Tag Archive for: Stat of the day

Stat of the Day, 17th February 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

1.30 Haydock : Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m1f on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old mare is currently 4 from 20 (20% SR) which on face value is definitely reasonable and worth a second look. When you do look closer, you'll find that in the context of this race, her numbers are excellent when compared to her 7 rivals here , who are a combined 4 from 127 (3.15% SR)!

She has also made the frame in 7 of 16 defeats, meaning she has placed in 55% of all contests including the four wins and her 4/20 record includes of relevance today...

  • 4 wins and 6 places from 17 on soft/heavy
  • 4 and 6 from 16 with a 5-7lb claimer on board
  • 4 and 5 from 15 after 10-50 days rest
  • 4 and 6 from 14 in 5-9 runner contests
  • 4 and 5 from 13 from Jan-April
  • 4 and 3 from 8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 and 6 from 15 over 2m-2m1f
  • 3 and 4 from 10 with Abbie McCain in the saddle
  • 3 and 2 from 8 on soft ground
  • 2 and 5 from 12 at Class 4

...and 5-7lb claimer + 5-9 runners + soft/heavy + Jan-April + 4/1 max odds + 11-50 dslr = 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 11.55pts (+288.8% ROI), including...

  • 3/3 for Abbie McCain
  • 3/3 on soft
  • 3/3 at 2m-2m1f
  • and 2/2 at Class 4

The potential fly in the ointment is the weight, of course. As she's so consistent and clearly the best horse in the race, she gets no help from the handicapper today. Jockey Abbie's 5lb claim is the only relief available, but there's a precedent here, as since the start of 2015, Donald McCain's handicap hurdlers that are top weight have won 8 of 30 (26.7% SR) for 13.7pts (+45.7% ROI) profit when sent off at Evens to 10/1 with a claimer jockey on board, including the following at play today...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 19.7pts (+82.1%) in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 21.7pts (+98.6%) at 1-30 dslr
  • 7/20 (35%) for 20.4pts (+102%) with 7-9 yr olds
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 2.4pts (+67.3%) at Class 4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.6pts (+104.9%) on soft/heavy
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.4pts (+70.1%) over 2m-2m2f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103.1%) on soft
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 3.13pts (+62.6%) for Abbie McCain...

...whilst 4-9 runners + 1-30dslr + 6-9 yr old + Class 4 = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 28.4pts (+315.7% ROI), including...

  • 4/4 at 2m-2m2f
  • 4/4 on soft/heavy
  • 3/3 on soft...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 10th to 15th February 2020

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Well, what can I say? My current form is as bad (if not worse) than the weather, but I need my fortunes to improve sooner than the Met office are saying the weather will!

0 from 6 is poor, but when they finish 264655, it's dreadful. The highlight of the was Monday and it then went downhill from there, I'm afraid. Although if Monday's runner gets home, we perversely make a profit on the week!

Normally, at this stage of the month, I'm working out the bare minimum needed to protect the profits made and it looks like I'm up against it this month. Five, possibly six winners are needed, but it's not impossible. That said, I really do need a change in fortune/weather pretty quickly.

Thankfully, the knives haven't come out yet and the only pressure I'm feeling is self-imposed : I'm not getting grief just yet from you readers nor from above. The only other thing I would add is a reminder that I personally back every selection with my own money too, so I certainly feel the hit here.

Chris

Selections & Results : 10/02/20 to 15/02/20

10/02 : Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 15/2
11/02 : Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 5/2
12/02 : Liamba @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 6/1
13/02 : Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1
14/02 : Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1
15/02 : Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 6/1

10/02/20 to 15/02/20 :
0 winning bet from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

February 2020 :
1 winner from 13 = 7.69% SR
P/L: -9.25pts
ROI = -71.15%

Overall:
662 winners from 2503 = 26.45% S.R
P/L: +524.37pts
ROI: +20.95%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2020

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Friday's pick was...

3.50 Fakenham : Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Disputed lead until led 6th, headed before 10th, lost place 3 out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Heavy ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding finished 23111 over hurdles before switching to the larger obstacles where he is currently 1 from 2, after winning a heavy ground contest at Ayr almost four weeks ago on his last outing. Overall, to date, he is...

  • 4/5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 4/4 at 20-70 dslr
  • 2/3 in fields of fewer than 8 runners
  • 1/1 in a hcp
  • 1/1 on heavy
  • and 1/1 under today's jockey Sean Quinlan, who himself is...

...6 from 16 (37.5% SR) for 71.1pts (+444.6% ROI) when riding for trainer Nicky Richards in the last 12 months. two big priced winners are clearly affecting the P/L and the ROI here, but the Strike rate is excellent and those 16 races include the following of relevance here today...

  • 6/12 (50%) for 75.1pts (+625.8%) with 7-10 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 74.6pts (+677.9%) over fences
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 76.6pts (+850.8%) at 26-60 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+608.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/10 (40%) for 37.3pts (+373.2%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 36.8pts (+1227.3%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 29.4pts (+980%) on heavy ground...

...whilst Quinlan + Richards + 7-10yo chasers at 26-60 dslr = 5/6 (83.3% SR) for 79.6pts (+1326.2% ROI).

Trainer Nicky Richards' horses don't mind a bit of mud either (just as well!), as his handicap chasers are 19 from 54 (35.2% SR) for 62.4pts (+115.6% ROI) backed blindly on heavy ground since the start of 2013, including of note today...

  • 19/48 (39.6%) for 68.4pts (+142.6%) in faces with fewer than 10 runners
  • 17/41 (41.5%) for 66.8pts (+162.9%) within 2 months of their last run
  • 17/39 (43.6%) for 65.6pts (+168.1%) over 2m to 3m
  • 16/37 (43.2%) for 34.3pts (+92.6%) in races worth £4-10.5k
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 25.4pts (+87.7%) at Class 3
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 18.1pts (+95%) stepped up in trip by 1-4 furlongs
  • 5/12 941.7%) for 9.35pts (+77.9%) with LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.7pts (+195.7%) in the North West
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 30.4pts (+1520%) for our aforementioned jockey, Sean Quinlan...

...and Class 3 + 2m-3m + £4-10.5k + 1-60dslr + 1-9 runners = 11/17 (64.7%) for 32.3pts (+189.8%) including...

  • 4 from 6 stepped up by 1-4f
  • 3 from 4 LTO winners
  • 1 from 1 LTO winners stepped up 1-4f
  • 1 from 1 in the North West...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.40am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th February 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

3.00 Leicester : Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1 (Not always fluent, in rear on outside, some headway 9th, hit 12th, soon well beaten)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £6,433 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, one of the benefits of posting the picks just after 8.00am means we've avoided a non-runner today, after my first choice was scheduled to run at Sandown, hence me going with one slightly shorter in price than I'd normally put up for you (hopefully, there'll be a bit of an early-morning drift). That doesn't, of course, mean that I don't expect to have a winner!

So, why this 6 yr old mare? Well, she's lightly (just 5 starts to date) raced, but has 3 wins and a runner-up finish (odds-on defeat by just a neck at Carlisle LTO 11 days ago) to her name already and aside from her own suitability to the task ahead, I've a few other strands of data that suggest a good run is due here, so I'll try to keep it as brief as I can, starting with...

..the horse, whose 17112 form line includes...

  • 1711 going left handed
  • 112 at Class 4
  • 112 on Soft or softer
  • 112 under jockey Gavin Sheehan (more on him in a moment)
  • and 1 from 1 here at Fakenham

After her narrow defeat at odds-on LTO, she'll look to bounce back quickly and the omens are good as since the start of 2017 in UK NH handicaps, horses turned back out within 30 days of an odds-on defeat of 2 lengths or shorter are 19 from 59 (32.2% SR) for 25.8pts (+43.8% ROI) profit, including the following at play today...

  • 16/30 (53.3%) for 31.8pts (+106%) at odds of evens to 5/1
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 23pts (+104.5%) at Class 4
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 13.1pts (+38.6%) over hurdles
  • and 7/13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+167.1%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

...with Class 4 runners sent off at evens to 5/1 winning 11 of 16 (68.75% SR) for 20.95pts (+168.4% ROI) profit.

...and now to the jockey. Gavin Sheehan is in good touch right now, having won 5 of 19 (26.3% SR) for 13.5pts (+71.1% ROI) already this month, including of relevance today...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 22.5pts (+225%) at evens to 8/1
  • 3/10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%) in novice races
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.2pts (+124.3%) in handicaps
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.9pts (+218%) on soft ground

and finally our trainer today is Miss Venetia Williams, about whom I have many profitable angles, but we'll just quickly look at two for today, starting with an angle I loosely label "Winter 3m+". Basically some trainers fare better than others with stayers in the main NH season. In Venetia's case, backing her runners during October to April at evens to 8/1 is very successful.

Since the start of 2017, this approach has generated 32 winners from 120 (26.7% SR) for 73.6pts (+61.4% ROI) profit, broken down under today's conditions as follows...

  • 16/49 (32.7%) for 47.9pts (+97.8%) on soft ground
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.7pts (+50.4%) at Class 4
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 20.4pts (+119.9%) in February
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.5%) 11-15 days after their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 15.3pts (+95.8%) with female runners
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 12pts (+133.3%) in novice contests

The other angle I want to touch on before eventually (I didn't want you all to think that second choice meant I'd put less effort in!) signing off on this one is Miss Williams' record in Class 4 handicap hurdles, because at odds of evens to 9/1 since the start of 2017 she has definitely been worth following with 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) producing profits of 24.3pts at a decent ROI of 42.6% including...

  • 10/44 (22.7%) for 10.14pts (+23.1%) on soft or softer ground
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.4pts (+96.7%) from her 6 yr olds
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.04pts (+168%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

...all of which has steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Friday (with plenty of 11/4 appearing from 8.30 onwards!), but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th February 2020

/in /by

Wednesday's pick was...

2.20 Southwell : Liamba @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Led, headed over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7f on Soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner...

Why?...

This 11 yr old mare is a consistent/hardy sort and that might be all that's needed here. She recorded six consecutive top 3 finishes prior to struggling under a 3lb claimer last time out. Regular jockey Paddy Brennan is back in the saddle today and with a 2lb easing of her mark, I'd expect more from her today.

She's Fergal O'Brien's only runner of the day and he's 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 40.9pts (+163.6% ROI) in handicap chases here at Leicester since the start of 2015, including of relevance today...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 43.9pts (+199.5%) in races worth £4-10k
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 51.9pts (+370.5%) with runners returning from 3 to 8 weeks rest
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 43.2pts (+332.2%) over trips of 2m6.5f to 2m7.5f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 33.1pts (+254.3%) with Paddy Brennan in the saddle
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.9pts (+182.1%) on Soft ground

...whilst those competing for £4-10k after 3-8 weeks rest are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 52.9pts (+406.7% ROI), from which...

  • Paddy Brennan is 4/7 (57.1%) for 39.1pts (+557.8%)
  • those racing over 2m6.5f to 2m7.5f are 4/6 (66.6%) for 50.2pts (+836.6%)
  • and on soft ground : 2/5 (40%) for 11.9pts (+238.5%)

Meanwhile, more generally, Fergal O'Brien's handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 11/1 during February to April inclusive are 16 from 80 (20% SR) for 35.8pts (+44.7% ROI) since Feb 1st 2016, including...

  • 11/53 (20.8%) for 34.4pts (+64.8%) after 16-60 days off track
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 30pts (+65.2%) under Paddy Brennan
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 27.7pts (+67.6%) over 2m6.5f to 3m2f
  • and 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.5pts (+67.2%) from Fergal's only runner at the track that day...

...and there has been 8 horses that, like today's pick, tick all four of the above boxes and they have yielded 3 winners (37.5% SR) and 15.7pts (+196.4% ROI) profit including one from one here at Leicester...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Thursday with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2020

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

5.20 Newcastle : Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Held up in rear, smooth headway near side of group halfway, chased leaders 3f out, ridden inside final 2f, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old mare wasn't at her best last time out 15 days ago, when beaten here over course and distance, but she did win her two previous outings and there's every chance she'll bounce back today on a track she loves.

Her record here at Southwell stands at 3 wins and 7 further places from 13 efforts, including the following of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 when sent off shorter than 9/1
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 off a mark of 61-70
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 8 after 15-30 days rest
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 7 at Class 5

...whilst she's 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 7.3pts (+121.6% ROI) at sub-9/1 odds off a mark of 61-70 returning from 15-30 days off track, including 2 from 5 (40%) for 5.7pts (+114%) at Class 5.

Her trainer, David O'Meara is flying right now, with 3 winners from 6 in the last seven days and an overall 32% strike rate for the past month (8 from 25) and he does have a decent record in this type of contest.

Since the start of 2017, his Class 5 runners competing over 6-7 furlongs here at Southwell have won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for profits of 4.95pts (+24.75% ROI), including...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) in fields of fewer than 10 runners
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.39pts (+85.3%) from females
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 7.43pts (+67.5%) since the start of 2019
  • 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%) during January to May
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.5pts (+16.7%) with those returning from 6-20 days rest...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Coral, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2020

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

4.10 Plumpton : Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 15/2 (Led until after 1st, chased leader until before 3 out, went 2nd again before next, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Our hand has been forced slightly again by the weather, but I think we've got a good chance with this 5 yr old Mare looking to snap a long losing run, now that she's rated (OR) 3lbs lower than her last win.

She showed signs of a return to form five days ago when finishing as a runner-up over course and distance of today's mark of 64 in a Class 5 contest and with a drop in class allied to having a 5lb claimer on her back here, she could go one better today turned back out quickly.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it fairly brief and simple, as I try to unravel why she is running again so quickly and the obvious thing is that her handlers feel she's ready to win after that seeming return to form and a closer analysis of the yard's MO backs this up as...

...trainer Michael Herrington is 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 22.1pts (+31.5% ROI) when backing all his UK handicappers since the start of 2016 turned back out within a fortnight of finishing in the first three home last time out, including of relevance today...

  • 15/44 (34.1%) for 24.2pts (+55.1%) at odds of Evens to 6/1
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 22.8pts (+43.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 33.8pts (+86.6%) with 2-6 yr olds
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.1pts (+62%) at Class 6
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 13.7pts (+40.4%) on Tapeta
  • 6/20 (30%) for 18.6pts (+93%) over trips of 7 to 9.5 furlongs
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.65pts (+105.9%) with female runners

...whilst his 2-6 yr olds sent off at Evens to 6/1 in Class 6 contests on Tapeta are 4/10 (40% SR) for 8.81pts (+88.1% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Unibet at 8.03am Tuesday will Hills offering slightly more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.

1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.

2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for 69.5pts (+173.8%) within 100 miles drive of her base
  • and 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton

3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.95pts (+55%) at Class 4
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.5pts (+194.4%) during January & February

4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)

...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.

1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.

2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for 69.5pts (+173.8%) within 100 miles drive of her base
  • and 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton

3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.95pts (+55%) at Class 4
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.5pts (+194.4%) during January & February

4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)

...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 3rd to 8th February 2020

/in /by

Last week was the proverbial Curate's egg : good in parts. Ilhabela Fact was a nice SP-beating winner and we'd a couple of other placers. The stats for the month will show that we're one winner shy of parity for both strike rate and profitability and we really needed another of the placers to get home.

As ever, it's a case of fine margins and whilst I'm getting at least 50% of the picks to make the frame, I'm not unduly worried about some losses.

A milestone awaits us this week, too. If all goes to plan, Wednesday's runner will be our 2500th! Not for a small feature that we weren't sure would work/take off!

Chris

Selections & Results : 03/02/20 to 08/02/20

03/02 : Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2
04/02 : Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4
05/02 : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1
06/02 :Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG4th at 2/1
07/02 : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4
08/02 : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3

03/02/20 to 08/02/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.25pts

February 2020 :
1 winner from 7 = 14.29% SR
P/L: -3.25pts
ROI = -46.43%

Overall:
662 winners from 2497 = 26.51% S.R
P/L: +530.37pts
ROI: +21.24%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

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