As Storm Ciara wipes out racing in the British Isles, I thought a leisurely mid-morning Sunday rather than a 4 a.m. Monday start would make for a nice change, writes Tony Stafford. It’s windy here too, and I keep thinking the front door’s about to blow in. I’ll let you know if it does.
A standing start and the inevitable criss-cross of half a dozen of Not Too Sleepy’s opponents, three from either side, in front of him was enough to decide the Hughie Morrison hurdler’s fate in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. That left the way clear for a trio of five-year-old French imports to clean up in first, second and close fifth for the big-spending Nicholls (Johnny De La Haye, first and fifth) and Willie Mullins/ J P McManus teams. Pic d’Orhy, 33-1, won from the 13-2 favourite, Ciel De Neige, with the Nicholls second string Tamaroc Du Mathan a close fifth at 50-1.
Every February I know David Dickinson, the two-mile hurdles handicapper, steels himself for the identity of which of the Ditcheat (funny that the word ends as it does!) UK debutants is the one to fear in the Fred Winter (now Boodles) Juvenile handicap. Dave has to assess them on French form and by the time they come over there’s already plenty to go on, unlike with the domestic bunch.
For example, Waterproof, a winner second time for Ray Tooth at Fakenham, getting 127, might just squeeze in at the bottom on ratings, but needs a third run to qualify, hopefully in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock on Saturday before next Tuesday’s closing date.
Meanwhile the 2020 French Cheltenham Festival juvenile candidates will have racked up plenty of experience. Ciel De Neige ran in last year’s Boodles, finishing a creditable third of 21 on debut for Mullins after three seemingly undistinguished runs, 445, for Guy Cherel. They were enough to earn a figure of 132 and his position just over three lengths behind Band Of Outlaws seemed to guarantee imminent success. Amazingly after Saturday, he remains a maiden, beaten twice more in Ireland this winter before yesterday’s near miss.
The second of those “undistinguished” runs came on April 28th 2018 at Auteuil when he was fourth, eight and a half lengths behind the odds-on Pic D’Orhy, the Francois Nicolle trainee having already won on debut. More significantly, runner-up at three lengths on debut and seven lengths in this race was Goliath Du Berlais.
A non-winner in four hurdles, Goliath Du Berlais switched to fences following another run behind Pic D’Orhy in June and won seven of eight races before May last year since when he has disappeared from the circuit. The France Galop site not only lists form for all horses but also all entries and Goliath remains un-entered since May 19, the day after his last win.
The race I just referred to on June 9 2018 was won by Porto Pollo, who had been 13th, then pulled up and a faller in three runs on different provincial tracks. No wonder he started almost 13-1 for the seven-runner Grade 3 juvenile hurdle for which Pic D’Orhy was a 1-2 shot. But he prevailed by a length and a half. It is only when you see what was behind the pair that you realise the merit of the run, especially for the winner who incidentally has never replicated it since despite a couple more wins.
Third, a head back, was Beaumac De Huelle. That son of the great and recently-deceased Martaline only ran as a three-year-old and this was his sole defeat in six starts. He twice subsequently got the better of Pic D’Orhy in valuable races, first by a short neck in a €66k event in October then by a length and a quarter the following month, this time in a €101k contest. Second places in those two races earned a combined €80k for the son of Turgeon before his switch to Nicholls. Beaumac De Huelle has now joined the stallion team at Haras de Montaigu, in part replacing Martaline. Aliette and Guy Forien, the stud’s owners, also bred the Nicolas Clement-trained French Fifteen and they joined me on the winner’s podium after he won his Group 1 at Saint-Cloud for Ray.
The also-rans in that June 2018 race also bear repeating. Flumicino (fourth) has won three times; Goliath was fifth as I said earlier and then came two horses destined for Joseph O’Brien. Sixth home was the 29/1 shot Fakir D’Oudairies, now a 149-rated hurdler and 156 chaser for the young master, while Konitho, who trailed the field as a 56-1 shot that day, was good enough to beat 23 others by five lengths and more at Naas a year ago today in the colours of his sister Sarah. They soon were switched to the green and gold hoops.
So what of Pic D’Orhy since his departure from Nicolle? He started his UK career in the Triumph Hurdle, finishing tenth of 14 behind Pentland Hills. That race came almost four months after his French finale and you could excuse ring-rustiness. Less forgivable was his fall when returning to Auteuil after another break, on November 10 last year. Then on his only subsequent run before the Betfair, Pic D’Orhy, running over almost two and a half miles, pulled hard, raced round the outside and faded, finishing sixth more than 14 lengths behind Thomas Darby.
So now we can fast forward to Newbury, back to two miles and in a field where he could be covered up in midfield. Harry Cobden achieved this requirement comfortably and they came through to outdo Ceil De Neige, just as he had 22 months previously in Paris.
The number 33 is doubly significant for Pic D’Orhy. Not only was that his starting price, remarkable given his outstanding French juvenile form, but it was also the perhaps even more astonishing age at which his sire Turgeon, in his racing days winner of the Irish St Leger, died last year.
That means Pic D’Orhy was conceived when his sire was 28 years old. Turgeon’s amazing fertility can be judged by the fact that his 2015 crop including the Betfair Hurdle hero comprised 42 foals, his biggest of recent times. It only dropped below 30 with 20 in his penultimate crop of 2018, and in the year of his death, a final group of five remained as a legacy to his longevity.
I love the statistics in France Galop. They tell me that Turgeon, who still commanded a fee of €4k in his final year, 2018, had 853 foals. They have run in 6,901 races winning 748. Total earnings from that little group amount to more than €25 million. The way Pic D’Orhy won the Betfair Hurdle, he will probably go on and win the County Hurdle next month with plenty more victories to come.
**
Apologies to all who sail in her, but I’m afraid the geegeez.co.uk filly Coquelicot is only a footnote rather than the week’s top news. She looked pretty good at Huntingdon under a penalty in a bumper where they were strung out all along the straight. “Poppy” has the prestigious fillies’ bumper at Sandown as her target. One day she might win a Queen Alexandra on the Flat, or more lucratively emulate her older brother Heartbreak City by winning the Ebor and then improve on his record to win rather than be second in the Melbourne Cup! Matt, you have to dream in this game. There are enough nightmares to endure when you own horses.
-TS
Geegeez Notches Best Betting Website Four-Timer
/in Horse Racing Blog/by mattbisognoOops, we did it again, as Britney Spears never quite sang. With the results just in from the 2020 Smart Betting Club Awards, I'm delighted to announce that geegeez.co.uk has won the Best Betting Website category... for the fourth year in a row.
Here's how the SBC Awards report broke the news
Scooping more than a third of all votes is something we're immensely proud of, as is beating the likes of Oddschecker, ATR, Racing Post, Betting.Betfair, and so on.
We've never been able to compete with the massive budgets of those major media houses; but that has never stopped us punching above our weight. The ethos of geegeez.co.uk is simple: highest quality data-driven content presented in an easily consumable format.
In other words, we aim to deliver key punting messages in bite-sized snippets, whether that's through our Gold racecards and form tools, or in the insightful research-based editorial produced by the likes of Tony Keenan, Jon Shenton, Dave Renham, Chris Worrall and myself.
This is how the votes were distributed:
Of course, we'll never win an 'industry' award, because we're never nominated. We're not part of that club where members take it in turns to back slap each other. Nope, we rely on your votes - you know, the actual users of our site (ahem) - to express your feelings about the value you get. Thank you for validating the effort we put in to building the best product/site/service we can.
And we're not done yet.
Not by a long chalk.
Here are just a few of the things we have planned for 2020:
- Betfair Starting Price data in our reports and cards: so you can see profit and loss against exchange prices (with commission deducted)
- Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) and PRB2 metrics: so you can deploy this professional's barometer of performance
- Draw / Pace heat map underlayed within the pace map: so you can see how stall position and run style might impact today's field.
- Query Tool v2.0: a brand new, much more functional, system builder tool. Planned for the second half of 2020.
- Headgear and 'DSLR' (days since last run) reports
- 2nd time in a handicap and 2nd time for a new trainer (HC2 / TC2) reports
...and a bundle more besides.
As always, if you have any suggestions, please do let us know via the Contact form on site. That's how some of our best features - including the heat map one above - come to life.
*
On behalf of the entire team - developers, backroom staff, writers and myself - thank you so much for your ongoing support - it means the world to us to know that the hours we put in are appreciated by you, our highly valued readers and subscribers.
Matt
p.s. you can download a copy of the full report here.
p.p.s. I personally won a prize, too: the inaugural Best Betting Writer. That really is too kind. Indeed, I'm not even convinced I'm the best betting writer on geegeez.co.uk these days, something about which I'm delighted. Healthy competition at a high quality level is what I've always aspired to for readers of geegeez. It's a thrill to be a part of such a great editorial team.
Elsewhere in cyberspace, the likes of Kevin Blake and Lydia Hislop, as well as the excellent pair of Joseph Buchdahl and Paul Krishnamurty, are all writers well worth your time if you're as yet unfamiliar with them.
Stat of the Day, 11th February 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoMonday's pick was...
4.10 Plumpton : Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 15/2 (Led until after 1st, chased leader until before 3 out, went 2nd again before next, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)
Tuesday's pick runs in the...
5.20 Newcastle :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
Our hand has been forced slightly again by the weather, but I think we've got a good chance with this 5 yr old Mare looking to snap a long losing run, now that she's rated (OR) 3lbs lower than her last win.
She showed signs of a return to form five days ago when finishing as a runner-up over course and distance of today's mark of 64 in a Class 5 contest and with a drop in class allied to having a 5lb claimer on her back here, she could go one better today turned back out quickly.
Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it fairly brief and simple, as I try to unravel why she is running again so quickly and the obvious thing is that her handlers feel she's ready to win after that seeming return to form and a closer analysis of the yard's MO backs this up as...
...trainer Michael Herrington is 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 22.1pts (+31.5% ROI) when backing all his UK handicappers since the start of 2016 turned back out within a fortnight of finishing in the first three home last time out, including of relevance today...
...whilst his 2-6 yr olds sent off at Evens to 6/1 in Class 6 contests on Tapeta are 4/10 (40% SR) for 8.81pts (+88.1% ROI)...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Unibet at 8.03am Tuesday will Hills offering slightly more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newcastle
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2020)
/in Stats, Trends/by mattbisognoEach day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!
DAY THREE: Thursday 12th March 2020
13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase 2m 4f
2019 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL 3/1 fav
Trainer – Philip Hobbs
Jockey – Barry Geraghty
Pluses….
Negatives….
14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle 3m
2019 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS 4/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Barry Geraghty
Pluses….
Negatives….
14:50 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f
2019 Winner: FRODON (9/2)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Bryony Frost
Pluses….
Negatives….
15:30 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 3m
2019 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Emma Lavelle
Jockey – Aidan Coleman
Pluses….
Negatives….
16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 2m 5f
2019 Winner: SIRUH DU LAC (9/2)
Trainer – Nick Williams
Jockey – Lizzie Kelly
Pluses….
Negatives….
16:50 Daylesford Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f
2019 Winner: EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 50/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Noel Fehily
17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase 3m 1½f
2019 Winner: ANY SECOND NOW (6/1)
Trainer – Ted Walsh
Jockey – Mr Derek O’Connor
Pluses….
8 of the last 11 winners ran in February
Owner JP McManus often does well in the race
Negatives….
=================================================================
GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!
**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!
FIND OUT MORE HERE
=================================================================
Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays
2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2020)
/in Stats, Trends/by mattbisognoEach day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!
DAY TWO: Wednesday 11th March 2020
13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 2m 5f
2019 Winner: CITY ISLAND 8/1
Trainer –Martin Brassil
Jockey – Mark Walsh
Pluses….
Negatives….
14:10 RSA Chase 3m ½f
2019 Winner: TOPOFTHEGAME 4/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
Pluses….
Negatives….
14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f
2019 Winner: WILLIAM HENRY (28/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
Pluses….
Negatives….
15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 2m
2019 Winner: ALTIOR 4/11 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
Pluses….
Negatives….
16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 7f
2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL 5/4 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
Pluses….
Negatives….
16:50 Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m ½f
2019 Winner: BAND OF OUTLAWS7/2 fav
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – J J Slevin
Pluses….
Negatives….
17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 2m ½f
2019 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 2/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd
Pluses….
Negatives….
=================================================================
GET THE BEST DAILY TRAINER INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES - Sent direct to your in-box!
**SPECIAL OFFER** TRY US FOR JUST £1.99!!
FIND OUT MORE HERE
=================================================================
Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays
Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020
/in Horse Racing Blog/by mattbisognoSaturday's pick was...
4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)
Monday's pick runs in the...
4.15 Plumpton :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG
...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...
Why?...
This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.
1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.
2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...
3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...
4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)
...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoSaturday's pick was...
4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)
Monday's pick runs in the...
4.15 Plumpton :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG
...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...
Why?...
This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.
1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.
2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...
3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...
4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)
...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Monday Musings: French Imports Galore
/in Monday Musings/by mattbisognoAs Storm Ciara wipes out racing in the British Isles, I thought a leisurely mid-morning Sunday rather than a 4 a.m. Monday start would make for a nice change, writes Tony Stafford. It’s windy here too, and I keep thinking the front door’s about to blow in. I’ll let you know if it does.
A standing start and the inevitable criss-cross of half a dozen of Not Too Sleepy’s opponents, three from either side, in front of him was enough to decide the Hughie Morrison hurdler’s fate in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. That left the way clear for a trio of five-year-old French imports to clean up in first, second and close fifth for the big-spending Nicholls (Johnny De La Haye, first and fifth) and Willie Mullins/ J P McManus teams. Pic d’Orhy, 33-1, won from the 13-2 favourite, Ciel De Neige, with the Nicholls second string Tamaroc Du Mathan a close fifth at 50-1.
Every February I know David Dickinson, the two-mile hurdles handicapper, steels himself for the identity of which of the Ditcheat (funny that the word ends as it does!) UK debutants is the one to fear in the Fred Winter (now Boodles) Juvenile handicap. Dave has to assess them on French form and by the time they come over there’s already plenty to go on, unlike with the domestic bunch.
For example, Waterproof, a winner second time for Ray Tooth at Fakenham, getting 127, might just squeeze in at the bottom on ratings, but needs a third run to qualify, hopefully in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock on Saturday before next Tuesday’s closing date.
Meanwhile the 2020 French Cheltenham Festival juvenile candidates will have racked up plenty of experience. Ciel De Neige ran in last year’s Boodles, finishing a creditable third of 21 on debut for Mullins after three seemingly undistinguished runs, 445, for Guy Cherel. They were enough to earn a figure of 132 and his position just over three lengths behind Band Of Outlaws seemed to guarantee imminent success. Amazingly after Saturday, he remains a maiden, beaten twice more in Ireland this winter before yesterday’s near miss.
The second of those “undistinguished” runs came on April 28th 2018 at Auteuil when he was fourth, eight and a half lengths behind the odds-on Pic D’Orhy, the Francois Nicolle trainee having already won on debut. More significantly, runner-up at three lengths on debut and seven lengths in this race was Goliath Du Berlais.
A non-winner in four hurdles, Goliath Du Berlais switched to fences following another run behind Pic D’Orhy in June and won seven of eight races before May last year since when he has disappeared from the circuit. The France Galop site not only lists form for all horses but also all entries and Goliath remains un-entered since May 19, the day after his last win.
The race I just referred to on June 9 2018 was won by Porto Pollo, who had been 13th, then pulled up and a faller in three runs on different provincial tracks. No wonder he started almost 13-1 for the seven-runner Grade 3 juvenile hurdle for which Pic D’Orhy was a 1-2 shot. But he prevailed by a length and a half. It is only when you see what was behind the pair that you realise the merit of the run, especially for the winner who incidentally has never replicated it since despite a couple more wins.
Third, a head back, was Beaumac De Huelle. That son of the great and recently-deceased Martaline only ran as a three-year-old and this was his sole defeat in six starts. He twice subsequently got the better of Pic D’Orhy in valuable races, first by a short neck in a €66k event in October then by a length and a quarter the following month, this time in a €101k contest. Second places in those two races earned a combined €80k for the son of Turgeon before his switch to Nicholls. Beaumac De Huelle has now joined the stallion team at Haras de Montaigu, in part replacing Martaline. Aliette and Guy Forien, the stud’s owners, also bred the Nicolas Clement-trained French Fifteen and they joined me on the winner’s podium after he won his Group 1 at Saint-Cloud for Ray.
The also-rans in that June 2018 race also bear repeating. Flumicino (fourth) has won three times; Goliath was fifth as I said earlier and then came two horses destined for Joseph O’Brien. Sixth home was the 29/1 shot Fakir D’Oudairies, now a 149-rated hurdler and 156 chaser for the young master, while Konitho, who trailed the field as a 56-1 shot that day, was good enough to beat 23 others by five lengths and more at Naas a year ago today in the colours of his sister Sarah. They soon were switched to the green and gold hoops.
So what of Pic D’Orhy since his departure from Nicolle? He started his UK career in the Triumph Hurdle, finishing tenth of 14 behind Pentland Hills. That race came almost four months after his French finale and you could excuse ring-rustiness. Less forgivable was his fall when returning to Auteuil after another break, on November 10 last year. Then on his only subsequent run before the Betfair, Pic D’Orhy, running over almost two and a half miles, pulled hard, raced round the outside and faded, finishing sixth more than 14 lengths behind Thomas Darby.
So now we can fast forward to Newbury, back to two miles and in a field where he could be covered up in midfield. Harry Cobden achieved this requirement comfortably and they came through to outdo Ceil De Neige, just as he had 22 months previously in Paris.
The number 33 is doubly significant for Pic D’Orhy. Not only was that his starting price, remarkable given his outstanding French juvenile form, but it was also the perhaps even more astonishing age at which his sire Turgeon, in his racing days winner of the Irish St Leger, died last year.
That means Pic D’Orhy was conceived when his sire was 28 years old. Turgeon’s amazing fertility can be judged by the fact that his 2015 crop including the Betfair Hurdle hero comprised 42 foals, his biggest of recent times. It only dropped below 30 with 20 in his penultimate crop of 2018, and in the year of his death, a final group of five remained as a legacy to his longevity.
I love the statistics in France Galop. They tell me that Turgeon, who still commanded a fee of €4k in his final year, 2018, had 853 foals. They have run in 6,901 races winning 748. Total earnings from that little group amount to more than €25 million. The way Pic D’Orhy won the Betfair Hurdle, he will probably go on and win the County Hurdle next month with plenty more victories to come.
**
Apologies to all who sail in her, but I’m afraid the geegeez.co.uk filly Coquelicot is only a footnote rather than the week’s top news. She looked pretty good at Huntingdon under a penalty in a bumper where they were strung out all along the straight. “Poppy” has the prestigious fillies’ bumper at Sandown as her target. One day she might win a Queen Alexandra on the Flat, or more lucratively emulate her older brother Heartbreak City by winning the Ebor and then improve on his record to win rather than be second in the Melbourne Cup! Matt, you have to dream in this game. There are enough nightmares to endure when you own horses.
-TS
SotD Update, 3rd to 8th February 2020
/in Horse Racing Blog/by mattbisognoLast week was the proverbial Curate's egg : good in parts. Ilhabela Fact was a nice SP-beating winner and we'd a couple of other placers. The stats for the month will show that we're one winner shy of parity for both strike rate and profitability and we really needed another of the placers to get home.
As ever, it's a case of fine margins and whilst I'm getting at least 50% of the picks to make the frame, I'm not unduly worried about some losses.
A milestone awaits us this week, too. If all goes to plan, Wednesday's runner will be our 2500th! Not for a small feature that we weren't sure would work/take off!
Chris
Selections & Results : 03/02/20 to 08/02/20
03/02 : Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2
04/02 : Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4
05/02 : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1
06/02 :Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG4th at 2/1
07/02 : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4
08/02 : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3
03/02/20 to 08/02/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.25pts
February 2020 :
1 winner from 7 = 14.29% SR
P/L: -3.25pts
ROI = -46.43%
Overall:
662 winners from 2497 = 26.51% S.R
P/L: +530.37pts
ROI: +21.24%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
And here is the overview for 2019
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
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Stat of the Day, 8th February 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoFriday's pick was...
3.05 Southwell : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch on outside, headway into 2nd over 3f out, challenged 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, no extra towards finish) - the lack of a finish showed why he's now 0/19.
Saturday's pick runs in the...
4.10 Newbury :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £8,058 to the winner...
Why?...
This 6 yr old gelding was quite well beaten back in fourth place last time out, four weeks ago, but in his defence that was a Grade 2 contest where he was unable to run his usual race from the front, as he had done when winning a Class 3 race at Plumpton two starts ago, under today's jockey Jonjo O'Neill (Jnr).
Back down at Class 3 and reunited with Jonjo, I'd expect him to be a different proposition today.
Jonjo is riding well of late and his 3 wins from 12 (25% SR) over the last week isn't a purple patch, as not only is he 13 from 53 (24.5%) over the past month, he;s also 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 24pts (+133.3% ROI) in handicaps here at Newbury over the last 12 months, including of relevance today...
...whilst trainer Colin Tizzard's Newbury handicappers sent off at 12/1 and shorter since the start of 2016 are 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 44.4pts (+130.6% ROI) : all males. Now, despite 34 runners not being a huge number to work from, there are actually plenty of different successful/profitable angles to be derived, suggesting conditions might be in our pick's favour today, as of the 34 original qualifiers...
...and if you wanted a composite micro from the above (mindful of a dilution of numbers, of course), you could try 5-10 yr olds returning from 3+ weeks rest to run in a 4-12 runner chase worth £6-12k for 8 winners from 13 (61.5% SR), all at Class 3 and giving 30.4pts profit at an ROI of 233.8%, including...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newbury
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY ONE (Tues 10th March 2020)
/in Stats, Trends/by mattbisognoEach day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!
DAY ONE: Tuesday 10th March 2020
13:30 – SkyBet Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2m ½f
2019 Winner: KLASSICAL DREAM 6/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Ruby Walsh
Pluses…..
Negatives…..
14:10 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase 2m
2019 Winner: DUC DES GENIEVRES 5/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
Pluses….
Negatives…..
14:50 Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase 3m 1f
2019 Winner: BEWARE THE BEAR 10/1
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Jeremiah McGrath
Pluses….
Negatives….
15:30 Unibet Champion Hurdle 2m ½f
2019 Winner: ESPOIR D’ALLEN 16/1
Trainer – Gavin Cromwell
Jockey – Mark Walsh
Pluses….
Negatives….
16:10 Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle 2m 4f
2019 Winner: ROKSANA 10/1
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
Pluses….
Negatives….
16:50 Northern Trust Company Novices' Handicap Chase 2m 4½f
2019 Winner: A PLUS TARD
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
Pluses….
Negatives….
17:30 National Hunt Challenge Chase 3m6f
2019 Winner: LE BREUIL 14/1
Trainer – Ben Pauling
Jockey – Jamie Codd
Pluses…..
Negatives….
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