2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2020)
Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!
DAY TWO: Wednesday 11th March 2020
13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle 2m 5f
2019 Winner: CITY ISLAND 8/1
Trainer –Martin Brassil
Jockey – Mark Walsh
Pluses….
- 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 4 of the last 6 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
- 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
- 15 of the last 19 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
- 19 of the last 25 winners won last time out
- 24 of the last 25 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- The Irish have won 10 of the last 17 (5 of last 6)
- Horses rated 150+ do well
- The last 10 winners all won at least one bumper race
- All of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- In the last 9 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 15 of the 27 top 3 places
- 19 of the last 21 were NH bred
- 13 of the last 21 had won a graded race before
- Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (6 of the last 10 had won an Irish Point)
- Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 7 placed in last 15 years
Negatives….
- Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
- Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
- Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 55 (since 1988)
- Only two of the last 34 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- The last 17 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
- Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 14 years)
14:10 RSA Chase 3m ½f
2019 Winner: TOPOFTHEGAME 4/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden
Pluses….
- 4 of the last 11 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4th Feb) that season
- The last 18 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
- 23 of the last 25 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
- Respect 7 year-olds – won 11 of the last 13 (16 of last 20)
- 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners were beaten on their chase debut
- 7 of the last 12 winners had won a bumper before
- 6 of the last 13 favourites won (50%)
- Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
- Irish bred horses are 19 from the last 23
- 8 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
- 6 of the last 11 winners were trained in Ireland
- Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
- 22 of the last 27 were novice hurdling last season
- 4 of the last 10 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (51 of the last 53 winners had)
- 10 of the last 13 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
Negatives….
- No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
- Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
- Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
- Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
- Just 2 of the last 20 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
- The last 21 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have lost
- Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 20 winners)
- Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
- Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 29
14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f
2019 Winner: WILLIAM HENRY (28/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
Pluses….
- 11 of the last 15 were 2nd season hurdlers
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run at the Festival before
- 9 of the last 11 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
- 8 of the last 11 winners were rated in the 140’s
- 7 of the last 10 winners DIDN’T win last time out
- 11 of the last 14 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
- 18 of the last 25 winners won earlier that season
- Respect JP McManus-owned runners
- Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (5 wins in last 10 years)
- 9 of the last 18 winners were FRENCH-BRED
- 13 of the last 26 won last time out
- Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 11)
- Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 11 winners)
- 13 of the last 15 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
- Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 10
- 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)
Negatives….
- No winning favourite in the last 16 years
- Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
- Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 305 to even place since 1999
- Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
- Only 4 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival previously
- Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
- Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 35 runners – just two placed inside the top 2
15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 2m
2019 Winner: ALTIOR 4/11 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville
Pluses….
- 12 of the last 19 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
- 4 of the last 7 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
- 23 of the last 35 had won at the Festival before
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 12 between them
- Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 8
- 14 of the last 18 winners won last time out
- 16 of the last 17 winners had run that calendar year
- 36 of the last 38 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
- 15 of the last 20 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
- 6 of the last 13 winners were French-bred
- 11 of the last 17 winners were second season chasers
- 13 of the last 15 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
- 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 15 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
- 6 of the last 10 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
- Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once
Negatives….
- Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 37 years
- Just 1 winner in last 15 had run 4+ times that season
- Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 1-from-30
- Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
- Just 1 of the last 18 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
- 12 of the last 14 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
- Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
- Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 46 years
- Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 41 years
16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase 3m 7f
2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL 5/4 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue
Pluses….
- The Irish have won 13 of the last 15 runnings
- Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
- 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top three in the betting
- 8 of the last 15 ran in the December Cross Country race here
- Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 16 between them)
- 12 or the last 15 winners were aged 10 or younger
- Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
- Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings
- 3 of the last 5 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House
Negatives….
- Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
- Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97
- Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
- Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
- Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13
16:50 Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m ½f
2019 Winner: BAND OF OUTLAWS7/2 fav
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – J J Slevin
Pluses….
- 10 of the last 15 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
- French bred horses have a good record
- Respect Fillies
- 7 of the last 9 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
- 10 of the last 15 had run in the last 25 days
- David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
- 6 of the last 8 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
- 10 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price
- Respect horses wearing headgear
- 12 of the last 15 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
- 8 of the last 12 winners were British-trained
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
- 11 of the last 15 winners had won no more than once over hurdles
Negatives….
- Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
- Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 32 between them
- Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
- Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
- No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
- Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 0 from the last 10 years
- British-bred runners are currently 0-51
17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 2m ½f
2019 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 2/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd
Pluses….
- 25 of the last 27 had won last time out (all of last 16)
- 20of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
- Respect Irish-trained runners (20 from 36)
- 4 of the last 10 winners were won by UK-based trainers
- 18 of the last 27 came from the top 6 in the betting
- 20 of the last 27 were Irish-bred
- 10 of the last 19 winners were second season horses
- 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 17 of the last 27 winners aged 5 years-old
- 17 of the last 19 had their debut runs in Ireland
- 11 of the last 17 had been beaten in a race before
- 6 of the last 10 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
- Respect Willie Mullins (9 winners) – also had first three in 2018, but is just 3 from last 35 runners
- The Irish lead the British 21-7 in the race history
- Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
- 9 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
Negatives….
- Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
- Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
- 4 year-olds are 1 from 60 since 2000 (Cue Card)
- Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race
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I’m looking to find some value in the festival handicaps but obviously there is a lot of entries. For those of us who are less informed on how the fields are reduced, is Geegeez able to give us a few hints.
The trend of ‘8 of the last 13 winners carried 10-13 or less’ in the Cross Country Chase can now be removed as the race is no longer a Handicap.