It's Wednesday and time for another edition of Clock Watcher, a weekly roundup of interesting performances from a sectional timing perspective. In focus this week is an impressive middle distance newcomer to the Nottinghamshire beach; a perfect example of upgrades in action; and an explanation of the concept of OMC. Plus, a new column in your Gold form denoting sectional upgrades. Woof!
We start with a couple of noteworthy efforts on a deeper-than-normal Southwell circuit last Thursday. While geegeez.co.uk eyes were on Forseti, one of our syndicate horses, who was recording a double at the track, clock watchers were treated to a brace of striking efforts for contrasting reasons.
One for the All 'Weather'
The first was in a three-runner Class 3 three-year-old handicap over a mile, where Forseti's stablemate at Mick Appleby's yard, Merryweather, was given a peach from the front by Ali Rawlinson. Where he'd been patient aboard Forseti half an hour earlier, riding our lad efficiently and coming through late, here he took ownership of the pace, dictating a pedestrian overture.
Thereafter, Rawlinson and his willing partner turned the screw, accelerating markedly in the final three furlongs. His Topspeed figure of 45 is moderate but an upgrade of a whopping 43 gives him a composite score of a more than useful 88. This is a fine illustration of how understanding how the race was run in a more objective, granular manner gives us a handle on what might have otherwise been considered a muddling affair.
The race time was unimpressive - 1.1 seconds slower than Forseti in the preceding contest - but the finishing effort of all three runners, most obviously the winner, was rapid. That final three furlongs was completed in 35.53 seconds, compared with 39.69 for Forseti's closing three-eighths.
On a perennially stamina-sapping strip at its most testing, direct comparisons may be unfair; nevertheless, Merryweather - who was completing a hat-trick for her owners, The Horse Watchers, the last two at Southwell - remains one to keep on side.
Wind Breezes By
The very next race was a cracker: three Southwell specialists - Blowing Dixie, Angel Lane and Azari - lined up, the first named sent off the strong 4/6 favourite (and about that price, if not shorter, in my book). As it transpired, Dixie had five-and-a-half lengths and more on his field... with the exception of fibresand firster, Calling The Wind.
A winner twice on the Chelmsford speedway for Sir Mark Prescott in 2018, the son of Authorized changed hands last summer for £32,000, heading to Richard Hughes's yard. He was entitled to need his debut spin for the barn at the very end of last year, but showed a ready alacrity for this marmite surface, breezing alongside Blowing Dixie before moving decisively ahead. Calling The Wind achieved a decent Topspeed of 64 to which is added a strong sectional upgrade of 31 for an impressive composite of 95. He will be very hard to beat over this course and distance in a similar pace setup: that is the fastest course and distance composite score in our database by a full five points.
A Claim to Fame?
Nothing much to note in the novice ranks last week, but there was a fascinating claimer run at Lingfield on Friday. The finish was contested by the 6/5 favourite, Lets Go Lucky, and 5/2 second market choice, Hong Kong Dragon. They finished in that order, the pair most of five lengths clear of the rest, and with the second looking a little unlucky in the run.
That was how the 'judges' saw it, too, with no fewer than eight claims made for the runner up, including his (now former) trainer, George Scott, and fellow handlers Tony Carroll and Mick Appleby - plus at least one twitter shrewdie. He was secured for the claiming tag of £5,000 by Gareth Maule, whose runners mostly race with Christian Williams.
What was interesting about this contest is that they went very quickly early before a war of attrition - the winner being the one who slowed down the least - in the final section.
The sectional percentage 'by furlong' chart shows how closely matched the two protagonists were:
The red line is winner Lets Go Lucky, green is Hong Kong Dragon, and black is par, an expression of how to optimally run a race at this course and distance. Their composites are similar, with the winner getting a marginally higher speed rating and the runner-up a fractionally higher upgrade number. Both performed above expectation for the grade and it is a mystery - to me at least - how the second took eight claims where the winner took none!
What does it mean: OMC
Who doesn't love a bit of sectional jargon? (rhetorical)
And, as if there aren't enough new concepts and terms to get ones head around, we invented (at least) one more!
Say hello to OMC.
OMC stands for Opening, Midrace, Closing and is simply a means of splitting a race into a beginning, middle and end in order to better understand what happened and roughly when.
You can see from the trios of colour blobs above a chart how races have been run, and from the same colour blobs in the result itself (when the 'show sectionals' button has been clicked) how individual runners have divided their energies. Thus, the two claiming pugilists were involved in a race that was fast early, even in the middle and very slow late.
The notion of fast and slow in this context is based on the percentage of the race time spent in each section, compared with those percentages for all races run over the same course and distance.
This is important because it means we are not interested in the actual times. Rather, we are interested in the ratio of time spent in each part of the race, or section. Hopefully that makes some sort of sense because there's more.
The notion of fast and slow is also not a specific percentage but rather a comparison of the par percentage against this race's/runner's sectional percentage. So, in the claiming race example above, the O(pening) section had a sectional percentage of 101.9%. That is to say that it was completed pro rata in 101.9% of the overall race time; but that was fully 6% quicker as a sectional percentage than par for this course and distance, thus our algorithm deems it as FAST. [Remember that horses race from a standing start in the stalls and, thus, they need to go from 0 mph to their cruising speed, so we'd normally expect opening sections to be below 100%, depending on how long that opening section is.]
What you actually need to know
That's somewhere between obtuse and downright baffling for many, no doubt, so here's what you actually need to know.
If the blobs are green, a horse, or race (and its rider, or leaders) went evenly, using their energies sensibly across the spectrum of the distance.
Where the early blob is blue (slow), expect one or both of the later blobs to be orange/red (fast).
And vice versa: where early pace is fast (orange/red), as in the claimer example, expect the late sectional blob to be blue or possibly greenish.
Horses that finish fast are useful allies in subsequent races that look to be muddling in pace terms. Horses that can run evenly out back off faster than optimum tempos may be interesting closers in such pace setups, especially on the straight track at Newcastle. (These comments are mainly, though not exclusively, in relation to all weather racing).
A New Number on Gold
You've seen various references to upgrade figures in the above: they are the traceable heartbeat of sectional timing. They quantify objectively - notwithstanding that different scales of objectivity will find different numbers, as with xG in football - the extent to which a performance should be marked up.
There is no marking down with upgrades: a horse either ran efficiently, in which case it gets a zero, or it ran inefficiently. The less efficiently it ran, the bigger the upgrade figure.
Naturally, there are all sorts of nuances - such as horses that need to be ridden inefficiently (speedball frontrunners), but which can still win by making their rivals act even less optimally - which time and experience will help us figure out.
No data element, or group of data, is the panacea to solving the puzzle; but each new element enhances our understanding of the actors and our ability to quantify the value propositions before us. Sectional data, and upgrades, are clearly no different.
Here's how they look in your racecard once switched on, UP column right hand side:
And in the Full Form, this time with the 'Show Sectionals' option checked:
They also appear on the right of the Full Result a couple of days after the race, once we've received the information from our provider, Total Performance Data.
To switch sectional upgrade figures on, go to the Race Card Options section on your My Geegeez page, and check the box in the Ratings sub-section.
That's all for this week. I appreciate there's a lot to take in - for those who wish to - but the key is not necessarily to understand the mechanics; instead, focus on the utility: what is this stuff saying about what happened, and how does that inform me going forwards?
Often the answer is very little or nothing; frequently it is 'only' an empirical confirmation of that to which the peepers already alerted us; but occasionally these numbers switch us on to an effort far more positive than at first sight. That's the real juice.
By the end of the year, we'll all be more comfortable around these ideas, so take your time and dip your toe in when the urge takes you. Don't force it, no good comes of that. Oh, and please do ask questions. Here in the comments is best, so that other people might see the answers.
Thanks for reading, and good luck.
Matt
SotD Update, 27th Jan to 1st Feb 2020
/in Horse Racing Blog/by mattbisognoThankfully, two of the three January winners I was hoping for finally materialised to help the month finish in a similar manner to how it started. This meant that despite a desperate mid-month dip in form, we were still able to record a profit for January, albeit a fairly small one. A 20.8% strike rate is probably 1 winner shy of par (hence me wanting the three!), but I'll take it as a platform to build on.
Just the one February runner so far, but I'm hoping for another good month.
Chris
Selections & Results : 27/01/19 to 01/02/20
27/01 : Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 13/2
28/01 : Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8
29/01 : Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1
30/01 : Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/2
31/01 : Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/1
--------------------------------------------------------------
01/02 : Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1
20/01/19 to 25/01/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +3.75pts
January 2020 :
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% SR
P/L: +1.75pts
ROI = +7.29%
February 2020 :
0 winners from 1 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -1.00pts
ROI = -100.00%
Overall:
661 winners from 2491 = 26.54% S.R
P/L: +532.62pts
ROI: +21.38%
P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here
And here is the overview for 2019
Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?
Click here for more details.
Sat TV Trends: 22nd Feb 2020
/in Trends/by mattbisognoThis weekend the ITV cameras head to Kempton, with the Betway Handicap Chase their feature contest, while they are also at Lingfield for the Betway Winter Derby and the Newcastle for their Vertem Eider Chase.
As always, we are on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races. Use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.
Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
1.15 – Betway Pendil Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4
13/15 – French (8) of Irish (5) bred
12/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
12/15 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
11/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/15 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
10/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (won 7 of the last 10)
9/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 13/8
1.50 – Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
15/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 - Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Had won no more than once over hurdles in the UK
12/16 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in the Triumph Hurdle (3 winners)
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
10/16– Won carrying either a 4lb or 7lb penalty
9/16 – Won last time out
8/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – French bred
5/16 – Irish bred
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Trained by Alan King (won two of last 3 runnings)
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Triumph Hurdle
Zarkandar, Soldatino and Penzance went onto land that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
2.25 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4
16/16 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
14/16 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/16 – Rated 155 or higher
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
1/16 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)
3.02 – Sky Bet Dovecote Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4
13/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
13/14 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Had never raced over hurdles at Kempton before
11/14 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Aged either 4 or 5 years-old
8/14 – Won last time out
6/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – French bred
4/14 – Trained by Alan King
4/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was staged at Sandown Park
3.35 – Betway Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m ITV4
15/17 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
14/17 – Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
11/17 – Won a class 2 chase or better before
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
11/17 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Came from the top 4 in the betting
11/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Rated between 139 and 150
8/17 – Carried 11-5 or more
7/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Aged 8 years-old
5/17 – French bred
4/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
4/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
3/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
2/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Tom George
2/17 – Trained by Neil Mulholland (won 2 of the last 3)
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs (won it 4 times in all)
2/17 – Ran in the King George VI Chase last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 12/1
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown Park
Newcastle Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
2.45 – Vertem Eider (A Handicap Chase) Cl2 4m1f ITV4
16/16 – Had won over at least 3m before
14/16 – Aged 10 or younger
13/16 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/16 – Priced 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish-bred
11/16 – Winners came from the top 3 in the betting
11/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
11/16 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/16 – Officially rated between 131-140
10/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
8/16 – Placed favourites
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Won over 3m4f or further before
3/16 – Carried 11-12 in weight
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1
Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV4)
2.05 – Betway Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f6y ITV4
12/13 – Rated 96+
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/13 – Had raced at Lingfield before
9/13 – Raced 6 weeks or longer ago
9/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Placed favs
8/13 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
4/13 – US bred
4/13 – Winning favourites
4/13 – Mare winners
3/13 – Trained by David Barron
0/13 – Winners from stall 1
Royal Birth won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2
3.15 - Betway Winter Derby (All-Weather Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f ITV4
16/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or shorter
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
13/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
13/17 – Had run at Lingfield previously
13/17 – Won over at least 1m2f previously
13/17 – Had raced at either Lingfield (8) or Kempton (4) last time out
12/17 – Winning distance – less than a length
11/17 – Placed in their last race
11/17 – Drawn in stall 7 or less
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the market
11/17 – Won at Lingfield previously
11/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
10/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Won at least 6 times previously
8/17 – Winning favourites
Just 2 of the last 14 Winter Derby Trial winners have gone onto win the Winter Derby
The average winning SP in the 17 renewals is 6/1
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Stat of the Day, 1st February 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoFriday's pick was...
3.05 Catterick : Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/1 (Tracked leaders, disputed lead from 7th, led 4 out, 3 lengths clear 2 out, ridden out flat, held on near finish) - a very satisfactory end to a frustrating month that also started well, but had a serious dip in the middle!
Saturday's pick runs in the...
2.40 Musselburgh :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG
...in the 10-runner, Class 3, Scottish Champion Chase (Handicap for the Bowes-Lyon trophy) for 5yo+ over 2m on Good to Soft ground worth £13,256 to the winner...
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding has made the frame in 8 of his 9 starts (5 over hrds and then 4 over fences) during the past 12 months, winning four times. His record over fences reads 3311 including successes at 1m7.5f and 2m0.5f and als0 at this Class 3 level and a grade higher.
To date, he was won 4 of 12 (33.33% SR), including the following applicable today...
He has travelled a long way to run here today, but his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies does well when far from home. Since the start of 2016, his NH non-Festival runners sent off at odds of 6/5 to 8/1 at tracks more than 200 miles from home are 12 from 51 (23.5% SR) for 10.4pts (+20.4% ROI), including the following of relevance here...
...whilst during October to March over the last two years at 240-340 miles from home in races worth £4-14k, those runners are 8/20 (40% SR) 21.8pts (+109% ROI), including...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Musselburgh
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.
Sat TV Trends: 1st Feb 2020
/in Trends/by mattbisognoSandown, Musselburgh and Wetherby provide the LIVE ITV action this Saturday with seven races spread across the three venues.
As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.
Sandown Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.15 – Betway Casino Handicap Chase Cl2 1m7f119y RTV
13/13 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
13/13 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
12/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences before
10/13 – Aged 9 or younger
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
7/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
7/13 – Had run over fences at Sandown before (3 won)
6/13 – Winners that went to race in that season’s Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
5/13 – Carried 10-10 or less
5/13 – Raced at Sandown last time out
5/13 – Came from outside the top 4 in the betting
4/13 – Aged 7 years-old
5/13 – French bred
4/13 – Had an official rating of exactly 125
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/13 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1.50 – Betway Contenders Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m ITV4
9/9 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/9 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/9 – Had won over 2m (hurdles) before
8/9 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – French bred
6/9 – Won between 2-5 times (hurdles)
6/9 – Winning favourites
6/9 – Rated 161 or higher
6/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
3/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2.25 – Betway Scilly Isles Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV
16/16 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
16/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/16 – Won no more than 3 times over fences before
16/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
15/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Finished in the top 2 last time out
14/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Defi Du Seuil JLT Novices’ Chase)
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winning favourites
10/16 – French bred
6/16 – Aged 7 years-old
6/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Had run over fences at Sandown before
4/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 5 in the RSA Chase
4/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (4 of last 5 winners)
4/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3.00 – Betway Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m7f98y ITV
14/14 – Had run in the last 8 weeks
14/14 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
13/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
12/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/14 – Officially rated 135 or lower
11/14 – Won between 2-3 times over hurdles previously
10/14 – Winners that went to race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
10/14 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
9/14 – Winners that came from the top 3 in the market
9/14 – Priced 13/2 or less
9/14 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
9/14 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
7/14 – Favourites placed
5/14 – Favourites that won
4/14 – Raced over hurdles at Sandown previously (3 won)
4/14 – Won their last race
4/14 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/14 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/14 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
1/14 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (Ryanair Chase, 2007 Taranis)
3.35 – Betway Masters Handicap Chase Cl2 3m110y ITV
15/16 – Carried 11-5 or less
14/16 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/16 – Aged 9 or younger
11/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences (UK) before
11/16 – Rated 136 or lower
9/16 – Favourites placed in the top 4
9/16 – Placed last time out
9/16 – Irish-bred
8/16 – Had raced at Sandown before (4 won)
7/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/16 – Raced at either Sandown (3) or Haydock (3) last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/16 – French-bred
3/16 – Winners that went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
2/16 – Trained by Lucy Wadham (2 of last 6)
2/16 – Trained by Venetia Williams (2 of last 6)
Wetherby Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.45 – William Hill Towton Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV4
13/14 – Aged 8 or younger
12/14 – Had never raced over fences at Wetherby before
11/14 – Priced 3/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/14 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
10/14 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
9/14 – Aged 7 years-old
9/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (3) last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Irish bred
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
6/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (1 winner, Blaklion 2016, plus all finished 6th or better)
2/14 – Trained by Ian Williams
Musselburgh Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
2.05 - bet365 Scottish County Hurdle (A Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 1m7f124y ITV4
11/12 – Returned 15/2 or less in the betting
10/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
11/12 – Had won over this trip before (hurdles)
9/12 – Aged 6 years-old
8/12 – Former flat horses
8/12 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
7/12 – Carried 11-0 or less
7/12 – Rated between 120-130
7/12 – Favourites placed in the top 4
2/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Won last time out
3.15 – bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase Cl2 4m176y ITV4
Only two previous runnings
2/2 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
2/2 – Priced between 6/1 and 10/1 in the betting
0/2 – Winning favourites
Trainer Sandy Thompson won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Paul Nicholls has a 60% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 27% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Trainer Sandy Thompson has a 26% strike-rate with his chasers at the track
Full Jack won the race in 2018
Dancing Shadow (6/1) won the race in 2017
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Stat of the Day, 31st January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoThursday's pick was...
2.45 Ffos Las : Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Chased leader to 7th, weakened after 14th, tailed off and well beaten)
Friday's pick runs in the...
3.05 Catterick :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG
...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,809 to the winner...
Why?...
He might be 12 yrs old now, but he still looks to have at least one more win in him, based off his last two runs where he made the frame in tougher contests than this and on worse ground. Harry Reed steered him in those last two runs and he's on board again today as they go off the same mark as LTO.
This old boy is 5/22 (22.7% SR) in handicap chases, a decent return and he's hardly done the miles you'd expect of a 12 yr old and of those 22 runs, he has achieved the following strike rates under today's conditions...
...and in 6-9 runner, Class 4 handicap chases at 4/1 and shorter wearing cheekpieces over 2m½f to 2m4f off marks of 100-110 after 11-25 days rest, he is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 6.66pts (+166.4% ROI).
Trainer Tristan Davidson's horses are going well, having won 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) for 6.49pts (+43.3% ROI) over the last 2 months and he's a rare breed in that if you had followed him religiously for the last two years, you'd have made yourself a nice pot of money.
Not many trainers (especially at this level) are profitable to follow blindly over any extended period of time, but in the last two years backing Tristan's horses would have given you 35 winners from just 134 runners with the 26.1% strike rate yielding a level stake profit at betfair SP of 75.2pts at a cracking ROI of some 56.1%. Under some of today's conditions, those runners are...
...whilst with just one or two runners on the day, Tristan's NH runners set just 35 to 95 miles from home to compete in 6-13 runner contests for £8k or less are 15/29 (51.7% SR) for 71.2pts (+245.7% ROI), including...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.05am Friday morning from Bet365, BetVictor & Spreadex (but please check your BOG status first, latter is non-BOG) and then more widely available by 9.00am. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Catterick
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.
Stat of the Day, 30th January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoWednesday's pick was...
6.45 Kempton : Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, led entering final 2f, ridden and headed over 1f out, lost 2nd inside final furlong, weakened soon after)
Thursday's pick runs in the...
2.45 Ffos Las :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG
...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Beginners Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding made the frame on his chase debut at Exeter on New Year's Day on similarly soft ground, albeit in a higher grade than today and over an inadequately short trip. Dropped in class and stepped up in trip, I expect him to build upon that first effort and go better here today.
In the beginners' races, it's quite often a case of how the horse fared over hurdles and possibly guessing whether he'll be handled to his liking over the bigger obstacles. To that end, he is arguably the best suited of today's 6 runners based on hurdling form and today's jockey does seem to get the best from him.
He has already won 6 of 15 (40% SR) races for profits of 18.14pts (+120.9% ROI) including the following under similar conditions to today...
...whilst from the above, he is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 19.68pts (+328% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 6/1 in fields of 6-13 runners with David Noonan on his back, including a perfect three from three for 8.18pts (+272.7% ROI) on Soft ground...
...convincing me to place...a 1pt win bet on Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.10am Thursday morning from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with that price becoming widely available shortly after. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ffos Las
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.
Clock Watcher: Some Breeze from Wind
/in Clock Watcher, Horse Racing Blog/by mattbisognoIt's Wednesday and time for another edition of Clock Watcher, a weekly roundup of interesting performances from a sectional timing perspective. In focus this week is an impressive middle distance newcomer to the Nottinghamshire beach; a perfect example of upgrades in action; and an explanation of the concept of OMC. Plus, a new column in your Gold form denoting sectional upgrades. Woof!
We start with a couple of noteworthy efforts on a deeper-than-normal Southwell circuit last Thursday. While geegeez.co.uk eyes were on Forseti, one of our syndicate horses, who was recording a double at the track, clock watchers were treated to a brace of striking efforts for contrasting reasons.
One for the All 'Weather'
The first was in a three-runner Class 3 three-year-old handicap over a mile, where Forseti's stablemate at Mick Appleby's yard, Merryweather, was given a peach from the front by Ali Rawlinson. Where he'd been patient aboard Forseti half an hour earlier, riding our lad efficiently and coming through late, here he took ownership of the pace, dictating a pedestrian overture.
Thereafter, Rawlinson and his willing partner turned the screw, accelerating markedly in the final three furlongs. His Topspeed figure of 45 is moderate but an upgrade of a whopping 43 gives him a composite score of a more than useful 88. This is a fine illustration of how understanding how the race was run in a more objective, granular manner gives us a handle on what might have otherwise been considered a muddling affair.
The race time was unimpressive - 1.1 seconds slower than Forseti in the preceding contest - but the finishing effort of all three runners, most obviously the winner, was rapid. That final three furlongs was completed in 35.53 seconds, compared with 39.69 for Forseti's closing three-eighths.
On a perennially stamina-sapping strip at its most testing, direct comparisons may be unfair; nevertheless, Merryweather - who was completing a hat-trick for her owners, The Horse Watchers, the last two at Southwell - remains one to keep on side.
Wind Breezes By
The very next race was a cracker: three Southwell specialists - Blowing Dixie, Angel Lane and Azari - lined up, the first named sent off the strong 4/6 favourite (and about that price, if not shorter, in my book). As it transpired, Dixie had five-and-a-half lengths and more on his field... with the exception of fibresand firster, Calling The Wind.
A winner twice on the Chelmsford speedway for Sir Mark Prescott in 2018, the son of Authorized changed hands last summer for £32,000, heading to Richard Hughes's yard. He was entitled to need his debut spin for the barn at the very end of last year, but showed a ready alacrity for this marmite surface, breezing alongside Blowing Dixie before moving decisively ahead. Calling The Wind achieved a decent Topspeed of 64 to which is added a strong sectional upgrade of 31 for an impressive composite of 95. He will be very hard to beat over this course and distance in a similar pace setup: that is the fastest course and distance composite score in our database by a full five points.
A Claim to Fame?
Nothing much to note in the novice ranks last week, but there was a fascinating claimer run at Lingfield on Friday. The finish was contested by the 6/5 favourite, Lets Go Lucky, and 5/2 second market choice, Hong Kong Dragon. They finished in that order, the pair most of five lengths clear of the rest, and with the second looking a little unlucky in the run.
That was how the 'judges' saw it, too, with no fewer than eight claims made for the runner up, including his (now former) trainer, George Scott, and fellow handlers Tony Carroll and Mick Appleby - plus at least one twitter shrewdie. He was secured for the claiming tag of £5,000 by Gareth Maule, whose runners mostly race with Christian Williams.
What was interesting about this contest is that they went very quickly early before a war of attrition - the winner being the one who slowed down the least - in the final section.
The sectional percentage 'by furlong' chart shows how closely matched the two protagonists were:
The red line is winner Lets Go Lucky, green is Hong Kong Dragon, and black is par, an expression of how to optimally run a race at this course and distance. Their composites are similar, with the winner getting a marginally higher speed rating and the runner-up a fractionally higher upgrade number. Both performed above expectation for the grade and it is a mystery - to me at least - how the second took eight claims where the winner took none!
What does it mean: OMC
Who doesn't love a bit of sectional jargon? (rhetorical)
And, as if there aren't enough new concepts and terms to get ones head around, we invented (at least) one more!
Say hello to OMC.
OMC stands for Opening, Midrace, Closing and is simply a means of splitting a race into a beginning, middle and end in order to better understand what happened and roughly when.
You can see from the trios of colour blobs above a chart how races have been run, and from the same colour blobs in the result itself (when the 'show sectionals' button has been clicked) how individual runners have divided their energies. Thus, the two claiming pugilists were involved in a race that was fast early, even in the middle and very slow late.
The notion of fast and slow in this context is based on the percentage of the race time spent in each section, compared with those percentages for all races run over the same course and distance.
This is important because it means we are not interested in the actual times. Rather, we are interested in the ratio of time spent in each part of the race, or section. Hopefully that makes some sort of sense because there's more.
The notion of fast and slow is also not a specific percentage but rather a comparison of the par percentage against this race's/runner's sectional percentage. So, in the claiming race example above, the O(pening) section had a sectional percentage of 101.9%. That is to say that it was completed pro rata in 101.9% of the overall race time; but that was fully 6% quicker as a sectional percentage than par for this course and distance, thus our algorithm deems it as FAST. [Remember that horses race from a standing start in the stalls and, thus, they need to go from 0 mph to their cruising speed, so we'd normally expect opening sections to be below 100%, depending on how long that opening section is.]
What you actually need to know
That's somewhere between obtuse and downright baffling for many, no doubt, so here's what you actually need to know.
If the blobs are green, a horse, or race (and its rider, or leaders) went evenly, using their energies sensibly across the spectrum of the distance.
Where the early blob is blue (slow), expect one or both of the later blobs to be orange/red (fast).
And vice versa: where early pace is fast (orange/red), as in the claimer example, expect the late sectional blob to be blue or possibly greenish.
Horses that finish fast are useful allies in subsequent races that look to be muddling in pace terms. Horses that can run evenly out back off faster than optimum tempos may be interesting closers in such pace setups, especially on the straight track at Newcastle. (These comments are mainly, though not exclusively, in relation to all weather racing).
A New Number on Gold
You've seen various references to upgrade figures in the above: they are the traceable heartbeat of sectional timing. They quantify objectively - notwithstanding that different scales of objectivity will find different numbers, as with xG in football - the extent to which a performance should be marked up.
There is no marking down with upgrades: a horse either ran efficiently, in which case it gets a zero, or it ran inefficiently. The less efficiently it ran, the bigger the upgrade figure.
Naturally, there are all sorts of nuances - such as horses that need to be ridden inefficiently (speedball frontrunners), but which can still win by making their rivals act even less optimally - which time and experience will help us figure out.
No data element, or group of data, is the panacea to solving the puzzle; but each new element enhances our understanding of the actors and our ability to quantify the value propositions before us. Sectional data, and upgrades, are clearly no different.
Here's how they look in your racecard once switched on, UP column right hand side:
And in the Full Form, this time with the 'Show Sectionals' option checked:
They also appear on the right of the Full Result a couple of days after the race, once we've received the information from our provider, Total Performance Data.
To switch sectional upgrade figures on, go to the Race Card Options section on your My Geegeez page, and check the box in the Ratings sub-section.
That's all for this week. I appreciate there's a lot to take in - for those who wish to - but the key is not necessarily to understand the mechanics; instead, focus on the utility: what is this stuff saying about what happened, and how does that inform me going forwards?
Often the answer is very little or nothing; frequently it is 'only' an empirical confirmation of that to which the peepers already alerted us; but occasionally these numbers switch us on to an effort far more positive than at first sight. That's the real juice.
By the end of the year, we'll all be more comfortable around these ideas, so take your time and dip your toe in when the urge takes you. Don't force it, no good comes of that. Oh, and please do ask questions. Here in the comments is best, so that other people might see the answers.
Thanks for reading, and good luck.
Matt
Stat of the Day, 29th January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoTuesday's pick was...
4.10 Newcastle : Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Held up and behind, switched right before not fluent 3 out, closed a little after 2 out, not fluent and still plenty to do last, ridden final 100 yards and finished with a flourish to lead close home) - I thought the jockey rode a superb race on debut.
Wednesday's pick runs in the...
6.45 Kempton :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG
...in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...
Why?...
This 6 yr old gelding was narrowly defeated by a short head last time out in another Class 4 handicap at Chelmsford 18 days ago. He was only headed in the final strides and gets to go off the same mark today, but importantly drops back in trip to what I feel is his optimum 7f distance. That mere drop in trip should be all it needs to get him back to winning ways and the improvements of an already excellent record on the A/W.
He has made the frame in 9 of 13 (69.2%) starts on the all-weather, winning 6 times (46.2% SR) with those wins yielding 36.7pts (+282.2% ROI) profit. Under today's conditions, those 13 races have produced the following...
...whilst in his six races over 7f on Polytrack in fields of 8-11 runners after breaks of 2 to 7 weeks, Glenn Coco has made the frame 5 times (83.3%), winning 4 times (66.6% SR) for returns of 31.43pts at an ROI of 523.84%.
Trainer Stuart Williams is in good form right now with three winners and a placer from his four runners over the last week, including 2 from 2 here at Kempton and 1 from 1 with jockey PJ McDonald (also here at Kempton) and he has a good record when using today's jockey on the A/W winning 16 of 64 (25% SR) for 25.06pts (+39.2% ROI), including...
...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.05am Wednesday morning from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with plenty of 10/3 offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Stat of the Day, 28th January 2020
/in Stat of the Day/by mattbisognoMonday's pick was...
6.30 Wolverhampton : Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders on outside, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon hung right, headed and no extra close home) - pretty much typifying my luck right now!
Tuesday's pick runs in the...
4.10 Newcastle :
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG
...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Amateur Riders Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Soft ground worth £3,619 to the winner...
Why?...
Well, firstly let's just say that the weather has forced my hand somewhat, removing the options I was considering at Lingfield for today's piece/pick. But we are committed to provide a pick each day as long as there's UK racing to pick from, so via a selection route less frequently worn by me for SotD, let me explain this pick...
He's a lightly raced (3 x bumpers, 3 x hurdles) 6 yr old gelding seemingly unsuited by the tightness of Fakenham when 4th of 10 on New Year's Day, but did go well on soft ground when a runner-up two starts ago in early December at Sedgefield, so I'd expect him to cope with the mud. He looks more of a stayer than "sprinter" if there's such a thing over obstacles, so a step up in trip could well be beneficial, as should the dropping of two classes to run here today.
So we know he's lightly raced and have made some reasonable assumptions about his suitability re: race conditions. We normally then look at trainer & jockey, but the yard is a small quiet one and the jockey appears to be making his debut. None of which is probably filling any of you with much hope, but all is not lost, as we've a way in via the sire Linda's Lad, a former Group 3 winner over middle distance on the Flat in his day, but also a "producer" of quite a few NH winners.
In fact, his offspring are 27 from 149 (18.1% SR) in NH contests since the start of 2018 with the resultant 118.9pts profit equating to some 79.8% of stakes invested and from these runners, there's actually a myriad of angles to consider. I'm "just" going to give you a baker's dozen of them, all relevant today and all profitable, of course!
So of the 27/149 headline stat...
...whilst 5-8 yr old males sent off shorter than 12/1 in UK hurdle races worth less than £8,000 over trips of 2m½f to 3m½f are 13 from 29 (44.8% SR) for 63pts (+217.25% ROI) and these include 5/11 (45.5%) off marks of 101-120, 5/9 (55.6%) after 21-30 dslr and 5/7 (71.4%) on soft ground...
...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.10am Tuesday morning from Bet365, 888Sport & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newcastle
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
Here is today's racecard
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Monday Musings: Well Chosen by Willie
/in Monday Musings/by mattbisognoIt was a fairly routine Sunday jumps day of racing in Ireland at Naas yesterday with just over six weeks to go before the 2020 Cheltenham Festival, writes Tony Stafford. What was routine about it? Three Willie Mullins odds-on shots for Paul Townend in the seven races and all three won with the trainer promptly declaring their definite participation at the Festival. Stormy Ireland and The Big Getaway go there with prospects enhanced.
Only one of three experienced any difficulty in landing the odds, Carefully Selected making hard work of giving weight away in the three-mile Grade 3 novice chase. He will still be taking up his place in the newly-shortened National Hunt Chase, now 3m6f rather than the traditional four miles after the sight of only four of the 18 runners last March completing the course, sufficiently unpalatable for the sport’s image custodians to make the change.
Two of the non-completions were in action in England on Saturday with starkly different outcomes. OK Corral, second-favourite that day behind Ballyward (9-4), whose fatal injury in the race undoubtedly contributed to the clamour for change, won the Skybet Chase at Doncaster in game fashion for Nicky Henderson. Back at Cheltenham, Warthog, only recently a course birthday winner for Prof Caroline Tisdall, got no further than the first fence of his return to the track when pulling up having gone badly wrong and had to be put down.
Therein is racing’s impossible dilemma. It’s dangerous to be a racehorse and they can “go wrong” as the catch-all phrase goes at any time during any activity, and it doesn’t need to be when hurtling across big fences at 35 mph.
Warthog’s recent history is precisely the all-or-nothing nature of the activity and no matter how well horses are looked after, the loss of a horse, for owner, trainer or, most emotionally, its lad or lass walking past its vacant box the morning after cannot truly be understood by outsiders.
To say anything can cause death, I will relate two incidents involving Raymond Tooth horses. A few years back, we had a nice novice chaser called April Dusk with Warren Greatrex who’d sourced the horse. He’d won successive two and a half mile races at Uttoxeter, a novice hurdle then first time over fences a handicap chase, showing all the signs of being a potential Grand National horse in time having already achieved a 133 rating.
Warren was disturbed when he started to show signs of growths on various parts of his anatomy, to the extent that they were becoming uncomfortable. He went into the veterinary hospital for their removal, and was recovering from the surgery when he fell and broke a shoulder, requiring immediate euthanasia.
A couple of years later, Raymond had a slow-maturing horse, unraced as a two-year-old with Nicolas Clement called Weekender (Fr), not to be confused with the John Gosden-trained stayer of the same name. We brought him over at the start of his three-year-old year to Mick Channon and from memory it could not have been much more than a week after his arrival at West Ilsley that he was discovered laid out dead in his box at 5.30 a.m. when the first rounds of the day were being carried out.
As Mick so indelicately said: “Where there’s livestock, there’s dead stock”, probably not the slogan to affix to advertisements for the sale of racehorses in the manner of Government Health Warnings on cigarette packets, but true none the less.
I digress. “You always digress!” I hear you say. I was going to talk about the sire of Carefully Selected and also of the last winner at Naas, another Mullins special, in this case a 9-2 shot in a hunter chase, ridden by Patrick Mullins. “Did we hear you right, Mullins 9-2 in a hunter chase?” You did and, like Carefully Selected, that winner was Billaway; and, coincidentally, like Carefully Selected, he is a son of Well Chosen.
This was a decent hunter chase. Runner-up (at eight lengths) was Stalker Wallace, returning in the J P McManus colours after a 1,078-day – so nearly three years’ – absence with form behind the smart Nambour and Jury Duty in a maiden hurdle and later third on his final start behind two brilliant hunter-chasers, Foxrock and On The Fringe, at Leopardstown.
Third for Joseph O’Brien and McManus again was Edwulf, one-time Irish Gold Cup winner on his way back and third behind 25-1 shot Dylrow (he was only fifth yesterday) and Billaway on the latter’s comeback at Down Royal on Boxing (St Stephen’s to him) Day.
With such as the evergreen former dual Foxhunters Cup winner Salsify, but now at 15 a shadow of his former self, also gracing the race this was, as I said, a decent contest. Interestingly, afterwards Mullins senior said Billaway was bought with the Cheltenham Foxhunters in mind and that’s where he’s going. Talk about planning, the actual purchase date was February 18 2018, soon after he won his maiden point in Ireland, and was picked up at the Cheltenham racecourse sale by Howard Kirk for £50k.
I mentioned the stallion, and also in passing in relation to Stalker Wallace, his run behind Nambour and Jury Duty. The latter is the highest-rated product of Well Chosen, achieving a mark of 156 after starting just a 10-1 shot among the massive Gordon Elliott back-up squad to Tiger Roll who gave him only 8lb, in last year’s Grand National. He was still in with a chance when coming down at the 18th fence. Six months earlier he’d won the Grand National Hurdle in America, itself worth £200k!
Well Chosen was bred to be a champion Flat-racer, a son of Galileo’s sire and previously pre-eminent of them all, the wonderful Sadler’s Wells, whose life-size sculpture adorns the Coolmore museum in uncannily-lifelike splendour. If you get a chance to visit, take it with both hands!
The dam of Well Chosen was Hawajiss, a Maktoum Al Maktoum-owned and bred filly (by Henry Cecil’s champion Kris) who was good enough with Sir Michael Stoute to finish third to Balanchine in the Oaks and second to Bolas in the Irish Oaks.
Despite those exalted relatives, Well Chosen won only a 13-furlong all-weather race at Lingfield at the end of his three-year-old career with Ed Dunlop, finishing on a rating of just 80. The blood told though and given a chance at stud - he’s based at Kedragh House in Ireland - he now commands, at the age of 21, a fee of €6k, having been listed as “private” previously, which often denotes a fair degree of flexibility for mare owners.
He clearly has earned the right to cash in for his owners. In the past two weeks alone, five wins have been recorded, two by Carefully Selected who was turned out again quickly after bolting up at Punchestown in order to gain qualification to the Festival. Two more in that period, Chosen Mate and Chosen Hunter, are additional evidence if any is needed that this stallion, who I must confess had pretty much passed me by, is a big player in producing staying chasers. Everyone’s had to wait but it’s been worth it.
It was also worth the wait for Paisley Park’s second run of the season in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday and the champion staying hurdler kept the winning sequence going with a workmanlike defeat of Summerville Boy.
The winning margin was just over a length and the runner-up (off level weights) is a very high-class performer, good enough to pick off Kalashnikov when that horse was probably in the best form of his career in the Supreme Novice Hurdle two years ago. That two-mile speed, stretched out to three miles, makes him a realistic contender to turn around the form at the Festival with Emma Lavelle/Andrew Gemmell’s star, and with the Irish waiting in the wings, 4-5 looks skinny indeed, especially if Benie Des Dieux finds her way into the line-up.
Saturday’s other big pointer came from Santini, and Nicky Henderson is wondering why all the scepticism about his chance. The way he saw off Bristol De Mai in the Cotswold Chase, Nicky’s view is hard to argue with.
- TS