Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019
Saturday's pick was...
7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Out The Glen @ 10/3
...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...
Why?...
This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.
Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..
1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...
- 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
- 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
- 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
- 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
- 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
- 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
- and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las
2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...
- males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
- Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
- and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)
...and finally for today...
3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...
- 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
- 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
- 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
- 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
- 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
- 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
- 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
- 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
- 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
- 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
- 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
- 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy
...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...
...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Played Chris,
Paul
Thanks Chris.