Tag Archive for: Venetia Williams

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

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Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

/by

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2019

/by

Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Newcastle : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, close up on inside when fell 5 out)

Boxing Day's pick runs in the...

1.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding was a winner LTO, 8 days ago, triumphant on similarly soft ground at Ludlow in another Class 3 handicap chase under today's jockey, Charlie Deutsch.

He's by Walk In The Park, whose soft ground handicap chasers are 6 from 19 (31.6%) SR) for 26.4pts (+138.9% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • 6/15 (40%) for 30.4pts (+202.6%) at 2m1.5f to 3m2f
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 32.4pts (+249.1%) at 2/1 to 10/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.05pts (+72.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 8.05pts (+201.3%) when all three of the above are in play as they are today.

This horse hails from the in-form Venetia Williams yard, one that thrives at this time of year and does well in poorer conditions. In fact, Venetia's runners are 13 from 26 (50% SR) for 31.6pts (+121.6% ROI) since the morning of the 11th December, whilst more generally over the last five Decembers, her Class 2 to 4 handicappers are 41/160 (25.6% SR) for 101.9pts (+63.7% ROI), including...

  • 38/141 (27%) for 108.9pts (+77.3%) from male runners
  • 35/102 (34.3%) for 121.7pts (+119.3%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 34/120 (28.3%) for 103.9pts (+86.6%) in races worth £4k to £17k to the winner
  • 28/85 (32.9%) for 108.7pts (+127.9%) over 2m3f to 2m7.5f
  • 28/71 (39.4%) for 62.2pts (+87.6%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.4pts (+74.5%) on Soft ground
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 25.1pts (+41.9%) under Charlie Deutsch
  • and 16/73 (21.9%) for 38.9pts (+53.3%) at Class 3...

...whilst 4-7 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 over 2m3f to 2m7.5f chasing pots of £4 to 17k are 14/22 (63.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+203.6% ROI) and these include 8/13 (61.5%) for Charlie Deutsch, 7/13 (53.9%) at Class 3, 7/10 (70%) on soft ground and 3 from 4 (75%) with Charlie riding a Class 3 runner on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.50pm on Christmas Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2019

/by

Monday's pick was...

4.45 Wolverhampton : Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/4 (Raced wide close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, soon chased leader, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, led close home, winning by a nose!)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Conditional Jockeys Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

It has been almost 11 months and nine defeats since this 11 yr old gelding last ran off a mark (OR) lower than 120 (my 50th birthday to be precise, but that's another matter!) and that was also his last win, so I'm glad to see him back off a winnable mark and not having any younger, fitter runners to deal with.

He's never been prolific (5/46 = 10.9% SR), but a quick look a this wins/best runs would suggest he's more likely to win any/some/all of the following are present...

  • a run in the previous 7 weeks (ran 19 days ago)
  • sent off at 5/1 or shorter (we're on at 10/3)
  • going left handed (tick)
  • handicap chases (tick)
  • soft or worse (heavy today)
  • OR lower than 120 (119 here)
  • wearing cheekpieces (tick)
  • running at Class 3/4 (C3 today)

...and when going left handed at 5/1 or shorter after 6 weeks rest or less, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.41pts (+148.1% ROI) including 2 from 2 on soft or worse and 1/1 on heavy.

He is trained by Venetia Williams, one of my trainers to watch in the closing stages of the year (and also one of the trainers that switched me on to the statistical side of betting, but again that's another story for another day), as her chasers are 104 from 567 (18.3% SR) for 227.2pts (+40.1% ROI) during the closing two months of the year over the past nine years, with every year bar 2017 showing healthy strike rates and ROI figures.

And from the 567 November/December chasers since 2011...

  • 99/514 (19.3%) for 218.9pts (+42.6%) in handicaps
  • 98/515 (19%) for 237.9pts (+46.2%) from male runners
  • 94/474 (19.8%) for 204.5pts (+43.2%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 71/361 (19.7%) for 116.5pts (+32.3%) on soft/heavy (the stat probably most well known)
  • 49/233 (21%) for 106.1pts (+45.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 29/134 (21.6%) for 63.6pts (+47.5%) off marks of 110-120
  • and 13/72 (18.1%) for 42pts (+58.3%) since the start of 2018 (so we're not using old data as a crutch!)

...whilst from the above, Class 2-4 male handicappers on soft or worse are 59/265 (22.3% SR) for 108.6pts (+41% ROI), a handy little micro for 30-ish bets a year, but if 15 or so bets in a month from one angle is too much, then you could re-filter using the initial parameters to get...

  • 31/109 (28.4%) for 90.4pts (+83%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 19/78 (24.4%) for 25.1pts (+32.2%) off an OR of 110-120
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 18.65pts (+53.3%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 17.67pts (+50.5%) in 2018/19
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.5pts (+283.3%) at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.82pts (+97.7%) off 110-120 in 2018/19
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.27pts (+106.8%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19...

...and this possible over-dilution points to...a 1pt win bet on Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (10/3)  or Coral/Ladbrokes (3/1) or Betfair/PaddyPower/Hills (3/1) respectively (third grouping not BOG until raceday, mind) at 5.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!