to blow my trumpet too much in public (though this article may contradict that!), but I had privately decided I wanted to make Geegeez Gold the best racecard and form tool service in Britain and Ireland. Five years from September 2015 - i.e. in nine months' time - I think I'll be happy we've achieved that.

Here's how the main features on Gold shaped up roughly four years ago:

 

January 2018

The site continued to provide cutting edge data driven editorial from incisive and pithy writers such as Tony Keenan, as well as Fleet Street denizens like Tony Stafford. And Geegeez Gold continued its feature accumulation, with the following being added since autumn 2015:

Meanwhile, geegeez.co.uk had evolved visually once more, into something close to its current aesthetic:

 

January 2019

And so to 2019. The 'look and feel' is fresher, with the red being dropped from the branding in favour of the white/blue combination. Content has been a little quieter this year, though where quantity has been limited we've deliberately focused on quality.

 

January 2020

And so to a new decade. Where are we?

From those humble beginnings as a little blog site with, as the excellent Robin Gibson of Racing Post's Surf and Turf feature once said, "a few serviceable posts", we've created a community of racing fans, and a betting information hub with few - arguably, no - peers.

During that time, we've syndicated horses and enjoyed numerous winners; we've sponsored jockeys such as David Probert, Rex Dingle and Callum Rodriguez, and the ever-brilliant Anthony Honeyball yard; and I/we continue to re-invest pretty much everything that doesn't put bread on my family's table into this website.

Whether it's top class editorial from the Tony's, Keenan and Stafford, Jon Shenton, Dave Renham, Andy Newton, and of course Stat of the Day Chris and myself; or new features within Geegeez Gold, such as sectional timing, additional reports, and greater user configurability (all built by the peerless Nige and our new database whizz, Jean-Francois), the subscriptions you pay contribute directly to the ongoing development of the service and the site.

*

December 2020

We've a very busy year of development planned. Here's what's on the menu for 2020 and where I hope we'll be by this time next year:

- Hiring some content and marketing people to help share what we have with existing and new readers

- Bringing sectional timing to life, an ongoing project

- A revamped Query Tool allowing for far greater depth and analytical tinkery-pokery

- Betfair exchange data and interface to wager directly into the exchange

- A raft of smaller upgrades including PRB (percentage of rivals beaten), a trainer 'days since last run' report, graphical race visualisations, overrounds, HC2 and TC2 (2nd start in a handicap or for a new trainer), ROI calculations in reports and draw/pace content, and plenty more besides

*

Finally, a very heartfelt word, directly from me to you.

For allowing me to live my dream for more than a decade now, I cannot thank you enough. Whether you've been here since the get go or have stumbled upon us more recently, THANK YOU. Thank you. Thank you. I hope that the content on these virtual pages attests to the sincerity of my gratitude.

Here's to the next decade!

Matt, and all of the team at geegeez.co.uk

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2019

Monday's pick was...

12.25 Haydock : Longhousesignora @ 4/1 9th at 15/2 (Prominent until 2nd, chased leaders, lost place before 4th, closed after 6th, ridden next, weakened after 8th)

New Year's Eve's pick runs in the...

3.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back course and distance wins on this track in the last month, both at this grade under today's jockey and beating six of today's ten rivals in the process.

Jockey Hector Crouch is in decent touch right now (generally a useful pointer with these lower grade horses who tend to bet each other on a cyclical basis) having clocked up 5 winners from 25 (20% SR) for 3.11pts (+12.4% ROI) over the last three weeks of racing, from which he is...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.11pts (+134.3%) at 8/1 or shorter
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.11pts (+212.3%) at Class 6
  • 4/16 (25%) for 10.16pts (+63.5%) at Lingfield
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 12.37pts (+112.5%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 19.37pts (+484.25%) at 8/1 or shorter in Lingfield Class 6 handicaps.

Trainer John E Long doesn't have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but the numbers say he's having a fair old time of it these last two years. He might have only sent 61 runners out in the last 24 months, but 13 winners (21.3% SR) and 180.9pts (+296.5% ROI) profit suggest he might be one to keep an eye on, especially under conditions like today, as those 61 runners are...

  • 13/52 (25%) for 189.9pts (+365.2%) in races worth less than £4600 to the winner
  • 13/51 (25.5%) for 190.9pts (+374.3%) in handicaps
  • 13/47 (27.7%) for 194.9pts (+414.7%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 188pts (+400%) over 6 to 10 furlongs
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 164pts (+455.7%) within 45 days of their last run
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 119pts (+297.5%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 147.7pts (+351.7%) within 60 miles of base
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 136pts (+388.5%) on the A/W (all on Poly)
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 99.7pts (+311.5%) at Class 6
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 144.3pts (+655.9%) from September to January
  • 6/15 (40%) for 60.5pts (+403.1%) at 6 furlongs
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13.3pts (+110.7%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 9pts (+82.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 15pts (+186.9%) with Hector Crouch in the saddle

Obviously you can combine the above details into a composite angle, but with each added filter you do dilute the sample size.

If you took the first 7 of those 14 angles above, then 4/5 yr olds having travelled less than 60 miles from home to run in 8-13 runner handicaps over 6-1o furlongs worth less than £4600 within 45 days of their last run are 8 from 14 (57.1% SR) for 92.8pts (+663% ROI), including 6 from 9 at Class 6, 5 from 9 on A/W (all Poly), 5 from 6 from September to December and 4 from 7 over 6f and so on...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 12.30am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: Short Sharp Shocks

They were at it again last week. Sir Anthony McCoy urged Harry Cobden not to doubt his mount Cyrname’s stamina first time over three miles in the King George, writes Tony Stafford. In the same Racing Post article, Lee Mottershead wondered whether the same three miles would be a sufficient stamina test to play to Lostintranslation’s strengths. As well as Paul Nicholls, the former’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, his fellow OBE recipient in the New Year’s Honours list, also reckons Kempton Park is a sharp track.

They almost got me at it too. After decades of arguing that it’s one thing to call it sharp when a few 0-120 journeymen trundle around Sunbury on good ground, which often pertains at Kempton, but in championship races in soft ground if you don’t stay you drop away.

What constitutes a sharp track: nippy mile or mile two around circuits with tight bends? Kempton is near enough a mile and five furlongs around; the fences take jumping and from the end of the back straight there’s a long easy bend into a three-furlong run-in with three final obstacles to negotiate. How can that be sharp when there’s nowhere to take a breather?

We knew Cyrname was good over two miles five, as at Ascot where he inflicted the only jumping defeat ever experienced by the previously-flawless Altior. At Kempton, sharing rather than dominating the pace as Sir AP encouraged, he stopped as if shot in the straight, in the end beaten 21 lengths into second by his stable-companion Clan Des Obeaux, an 11th King George winner for Nicholls.

Footpad was third for Ireland ahead of Aso, an outclassed nine-year-old and the only non-member of the gang of seven <years old> completed by the very disappointing Lostintranslation who was the first beaten simply because he jumped badly.

Top-class races, where all the participants are entitled to be there, put extra demands on horses. It was Cyrname’s 12th race over fences last Thursday, and his first over the distance less than five weeks after that battle royal with Altior. It had also taken Paul Nicholls plenty of time before allowing Clan Des Obeaux to try three miles which he did in his tenth steeplechase. He was third, around ten lengths behind Might Bite in the Betway Aintree Bowl, which ended his season. Nicholls then brought him back to finish fourth behind course-specialist Bristol De Mai in the Betfair Chase at Haydock  in November 2018, so when he turned up at Kempton last Boxing Day, he was a 12-1 shot for the King George.

He took advantage of mishaps to both those horses – Might Bite finished last and was found to have bled during the race, while Bristol De Mai was an early faller - and beat Thistlecrack by a length and a half. It was unfortunate that the veteran Thistlecrack, who had given Paisley Park such an examination over hurdles at Newbury last month, was unable to take part on Thursday after sustaining a minor injury.

Though only a seven-year-old, Clan Des Obeaux was having his 17th race over fences.  After last year’s King George he picked up a nice pot at Ascot in February; was fifth to Al Boum Photo in the Gold Cup and second to Kemboy at Punchestown in May at the end of a demanding season. He reappeared at Down Royal last month, going under only to the smart Road To Respect.

If you thought Christmas might clear up the Gold Cup situation, think again. Saturday’s Savills Chase at Leopardstown, which featured the much-heralded return for Kemboy after the problems surrounding his ownership had finally been cleared up, might have brought clarity. Instead coming to the bend into the short straight, all eight horses were in with a chance, and it was Delta Work, coming fast and late and hanging left  in the Gigginstown first colours that got up to beat front-running Monalee near the line.

Road To Respect (Gigginstown and Gordon Elliott again), Kemboy and Presenting Percy were in a cluster just behind and three of the five – Kemboy (6-1), Delta Work (8-1) and Presenting Percy (10-1) – are among the leaders in the market for next March’s Gold Cup along with Clan Des Obeaux (7-1) and Lostintranslation, the deposed former favourite at 8’s.

The title-holder, Al Boum Photo, Willie Mullins’ first winner of the big race last March, has a potentially facile opportunity to get his season going at Tramore on New Year’s Day in a 2m5f conditions chase which appeals more than last week’s alternatives including the Savills Chase.

There were some Christmas re-alignments, too, in Champion Hurdle betting with seismic blows first at Kempton where the mare Epatante majestically outpointed the boys with a mixture of speed and accuracy. She is now the 3-1 favourite to give Nicky Henderson another championship, while the Mullins forces were also shaken up with yesterday’s demise of Klassical Dream in the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown.

Klassical Dream was reckoned to have needed the run when dropping away late on behind one stable-companion Saldier and excellent yardstick Petit Mouchoir in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown last month but there could be no fitness excuses for yesterday’s abject failure behind another team-mate Sharjah in the Matheson, with Petit Mouchoir again second but twice as far behind this Mullins winner.

Saldier is second favourite for Cheltenham at 6-1 ahead of a second Henderson runner, the rising five-year-old Pentland Hills, last season’s Triumph and Aintree winner. His underwhelming fifth on comeback this month to another Nicky hurdler, Call Me Lord, was explained by a refusal to settle. He’ll need to get that out of his system next time.

The one name that might emerge to give that particular market a shake-up is Honeysuckle. The Henry de Bromhead-trained mare has a record of six wins in as many hurdles starts, five of them at Fairyhouse. Her winning margins to date have been 12 lengths, 3¼, 6, 5½, 11 and 9, and only once was the word “easily” not used to characterise the victory. That happened on her penultimate start when she beat Saturday’s Leopardstown winner Easy Game by 11 lengths. The comment here was “eased clear…not extended”.

Honeysuckle is generally a 10-1 shot but, like so many mares, especially those trained by Willie Mullins, there is a ready alternative at the Festival to stay with her own sex. It could well be, though, that de Bromhead might be persuaded to go for the big one. On the issue of persuasion, if you could entice your friendly <are there any?> bookmaker to give you say 8-1 with the run-guarantee concession, that might well be one to keep in the locker.

**

I got a call the other day from a very shrewd friend who said, “While Hughie Morrison’s in this sort of form you’ve got to stay with him”, and on the same day Hughie’s juvenile, Kipps, duly confirmed debut promise with a nice win at Lingfield, auguring well for his future as a stayer next year.

Unbeknown to my friend, Supamouse, one of the trainer’s two Boxing Day winners that had prompted the call after his 14-length bumper defeat of the Nicholls favourite and previous course winner Confirmation Bias, had collapsed and died back at the stables.

As the trainer said, with horses you can be up one minute and down on the floor the next. It must have seemed momentarily for Hughie, Mary and everyone else at Summerdown that all the hard work and planning had  been worthwhile with a brilliant future ready to map out for Supamouse, a son of his former star Stimulation, only for it to come crashing down. My sympathies go out to a wonderful trainer and a thoroughly good man.

- TS

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 23rd to 28th December 2019

A short and frustrating week, folks. Once again we were far happier with our picks than the actual results we achieved.

I picked Roll Again on Boxing Day and he was travelling really well until coming down, whilst yesterday I went with Tidal Flow who did absolutely nothing wrong, but was simply second best to an impressive winner on the day.

I was otherwise engaged in the North East on Boxing Day, so Matt stepped in with Classic Design on Friday, who made a mess of the start, went right, but still managed to be leading inside the final furlong. He'd possibly done too much to get to the front and was subsequently headed deep into that final furlong. Don't, however, be fooled by his eventual 6th place finish, he really wasn't that far off.

All of which means that it's highly unlikely that we'll post a profit for the month, unless I can end with a pair of 4/1 winners! It's not inconceivable, but we should be realistic about these things. The very worst case scenario on the other hand is two more defeats, a loss of almost 10pts on the month and a final result of plus 35.5pts for the year.

As this is the last roundup of 2019, I'd like to thank you all for your continued support and encouragement in what has been a very frustrating and frankly disappointing year for me. A 35.5pts return might be considered decent from other "tipsters", but it's someway short of my own privately-set personal target (Matt/GGZ don't set targets for me, I "work" free from such pressure : that's the Geegeez way.) and I'll expand a little more on that next weekend.

Hoping for a better next two days, a better 2020 and that you all have a fantastic New Year.

Chris

Selections & Results : 23/12/19 to 28/12/19

23/12 : No Racing
24/12 : No Racing
25/12 : No Racing
26/12 : Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1
27/12 : Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2
28/12 : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2

23/12/19 to 28/12/19 :
0 winning bet from 3 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -3.00pts

December 2019 :
3 winners from 20 = 15.00% SR
P/L: -7.84pts
ROI = -39.20%

2019 to date :
66 winners from 288 = 22.92% SR
P/L: +37.46pts
ROI = +13.00%

Overall:
656 winners from 2464 = 26.62% S.R
P/L: +533.87pts
ROI: +21.67%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

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