Tag Archive for: horse racing tips

Stat of the Day, 12th February 2020

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Tuesday's pick was...

5.20 Newcastle : Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Held up in rear, smooth headway near side of group halfway, chased leaders 3f out, ridden inside final 2f, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old mare wasn't at her best last time out 15 days ago, when beaten here over course and distance, but she did win her two previous outings and there's every chance she'll bounce back today on a track she loves.

Her record here at Southwell stands at 3 wins and 7 further places from 13 efforts, including the following of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 when sent off shorter than 9/1
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 off a mark of 61-70
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 8 after 15-30 days rest
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 7 at Class 5

...whilst she's 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 7.3pts (+121.6% ROI) at sub-9/1 odds off a mark of 61-70 returning from 15-30 days off track, including 2 from 5 (40%) for 5.7pts (+114%) at Class 5.

Her trainer, David O'Meara is flying right now, with 3 winners from 6 in the last seven days and an overall 32% strike rate for the past month (8 from 25) and he does have a decent record in this type of contest.

Since the start of 2017, his Class 5 runners competing over 6-7 furlongs here at Southwell have won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for profits of 4.95pts (+24.75% ROI), including...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) in fields of fewer than 10 runners
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.39pts (+85.3%) from females
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 7.43pts (+67.5%) since the start of 2019
  • 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%) during January to May
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.5pts (+16.7%) with those returning from 6-20 days rest...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Coral, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2020

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Monday's pick was...

4.10 Plumpton : Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 15/2 (Led until after 1st, chased leader until before 3 out, went 2nd again before next, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Our hand has been forced slightly again by the weather, but I think we've got a good chance with this 5 yr old Mare looking to snap a long losing run, now that she's rated (OR) 3lbs lower than her last win.

She showed signs of a return to form five days ago when finishing as a runner-up over course and distance of today's mark of 64 in a Class 5 contest and with a drop in class allied to having a 5lb claimer on her back here, she could go one better today turned back out quickly.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it fairly brief and simple, as I try to unravel why she is running again so quickly and the obvious thing is that her handlers feel she's ready to win after that seeming return to form and a closer analysis of the yard's MO backs this up as...

...trainer Michael Herrington is 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 22.1pts (+31.5% ROI) when backing all his UK handicappers since the start of 2016 turned back out within a fortnight of finishing in the first three home last time out, including of relevance today...

  • 15/44 (34.1%) for 24.2pts (+55.1%) at odds of Evens to 6/1
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 22.8pts (+43.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 33.8pts (+86.6%) with 2-6 yr olds
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.1pts (+62%) at Class 6
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 13.7pts (+40.4%) on Tapeta
  • 6/20 (30%) for 18.6pts (+93%) over trips of 7 to 9.5 furlongs
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.65pts (+105.9%) with female runners

...whilst his 2-6 yr olds sent off at Evens to 6/1 in Class 6 contests on Tapeta are 4/10 (40% SR) for 8.81pts (+88.1% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Unibet at 8.03am Tuesday will Hills offering slightly more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.

1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.

2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for 69.5pts (+173.8%) within 100 miles drive of her base
  • and 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton

3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.95pts (+55%) at Class 4
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.5pts (+194.4%) during January & February

4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)

...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.

1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.

2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for 69.5pts (+173.8%) within 100 miles drive of her base
  • and 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton

3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.95pts (+55%) at Class 4
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.5pts (+194.4%) during January & February

4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)

...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th February 2020

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Friday's pick was...

3.05 Southwell : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch on outside, headway into 2nd over 3f out, challenged 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, no extra towards finish) - the lack of a finish showed why he's now 0/19.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £8,058 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was quite well beaten back in fourth place last time out, four weeks ago, but in his defence that was a Grade 2 contest where he was unable to run his usual race from the front, as he had done when winning a Class 3 race at Plumpton two starts ago, under today's jockey Jonjo O'Neill (Jnr).

Back down at Class 3 and reunited with Jonjo, I'd expect him to be a different proposition today.

Jonjo is riding well of late and his 3 wins from 12 (25% SR) over the last week isn't a purple patch, as not only is he 13 from 53 (24.5%) over the past month, he;s also 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 24pts (+133.3% ROI) in handicaps here at Newbury over the last 12 months, including of relevance today...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 30pts (+250%) at odds shorter than 12/1
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+91.7%) over fences
  • 3/6 (50%) for 27.9pts (+465.4%) at 2m4½f to 3m
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.14pts (+202.8%) at Class 3

...whilst trainer Colin Tizzard's Newbury handicappers sent off at 12/1 and shorter since the start of 2016 are 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 44.4pts (+130.6% ROI) : all males. Now, despite 34 runners not being a huge number to work from, there are actually plenty of different successful/profitable angles to be derived, suggesting conditions might be in our pick's favour today, as of the 34 original qualifiers...

  • 12/25 (48%) for 53.4pts (+213.6%) after at least 3 weeks rest
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 41.5pts (+143.2%) over fences
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 48.1pts (+184.9%) at the ages of 6-10
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 47.6pts (+183.2%) in 4-12 runner contests
  • 9/17 (52.9%) for 34.3pts (+201.6%) in races worth £6-12k
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.4pts (+155.2%) at Class 3
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 24pts (+200%) at odds of 5/1 or shorter
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 25.6pts (+142.4%) from those either beaten by 10 lengths or more LTO or who didn't finish
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 13pts (+117.9%) with class droppers
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.67pts (+227.8%) on Good ground...

...and if you wanted a composite micro from the above (mindful of a dilution of numbers, of course), you could try 5-10 yr olds returning from 3+ weeks rest to run in a 4-12 runner chase worth £6-12k for 8 winners from 13 (61.5% SR), all at Class 3 and giving 30.4pts profit at an ROI of 233.8%, including...

  • 6/8 (75%) for 17.47pts (+218.3%) at 5/1 or shorter
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 23pts (+328.4%) from those defeated by 10L+ or DNF last time out
  • 4/4 (100%) for 15.67pts (+391.6%) on Good ground
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2,54pts (+63.5%) from class droppers...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th February 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

7.00 Newcastle : Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 2/1 (Awkward start, in rear, ridden over 1f out, went never dangerous 4th inside final furlong)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ Maidens over 1m on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, with potential SotD picks thin on the ground today (my 5-runner shortlist was this one, an 8/1 shot and three at 11/10 or shorter), we're entering fairly unfamiliar territory in a Maiden Handicap and we'll be taking on a fairly warm favourite, but hey : one of these has to break their duck today!

Obviously this 7-runner contest has no previous winners, but our 4 yr old gelding has at least finished 2423 (all under today's jockey) in his last four starts, so he's bringing some sort of form to the table, including a runner-up finish on his only previous effort on this track/surface. Blinkers are applied today for the first-time in a (well-tried by his trainer) bid to eke out a bit more from the horse.

Despite now being 0 from 18, he has a 50% place strike rate (4/8) under today's jockey Shane Kelly, who himself is 9/25 (36% SR) for 16.65pts (+66.6% ROI) on horses sent off shorter than 7/1 here at Southwell since the start of 2018 and these include...

  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 21.82pts (+121.2%) in 6-11 runner contests
  • 6/12 (50%) for 13.28pts (+110.6%) at Class 5
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 12.02pts (+109.3%) over this 1m C&D
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 14.44pts (+160.4%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests
  • 4/8 (50%) for 13.19pts (+164.8%) in 6-11 runner C&D contests
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 10.13pts (+168.9%) in Class 5 C&D races
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 9.3pts (+186%) in Class 5, 6-11 runner contests over this 1m course and distance

And in that same 2018-now time-frame, trainer Tony Carroll's runners at this venue are 16 from 75 (21.3% SR) for 246.2pts (+328.2% ROI), figures skewed by a couple of decent priced winners, but the SR is still impressive nonetheless and the figures are still profitable without the "biggies" and include...

  • 9/41 (22%) for 56.9pts (+138.8%) after a break of 11-30 days
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 98.5pts (+428.1%) during February & March
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 46.4pts (+244.3%) at Class 5
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 166.7pts (+1041.8%) with 4 yr olds
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 57.4pts (+637.4%) in blinkers
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 52.6pts (+1052.1%) in first-time blinkers

That first-time blinkers stat is interesting, because further digging tells me that since the start of 2016, Tony Carroll's runners sporting the blinkers for the first time have won 8 of 27 races (29.6% SR) for 112.7pts profit at an ROI of some 417.3% and that's probably enough for today about a 0/18 maiden...

...to suggest...a 1pt win bet on Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, BetVictor, Marathon & Paddy Power at 8.10am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2020

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

4.00 Southwell : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1 (Always in rear)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding quite probably needed the run last time out, when finishing fourth here over course and distance a fortnight ago in a better field than this one. He was coming back from a 3-month break that day, but got going late on to stay on into fourth, beaten by just over a length and a quarter.

This looks a slightly weaker contest (based on OR marks) against fewer rivals with the benefits of (a) having had a run, (b) being eased a pound by the assessor and (c) having a 7lb claimer ride instead of a 5lb one, making him effectively 3lbs better off here.

He is currently 3 from 12 (25% SR) for 2.5pts (+20.8% ROI) profit backed blindly over today's track and trip in handicap contests, including...

  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.5pts (+81.2%) at odds shorter than 8/1
  • 3/3 (100%) for 11.5pts (+383.2%) carrying 9st 1lb to 9st 3lbs after allowances, of course
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2.09pts (+52.1%) after a break of 1-2 weeks

...and he's 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 4.09pts (+204.5% ROI) when all three of the above are aligned as they are today.

His record here comes as less of a surprise, if you know that he's by Frozen Power, whose offspring are 19 from 66 (28.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+61.4% ROI) profit since the start of 2016 in UK A/W handicaps on Tapeta over trips shorter than 1m2f at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note/relevance today...

  • 18/58 (31%) for 40.1pts (+69.2%) within six weeks of their last run
  • 15/50 (30%) for 30.1pts (+60.2%) at trips of 5-7f
  • 14/44 (31.8%) for 27.7pts (+62.9%) at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run
  • 9/31 (29%) for 13.1pts (+42.3%) here at Newcastle
  • 9/25 (36%) for 19.1pts (+76.4%) here at Newcastle at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run
  • 3/10 (30%) for 13.43pts (+134.3%) in February
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.02pts (+200.4%) in February at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Thursday morning with some 3/1 at SkyBet too, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th February 2020

/by

Tuesday's pick was...

7.30 Kempton : Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4 (Prominent, effort on inside over 2f out, every chance from over 1f out, led inside final furlong, ran on)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding got back to winning ways when scoring at Newcastle last time out 13 days ago under today's jockey Barry McHugh, who is riding really well right now. In fact, he has made the frame in 7 of 10 rides over the past fortnight, winning 3 times and since the start of 2017 is 18/89 (20.2% SR) for 38.9pts (+43.7% ROI) on the A/W here at Southwell, including of relevance today...

  • 17/76 (22.4%) for 49.1pts (+64.6%) during October-March
  • 16/78 (20.5%) for 38.9pts (+49.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 14/75 (18.7%) for 33.7pts (+44.9%) in handicaps
  • 14/61 (23%) for 47pts (+77.1%) with male runners
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.23pts (+113.7%) from LTO winners

...whilst he is 8/36 (22.2% SR) for 41.5pts (+115.2% ROI) on male handicappers chasing less than £4k during October to March, including 2/4 (50%) for 2.93pts (+73.3%) on LTO winners.

Meanwhile, trainer Michael Herrington seems to have a knack of getting his small string of horses to win back to back races, invariably sending them back out fairly soon after a win to strike whilst the iron is hot, so to speak. Since the start of 2016, his LTO winners are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 26.4pts at an ROI of 60.1% in UK handicap contests, from which he is/they are...

  • 10/36 (27.8%) for 34.4pts (+95.6%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 32.3pts (+98%) on the A/W
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 24.6pts (+76.9%) shorter than 7/1
  • 9/29 (31%) for 27.6pts (+95.2%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 37.3pts (+133.3%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 23pts (+121.1%) within a fortnight of their last run
  • and 6/17 (35.3%) for 19.3pts (+113.8%) at Class 6

...and those sent off sub-7/1 on the A/W chasing less than £4k in fields of 9-13 runners within 25 days of their last run are 8 from 14 (57.1% SR) for 37.5pts (+267.9% ROI) profit, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 28.26pts (+403.7%) over the last two years...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.05am Wednesday morning with a smattering of 10/3 around too, but as always please check your BOG status. There was a drift in the market in the hour after I went live, so you should all be able to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2020

/by

Monday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, led and edged left entering final furlong, ran on under pressure, headed last strides)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old male is one of only two former course and distance winners in today's contest and showed signs of a return to form when a runner-up at this class, track and trip last time out fifteen days ago.

His record here is good, making the frame 8 times (57.1%) from 14 attempts, including four wins (28.6% SR) that have generated 29.22pts profit at an ROI of some 208.7% from which he is...

  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.22pts (+292.9%) off today's mark of 76 or lower
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.41pts (+163%) when sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 8/1
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.04pts (+167.4%) at Class 4
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.04pts (+167.4%) over course and distance
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 24.18pts (+806%) within 15 days of his last run
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 4.22pts (+211%) in February

Jockey Ben Curtis takes the ride for the first time today and Ben is red hot right now, winning on 6 of his 19 (31.6% SR) mounts over the last four days and whilst he rarely rides for trainer Tony Carroll, the pair were 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 10.75pts (+179.1% ROI) together in January, including 2 from 4 (50%) for 8.33pts (+208.2%) on handicaps and 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.67pts (+483.5%) beyond a mile...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 8.05am Tuesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

2.40 Musselburgh : Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Led, driven and headed turning in, ridden before 3 out, one pace and no impression when left 3rd next, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out over 5f at Kempton nine days ago and now drops in class for the switch to Tapeta.

His trainer Phil McEntee is 18 from 84 (21.4% SR) for 43.2pts (+51.4% ROI) since the start of 2016 and he also has a very good record here at Wolverhampton, especially in handicaps at the sharper end of the market.

In fact, since the start of 2015, Phil's handicappers sent off in the 6/4 to 13/2 price range here are 13 from 44 (29.6% SR) for 31.4pts (+71.3% ROI), including...

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 35.4pts (+88.4%) from males
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 41.4pts (+121.8%) during January to May
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 35pts (+120.6%) after 4-15 days rest
  • and 10/35 (28.6%) for 24.2pts (+69%) at Class 6...

...whilst Class 6 males racing in January to April after just 4-15 days rest are 9/15 (60% SR) for 36.1pts (+240.3% ROI), including Pearl Spectre in the 5.30 race this evening...

...but my pick is...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Hills, Unibet & Spreadex at 8.35am Monday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.