2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2020)
Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!
DAY FOUR: Friday 13th March 2020
13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f
2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (20/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
Pluses…..
- 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
- Irish have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
- French-breds have filled 9 of the last 15 places (last 5 runnings)
- 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
- 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
- Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
- 7 of the last 16 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
- 10 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
- The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles last time
- 6 of the last 11 winners had run in France before
- Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
- Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 6 years
Negatives….
- Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
- Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
- Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
- Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12
- Willie Mullins has a poor record – currently 0-from-27
14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f
2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton
Pluses….
- The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
- 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
- 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s
- 7 of the last 12 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
- 5 of the last 11 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
- 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 12 of the last 14 winners were priced in double-figures
- 12 of the last 16 winners began their careers on the flat
- Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
- Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
- 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
- 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
- 13 of the last 16 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
- 11 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- Paul Nicholls is 4 from 28 (+18pts)
- Willie Mullins is 4 from 33 (+46pts)
- Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 4 renewals (last 2)
Negatives….
- Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
- Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
- Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
- Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (146 runners)
- Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
- Avoid horses making their handicap debuts
14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle 3m
2019 Winner: MINELLA INDO (50/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore
Pluses….
- 9 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
- 14 of the last 15 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
- All of the last 15 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
- 5 of the last 8 winners had won a Point
- 8 of the last 15 came from the top 5 in the betting
- 9 of the last 15 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
- 13 of the last 15 had run in a race over 3m
- 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
- 12 of the last 15 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
- 11 of the last 15 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
- 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 4 of the last 14 favourites won
- Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins)
Negatives….
- Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
- Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
- Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
- Willie Mullins is 1 from 35 in the race
- 5 year-olds have a poor record
- Only 4 of the last 15 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase 3m 2½f
2019 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend
Pluses….
- 16 of the last 20 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
- 17 of the last 19 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 17 of the last 20 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
- 10 of the last 14 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
- All of the last 20 winners were Grade 1 winners
- 15 of the last 19 had won or placed at the Festival before
- 16 of the last 19 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
- 18 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
- 11 of the last 12 winners ran 3 or less times that season
- 16 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
- 11 of the last 14 winners won last time out
- 5 of the last 14 favourites won
- ALL of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger
- Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
Negatives….
- Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
- No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
- Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 33
- Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
- Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
- Willie Mullins has only won the race once (2019), 1 from 30 (had last 4 of the last 7 seconds and the 2019 winner though)
- Only 2 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
- Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
- Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase 3m 2½f
2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Rowley
Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards
Pluses…..
- 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
- 25 of the last 34 won last time out
- 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
- 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
- 27 of the last 31 started out in point-to-point races
- 11 of the last 14 winners ran 34 days or less ago
- Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 9)
- 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
- 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
- 8 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
- 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 7, rated 138+)
Negatives….
- Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
- Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
- Just 2 winners in the last 43 years aged 12 or older
- 26 of the last 28 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
- Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
- Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
- Just 1 winner since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
- Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 236 since 1990
- Just 3 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out
16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase 2m ½f
2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
Trainer – Ben Case
Jockey – Kielan Woods
Pluses….
- 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
- 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
- 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal
- Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older
- Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
- The last 9 winners were rated at least 138
- 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
- Novices have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
- 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 140-147
- 7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
- 18 of the last 20 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences
Negatives….
- Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
- Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990
- Last time out winners are just 1 from last 14
- Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 28 since 2005
- Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
- Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record
17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 4½f
2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill
Pluses….
- 10 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
- 8 of the last 9 winners placed in the top 3 last time
- All of the last 11 winners carried 11-1 or more
- 10 of the last 11 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
- 4 of the last 6 winners were Irish-based Novices
- Irish have won 6 of the last 9 (5 making handicap debuts)
- 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
- Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
- 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
- 5 of the 11 winners won last time out
- 5 of the last 6 winners had run over a longer trip that season
- 7 of the 11 winners were rated 133-139
- 7 of the 11 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 11 were 16/1 or less)
- 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 11 runnings
- Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
- Willie Mullins is 3 from 16 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 9 runnings)
- Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
- Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 7 years
- Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
Negatives….
- Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
- Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)
- Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 54
- Only 3 winners have previous Festival experience
- Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-87
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