Tag Archive for: Stat of the day

Stat of the Day, 27th December 2019

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Boxing Day's pick was...

1.20 Kempton : Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Raced keenly, led until fell 10th)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, All Weather Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Simon Crisford's three-year-old handicap debutant was a winner on his most recent start.

Let's break that down:

Crisford with handicap debutants is 16 from 62, 14 further places (25.8%, A/E 1.15, IV 2.59) in the last two years

With handicap debutants at Wolverhampton, he is 4 from 9, three further places (44.44%, +14.63, A/E 2.09, IV 4.29)

His overall Wolver handicap record in the last five years is an impressive 14 from 45, 13 further places (31.11%, +26.08, A/E 1.3, IV 3.01)

With last time out winners, Crisford is 28 from 109 in the last two years (22 further places). That's 25.69% winners, +1.27, A/E 1.00, IV 1.34.

Classic Design is a son of Pivotal, whose progeny perform well on the all-weather:

In the last two years, they are 54 from 355 (78 further places), for +7.76 (A/E 1.01, IV 1.47), with three-year-olds winning at about 20%.

And, if you don't mind mashing these things together, Pivotal progeny aged three in Wolverhampton handicaps are 11 from 38 (5 further places, +34.78, A/E 1.68, IV 2.77)

Classic Design does have a tricky draw in stall 11, but he was a facile winner last time and has plenty statistically in his favour...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.15pm on Boxing Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2019

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Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Newcastle : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, close up on inside when fell 5 out)

Boxing Day's pick runs in the...

1.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding was a winner LTO, 8 days ago, triumphant on similarly soft ground at Ludlow in another Class 3 handicap chase under today's jockey, Charlie Deutsch.

He's by Walk In The Park, whose soft ground handicap chasers are 6 from 19 (31.6%) SR) for 26.4pts (+138.9% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • 6/15 (40%) for 30.4pts (+202.6%) at 2m1.5f to 3m2f
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 32.4pts (+249.1%) at 2/1 to 10/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.05pts (+72.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 8.05pts (+201.3%) when all three of the above are in play as they are today.

This horse hails from the in-form Venetia Williams yard, one that thrives at this time of year and does well in poorer conditions. In fact, Venetia's runners are 13 from 26 (50% SR) for 31.6pts (+121.6% ROI) since the morning of the 11th December, whilst more generally over the last five Decembers, her Class 2 to 4 handicappers are 41/160 (25.6% SR) for 101.9pts (+63.7% ROI), including...

  • 38/141 (27%) for 108.9pts (+77.3%) from male runners
  • 35/102 (34.3%) for 121.7pts (+119.3%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 34/120 (28.3%) for 103.9pts (+86.6%) in races worth £4k to £17k to the winner
  • 28/85 (32.9%) for 108.7pts (+127.9%) over 2m3f to 2m7.5f
  • 28/71 (39.4%) for 62.2pts (+87.6%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.4pts (+74.5%) on Soft ground
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 25.1pts (+41.9%) under Charlie Deutsch
  • and 16/73 (21.9%) for 38.9pts (+53.3%) at Class 3...

...whilst 4-7 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 over 2m3f to 2m7.5f chasing pots of £4 to 17k are 14/22 (63.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+203.6% ROI) and these include 8/13 (61.5%) for Charlie Deutsch, 7/13 (53.9%) at Class 3, 7/10 (70%) on soft ground and 3 from 4 (75%) with Charlie riding a Class 3 runner on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.50pm on Christmas Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 16th to 21st December 2019

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From a "picking the right horses" perspective, it wasn't a bad week really. A non-runner plus three placers and a well-positioned faller from our six picks isn't bad going at all. Sadly, Monday's 10/3 success was the only winner on the week, meaning another small overall loss.

So, as a result, December continues to be tough for horses, riders and punters alike and the upshot is that I'm going to need at least two, if not three winners from the last five picks of the year to make December profitable. It won't be easy, but it's not impossible!

The coming week is a short one, due to the Christmas break, leaving me with just three picks, so come back next Sunday to see if I've made any inroads into the winners I need!

Selections & Results : 16/12/19 to 21/12/19

16/12 : Out The Glen @ 10/3 WON at 3/1
17/12 : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3
18/12 : Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 2/1
19/12 : Elzaam's Dream @ 9/2 3rd at 3/1
20/12 : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner
21/12 : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2

16/12/19 to 21/12/19 :
1 winning bet from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -0.67pts

December 2019 :
3 winners from 17 = 17.65% SR
P/L: -4.84pts
ROI = -28.47%

2019 to date :
66 winners from 285 = 23.16% SR
P/L: +40.46pts
ROI = +14.20%

Overall:
656 winners from 2461 = 26.66% S.R
P/L: +536.87pts
ROI: +21.82%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

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Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th December 2019

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Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Wolverhampton : Elzaam's Dream @ 9/2 3rd at 3/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, nearest finish : basically a slow start, picked up and ran on, but got going a bit too late!)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W Handicap for 3yo= over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is in really good nick right now, placed in each of her last three outings (all under today's jockey, 5lb claimer, Faye McManoman), including winning her last two starts, firstly over 6f on this track in early November and then again 18 days later/25 days ago over this 7f trip at Chelmsford.

It seems to have taken a while for the penny to drop with this filly, but she's now flying and conditions look ideal today, as from her overall 2 from 13 record, she is...

  • 2/10 on the A/W and 2/10 as a 3 yr old
  • 2/8 over 6/7 furlongs
  • 2/7 at Class 6, 2/7 after 1-4 weeks rest, 2/7 in fields of 12-14 runners and 2/7 going left handed
  • 2/5 under jockey Faye McManoman

...and when all eight of the above are aligned as they are today, she is 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 25.28pts (+1264% ROI) at Betfair SP.

Trainer Charles Smith's LTO winners are 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.43pts (+377.6% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter in handicaps over the last five years, including 3 from 5 (60%) for 28.43pts (+568.6%) in larger (ie 10-14 runners) fields.

Those LTO stats are clearly from a small sample size, because Charles is hardly prolific with just 14 winners from 271 (5.17% SR) for a loss of 70.87pts (-26.2% ROI) backed blindly over that same 5 yr period, so why/how is he still in business and why have I picked one of his horses?

Well, like most "run of the mill" (no disrespect intended) trainers, Charles has an area/niche where he does far better than his average would suggest and in Charles' case, it seems to be Class 5/6, A/W handicaps here at Southwell over 7-8 furlongs. Such runners win more than twice as often as Charles's average SR and produce a healthy profit from blind backing.

Numerically, we're talking 10 winners from 89 (11.24% SR), so that's 71.4% of all the yard's winners over the last 5 years from just 32.8% of the runners and backing each of them to a £10 stake would have netted £768.10 at an ROI of some 86.3%! A simple further refinement of this angle would be to just back those ridden by a jockey with a weight claim, which eradicates almost half of the 89 bets, but only removes 1 winner!

...as Charles Smith + C5/6 + Southwell A/W hcps + 7-8f + 3-7lb jockey claim = 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 112.85pts (+250.8% ROI) over the last 5 yrs at an A/E of some 2.65...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Betfred at 5.05pm on Thursday, although the latter are non-BOG until raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th December 2019

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Wednesday's pick was...

2.05 Ludlow : Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 2/1 (Chased winner, led briefly 5th, lost 2nd before 4 out, soon weakened and last home, 33 lengths off the pace!)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly was a runner-up over course and distance when last seen 17 days ago. She was partnered by today's jockey, David Probert, for the first time that day and was only beaten by a neck. She was, however, a little more than two lengths clear of Seraphim back in fourth place, who herself has since reappeared here last Saturday as a winner.

After making a mess of the original post last night, I'm going to keep the stats pretty simple today with a look at he trainer's record at this venue in recent years, as...

...Ron Harris' runners are 19 from 149 (12.75% SR) for 132.04pts (+88.6% ROI) backed blindly in Class 4-6 handicaps here since the start of 2016. These are good numbers for non-top level yard, but I should point out that the profit and ROI are both skewed by a couple of 16/1 winners and a 33/1 success that paid out at 101/1 on the Betfair SP.

I rarely back horses at double digit odds and I certainly don't advocate backing 33/1 shots at Wolverhampton too often, so let's focus on those of the original 149 runners who were sent off shorter than 10/1, shall we?

Yes, Chris, let's do that, I almost hear you shout and you'd be right to, because those runners are a more realistic 14 from 59 (23.7% SR) for 44.4pts (+75.3% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 8/39 (20.5%) for 13.79pts (+35.4%) at Class 6
  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 30.88pts (+128.7%) with jockey David Probert
  • 6/15 (40%) for 39.76pts (+265.1%) during December to February
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.71pts (+104.5%) with female runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 13.98pts (+87.4%) with David Probert at Class 6
  • 4/19 (21.05%) for 3.35pts (+17.65%) from 3 yr olds
  • and 4/16 (25%) for 7.06pts (+44.1%) this year alone...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Elzaam's Dream @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by the first to show, Hills at 4.45pm on Wednesday. They were still best priced of all at 6.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2019

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

2.55 Catterick : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Led until slow 5th, soon ridden, led 8th, headed before 3 out, one pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2,05 Ludlow:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 2, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m on soft ground worth £16,458 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we're with the Skeltons today and their 6 yr old gelding who was won 7 of his last 10 outings and is 9 from 20 in his entire career, including 3 from 5 over fences and...

  • 8 from 16 with Harry in the saddle
  • 8 from 10 in fields of 3-8 runners
  • 7 from 16 over trips shorter than 2m1f
  • and 7 from 13 at 11-35 days since last run.

He has won on soft ground and also over course and distance and in fact won on soft over C&D last time out, when comfortably clear by nine lengths! And referring back to the above numbers, he is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 3.62pts (+60.4% ROI) when Harry rides him in fields of 3-8 runners over trips shorter than 2m1f at 11-35 dslr.

Both Harry and trainer Dan have good records here at Ludlow, but (a) that's fairly common knowledge and (b) it's actually highlighted on your race card via the green C1 and C5 icons, so I won't go there today.

Instead I'm going to focus on the fact that since 2014, Dan's former C&D winners sent off within 45 days of an LTO win anywhere are 19 from 41 (46.3% SR) for 11.23pts (+27.4% ROI) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which, they are...

  • 19/38 (50%) for 14.23pts (+37.5%) with Harry in the saddle
  • 18/34 (52.9%) for 17.08pts (+50.2%) who won over C&D LTO
  • 16/28 (57.1%) for 10.75pts (+38.4%) since the start of 2017
  • 16/26 (61.5%) for 21.01pts (+80.8%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 11/25 (44%) for 10.67pts (+42.7%) in handicaps
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 7.9pts (+56.4%) over fences
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 2.46pts (+22.4%) stepping up a class
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 7.61pts (+108.7%) on soft ground...

...whilst when Harry has ridden the 5-7 yr old LTO C&D winners from above since the start of 2017, they are 13/16 (81.25% SR) for 17.53pts (+109.6% ROI) and these include 8 from 10 in handicaps, 8 from 8 over fences, 4 from 5 stepping up a class, 4 from 4 in handicap chases and 2 from 2 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 5.25pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2019

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Monday's pick was...

12.30 Ffos Las : Out The Glen @ 10/3 WON at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway and in touch 3rd, went 2nd 4 out, led going best before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on well to win by the best part of 2 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2,55 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on good to soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep it nice and simple today with an 11 yr old gelding who still seems full of life, having won last time out with a bit to spare despite a mistake at the last over at fairly nearby Sedgefield on soft ground three weeks ago.

That win took his record over fences to 4 from 11, which is decent at this level and includes of relevance today...

  • 4/10 (40%) going left handed & 4/8 (50%) under jockey Danny Cook
  • 3/8 (37.5%) at Class 4 & 3/8 (37.5%) on Good to Soft/Soft ground
  • 3/6 (50%) in November/December & 3/5 (60%) at odds below 4/1
  • 4/4 (75%) within 3 weeks of his last run & 2/5 (40%) at trips shorter than 17f
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) in December...

...whilst his trainer Sue Smith is 22 from 50 (44%) with chasers here at Catterick over the last 6 years with a £10 level stake on all 50 yielding a profit of £685.30 or 137.1% of stakes invested. This highly impressive record includes...

  • 13/30 (43.3%) for 39.7pts (+132.2%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 29.61pts (+141%) at Class 4
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 6.57pts (+164.4%) with LTO winners...

...all of which is enough to support...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.05pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Out The Glen @ 10/3

...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.

Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..

1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
  • 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las

2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...

  • males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
  • and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)

...and finally for today...

3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
  • 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
  • 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy

...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

7.20 Wolverhampton : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1 (Chased leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on final furlong, beaten by 2 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Out The Glen @ 10/3

...in an 11-runner (was 12!), Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 2m4½f on heavy ground worth £2,794 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 6 yr old gelding got off the mark last time out on handicap debut just over 6 weeks ago and seemed to have plenty in hand despite a stamina test coming off a 162-day lay off and I'm not convinced a 4lb rise in weight would be the reason for a failure to follow up today if he comes here in the same frame of mind and his cause is aided by a drop in class.

Aside from that win LTO, I was also interested in him as his name cropped up quite a few times in my list of daily micro-system qualifiers, but in the interests of brevity, we'll just explore 3 angles today..

1. Trainer Debra Hamer is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 46.62pts (+186.5% ROI) on heavy ground since the start of 2016, including...

  • 7/23 (30.4%) for 48.62pts (+211.4%) with male runners
  • 6/27 (27.3%) for 25.33pts (+93.8%) in handicaps
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 9.28pts (+103.1%) here at Ffos Las
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 16.65pts (+185%) at Class 5
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 17.65pts (+220.6%) with Class 5 male handicappers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.28pts (+161.1%) with male handicappers at Ffos Las
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 12.45pts (+622.5%) with males in Class 5 handicaps here at Ffos Las

2. Since the start of 2015, Debra's LTO winners of handicap hurdle races are 12 from 20 (60% SR) for 65.22pts (+326.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle contests, from which...

  • males are 12/19 (63.2%) for 66.22pts (+348.5%)
  • Class 5 runners are 5/8 (62.5%) for 18.17pts (+227.1%)
  • and Class 5 males are 5/7 (71.4%) for 19.17pts (+273.8%)

...and finally for today...

3. Since 2014 in NH handicaps, Debra Hamer's runners with just one earlier run in the previous 90 days are 15 from 72 (20.8% SR) for 47.72pts (+66.3% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 15/68 (22.1%) for 51.72pts (+76.1%) from males
  • 13/42 (31%) for 61.28pts (+145.9%) with 5-8 yr olds
  • 11/42 (26.2%) for 49.9pts (+118.8%) at 11-45 days since last run
  • 11/20 (55%) for 33.42pts (+167.4%) at odds of 6/4 to 11/2
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 28.36pts (+76.7%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 23.8pts (+66.1%) over hurdles
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 32.8pts (+193%) at Ffos Las
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 12.16pts (+135.1%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 19.58pts (+195.8%) in December
  • 3/13 (23.1%) for 10.72pts (+82.5%) with those dropping down a class
  • 2/5 (40%) for 9.45pts (+189%) on heavy ground
  • 2/4 (50%) for 12.44pts (+311%) with today's jockey, Tom Bellamy

...whilst 5-8 yr old male Class 5 handicap hurdlers sent off shorter then 5/1 within 45 days of their last run are 6/7 (85.7% SR) for 16.64pts (+237.7% ROI) including 3 from 3 for 7.29pts (+243%) from LTO winners...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Out The Glen @ 10/3 as offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 4.40pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!