Tag Archive for: Venetia Williams

Williams on weather watch for National hope Royale Pagaille

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Venetia Williams will keep an eye on the weather before deciding whether or not Royale Pagaille will run in the Randox Grand National.

The Rich Ricci-owned nine-year-old had chased home Bravemansgame in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day and was then held back for a crack at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

However, the mud-loving gelding did not get the ground connections had hoped for and he finished sixth to Galopin Des Champs.

Williams became only the second woman to train a Grand National winner after Jenny Pitman following Mon Mome’s 100-1 shock victory in 2009.

She has Royale Pagaille and both Haydock’s National Trial winner and third, Quick Wave and Cloudy Glen, in consideration for the Aintree spectacular on April 15.

The Kings Caple-based handler is now waiting on the weather forecasts before making any decisions, in particular where Royale Pagaille will run next, with both the Grand National and the Irish edition of the race – where he would shoulder top-weight – under consideration.

She said: “They are all fine. Royale Pagaille ran well.

“A week before, I thought he would get the ground he liked, with all the rain that was promised, yet it didn’t really come.

“But he still ran a super race. He will have have another run. He is in both the Irish and the English Nationals and there is no decision yet as to where he goes. Likewise, we will see how the others are before making any plans.”

Williams gained Grade One glory with L’Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase and Chambard took the Kim Muir at last year’s Festival, while Funambule Silvola was a gallant runner-up in the Champion Chase and Pink Legend finished runner-up in the Mares’ Chase.

Following that was always going to be a big ask and she did not have the same fortune at the National Hunt highlight this time round.

Reflecting on the meeting, she said: “We had such an amazing Cheltenham last year, we ended up running everything that got a run in it this year, which was probably a bit more gung-ho than we should have been.

“We still had some good runs. Pink Legend was third in the Mares’ Chase, and that was a fantastic run in a much deeper race than last year. She reversed placings with the horse that beat her last year (Elimay).

“Green Book finished fourth in the Pertemps, only beaten three lengths, and Royale Pagaille we were delighted with.

“Funambule Sivola was fine after his fall in the Champion Chase. That was a real disappointment, as I thought he had a really good chance of running into a place again.

“He has been such a brilliant jumper that it caught him by surprise, as it did everyone else. He is fine, though.”

Quick Wave prevails in National Trial thriller

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Quick Wave strengthened her Aintree claims with victory in a thrilling renewal of the Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock.

The Venetia Williams-trained mare was one of only four runners in the 14-strong field with an entry in the Randox Grand National and her odds for the world’s most famous steeplechase were unsurprisingly slashed following a tenacious display on Merseyside.

Quick Wave lined up with questions to answer after being pulled up when favourite for the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow in December and was an 18-1 shot in the hands of Harry Bannister.

Her stablemate Cloudy Glen, who also holds an Aintree engagement and was making his first appearance in over a year, raced with zest on the front end for much of the three-and-a-half-mile journey, while Bannister was more patient aboard his mount.

With Cloudy Glen beginning to feel effects of his early exertions, it turned into a straight shootout from halfway up the straight, with popular mare Snow Leopardess and Quick Wave going at it.

There was little to choose between the pair jumping the final fence and both gave it their all, but it was Quick Wave who just found most for pressure to prevail by three-quarters of a length.

Betfred cut the winner to 25-1 from 50s for the Grand National, while Paddy Power offer 33-1 ahead of the publication of the weights on Tuesday.

Bannister, riding his first winner since returning from a serious hip injury, said: “I can’t take too much credit, she’s a lovely mare. Credit to Venetia and the team who had her spot-on today.

“Venetia is an exceptional trainer and it means a lot to get this winner back. It’s been a long road and there’s lots of people to thank.

“I probably ended up a bit closer to the inner than I would have liked, but we saved what we could, she’s jumped really well and travels so strongly and stays well.

“She showed her staying credentials and she appreciated being back on this better ground after the Welsh National.”

Charlie Longsdon was delighted with the performance of runner-up Snow Leopardess, who will not run in this year’s Grand National after pulling up in the race last season, but she is set for an appearance at next month’s Cheltenham Festival.

Snow Leopardess in action at Cheltenham
Snow Leopardess in action at Cheltenham (David Davies/PA)

“She’s run an absolute cracker to be honest. It’s great to get her back on the form we want her to be in and there’s no disgrace in finishing second,” he said.

“We’re gutted not to win of course, but that’s neither here nor there and that will hopefully set her up nicely for the cross-country next month.

“She gets her 7lb claim (at Cheltenham) and I’m hopeful we can sneak into the place there. She’s been a superstar mare for us and I can’t ask any more from her.”

Luccia impresses with Exeter stroll

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Nicky Henderson’s Luccia opened up further Cheltenham Festival options with a straightforward victory in the Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Novices’ Hurdle at Exeter.

Unbeaten in three starts prior to the run, the chestnut brought forward flawless bumper form and an existing Listed hurdle win gained at Newbury in November.

Not seen since after her Tolworth preparations were interrupted by an unsatisfactory scope, Luccia was nevertheless the 8-13 favourite under Nico de Boinville.

She travelled happily throughout and swept past her rivals with ease when asked, only giving connections a sole moment of doubt with a cat-leap at last.

Her 11-length Listed victory was still easily achieved, however, and she remains undefeated.

“She’s good, isn’t she? She’s been amazing because she had two bumpers last year and then we seriously nearly lost her,” Henderson told Racing TV.

“She had an extraordinary incident and she was as close to being put down as you’ll see. We didn’t know if she’d come back at all or if she’d be able to jump, it was a hind-end injury.

“We were a bit brave, we started her in a Listed race and she won that really well, then she had a dirty scope like one or two of them over the winter.

“This was the perfect race and the perfect timing just to get one more run into her. To be fair, it looked competitive and like it was going to be a good test but it didn’t seem to phase her at all.”

Of her less fluent attempt at the last flight, the trainer added: “She jumps well, we do a lot of extra schooling with her in the indoor school. Nico loves going round there on her, it just helps her technique a little bit.

Luccia on her hurdling debut
Luccia on her hurdling debut (John Walton/PA)

“Rather than just hurdling, she learns to jump properly and she does jump well, she was just untidy at the last but otherwise she was very quick and economical all the way round. I’ve got to say I was impressed.”

The Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle was always the intended target for Luccia, but the triumph has brought the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle into the equation come March.

“I’d say the mares’, personally,” said Henderson.

To the suggestion that she is good enough for the Supreme, he then added: “That’s what my jockey said – we’ve got four weeks to discuss it.”

Henderson and De Boinville enjoyed a treble on the card with The Carpenter (7-4) on the mark in the Virgin Bet British Stallion Studs EBF ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle, while Walking On Air (15-8 favourite) proved too good in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle.

Venetia Williams’ Pink Legend returned to winning ways to land the Listed Virgin Bet Best Odds Daily Mares’ Chase under Charlie Deutsch.

Charlie Deutsch and Pink Legend at Ascot
Charlie Deutsch and Pink Legend at Ascot (Simon Marper/PA)

The nine-year-old was a 4-1 chance for the contest and made all of the running over the three-mile trip, her main pursuer being Jeremy Scott’s 11-10 favourite Kissesforkatie.

Four from home the two locked horns and it was Pink Legend that pulled away and stayed on well to claim a five-length victory ahead of Scott’s mare, with the Williams-trained stablemate Kapga De Lily a further half-length behind.

“I’m really delighted, obviously we wanted to get a bit of black type for Kapga De Lily,” said Williams.

“Pink Legend can sometimes be a bit of a law unto herself. Frank Mahon, who owns her, has always been assertive about the ground and said on good ground she likes it.

“He’s absolutely right and Charlie said as soon as she jumped off she was straight into the bridle, she jumped the first and she was off.

“It’s her first time back over three miles for a while, she enjoyed the tempo and everybody was very happy to have somebody to make the running. It was great.”

Funambule Sivola bounces back to defend Game Spirit crown

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Funambule Sivola returned to form to record back-to-back success in the Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase at Newbury, in which hot favourite Greaneteen finished only third of the four runners.

The Venetia Williams-trained eight-year-old was on the crest of a wave when winning this race 12 months ago and went on to finish a very creditable second to Energumene in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham.

However, in three previous runs this season he had looked a shadow of his former self and he was sent off 7-1 to return to winning ways.

Prominent throughout, Charlie Deutsch always looked happy whereas Greaneteen did not make life easy for Harry Cobden, racing keen early and making niggly errors.

With Elixir De Nutz running in snatches and Malystic’s jumping leaving him with plenty to do, Funambule Sivola ended up running out a three and a half length winner from Elixir De Nutz.

Williams said: “The only time he’s run poorly was at Kempton at Christmas.

“Cheltenham last time he had every chance turning for home and probably in a truly-run race at a good gallop, he probably doesn’t really stay two miles round Cheltenham. You’d question that with being second in the Champion Chase at the Festival. They called that heavy, but it was just wet, there wasn’t any great depth.

“I have to give Charlie a lot of credit, not just for a superb ride, but also the chat we had before the race and he said this horse loves this ground and this has got to be his race.

“The worry about this horse is that he had a tendon injury before we ever ran him, so you are trying to be a little more careful with those type of horses.

“But he is a small horse, he is a quick horse and you have a tricky dilemma – you are trying to mind him, but at the same time, it is what he enjoys.

“The Champion Chase will be his next run.”

Green Book set to head straight for Pertemps challenge

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Green Book will head straight to the Pertemps Hurdle at Cheltenham after a popular success at Sandown on Saturday.

The six-year-old showed plenty of determination to take the Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle under Charlie Deutsch, following up his victory in the extended two miles and seven furlongs race last year.

Trainer Venetia Williams was full of praise for the Authorized gelding, who went on to be a fair fifth in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle last season.

The Kings Caple handler admitted he is not typical of the horses she usually buys, however.

“I haven’t bought many off the Flat in the last few years, but he’s been a superstar,” she said.

“I bought him unseen from the sales. I told my agent, ‘Don’t look at him’, because I thought if he looked at him, he’d say, ‘No, he’s not like a jumper’. So I said, ‘Just buy him. I want him’.

“I liked his breeding, I’d watched all his races and I thought they were under-tripping him in France and thought he was crying out for a trip.”

Green Book, who is out of an Oratorio mare, won just once in 17 races on the Flat, but has been a money-spinner since joining the Herefordshire yard, taking four of his 11 starts over hurdles and finishing runner-up on another two occasions.

He stayed on doggedly up the Sandown hill for the second time in as many years, having looked disinterested through the first part of the race.

Williams added: “The whole way round, he was looking like it was all too much like hard work, but yet he keeps doing it. Just a few strides before the line, he pricked his ears.

“He probably won’t run before the Pertemps at the Festival.”

After a quiet spell, the yard has hit form over the last week, Gemirande brought up an across-the-card brace on Saturday.

Gemirande jumped for fun at Wetherby
Gemirande jumped for fun at Wetherby (Steven Paston/PA)

The seven-year-old produced an impressive round of jumping under Shane Quinlan at Wetherby to take the William Hill Cheltenham Preview At Wetherby Handicap Chase by five and a half lengths.

Williams said: “He is one of the few of ours that I’ve been happy enough to run on goodish ground.

“It wasn’t good ground, but it was goodish. He loved it. He might go to the Greatwood at Newbury in early March.”

Williams taking direct Gold Cup route with Royale Pagaille

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Royale Pagaille is back in work and will head straight to the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup after recovering from injury, trainer Venetia Williams has confirmed.

The Rich Ricci-owned nine-year-old was runner-up to Bravemansgame in the King George VI Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day, staying on nicely under Tom Scudamore in the three-mile Grade One event.

Winner of the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last season, he went on to finish fifth to A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup and has had just two starts since.

He was somewhat fortunate to claim second place on his last run, with Williams’ other runner, L’Homme Presse, unseating Charlie Deutsch at the last fence when a close-up second.

However, the run can be marked up a little, given that Royale Pagaille sustained an injury in the race.

Williams has now run out of time to give him a Gold Cup prep, for which he is a 40-1 chance with Coral.

Speaking at Hereford on Monday, the trainer said: “Royale Pagaille is fine. He needed time after the King George because he got a wound which wasn’t superficial, so that’s why it has taken quite a while.

“He is back on the gallops now and he will go straight to the Gold Cup. We haven’t got time to go for anything else.”

Edwards keeping the faith with ‘magnificent’ L’Homme Presse

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Connections have hailed L’Homme Presse’s effort in the King George VI Chase as “magnificent” after subsequent tests found he was carrying an injury.

Having jumped markedly left throughout the Kempton feature on Boxing Day, the Venetia Williams-trained eight-year-old unseated Charlie Deutsch at the last fence when a close-up second to Bravemansgame.

He returned stiff and sore and having been given a little time to recuperate, the Diamond Boy gelding underwent a thorough veterinary examination last week, the results of which saw connections draw stumps on the idea of running in the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.

“There are a couple of issues, both temporary,” said Andy Edwards, who owns the horse under the DFA Racing banner in partnership with Pam Edwards and Peter and Pat Pink.

“He had a few days off in his paddock and has been trotting up fine.

“He has been walking and trotting under saddle, but we decided to give him a full MOT, because he did jump so far to the left at Kempton.

“He moves soundly and you would not think there was anything untoward, but when we got the results, they were not what we were expecting.

“He needs some time and, talking to the vets, it would not be an ideal preparation to rush him into a Gold Cup. Our horse’s health and happiness comes above everything. He is only eight, he can go to the Gold Cup next year.

“The most important thing is doing right by our horse.”

Andy Edwards/Hereford
Andy Edwards remains upbeat despite L’Homme Presse missing Cheltenham (Simon Milham/PA)

A dual Grade One winner as a novice, L’Homme Presse took the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown and the Brown Advisory at last year’s Festival.

He then recorded a comfortable victory in his comeback run under Deutsch in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle.

Things did not go according to plan at Kempton, with conditions not ideal and the track’s configuration playing to his main rivals’ strengths, as connections had stated beforehand.

Edwards added: “I watched him going to the start and I thought he didn’t quite look right behind – he didn’t go down as smoothly as he normally does.

“When he jumped the third fence, I said ‘he’s not right’. When he jumped the fourth, I said ‘he’s definitely not right’.

“So it was very hard to watch the race in the stands, as I could feel he was in pain. So, for him to do what he did, to be a close second jumping the last, is absolutely phenomenal considering he was carrying an issue that we were unaware of.

A bitter blow for Venetia Williams and the team at the Kings Caple yard
A bitter blow for Venetia Williams and the team at the Kings Caple yard (Mike Egerton/PA)

“My immediate emotion after the race was one of humility. I was completely humbled by the fact that he had given so much.

“Afterwards, I went into the box with him and stayed with him for some while, and could not help but think how amazing he was and what a magnificent horse he was, to be able to achieve what he did, given the adverse situation.

“The fact that he was carrying an issue, for him to run as well as he did, makes him an incredible racehorse.”

Edwards concedes that for Williams and the rest of the team at the King’s Caple yard, it is a huge disappointment.

“Emotions are running high,” he said. “It is hard for all of us. It is hard for Beth (Baldwin) the groom, Kevin (O’Keeffe), who rides him out every day, Jess (O’Keeffe) the head lass – it is a big blow for all the yard, for us as owners and for Venetia.

“At the same time, by making this decision to give him the time he needs, it will hopefully lead to even greater things in the future.

“He was magnificent in the King George and he will be magnificent again.

“Cheltenham isn’t the be-all and end-all. There are other races and we will see how he is in a few weeks’ time, however Aintree is not a consideration.

L'Homme Presse unseated Charlie Deutsch at the last in the King Georg
L’Homme Presse unseated Charlie Deutsch at the last in the King George (John Walton/PA)

“The issues he has are not life-threatening nor career-ending. He is a young horse and there is so much to look forward to.

“There is another Gold Cup next year, there are other great races to come.

“Sometimes the consequence of something you may believe is bad, may well be good. We are are doing the right thing by him.

“I truly believe he will become an even better horse for this. We are not in any rush. He will be given the time, patience and care he needs. He’ll tell us when he’s right and ready – keep the faith.”

L’Homme Presse ruled out of Cheltenham Gold Cup

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Leading Cheltenham Gold Cup contender L’Homme Presse will miss the Festival showpiece in March, connections have announced.

The winner of six of his eight starts over fences, the eight-year-old had run a fine race in the King George VI Chase at Kempton Park on Boxing Day before unseating Charlie Deutsch at the last fence, where he just looked to be held at the time by Bravemansgame.

Last season saw him win twice at the highest level – in the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown and the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival.

He had reappeared this season with a fine weight-carrying performance in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle and was behind only the Willie Mullins-trained Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup market.

Charlie Deutsch celebrates with L'Homme Presse at Cheltenham
Charlie Deutsch celebrates with L’Homme Presse at Cheltenham (Tim Goode/PA)

A statement issued on behalf of trainer Venetia Williams and owners DFA Racing to the PA news agency on Friday read: “We have given L’Homme Presse some time to get over his exertions in the King George before carrying out some veterinary investigations which have concluded today.

“Unfortunately, these have revealed that he has a couple of issues that, although temporary, mean that he will not be able to run in this year’s Gold Cup.

“He will be given time and patience to recover fully and we will monitor his rehabilitation over the next few weeks before making a decision on any future races in the spring.”

Gamaret does everything right on chasing bow

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When the mud is flying, so are Venetia Williams’ horses. That is an adage that invariably holds true and the King’s Caple handler recorded winner number 17 for the season when Gamaret made a winning seasonal and chasing bow at a rain-lashed Newbury.

Charlie Deutsch gave the Coastal Path gelding a polished ride and the 5-2 favourite went on to take the Coral First For Horse Racing Handicap Chase by two and a quarter lengths from Gallic Geordie, having jumped well throughout.

Gamaret, owned by Kennet Valley Thoroughbreds, took a Fontwell maiden hurdle in February and was having his first run since.

Deutsch said: “The fences are quite big, they went a good gallop and the ground is testing. He handled it really well. He’s a nice horse for the future.”

Williams added: “It was only two miles and first time over fences, two miles at Newbury on more traditional, drier ground would have been sharp enough, so the rain slowed the pace down a bit.

“He is a nice horse, but we mustn’t get carried away as he was running off 115.”

Owner Andrew John is relatively new to racing, having sold his pump business in Port Talbot 18 months ago.

Midnight Ginger (8-1) has certainly kept his enthusiasm flowing, registering her fifth career success for trainer Andrew Martin, gamely fending off Lime Drop to score by a length and three-quarters under 7lb claimer James Martin in the two-and-a-half-mile mares’ handicap hurdle.

“It is fantastic,” said John. “I know nothing about racing at all. I’ve always been a casual fan. We’ve had her 14 months and she has done so well for us. She is so gutsy.

“I think Andy wants to put her over fences, but I know nothing about it. I’m a novice – beginner’s luck.”

Blenkinsop and Tom O'Brien power to victory in the mud
Blenkinsop and Tom O’Brien power to victory in the mud (Nigel French/PA)

Blenkinsop is becoming a force to be reckoned with over hurdles, registering a fourth successive victory for trainer Henry Daly in powering to an easy success in the extended two-and-a-half-mile handicap hurdle.

The progressive son of Westerner recoded a hat-trick with plenty to spare at Exeter a month ago and the 100-30 chance duly repeated the trick under Tom O’Brien.

The mud-splattered winning rider said: “There was one point where I couldn’t see where I was going.

“He is improving massively and Henry fancied him. I rode him like I had a lot of faith in him. I was going wide and a few lengths back and we didn’t go that quick early.

“He won at Exeter the last day and it would have been good to soft and you could see he would have preferred softer. He is best on soft, I’d say, but it is going heavy (ground) now.”

He added: “Henry is flying and is a very astute placer of horses and he gets the maximum out of what he’s got.”

Lily Pinchin is riding plenty of winners, with Tea For Free the latest. The Charlie Longsdon-trained gelding produced a fine round of jumping in the Coral-sponsored limited handicap chase and earned something of a marriage proposal from the winning rider.

Tea For Free was expertly steered by Lily Pinchin
Tea For Free was expertly steered by Lily Pinchin (Nigel French/PA)

After the 3lb claimer brought home the 7-1 chance for a fourth successive success, she said: “He is very routine and he is very clever. If he was a bloke I’d marry him!

“He is a lovely horse – he is so quick, he is so nimble, he’s so fast through the air. He is just a gentleman and does his work, eats his food, goes to bed, runs and wins.

“My aim always was to ride my claim out, but then I found a great guy and a great trainer in Charlie Longsdon. He has just supported me to the top and I am very, very lucky now – I have great trainers around me.

“I’d love to ride for as long as I could, but you need the support and at the moment, I am very lucky I have that support. Long may it continue, long may it last.”

Stat of the Day, 14th February 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

3.00 Leicester : Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1 (Not always fluent, in rear on outside, some headway 9th, hit 12th, soon well beaten)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £6,433 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, one of the benefits of posting the picks just after 8.00am means we've avoided a non-runner today, after my first choice was scheduled to run at Sandown, hence me going with one slightly shorter in price than I'd normally put up for you (hopefully, there'll be a bit of an early-morning drift). That doesn't, of course, mean that I don't expect to have a winner!

So, why this 6 yr old mare? Well, she's lightly (just 5 starts to date) raced, but has 3 wins and a runner-up finish (odds-on defeat by just a neck at Carlisle LTO 11 days ago) to her name already and aside from her own suitability to the task ahead, I've a few other strands of data that suggest a good run is due here, so I'll try to keep it as brief as I can, starting with...

..the horse, whose 17112 form line includes...

  • 1711 going left handed
  • 112 at Class 4
  • 112 on Soft or softer
  • 112 under jockey Gavin Sheehan (more on him in a moment)
  • and 1 from 1 here at Fakenham

After her narrow defeat at odds-on LTO, she'll look to bounce back quickly and the omens are good as since the start of 2017 in UK NH handicaps, horses turned back out within 30 days of an odds-on defeat of 2 lengths or shorter are 19 from 59 (32.2% SR) for 25.8pts (+43.8% ROI) profit, including the following at play today...

  • 16/30 (53.3%) for 31.8pts (+106%) at odds of evens to 5/1
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 23pts (+104.5%) at Class 4
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 13.1pts (+38.6%) over hurdles
  • and 7/13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+167.1%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

...with Class 4 runners sent off at evens to 5/1 winning 11 of 16 (68.75% SR) for 20.95pts (+168.4% ROI) profit.

...and now to the jockey. Gavin Sheehan is in good touch right now, having won 5 of 19 (26.3% SR) for 13.5pts (+71.1% ROI) already this month, including of relevance today...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 22.5pts (+225%) at evens to 8/1
  • 3/10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%) in novice races
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.2pts (+124.3%) in handicaps
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.9pts (+218%) on soft ground

and finally our trainer today is Miss Venetia Williams, about whom I have many profitable angles, but we'll just quickly look at two for today, starting with an angle I loosely label "Winter 3m+". Basically some trainers fare better than others with stayers in the main NH season. In Venetia's case, backing her runners during October to April at evens to 8/1 is very successful.

Since the start of 2017, this approach has generated 32 winners from 120 (26.7% SR) for 73.6pts (+61.4% ROI) profit, broken down under today's conditions as follows...

  • 16/49 (32.7%) for 47.9pts (+97.8%) on soft ground
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.7pts (+50.4%) at Class 4
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 20.4pts (+119.9%) in February
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.5%) 11-15 days after their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 15.3pts (+95.8%) with female runners
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 12pts (+133.3%) in novice contests

The other angle I want to touch on before eventually (I didn't want you all to think that second choice meant I'd put less effort in!) signing off on this one is Miss Williams' record in Class 4 handicap hurdles, because at odds of evens to 9/1 since the start of 2017 she has definitely been worth following with 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) producing profits of 24.3pts at a decent ROI of 42.6% including...

  • 10/44 (22.7%) for 10.14pts (+23.1%) on soft or softer ground
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.4pts (+96.7%) from her 6 yr olds
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.04pts (+168%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

...all of which has steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Friday (with plenty of 11/4 appearing from 8.30 onwards!), but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Fakenham

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Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!