Never say never. I had lunch last week with a good friend, who also happens to be the owner of this website and editor of these weekly offerings, writes Tony Stafford. Analysing the state of play with his various syndicated horses, he said: ”Over the next few months we will be cutting back and moving on most of the horses. Recently one was put down and another retired. One thing I can tell you, I won’t be buying any more stores.”
Project forward a few days and at Taunton on Saturday, the four-year-old filly Coquelicot (French translation “Poppy”) started 1-2 for the concluding bumper and romped away from 13 opponents to win by five and a half lengths. The daughter of Soldier of Fortune, bought by his trainer Anthony Honeyball with Matt Bisogno (Italian translation “need”), as well as Ron Huggins and Ryan Mahon on the inspection committee, as a yearling at Arqana in November 2017 for €26k has probably caused some re-evaluation after this spectacular win.
I say spectacular advisedly. The runner-up was a Paul Nicholls debutant, a year older than Coquelicot and almost three times (68k) as costly. The extended distances back to the fifth in a field of 14 were 4.75, 7 and 5.5 lengths.
The form of her first two runs, second places at Warwick to a stable-companion and then Newbury in fillies-only Junior bumpers, has not been endorsed by either winner on their next starts; but, in fairness, in each case running with promise stepping up to Listed class. But the third horse from Newbury, Hughie Morrison’s Maridadi, five lengths behind the Honeyball horse over a mile and a half, won by that margin at Wetherby last weekend.
Maridadi’s victory was one bright note in Matt’s gloomy mood when we met in time for the special breakfast menu in the Well Street Kitchen, London E9, just before the 11 a.m. cut-off point. (I note McDonalds have now altered their Breakfast times to 11 a.m. to fall in line with the Kitchen).
When Matt first told me about that purchase and the fact he was syndicating her among some of his usual adherents, he was particularly excited about her pedigree and the fact that she would have a residual stud value even if she proved to be of limited ability.
She is a daughter of the dual purpose, Ireland-based Coolmore National Hunt stallion, Soldier of Fortune, himself Irish Derby winner and Arc third for Coolmore and Aidan O’Brien. His best two Flat-race products are both owned by Alan Spence. Fire Fighting and Soldier In Action were (and in the case of the former, still is) trained by Mark Johnston. Soldier In Action also took high rank as a young hurdler with Nicky Henderson.
The real gem in Coquelicot’s pedigree is the fact that she is half-sister to Heartbreak City, the four-length winner for Tony Martin of the 2016 Tote-Ebor and then next time out runner-up by a head to Almandin in the Melbourne Cup in which Big Orange and Wicklow Brave finished miles behind.
There are plenty of jumping performers close up in her pedigree and I’m sure Matt and his cohorts, not least the trainer who does so well with bumper horses, will have ambitions of bigger and better things. The way she strode on up the home straight at Taunton suggests, when she goes hurdling, two and a half miles will not trouble her, but she looks to have the speed to cope with shorter. Who knows, maybe she could even switch over to the Flat later in her career. I’m sure Matt wouldn’t mind winning a million-pound Ebor in a couple of years.
As I said earlier, Matt, never say never. As Mr Bisogno hovered over the counter while generously settling the bill on our departure from the Kitchen last week, he confided that while bisogno means “need” in Italian, it is more colloquially the term used when a person is desperate for the toilet. Matt seemed desperate for a change of luck with his horses. He got it. Poppy was certainly a friend in need.
As is often the case with my peregrinations, I happened totally accidentally on Coquelicot and her race and wouldn’t have noticed it (didn’t see it live) if I hadn’t been on an early-morning quest to get translations for some of the more obscure French names, usually for the AQPS-bred animals that are so liberally sprinkled in UK and Irish jump racing.
It was sparked by the clash between Defi Du Seuil (Challenge of (or on?) the threshold) and Un De Sceaux (One of the seals, no not the mammal) in the Clarence House Stakes. I agree with most received wisdom that even if Altior can be brought back from his mid-season misfortunes, I’d expect Defi Du Seuil to beat him in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. We also had Domaine De L’Isle (self-explanatory) winning at Ascot for the underrated Sean Curran while the disappointing Pic D’Orhy (snow-covered peaks of Mount Orhy in the Pyrenees) flopped behind Thomas Darby.
Over at Haydock, Le Ligerien (person from the Loire basin in France) won the opener from Flamboyant Joyaux (we can all work that one out) with Vengeur (avenger) De Guye (who knows who that is?) a well-beaten fourth.
Then yesterday at Thurles, perhaps my favourite of the weekend’s Frenchies, La Lavandiere (the washer-woman) was unplaced.
It’s one thing to have French horses running. It’s another to pronounce the names through a two-mile race with any degree of accuracy. Simon Holt, as one would expect, was spot on with Sceaux and Seuil, but others on the BHA commentating strength are less secure. No names, as Mr Bolger might have observed.
One name I will put forward for special admiration is Sky Sports Racing’s French expert Laurent Barbarin, whose knowledge of the sport in his native country is exceptional. He is the biggest plus – apart from the wonderful Alex Hammond – of the deal which prised Irish racing away from At The Races (now Sky) forcing them to put major emphasis on France. He is clearly vastly experienced in all facets of the sport and his initial hesitancy in his use of English is now much more assured, at the same time highly enjoyable with his semi-Inspector Clouseau delivery.
This morning I was recapping an event of January last year when the horse that according to Barbarin was “France’s best four-year-old hurdler of 2018” came to Plumpton and won in a canter. Unfortunately Master Dino, sportingly aiming at Cheltenham after a stellar two seasons’ racing in France – 18 races and nine wins exclusively at Auteuil – suffered an injury during the race and has not been sighted since. Can you imagine, running a top-class horse 18 times over jumps in 20 months? Still it was shocking luck for Guillaume Macaire and Messrs Munir/Souede that one run outside his comfort zone would have such repercussions.
Next Saturday all roads as the clichés always used to say, lead to Cheltenham and the Trials Meeting. This is my time for the annual homage to Tangognat’s win in the race which is now all of 34 years ago. Sadly he never reached his full potential, but I noticed that Terry Ramsden, who bought into the horse with me before the race, had his 68th birthday yesterday so hopefully is still going strong though no longer participating in ownership.
Did I hear you say: “That’s nothing?” Well, amazingly, nowadays it isn’t. Two Kentucky stud owners of my acquaintance, Alice Chandler of Mill Ridge Farm (at whose pre-Keeneland sales party I first met Virginia Kraft Payson, owner of St Jovite) and Josephine Abercrombie of Pin Oak Stud, both celebrated their 94th birthdays on the same day last week.
Without my meeting Alice, Jim Bolger would never have trained Virginia’s 12-length Irish Derby and six-length King George hero. Ms Amercrombie had success with some classy horses trained by Sir Mark Prescott. Earlier in her varied life she had been a highly-successful boxing promoter in the United Stakes. Two (or if you add their younger counterpart Virginia) three formidable women and all breeders of top horses. Long may they enjoy their later years and they certainly give hope to those of us coming up in the fast lane towards that time of life!
- TS
Stat of the Day, 21st January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoMonday's pick was...
3.30 Newcastle : Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Raced wide, chased leaders in 3rd, left in 2nd at 6th, hit next, lost 2nd 3 out, rallied into 2nd again between last 2, no chance with winner)
Tuesday's pick runs in the...
1.30 Exeter :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG
...in a 5-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner...
Why?...
Not a lot of racing to actually choose from today, but this one looks too long to ignore. A winner of two of his last six starts, this 7 yr old gelding scored on his penultimate outing over similar trip and going to today at Ffos Las, ahead of finding the step up to Class 2 too tough at Ascot last time out (a month ago).
He's had a short rest and now drops in class and gets weight all round to run at a venue his trainer has done well at in recent years, as Evan Williams' horses have won 19 of 83 (22.9% SR) for profits of 66.8pts (+80.4% ROI) here at Exeter over the past five years.
I could actually draw stumps there and say that's a good enough reason, but SotD wouldn't be SotD without some drilling down into the base stat, would it? So, here goes, from those original 83 runners, they are...
...whilst males competing for a handicap worth £0-10k are 7 from 14 (50% SR) for 34.6pts (+247.1% ROI) after 26-90 days rest, including 3/4 in Novice handicaps, 2/5 at Class 3 and 2/5 over fences...
...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Exeter
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Monday Musings: Needs Must…
/in Monday Musings/by mattbisognoNever say never. I had lunch last week with a good friend, who also happens to be the owner of this website and editor of these weekly offerings, writes Tony Stafford. Analysing the state of play with his various syndicated horses, he said: ”Over the next few months we will be cutting back and moving on most of the horses. Recently one was put down and another retired. One thing I can tell you, I won’t be buying any more stores.”
Project forward a few days and at Taunton on Saturday, the four-year-old filly Coquelicot (French translation “Poppy”) started 1-2 for the concluding bumper and romped away from 13 opponents to win by five and a half lengths. The daughter of Soldier of Fortune, bought by his trainer Anthony Honeyball with Matt Bisogno (Italian translation “need”), as well as Ron Huggins and Ryan Mahon on the inspection committee, as a yearling at Arqana in November 2017 for €26k has probably caused some re-evaluation after this spectacular win.
I say spectacular advisedly. The runner-up was a Paul Nicholls debutant, a year older than Coquelicot and almost three times (68k) as costly. The extended distances back to the fifth in a field of 14 were 4.75, 7 and 5.5 lengths.
The form of her first two runs, second places at Warwick to a stable-companion and then Newbury in fillies-only Junior bumpers, has not been endorsed by either winner on their next starts; but, in fairness, in each case running with promise stepping up to Listed class. But the third horse from Newbury, Hughie Morrison’s Maridadi, five lengths behind the Honeyball horse over a mile and a half, won by that margin at Wetherby last weekend.
Maridadi’s victory was one bright note in Matt’s gloomy mood when we met in time for the special breakfast menu in the Well Street Kitchen, London E9, just before the 11 a.m. cut-off point. (I note McDonalds have now altered their Breakfast times to 11 a.m. to fall in line with the Kitchen).
When Matt first told me about that purchase and the fact he was syndicating her among some of his usual adherents, he was particularly excited about her pedigree and the fact that she would have a residual stud value even if she proved to be of limited ability.
She is a daughter of the dual purpose, Ireland-based Coolmore National Hunt stallion, Soldier of Fortune, himself Irish Derby winner and Arc third for Coolmore and Aidan O’Brien. His best two Flat-race products are both owned by Alan Spence. Fire Fighting and Soldier In Action were (and in the case of the former, still is) trained by Mark Johnston. Soldier In Action also took high rank as a young hurdler with Nicky Henderson.
The real gem in Coquelicot’s pedigree is the fact that she is half-sister to Heartbreak City, the four-length winner for Tony Martin of the 2016 Tote-Ebor and then next time out runner-up by a head to Almandin in the Melbourne Cup in which Big Orange and Wicklow Brave finished miles behind.
There are plenty of jumping performers close up in her pedigree and I’m sure Matt and his cohorts, not least the trainer who does so well with bumper horses, will have ambitions of bigger and better things. The way she strode on up the home straight at Taunton suggests, when she goes hurdling, two and a half miles will not trouble her, but she looks to have the speed to cope with shorter. Who knows, maybe she could even switch over to the Flat later in her career. I’m sure Matt wouldn’t mind winning a million-pound Ebor in a couple of years.
As I said earlier, Matt, never say never. As Mr Bisogno hovered over the counter while generously settling the bill on our departure from the Kitchen last week, he confided that while bisogno means “need” in Italian, it is more colloquially the term used when a person is desperate for the toilet. Matt seemed desperate for a change of luck with his horses. He got it. Poppy was certainly a friend in need.
As is often the case with my peregrinations, I happened totally accidentally on Coquelicot and her race and wouldn’t have noticed it (didn’t see it live) if I hadn’t been on an early-morning quest to get translations for some of the more obscure French names, usually for the AQPS-bred animals that are so liberally sprinkled in UK and Irish jump racing.
It was sparked by the clash between Defi Du Seuil (Challenge of (or on?) the threshold) and Un De Sceaux (One of the seals, no not the mammal) in the Clarence House Stakes. I agree with most received wisdom that even if Altior can be brought back from his mid-season misfortunes, I’d expect Defi Du Seuil to beat him in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. We also had Domaine De L’Isle (self-explanatory) winning at Ascot for the underrated Sean Curran while the disappointing Pic D’Orhy (snow-covered peaks of Mount Orhy in the Pyrenees) flopped behind Thomas Darby.
Over at Haydock, Le Ligerien (person from the Loire basin in France) won the opener from Flamboyant Joyaux (we can all work that one out) with Vengeur (avenger) De Guye (who knows who that is?) a well-beaten fourth.
Then yesterday at Thurles, perhaps my favourite of the weekend’s Frenchies, La Lavandiere (the washer-woman) was unplaced.
It’s one thing to have French horses running. It’s another to pronounce the names through a two-mile race with any degree of accuracy. Simon Holt, as one would expect, was spot on with Sceaux and Seuil, but others on the BHA commentating strength are less secure. No names, as Mr Bolger might have observed.
One name I will put forward for special admiration is Sky Sports Racing’s French expert Laurent Barbarin, whose knowledge of the sport in his native country is exceptional. He is the biggest plus – apart from the wonderful Alex Hammond – of the deal which prised Irish racing away from At The Races (now Sky) forcing them to put major emphasis on France. He is clearly vastly experienced in all facets of the sport and his initial hesitancy in his use of English is now much more assured, at the same time highly enjoyable with his semi-Inspector Clouseau delivery.
This morning I was recapping an event of January last year when the horse that according to Barbarin was “France’s best four-year-old hurdler of 2018” came to Plumpton and won in a canter. Unfortunately Master Dino, sportingly aiming at Cheltenham after a stellar two seasons’ racing in France – 18 races and nine wins exclusively at Auteuil – suffered an injury during the race and has not been sighted since. Can you imagine, running a top-class horse 18 times over jumps in 20 months? Still it was shocking luck for Guillaume Macaire and Messrs Munir/Souede that one run outside his comfort zone would have such repercussions.
Next Saturday all roads as the clichés always used to say, lead to Cheltenham and the Trials Meeting. This is my time for the annual homage to Tangognat’s win in the race which is now all of 34 years ago. Sadly he never reached his full potential, but I noticed that Terry Ramsden, who bought into the horse with me before the race, had his 68th birthday yesterday so hopefully is still going strong though no longer participating in ownership.
Did I hear you say: “That’s nothing?” Well, amazingly, nowadays it isn’t. Two Kentucky stud owners of my acquaintance, Alice Chandler of Mill Ridge Farm (at whose pre-Keeneland sales party I first met Virginia Kraft Payson, owner of St Jovite) and Josephine Abercrombie of Pin Oak Stud, both celebrated their 94th birthdays on the same day last week.
Without my meeting Alice, Jim Bolger would never have trained Virginia’s 12-length Irish Derby and six-length King George hero. Ms Amercrombie had success with some classy horses trained by Sir Mark Prescott. Earlier in her varied life she had been a highly-successful boxing promoter in the United Stakes. Two (or if you add their younger counterpart Virginia) three formidable women and all breeders of top horses. Long may they enjoy their later years and they certainly give hope to those of us coming up in the fast lane towards that time of life!
- TS
Stat of the Day, 20th January 2020
/in Horse Racing Blog/by mattbisognoSaturday's pick was...
7.15 Chelmsford : Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on inside final furlong, no impression, went 3rd post)
Monday's pick runs in the...
3.30 Newcastle :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG
...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...
Why?...
Well, this horse's name just kept on cropping up in all my shortlist reports, so here's just a brief overview of a handful of them...
1. This 12 yr old gelding may be getting on, but he's still running well and is 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.88pts (+60.6% ROI) in handicap chases, including 4/8 under today's jockey Danny Cook, 3/10 at Class 4 and 2/3 at today's trip.
2. He's by Desert King, whose offspring are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 71.3pts (+60.4% ROI) in handicap chases over the last four years, including 14/50 (28%) for 53.55pts (+107.1%) at trips shorter than 2m2f.
3. Jockey Danny Cook is 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 8.55pts (+22.5% ROI) over the past 30 days, trainer Sue Smith is 9/33 (27.3%) for 13.55pts (+41.1%) on the same period, whilst together they are 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.55pts (+94%) including 6/12 950%) for 20pts (+166.4%) in chases.
4. More longer-term than just the last month or so, Sue Smith is 28/89 (31.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+100.9% ROI) in handicaps during January since the start of 2016 from which, soft ground runners are 14/36 (38.9%) for 50.7pts (+140.7%)
5. And finally for today, Sue's last 50 handicap chasers to be sent off at Evens to 13/2 here at Newcastle have generated 14 victories (28% SR) and 12.6pts profit at an ROI of 25.2% and they include the following of relevance today...
...whilst during Nov-Jan, Danny and Sue are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 6.04pts (+31.8% ROI)at Class 3/4 on Soft ground, including 2/4 (50%) for 6.08pts (+152%) over course and distance...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Stat of the Day, 20th January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoSaturday's pick was...
7.15 Chelmsford : Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on inside final furlong, no impression, went 3rd post)
Monday's pick runs in the...
3.30 Newcastle :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG
...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...
Why?...
Well, this horse's name just kept on cropping up in all my shortlist reports, so here's just a brief overview of a handful of them...
1. This 12 yr old gelding may be getting on, but he's still running well and is 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.88pts (+60.6% ROI) in handicap chases, including 4/8 under today's jockey Danny Cook, 3/10 at Class 4 and 2/3 at today's trip.
2. He's by Desert King, whose offspring are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 71.3pts (+60.4% ROI) in handicap chases over the last four years, including 14/50 (28%) for 53.55pts (+107.1%) at trips shorter than 2m2f.
3. Jockey Danny Cook is 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 8.55pts (+22.5% ROI) over the past 30 days, trainer Sue Smith is 9/33 (27.3%) for 13.55pts (+41.1%) on the same period, whilst together they are 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.55pts (+94%) including 6/12 950%) for 20pts (+166.4%) in chases.
4. More longer-term than just the last month or so, Sue Smith is 28/89 (31.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+100.9% ROI) in handicaps during January since the start of 2016 from which, soft ground runners are 14/36 (38.9%) for 50.7pts (+140.7%)
5. And finally for today, Sue's last 50 handicap chasers to be sent off at Evens to 13/2 here at Newcastle have generated 14 victories (28% SR) and 12.6pts profit at an ROI of 25.2% and they include the following of relevance today...
...whilst during Nov-Jan, Danny and Sue are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 6.04pts (+31.8% ROI)at Class 3/4 on Soft ground, including 2/4 (50%) for 6.08pts (+152%) over course and distance...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
SotD Update, 13th to 18th January 2020
/in Horse Racing Blog/by mattbisognoNo wins from six last week was a mid-month setback, to be honest. All six ran as though they had chances, but none went well enough in the closing stages to mount any serious challenges.
It's only one week in isolation, we're still up for the month so far and we've still got 11 chances to land the 3 or 4 winners I'm searching for before February.
Stay tuned and let's see how that goes!
Chris
Selections & Results : 13/01/19 to 18/01/20
13/01 : Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/2
14/01 : Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1
15/01 : Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG 8th at 9/4
16/01 : Oscar's Leader @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 15/8
17/01 : She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/2
18/01 : Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2
13/01/20 to 18/01/20 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts
January 2020 :
3 winners from 15 = 20.00% SR
P/L: +1.00pts
ROI = +6.67%
Overall:
659 winners from 2481 = 26.56% S.R
P/L: +532.87pts
ROI: +21.48%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
And here is the overview for 2019
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
Click here for more details.
Stat of the Day, 18th January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoFriday's pick was...
6.45 Newcastle : She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in 3rd, pushed along halfway, ridden and one pace over 1f out)
Saturday's pick runs in the...
7.15 Chelmsford :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £5,434 to the winner...
Why?...
This 4 yr old gelding has finished 121 in his last three starts, culminating in a course and distance win here 16 days ago under today's jockey Ben Curtis despite losing his whip in the closing stages, taking the horse's record on the A/W to include of relevance today...
Meanwhile, over the last seven months, jockey Ben is 5 from 10 (50% SR) for 40.98pts (+409.8% ROI) when riding for trainer George Scott, including...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by SkyBet & Unibet at 8.10am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Sat TV Trends: 18th Jan 2020
/in Trends/by mattbisognoIt’s off to Haydock and Ascot this Saturday for the LIVE ITV action with the Clarence House Chase and Peter Marsh Chase the two big highlights – like all big race days we've got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle…….use these to help whittle down the final runners and find the best winning profiles of past winners.
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)
1.50 – bet365 Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
10/10 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
9/10 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
9/10 – From the top 4 in the betting
9/10 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
8/10 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
7/10 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
7/10 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (3) in their last race
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Won their last race
6/10 – Winning Favourites
4/10 – French bred
3/10 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/10 – Aged 6 years-old
2/10 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/10 - Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/10 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Magic Light (15/8 fav) won the race in 2019
2.25 – Matchbook Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4
10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
9/12 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
9/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/12 – Officially rated 139 or higher
9/12 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/12 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/12 – French bred
6/12 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
6/12 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Aged 6 years-old
5/12 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/12 – Trained by David Pipe
3/12 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/12 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/12 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/12 – Favourites (1 co)
Ballymoy (4/1) won the race in 2019
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock
3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4
13/13 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
11/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/13 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Either French (4) or Irish (7) bred
10/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
9/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/13 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/13 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/13 – Aged 8 or younger
6/13 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/13 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Winning distance - 6 lengths or further
5/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 5 runnings)
2/13 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Winning Favourites
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter
3.35 – Matchbook Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV
17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (5 winners)
10/17 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets, 2019 Altior)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (29 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 10/3
Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham
Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)
2.05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV
13/13 – Aged 7 or younger
13/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
12/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Aged 5 years-old
7/13 – Winning Favourites
6/13 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/13 - Ran at Haydock last time out
3/13 – French bred
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/13 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby
2.40 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV
16/16 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
15/16 – Aged 8 or older
15/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
14/16 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/16 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
11/16 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Won at Haydock previously
11/16 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/16 – Favourites unplaced
9/16 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
8/16 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
8/16 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/16 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/16 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/16 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/16 – Trained by Sue Smith
3/16 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/16 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/16 – Won their last race
2/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1
3.15 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
14/14 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
14/14 – Favourites placed in the top 3
12/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/14 - From the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Finished in the top three in their last race
11/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
11/14 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
11/14 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/14 – Officially Rated 150 or higher
11/14 – Either French (3) or Irish (8) bred
10/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (6) last time out
8/14 – Aged 7 or younger
8/14 – Winning Favourites
4/14 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/14 – Won their last race
1/14 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
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Stat of the Day, 17th January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoThursday's pick was...
1.10 Market Rasen : Oscar's Leader @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, ridden and weakened before last)
Friday's pick runs in the...
6.45 Newcastle :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG
...in a 7-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...
Why?...
This 3 yr old filly isn't an obvious pick on form, but she has been well rested (12 weeks) ahead of returning in the type of contest her trainer does well in.
Taking a fairly pared-back simple approach today, my way in is that John (JJ) Quinn + Newcastle A/W hcps + 5-8 furlongs + Evens to 8/1 = 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+58.5% ROI) over the last three years, including at play today...
...whilst Class 6 runners competing against 6-11 rivals for less than £4,000 during December to April are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+221.2% ROI)...
...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Friday morning and was widely available by 8.35am (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Stat of the Day, 16th January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoWednesday's pick was...
2.30 Wolverhampton : Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG 8th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, ridden and every chance 2f out, weakened approaching final furlong)
Thursday's pick runs in the...
1.10 Market Rasen :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Oscar's Leader @ 7/2 BOG
...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...
Why?...
Once again the weather has played its part, removing three of the top four selections on my daily shortlist and whilst that made picking today's selection a little easier, it's also another positive for posting the picks on the morning of the race. Otherwise, we could very well have had two non-runners yesterday and today.
So, where are we? A 7 yr old gelding yet to win in nine starts, that's hardly inspiring on paper, but he did produce his best effort for some time (if not ever), when third last time out six weeks ago on his debut for new handler Jennie Candlish.
Jennie's no mug, I'll tell you and she's very adept at getting the best out of what is a pretty small string of runners, so I'm bowing to her superior knowledge for stepping this one up in trip by a good 6 furlongs to run here. The obvious positives of him coming here today are that he's used to running on soft ground (6 of his 9 starts so far) and the yard have done well here of late from a small number of entries, as...
...Jennie Candlish + Market Rasen + last 4 years = 8/35 (22.9% SR) for 56.45pts (+161.3% ROI) and these include of relevance today...
...now, some of the above P/L and ROI figures are somewhat skewed by a 25/1 winner that paid 46.55 at Betfair SP, but that doesn't detract from Jennie's excellent strike rates here under the above conditions and filtering down from the top we also see that 7 yr old, Class 4, handicappers sent off at 2/1 to 7/1 are three from four (the fourth was a runner-up beaten by three quarters of a length) with that 75% strike rate producing 13.73pts at an ROI of 343.4%...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Oscar's Leader @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & Hills at 8.10am Thursday morning with plenty of 10/3 knocking about (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Market Rasen
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Stat of the Day, 15th January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoTuesday's pick was...
3.15 Doncaster : Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Tracked leading pair, reminders before 13th, weakened next, tailed off )
Wednesday's pick runs in the...
2.30 Wolverhampton :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG
...in a 10-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...
Why?...
Because Plumpton was abandoned!
So I'm going to keep this fairly short (and hopefully sweet) as Plan B swings into in operation this morning, after the race I'd done most prep on fell foul of the weather, turning us towards an in-form 4 yr old gelding who has finished 2211 in her last four starts, the only of her races where today's jockey Shane Kelly has been in situ.
All four races were here at Wolverhampton with defeats by just 0.5 and 0.75 lengths were followed by a victory by a neck, all over 7f. This suggests she struggled to see out that trip and was dropped down to today's 6f last time out, where she got home by a good three lengths.
James Eustace's yard isn't the busiest at any time really (112 runners in each of 2018 & 2019), but his horses are 3 from 10 (30% SR) for 5.93pts (+59.3% ROI) over the last four weeks and with another two making the frame, I'd guess they're going pretty well right now.
Again another small sample size, but since 2015, James' handicappers sent off at Evens to 11/2 (surely that's us today?) 5 from 9 (55.6% SR) for 13.2pts (+146.9% ROI), including...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Reasoned @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Wolverhampton
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!