Tag Archive for: ffos las racecourse

Stat of the Day, 30th January 2020

/in /by

Wednesday's pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, led entering final 2f, ridden and headed over 1f out, lost 2nd inside final furlong, weakened soon after) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Beginners Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding made the frame on his chase debut at Exeter on New Year's Day on similarly soft ground, albeit in a higher grade than today and over an inadequately short trip. Dropped in class and stepped up in trip, I expect him to build upon that first effort and go better here today.

In the beginners' races, it's quite often a case of how the horse fared over hurdles and possibly guessing whether he'll be handled to his liking over the bigger obstacles. To that end, he is arguably the best suited of today's 6 runners based on hurdling form and today's jockey does seem to get the best from him.

He has already won 6 of 15 (40% SR) races for profits of 18.14pts (+120.9% ROI) including the following under similar conditions to today...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 23.14pts (+231.4%) in fields of 6-13 runners
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 24.14pts (+268.2%) at odds of Evens to 6/1
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13.68pts (+114%) under jockey David Noonan
  • 4/8 (50%) for 10.64pts (+133%) on Soft ground
  • 3/6 (50%) for 5.71pts (+95.2%) after less than 30 days rest
  • 3/6 (50%) for 12.96pts (+144%) in non-handicap contests
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%) at Class 4
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 11.11pts (+277.8%) over trips of 2m6f-3m...

...whilst from the above, he is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 19.68pts (+328% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 6/1 in fields of 6-13 runners with David Noonan on his back, including a perfect three from three for 8.18pts (+272.7% ROI) on Soft ground...

...convincing me to place...a 1pt win bet on Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.10am Thursday morning from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with that price becoming widely available shortly after. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Out The Glen @ 10/3

...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.

Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..

1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
  • 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las

2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...

  • males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
  • and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)

...and finally for today...

3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
  • 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
  • 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy

...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Out The Glen @ 10/3

...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.

Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..

1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
  • 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las

2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...

  • males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
  • and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)

...and finally for today...

3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
  • 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
  • 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy

...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!