Clock Watcher: State of the Union

The intent of this Clock Watcher series is primarily educational, though obviously with some entertainment value lobbed in as well. It is not really meant to be a tipping piece for all that example horses are generally presumed to have potentially more ability than immediately meets the eye. That said, when trying to extol the virtues of sectional data it certainly helps, from a credibility perspective as much as anything, if some of the mentioned animals win in their near futures.

It was heartening then to see National Anthem, flagged in the inaugural episode of Clock Watcher, win yesterday - and do so in similar vein to his bullet-from-a-gun effort ten days previously. To have doubled up after overcoming trouble at the start was more meritorious than a winning margin of three-quarters of a length implies. With a further four lengths back to the third and three more to the fourth it will be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts.

National Anthem was available at 5/2 overnight before returning a heavily-supported 11/8 favourite and, after two taxing runs in ten days following an absence of 471 days, he may need a little time before his next assignment.

Union one to follow

Onwards, and a horse who caught the eye last week, sectionally speaking, was Union, a three-year-old New Approach colt. Sent off at 6/5, it seemed that very few people had missed the finishing-strongly nature of his Kempton debut: that day he was held up before making up ground late. Sadly we don't yet have sectional data for Kempton but happily we do have them for Newcastle; and this is what they tell us about Union.

Let's start with the chart. The black line is par, an expression of what an efficient expenditure of energy looks like, furlong by furlong. Note that the opening section is always relatively slow because the field begins from a standing start. (This is different from, for example, America where there is a distance of 'run up' before the clock starts).

The red line is Union's sectional percentage by furlong, We can see from the comparison of the lines that the early part of Union's race was run on the slow side of even before he began to quicken from the half mile (actually from between the five and four furlong markers, as can be seen by the upward curve).

There was a notable injection of pace from the two to the one after which the race was in the bag, Union eventually coming away by a couple of lengths from two or three other promising types.

As can be seen from his sectional blocks below the chart, his final quarter mile was very fast against par. That, of course, is largely as a result of having gone steadily early; and he still recorded a Topspeed figure of 70 in spite of that inefficiency. Adding his upgrade of 19 gives a composite figure of 89, the largest such rating in the review period.

The second, Blow Your Horn, lays claim to an 81 for what was his debut. Given some greenness and keenness early on, he should at least nearly win a similar race next time.

Global makes Giant stride

Another name to note is one of John Gosden's high class winter team, this time a rare trainer switch into the yard. Global Giant won a small field conditions race at Wolverhampton over most of a mile and a quarter: in what was quite a slowly run affair, the son of Shamardal passed his three rivals in short time and accelerated right away in the final furlong.

Below are the OMC (Opening, Midrace and Closing) sectionals for the race (at the top) and the individual runners (within the result table). They tell us that three of the quartet finished 'very fast', with Global Giant's final three furlongs almost 10% above par.

The '44441' running line (which, confusingly - sorry, is based on the five Call Points) tells us that Gosden's new recruit went from near two lengths last to nearly four lengths first in the final quarter mile. His Topspeed of 61 is unremarkable - a function of the tactical nature of this race - but an uplift of 27 is chunky and aggregates to 88. He might be one for the Easter Classic on All Weather Finals Day, though he'll need to find more to be competitive in that winter season centrepiece.

 

What does it mean: Sectional Percentage

Sectional percentage is the time taken within a part of the race, in percentage terms relative to the total race time. It tells us how a horse was ridden: did it do too much too soon, did it finish with more to give, or was it ridden optimally throughout? The answer is normally one of the first two, though to wildly varying degrees.

There are race sectional percentages and runner sectional percentages, the former comprised of the sectional times for the race leader at the end of each section.

To calculate sectional percentage, you need to know the following:

- Length of race (A)
- Length of section (B)
- Time to complete race (C)
- Time to complete section (D)

Using Global Giant's 2-0 sectional percentage (note that any sectional percentage where the section runs to the finish, as in this case, is also known as finishing speed percentage) from the image above, we can give values to A, B, C and D.

A = Length of race = 1m 1f 104 yds, or 2084 yards
B = Length of section = 2 furlongs, or 440 yards [we're looking at the 2-0 section]
C = Time to complete race = 118.4 seconds
D = Time to complete section = 22.1 seconds

The formula is as follows:

(100 x B x C)    /    (A x D)

Applying values gives us:

(100 x 440 x 118.4)    /    (2084 x 22.1)

or

5,209,600    /    46,056.4

= 113.1

Here is the Call Points view of the result, with that 2-0 sectional percentage displayed.

 

This is a simple sum which can easily be configured in a spreadsheet program like Excel:

 

In the image above I've highlighted the calculation cell so that you can see the Excel notation for the formula. [The 'overall distance' field is a calculation of Yards/220 to get furlongs]

Things to note about sectional percentage

When looking at the coloured rectangles, deviation from green means inefficiency with stronger blues and reds implying a highly inefficient effort and, therefore, an upgrade figure indicating a horse is capable of significantly better. In the example above, Global Giant gets an upgrade of 27; but in the example below, Will To Win's rider, Jack Mitchell, has produced an almost perfect effort from the front.

 

One important footnote: whilst sectional percentages - and their ratings expression, upgrades - can point towards good or bad rides, such consideration should always be undertaken in the context of any known run style preference the horse has, and/or the way the race panned out.

For example, Rab Havlin could not be said to have ridden a poor race on Global Giant for all that the horse is presumed by its upgrade figure to have much more to give. It must always be remembered that the objective for a jockey is not to get a '0' upgrade but rather to win the bloody race!

More next week...

Matt

p.s. I encourage you to interact with the data yourself. Check out last week's post for more on how to get started.

SotD Update, 6th to 11th January 2020

Two winners and a placer from five runners and 3.66pts profit are the kind of numbers we like to see at the end of a week for SotD. It doesn't always pan out that way, of course, but January has started steadily enough with three winners on the board already. We're going to need another three if not four to ensure a profitable month, so there'll be no resting on laurels here. 2020 is a clean slate, so we've achieved nothing yet.

Chris

Selections & Results : 06/01/19 to 11/01/20

06/01 : Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1
07/01 : Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1
08/01 : Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 9/1
09/01 : Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG non-runner
10/01 : Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG (8/3 after a 20p R4) WON at 6/4
11/01 : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1

06/01/20 to 11/01/20 :
2 winning bets from 5 = 40.00% SR
P/L: +3.00pts

January 2020 :
3 winner from 9 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +7.00pts
ROI = +77.78%

Overall:
659 winners from 2475 = 26.63% S.R
P/L: +538.87pts
ROI: +21.80%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.00 Southwell : Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Dwelt soon led narrowly, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m2f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, on what looks as poor a day of racing that I've seen for some time. I'm going to keep it really simple with a 7 yr old gelding who has made the frame in all bar one of his six efforts over fences, winning once along the way. He stays much further than this, doesn't mind soft ground, he's dropping in class and has been eased 2lb by the assessor since finishing 3rd LTO 39 days ago.

All of which suggests he should be fine with race conditions for his first visit to Doncaster, where trainer Alan King's chasers are 9 from 32 (28.1% SR) for 15.67pts (+49% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • 9/31 (29%) for 16.67pts (+53.8%) from males
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23.46pts (+123.5%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 3.33pts (+16.65%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 20.84pts (+109.7%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 6/24 (25%) for 18.89pts (+78.7%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.53pts (+81.7%) in Jan/Feb
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.66pts (+40.7%) on Gd to Soft in case the going eases
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.71pts (+34.2%) on soft ground...

...whilst 6-7 yr old males sent off shorter than 5/1 after a top 3 finish LTO are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 2.29pts (+28.6% ROI), all in the December to February period, 2 from 2 on Good to Soft and 1 from 1 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms were showing a movement towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: May Debestyman Win (Soon)

It hardly beholds me to criticise a fellow member of the media, but prompted by my friend Peter Ashmore, with whom I attended Kempton Park races on Saturday, and having reviewed the film of the finish of the Lanzarote Hurdle, I have to agree with him, writes Tony Stafford. After the horse we’d mutually dug out, Debestyman had jumped the second-last flight in front and was clearly going further away, there could have been little danger.

But then, edging left as they often do approaching the last flight in hurdle races there, unlike first time round when they cluster on the far side, Debestyman, an 8-1 shot carrying a little of Peter’s hard-earned made the first semblance of any mistake. He hit the flight and, jack-knifing to an extent that made it impossible for Micheal Nolan to stay aboard, the jockey duly went out the side door.

Meanwhile the nearest challenger, Notre Pari with Barry Geraghty in the J P McManus colours, also came down, in his case with an authentic heavy fall leaving Nicky Henderson, Geraghty’s more usual employer in the UK, to benefit for another of his major owners, Michael Buckley, with Burrows Edge, ridden by Nico de Boinville.

Sometimes Peter favours watching some of the “away” races in the small William Hill betting shop and returning there we both found it pretty galling to hear the winning punters coming up to the counter behind us saying: “He probably would have won anyway.”

Debestyman had three-mile form, so this 2m5f was in no way the limit to his stamina and such comments were as ridiculous as the average betting-shop punter from the 1970’s who used to stay all day and do his cash every afternoon. “No names!” The big firms must be wishing there were a few more of us (sorry, them) around never mind the public face of the “bet responsibly” rubric.

But returning to my point, Debestyman was edging slightly leftward and as horses clearly do have peripheral vision, he could hardly have missed the sight that confronted him immediately behind the obstacle. There, standing on a step ladder, was a photographer intent on the best shot. He got one. Peter was sure in the moment of his jumping, he must have been at least a little distracted, maybe even a shade frightened by the sight of a giant human within yards of him in mid-leap. Scrutiny of the film does not entirely rule out the possibility.

I’d love to see his shot. In the old days it would have been hawked around the Fleet Street picture desks – any unusual action like the completely unbalanced attitude of Debestyman at the time of the collision with the obstacle. At Kempton just at the side as you enter the track, they have a hurdle and a fence and they are both – even the smaller hurdle – very solid and big enough.

There were many more disadvantaged people after that incident than Peter and myself, for all it had turned a nice winning day for us into a small loss. But for owners The Plumpton Party and trainer Suzy Smith it was an unmitigated disaster.

She’s gone to one of the top tracks for a featured hurdle race on the back of a season where from 30 previous runs, she’d won two races. I saw the latest at first hand at Fakenham on New Year’s Day when Clondaw Bisto collected £5,490 for winning a handicap chase in good style.

Suzy, based on the old Lewes racecourse, has also won this season with Oscarsman, who earned £4,094 for his defeat of Bean in Trouble at local course Plumpton at the beginning of December.

She had gone to Tattersalls Cheltenham sale in May 2018, returning home with Irish point winner Debestyman for £28,500 and almost to the day of Saturday’s frustrating events, “did what it said on the tin” by winning a two and a half mile novice hurdle at Plumpton. A proper Plumpton Party indeed.

So then it was on to Kempton and a challenge for a big one. Before the day, a season’s endeavour had yielded a total of £21,061 in win and place earnings for the Smith stable. The owners collectively would have got around 65% of that; the trainer maybe enough to pay the diesel for a few trips to the races from her couple of grand share of the riches.

Saturday’s race was worth almost five thousand more alone at £26.5k and most annoyingly of all, as the Racing Post analysis glibly observed: “…he looked unlucky and the handicapper will take note, so this may have been an opportunity missed.”  That’s right, put him up 10lb and make sure he won’t win again. You have one good horse and opportunities are few and far between. Maybe this is a time for the handicapper to show some sympathy.

What I’d like to see is for the Horserace Writers and Photographers Association to identify the snapper concerned, confiscate his step ladder and offer Miss Smith and the owners an apology. Obviously nobody can tell whether the horse was distracted but there’s a fair chance he was.

It was interesting that Suzy Smith had a welcome winner at Fakenham on New Year’s Day, just before Waterproof, also the beneficiary of a last-flight exit, the fall of Bran when almost a length to the good.

Waterproof got a 127 rating which makes him a borderline possibility for the Boodles Handicap Hurdle (Fred Winter) but Shaun Keightley thinks we might need another win and say an extra 4lb to increase the chance of his making the cut.

It wasn’t the idea to brag about Ray Tooth’s Pour Moi gelding – not this week anyway! - but another nice one for the exiled sire, Wolf Prince, won again at Fairyhouse on Saturday and also has ‘our’ race in mind. It was simply to applaud the tiny but ultra-friendly Fakenham track, run so efficiently by David Hunter, for its excellent prize money.

Kempton’s card opened with what was in effect a Triumph Hurdle / Boodles warm-up and the first three finishers would all easily make the top half of the Boodles field. The winner Goa Lil (Twiston-Davies/ Munir, Souede); Lord Lamington (King/ Netherfield House Stud) and Fraser Island (Henderson/ Spence) will all be on at least 135, yet they were running for a scandalous £4,158. Waterproof, yet to show anything like their class, collected £5,198 for his four minutes around Norfolk.

Gary Moore had juvenile hurdle races on his mind after the Friday abandonment of Huntingdon, the course suffering a creeping flooding when the neighbouring streams suddenly encroached after it rained in mid-morning.

The loss of an obvious opportunity for his Triumph 7-1 joint-favourite Goshen was an irritation but nothing like his reaction to the news that the BHA would not re-schedule the race.

They argued a four-horse field was one factor while the availability of other options made it unnecessary. Gary seems set on a juvenile race at Ascot this Saturday when the penalty scales are only slightly different. At Huntingdon Goshen would have carried an 8lb penalty, whereas at Ascot it is 10lb. The Ascot race, Gary will have noted, is worth less than half the value of the abandoned Chatteris Fen Hurdle.

Interestingly, Moore, who was a frequent in-and-out visitor to our sometime perch in the little William Hill shop, looked thunderous most of the time. Maybe he was remembering that 12 months ago, he ran the similarly-penalised Beat The Judge in the same race and he was a well-beaten third behind two unpenalised rivals.

Beat The Judge, around 20lb inferior to Goshen on the Flat, has never won since, but remains rated around 140. Goshen is on 143 and I reckon on what I’ve seen of this highly-talented stayer he’d give Waterproof at least double the official amount between them and still kick him into touch.

My favourite moment from Saturday, apart from another fantastic performance from a Hughie Morrison bumper filly, Maridadi, a five-length victress at Wetherby, was further proof that three miles around Kempton takes some getting in soft ground.

In the handicap chase, On The Blind Side ran a brave race but was anchored by 11st12lb, still gallantly running on to pinch third on the line. The winner was Miss Millie Wonnacott, claiming 7lb on the Neil Mulholland bottom-weight Fingerontheswitch. Her allowance brought the 10-year-old’s weight down to 9st8lb and therefore he was receiving 32lb from Alan Spence’s horse. Up the straight there was only one horse running!

Sharp track isn’t it?

- TS

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.

That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..

  • 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
  • and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today's jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)

Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
  • 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
  • 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
  • 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
  • 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D...

...whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th January 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.00 Warwick : George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG 16th at 4/1 (Prominent, lost place 3f out)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 8-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Since mid-September, which was the last time of any his seven rivals won a race, this 6 yr old gelding has had ten consecutive top 4 finishes (9 in the first three home), culminating in a win over this class, course and distance ten days ago.

That win took him to 4 wins and 5 places from 14 starts over the track and trip, including..

  • 4 wins, 4 places from 11 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 in blinkers
  • and 3 wins, 3 places from 7 under today's jockey, Jonathan Fisher (all at C6, whilst wearing blinkers)

Moreover, since the start of 2016 in A/W handicaps here at Southwell, horses sent off at odds ranging from 11/10 to 7/1 within 30 days of an LTO win at the same class, course and distance are 37 from 112 (33% SR) for 37.1pts (+33.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 31/90 (34.4%) for 40.7pts (+45.2%) from male runners
  • 24/72 (33.3%) for 28.4pts (+39.5%) at Class 6
  • 19/51 (37.3%) for 26.4pts (+51.8%) during January/February
  • 17/37 (45.9%) for 44.4pts (+119.9%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 15/33 (45.5%) for 26.05pts (+78.9%) with 6/7 yr olds
  • 14/35 (40%) for 19pts (+54.3%) within 10 days of their last run
  • and 5/14 (35.7%) for 16.7pts (+119.4%) over this 7f C&D...

...whilst Class 6 males racing over 6/7f during December to February are 6 from 13 (46.2% SR) for 23.1pts (+177.4% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2020

Friday's pick was...

2.00 Sedgefield : Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG WON 6/4 (Chased leader, ridden between last 2, 2 lengths down last, stayed on to lead towards finish)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 18-runner, Class 5, National Hunt Flat race for 4-6yo over 2m on Soft ground worth £2,599 to the winner...

Why?...

Matt in place of Chris for one day only, and we'll be groping in the dark on Saturday as we side with an unraced horse in a field of unraced horses!

Stats to the fore then...

First up, trainer Harry Fry has an excellent record in NHF races. He's 20 from 72 (17 more placed) for +12.08 (A/E 1.17, IV 2.63) in the last two years.

With horses making their career bow, he is 11 from 42, 8 further places (26% win, 45% placed) for +6.31 (A/E 1.16, IV 3.35) in the same time frame.

To remind you, A/E greater than 1 suggests the market has yet to catch up with the angle; IV greater than 1 means something happens more often than chance - in this case 2.63x and 3.35x as often as chance.

Fry is enjoying the good times again after a desperate season and a half. In the last 30 days, he's won ten times from 33 starters (30%, +16.4, A/E 1.22, IV 2.91).

And he's getting warmer rather than cooler by the look of it, as his 14 day figures are 7/20 (35%, +17.52, A/E 1.46, IV 3.28)

Much of the good stuff in the past month has been achieved with today's jockey, Sean Bowen, the partnership winning with eight of 22 in that time (+23.67, A/E 1.52, IV 3.5). Bowen is an extremely talented - and strong - jockey.

This chap is a son of George Vancouver, his very first bumper runner. The trainer and, to a lesser degree, jockey angle(s) justify the statistical straw clutching...

...so it's...a 1pt win bet on George Valentine @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Unibet & Boylesports at 8pm Friday evening (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 11th Jan 2020

More LIVE ITV racing action this Saturday as the cameras head to Warwick for the Classic Chase, plus they are also at Kempton Park with the Lanzarote Hurdle their main event.

As normal we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

2.05 – Unibet Silviniaco Conti Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/6 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
5/6 – Winning favourites
5/6 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Had won over fences at the track
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 5/2
Top Notch won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2019, 2017 & 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Nicky Henderson has a 37% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 24% record with his chasers at the track

 

2.40 – Unibet Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

18/18 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
16/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/18 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
13/18 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
13/18 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
12/18 – Irish (7) or French (5) bred
12/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/18 – Carried 10-11 or less
11/18 – Aged 6 years-old
9/18 – Placed favourites
8/18 – Won last time out
6/18 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/18 -  Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (38 runnings) 33 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1

 

3.15 – Try Unibet New Uniboosts Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just 7 previous runnings
7/7 – Didn’t win last time out
6/7 – Had run at the track before
6/7 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
6/7 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
5/7 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
5/7 – Unplaced last time out
5/7 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/7 – Placed favourites
4/7 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
4/7 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
2/7 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/7 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 7 is 9/2
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

 

Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


1.50 –
McCoy Contractors 2020 Construction News Award Finalist Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

12/12 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
12/12 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/12 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
10/12 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
10/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/12 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/12 – Aged 7 years-old
8/12 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
8/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Irish bred
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/12 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/12 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4

 

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f ITV4

13/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
13/13 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
12/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/13 – Irish bred
8/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – Placed favourites
6/13 – Aged 5 years-old
2/13 – Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 5)
2/13 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 10/3

 

3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

14/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/14 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
11/14 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
11/14 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
10/14 – Officially rated between 129-140
10/14 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
9/14 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
9/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
9/14 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/14 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
8/14 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
8/14 –  Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/14 – Favourites placed
7/14 – Returned a double-figure price
6/14 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
Impulsive Star (8/1) won the race in 2019
Milansbar (12/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 11/1

 

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

14/14 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
13/14 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Carried 11-0 or less
12/14 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/14 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
11/14 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
11/14 – Officially rated between 126-142
11/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Placed favourites
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/14 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/14 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/14 – Winning favourites
8 of the last 9 winners were aged 8 or younger
4 of the last 6 winners were ridden by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 10th January 2020

Thursday's pick was...

1.10 Leicester : Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting abandoned : waterlogged track)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft (G to S in places) ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we like horse, jockey & trainer under today's conditions, so let's look at each!

The horse : This 8 yr old gelding actually won this race last year and loves coming here to tackle the fences, having won three times and placed on a further two occasions from just six efforts in handicap chases here, including...

  • 3/5 (60%) for 4.15pts (+83%) on Soft/Gd to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) for 4.15pts (+83%) in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 3/3 (100%) for 6.15pts (+205%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.71pts (+14.1%) under jockey Henry Brooke (more on him very shortly)
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2.88pts (+72%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 1.71pts (+42.6%) on Soft ground

The Jockey : Henry Brooke also has a great record here, winning 22 of 88 (25% SR) handicap chases at this venue over the last seven years, generating 59.9pts profit at an impressive 68% ROI, largely thanks to the following achieved under today's conditions...

  • 22/81 (27.2%) for 66.9pts (+82.6%) on male runners
  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 66.1pts (+114%) with 6-9 yr olds
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 6.39pts (+21.3%) over 2m3.5f to 2m4f
  • 4/10 (40%) for 1.69pts (+16.9%) for trainer Brian Ellison (see below)
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.14pts (+187.7%) in January

and the trainer : Brian Ellison, who for one reason or another doesn't send too many handicap chasers to Sedgefield, despite it only being a 60-mile journey from his yard in North Yorkshire. We can discount the travelling aspect for his lack of visits here and it certainly isn't because he can't get winners here either.

In the last four years, his Sedgefield handicap chase record at odds of Evens to 15/4 stands at 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 6.68pts (+41.8% ROI) profit. All 16 were male and include...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 5.69pts (+56.9%) on Gd to Soft/Soft
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 5.37pts (+89.5%) in Jan/Feb
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 4.69pts (+66.9%) using Henry Brooke's services
  • 3/5 (60%) for 6.21pts (+124.2%) over course and distance
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 3pts (+42.9%) at Class 3...

...and this 3-pronged approach suggests...a 1pt win bet on Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Hills (but please check your BOG status first) at 8.10am on Friday and was still offered by Bet365 at 9.05am. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.45 Kempton : Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 9/1 (Prominent, ridden over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m  on Good to Soft ground worth £6,108 to the winner...

Why?...

Non-runner! Meeting abandoned...

...but it would have been...a 1pt win bet on Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Unibet & Hills (but please check your BOG status first) at 8.10am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!