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2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2020)

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Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY FOUR: Friday 13th March 2020

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (20/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

  • 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 9 of the last 15 places (last 5 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 16 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles last time
  • 6 of the last 11 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 6 years

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12
  • Willie Mullins has a poor record – currently 0-from-27


14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
  • 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 7 of the last 12 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 11 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 12 of the last 14 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 12 of the last 16 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 28 (+18pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 33 (+46pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 4 renewals (last 2)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (146 runners)
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: MINELLA INDO (50/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 14 of the last 15 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • All of the last 15 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 5 of the last 8 winners had won a Point
  • 8 of the last 15 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 15 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 13 of the last 15 had run in a race over 3m
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 14 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 35 in the race
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record
  • Only 4 of the last 15 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 17 of the last 19 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 17 of the last 20 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • All of the last 20 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • 15 of the last 19 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 16 of the last 19 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 11 of the last 12 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 16 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 14 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 14 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record

 

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 33
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race once (2019), 1 from 30 (had last 4 of the last 7 seconds and the 2019 winner though)
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Rowley
Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards

Pluses…..

  • 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 25 of the last 34 won last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 27 of the last 31 started out in point-to-point races
  • 11 of the last 14 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 9)
  • 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 8 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 7, rated 138+)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 43 years aged 12 or older
  • 26 of the last 28 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Just 1 winner since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 236 since 1990
  • Just 3 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
Trainer – Ben Case
Jockey – Kielan Woods

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
  • The last 9 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 14
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 28 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

 

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 9 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 11 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 6 of the last 9 (5 making handicap debuts)
  • 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 5 of the 11 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 6 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 7 of the 11 winners were rated 133-139
  • 7 of the 11 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 11 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 11 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 16 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 9 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 7 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 54
  • Only 3 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-87

 

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Cheltenham Trends: 1st Jan 2020

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A massive day of action at Cheltenham this New Year’s Day as we begin 2019 with the ITV cameras taking in four races.

As always, we are on hand with a look at all the televised races from Prestbury Park from a trends angle – use these stats to help find the best winning profile of past winners of the race.

 

Cheltenham Racing Trends

 

1.25 – Paddy Power Broken Resolutions Already Dipper Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV

17/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
17/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Went onto run in a Cheltenham Festival race (1 winner)
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
13/17 – Won between 1-2 times over fences before
13/17 – Had won over fences at 2m3f or further before
13/17 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/17 – Placed favourites
10/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
7/17 – Returned 5/4 or shorter in the betting
7/17 – Ran at either Sandown or Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Aged 7 years-old
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
1/17 – Went onto win the Arkle Chase (My Way De Solzen, 2007)

 

2.00 –Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV

17/17 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
16/17 – Raced within the last 2 months
15/17 – Had won at least twice over fences before
15/17 – Either French (6) or Irish (9) bred
14/17 – Had won over 2m4f or further (fences) before
14/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Rated 138 or higher
12/17 – Aged 8 or older
11/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/17 – Unplaced last time out
11/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
10/17 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
9/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/17 – Unplaced favourites
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
Aso (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

 

2.35 – Paddy Power 68 Sleeps To Cheltenham Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV

15/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/16 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
13/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
12/16 – Had won a hurdles race over at least 2m4f before
11/16 – Had won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
11/16 – Rated 130 or higher
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Carried 10-9 or more
9/16 – Went onto run in a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
9/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/16 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
6/16 – French bred
5/16 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham before
3/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/16 – Won by a mare
1/15 – Went onto win the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season (Big Buck’s, 2009)

 


3.10 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

13/15 – Went on run in a race at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
13/15 – Won by either a French (5) or Irish (8) bred
13/15 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/15 – Priced 11/2 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
9/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/15 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/15 – Went onto run in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season
6/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/15 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
Midnight Shadow (8/1) won the race in 2019

 

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Cheltenham TV Trends: Fri 13th Dec 2019

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The tapes go up for the opening day of the 2019 Cheltenham December Meeting this Friday (13th December) with FOUR LIVE ITV races from Prestbury Park.

As always, we are on hand with his quick-fire trends ahead of the LIVE races......

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


1:55 – CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services Mares’ Handicap Chase Cl3 2m5f ITV4

Three previous runs
All winners carried 11-3 or more in weight
All winners aged between 6-8 years-old
Synopsis (13/2) won the race in 2018

 

2.30 – CF Roberts 25 Years Of Sponsorship Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

15/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (5 won)
12/17 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
11/17 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Aged 8 or younger
10/17 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
9/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (none won)
9/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
6/17 – Won last time out
5/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
4/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of last 3 runnings)
Cogry (9/1) won the race in 2018
Robinsfirth (7/4) won the race in 2017

 

3.05 –Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase Cl2 3m7f ITV4

14/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/15 – Had run over the Cheltenham Cross Country course before
13/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 won)
12/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
11/15 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out
11/15 – Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
10/15 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/15 – Aged 9 or older
8/15 – Aged in double-figures
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Had won over the Cheltenham Cross Country course before
7/15 – Trained by Enda Bolger
5/15 – Carried 11-12
5/15 – French bred
5/15 – Won last time out
Fact Of The Matter (6/1) won the race 12 months ago
Josie’s Orders won the race in 2015

 

3.40 – Citipost Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV4

13/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
13/16 – Aged 7 or younger
12/16 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Irish bred
12/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 - Priced 15/2 or bigger in the betting
10/16 – Rated between 128 and 137
8/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
8/16 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (one winner)
7/16 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
6/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/16 - Trained by Jonjo O'Neill
Aaron Lad (15/2) won the race in 2018

 

 

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