Tag Archive for: Stat of the day

SotD Update, 30th December to 4th January

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It was, if I'm honest, another annoying/frustrating week with just the one winner and December going out with a whimper, as did the year as a whole. The bright spot of the week was a horse picked at 4/1 BOG (which I thought was too good to pass up) getting home at 7/1, which at least sets January off in the right direction.

I'm not going to say too much about December or 2019 as a whole, because (a) I'll do 2019 in the yearly review and (b) I told you last week about how I felt about December's performance and nobody needs me moaning twice in a week.

January has started OK, I'm still scratching about for form, but I'm confident that it'll come and that's pretty much all I've got to say today other than slightly belatedly wishing you all a very Happy New Year that will hopefully see us all healthy and wealthy!

Chris

Selections & Results : 30/12/19 to 04/01/20

30/12 : Longhousesignora @ 4/1 9th at 15/2
31/12 : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4
-----------------------------------------------------------
01/01 : Redford Road @ 3/1 5th at 2/1
02/01 : Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2
03/01 : Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/1
04/01 : Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2

30/12/19 to 04/01/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: +2.00pts

December 2019 :
3 winners from 22 = 13.64% SR
P/L: -9.84pts
ROI = -44.73%

2019 totals :
66 winners from 290 = 22.76% SR
P/L: +35.46pts
ROI = +12.23%

January 2020 :
1 winner from 4 = 25.00% SR
P/L: +4.00pts
ROI = +100.00%

Overall:
657 winners from 2470 = 26.60% S.R
P/L: +535.87pts
ROI: +21.70%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

The fuller story of 2019 will be posted this week!

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 4th January 2020

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Friday's pick was...

6.15 Southwell : Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/1 (Keen led after 1f, made rest, pushed along 2f out, ran on to win by a length and three quarters)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

11.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Standard Polytrack worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Ed Walker is 4 from 21 (19.05% SR) for 3.21pts (+15.3% ROI) over the last five weeks, from which he has achieved...

  • 3/12 (25%) for 9.36pts (+78%) in handicaps
  • 3/6 (50%) for 6.28pts (+104.7%) at odds of 7/4 to 5/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 6.28pts (+104.7%) with Luke Morris in the saddle
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.44pts (+214.7%) wih Luke Morris riding a handicapper at 7/4 to 5/1.

Impressive enough figures, of course, but not really enough of a sample size to hang your hat on. Looking further back in time, it's not too surprising that Ed's doing well, as over the last three years, his handicappers sent off at 7/4 to 7/1 are 105/477 (22% SR) for 84.8pts (+17.8% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 95/392 (24.2%) for 118.1pts (+30.1%) at 6-45 dslr
  • 47/187 (25.1%) for 42.2pts (+22.6%) on the A/W
  • 39/164 (23.8%) for 33.6pts (+20.5%) at Class 5
  • 37/155 (23.9%) for 27.1pts (+17.5%) at 1m2f to 1m5f
  • 34/143 (23.8%) for 49.4pts (+34.6%) with females
  • 31/126 (24.6%) for 38.8pts (+30.8%) on Polytrack
  • and 12/32 (37.5%) for 26.3pts (+82.3%) with Luke Morris in the saddle...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.15am on Saturday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 11.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd January 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Chelmsford : Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 7/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway 2f out, switched right over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck and a nose)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4,  A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Standard Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...Class 4, Standard, 4yo+, Win: £5208

Why?...

This 6 yr old USA-bred gelding was a winner LTO fifteen days ago when landing another 6f, C4, A/W hcp at Wolverhampton, causing him to be rated 3lbs higher today. But as that win came off the back of a 4-month break, he can be expected to come on for the run and the switch back to Southwell's fibresand track is another positive.

To date, he is 5/25 (20% SR) for 83.5pts (+334%) in A/W handicaps, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 5/20 (25%) for 88.5pts (+442.5%) without headgear
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) on Standard going
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 89.5pts (+471.7%) over 6 furlongs
  • 4/16 (25%) for 73.2pts (+457.5%) going left handed
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 12.7pts (+90.7%) after a short 7-15 day break
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.41pts (+23.4%) here at Southwell
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 2.41pts (+48.2%) over course and distance...

...whilst he is 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 77.2pts (+643.4% ROI) going left handed over 6f on Standard with no head gear and this includes 2 from 5 (40%) over C&D, 2 from 5 (40%) within 15 dslr and 2 from 2 (100%) at Southwell within 15 dslr.

I mentioned at the top that he was USA-bred and much (possibly too much) has already been said (including by myself) about the success rate of USA-bred runners at this track. So much so that any value from just following them has now been pretty much eroded/eradicated, as those pesky bookies cotton on!

However (there's always an however!), it is worth knowing that there are still some niche angles that are profitable including this one of relevance today... 5-7 yr old, USA-bred males sent off at 12/1 or shorter over 6f to 1m in Class 4-6 A/W hcps at Southwell.

Trust me, that's more complicated in print than it is in practice and following such runners over the last three years (no reliance on old data) would have found you 20 winners from 82 (24.4% SR) and 70.8pts (+86.3% ROI) of profit and with this horse and race specifically in mind...

  • those sent off at 5/1 and shorter have a 27.5% strike rate (11 from 40)
  • those racing over this 6f course and distance have won 34.6% (9/26)
  • 6 yr olds have a 28% SR via 7 wins from 25
  • those 6f runners sent off at 5/1 max are 6/14 (42.9% SR)
  • whilst at Class 4 it's 4 from 19 for a 21% win ratio...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Katheefa @ 4/1 BOG as was available from best priced Unibet at 8.10am on Friday (plenty of 7/2 BOG elsewhere!). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2020

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New Year's Day's pick was...

12.15 Cheltenham : Redford Road @ 3/1 & BFSP 5th at 2/1 & 3.18 (Led until not fluent 3 out, soon led again, headed off last bend and one pace after)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP

...in a 9-runner, Class 6 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Standard Polytrack worth £2,846 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old Mare is seeking a hat-trick today after wins here at Chelmsford eight weeks ago and then at Wolverhampton three weeks back.

Jockey Hollie Doyle was on board last time and retains the ride today, hoping to maintain her own good form that has seen her ride 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last fortnight and she'll also be hoping to land another winner for trainer Tony Carroll for whom she was 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 7.25pts (+42.6% ROI) in 2019, including of relevance today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.25pts (+86.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 15.25pts (+169.4%) at sub-6/1 odds
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 7.91pts (+65.9%) on the A/W
  • 3/5 (60%) for 8.4pts (+168%) on female runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.4pts (+235.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.92pts (+48.6%) at Class 6

...whilst over the last two years Tony's sub-12/1 A/W handicappers racing over 1m3f to 1m6f are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 43.3pts (+98.4% ROI), from which...

  • those running on Poly are 6/24 (25%) for 24.5pts (+102.2%)
  • Class 6 runners are 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+98%)
  • Class 6 Poly runners are 3/12 (25%) for 18.12pts (+151%)
  • and LTO winners are 3/10 930%) for 6.2pts (+62%)

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Spreadex at 8.30am on Thursday (was 7/2 at 9.10am!), but do take BOG where possible. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st January 2020

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New Year's Eve's pick was...

3.20 Lingfield : Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never nearer)

New Year's Day's pick runs in the...

12.15 Cheltenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Redford Road @ 3/1 and Betfair SP

...in the 6-runner, Listed, Ballymore Novices Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £14,238 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was a Grade 2 winner here at Cheltenham on his last start 18 days ago and although he now takes a drop in trip, he has won at 2m4f over hurdles in the past. In fact he's never been out of the first two home in five starts, winning three times and never beaten by more than a length, including...

  • 3 from 3 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a second from 3 over hurdles (all Novice events)
  • 2 from 2 under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
  • a win and a second from 2 on Soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Cheltenham

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' hurdlers who won last time out are 31 from 99 (31.3% SR) for 17.1pts (+17.3% ROI) when sent off at odds of Evens to 13/2 over the past four years, including of relevance today...

  • 31/97 (32%) for 19.1pts (+19.7%) with males
  • 25/67 (37.3%) for 30.2pts (+45.1%) with 5/6 yr olds
  • 11/19 (57.9%) for 22.4pts (+117.7%) over trips of 2m3½f to 2m4½f
  • 9/30 (30%) for 1.5pts (+5%) on soft ground
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 2.4pts (+12.4%) here at HQ
  • 5/10 (50%) for 8.26pts (+82.6%) in January
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 10.6pts (+265%) from those dropping in trip by 4-5 furlongs

...whilst from the above...5-6 yr old males racing over 2m3½f to 2m4½f are 9/15 (60% SR) for 21.53pts (+143.5% ROI) including 4/7 on soft, 2/2 in Jan, 2/2 dropping 4-5f and 1/1 at Chelts...

...giving us...0.5pts at Betfair SP and a 0.5pt win bet on Redford Road @ 3/1 as was available from Paddy Power & Betfair at 6.40pm on New Year's Eve. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Cheltenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2019

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

12.25 Haydock : Longhousesignora @ 4/1 9th at 15/2 (Prominent until 2nd, chased leaders, lost place before 4th, closed after 6th, ridden next, weakened after 8th)

New Year's Eve's pick runs in the...

3.20 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back course and distance wins on this track in the last month, both at this grade under today's jockey and beating six of today's ten rivals in the process.

Jockey Hector Crouch is in decent touch right now (generally a useful pointer with these lower grade horses who tend to bet each other on a cyclical basis) having clocked up 5 winners from 25 (20% SR) for 3.11pts (+12.4% ROI) over the last three weeks of racing, from which he is...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.11pts (+134.3%) at 8/1 or shorter
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.11pts (+212.3%) at Class 6
  • 4/16 (25%) for 10.16pts (+63.5%) at Lingfield
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 12.37pts (+112.5%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 19.37pts (+484.25%) at 8/1 or shorter in Lingfield Class 6 handicaps.

Trainer John E Long doesn't have the biggest string of horses at his disposal, but the numbers say he's having a fair old time of it these last two years. He might have only sent 61 runners out in the last 24 months, but 13 winners (21.3% SR) and 180.9pts (+296.5% ROI) profit suggest he might be one to keep an eye on, especially under conditions like today, as those 61 runners are...

  • 13/52 (25%) for 189.9pts (+365.2%) in races worth less than £4600 to the winner
  • 13/51 (25.5%) for 190.9pts (+374.3%) in handicaps
  • 13/47 (27.7%) for 194.9pts (+414.7%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 12/47 (25.5%) for 188pts (+400%) over 6 to 10 furlongs
  • 12/36 (33.3%) for 164pts (+455.7%) within 45 days of their last run
  • 11/40 (27.5%) for 119pts (+297.5%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 147.7pts (+351.7%) within 60 miles of base
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 136pts (+388.5%) on the A/W (all on Poly)
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 99.7pts (+311.5%) at Class 6
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 144.3pts (+655.9%) from September to January
  • 6/15 (40%) for 60.5pts (+403.1%) at 6 furlongs
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13.3pts (+110.7%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 9pts (+82.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 15pts (+186.9%) with Hector Crouch in the saddle

Obviously you can combine the above details into a composite angle, but with each added filter you do dilute the sample size.

If you took the first 7 of those 14 angles above, then 4/5 yr olds having travelled less than 60 miles from home to run in 8-13 runner handicaps over 6-1o furlongs worth less than £4600 within 45 days of their last run are 8 from 14 (57.1% SR) for 92.8pts (+663% ROI), including 6 from 9 at Class 6, 5 from 9 on A/W (all Poly), 5 from 6 from September to December and 4 from 7 over 6f and so on...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Knockout Blow @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 12.30am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

3.35 Newbury : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, led 11th, pushed along and headed 3 out, chased winner, one pace and well held)

Monday's pick runs in the...

12.25 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Longhousesignora @ 4/1

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle for 3yo+ over 3m½f on soft ground worth £6,498 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare won a Class 2 chase by 15 lengths last time out, at Hereford over 3m1½f on soft ground, so this should be well within her capabilities reverting back to hurldes in a lower grade and sporting the blinkers she successful wore for the first time for that win. She'll be seeking to add to trainer Venetia Williams' good run of form, which has seen the yard land 15 winners from 45 (33.33% SR) and 19.62pts (+43.6% ROI) over the last 21 racing days.

Mind you, this run of form comes as no surprise to me, as one of my saved angles tells me to back all of her Class 2 to 4 handicappers during November/December, because the last six of those pairs of months have produced 89 winners from 420 (21.2% SR) for a profit of some 164.7pts (+39.2% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • 5-8 yr olds are 74/310 (23.9%) for 187.5pts (+60.5%)
  • those racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f are 74/308 (24%) for 201.4pts (+65.4%)
  • those racing on soft or "worse" ground are 70/294 (23.8%) for 121.3pts (+41.2%)
  • those racing at Class 4 are 38/177 (29.9%) for 77.4pts (+60.9%)
  • since the start of November 2018, they are 28/115 (24.3%) for 84.8pts (+73.7%)
  • hurdlers have won 22 of 108 (20.4%) for 30.2pts (+28%)
  • LTO Winners are 19/65 (29.2%) for 30.6pts (+47.1%)
  • whilst those sent here to Haydock are 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.5pts (+98%)

...all of which then leads us to a secondary saved micro-system of mine, where from the above 420 runners, we back 5-8 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 3m4½f on soft or worse ground. This gives us over 84% of the original profit from just 39% of the bets as 49 winners from 164 (29.9% SR) have generated 138.6pts at an ROI of 84.5% and that's the basis for the bet today.

If you wanted to filter down as before then you'd get...

  • 22/55 (40%) for 62.1pts (+112.8%) at Class 4
  • 18/50 (36%) for 64pts (+128%) in 2018/19
  • 11/43 (25.6%) for 41pts (+95.3%) over hurdles
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 4.4pts (+12.5%) from LTO winners
  • and 5/12 (41.7%) for 25.8pts (+215.2%) here at Haydock (our racecard icons are already alerting you to the yard's overall success at this track)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Longhousesignora @ 4/1 as was offered by both BetVictor & SkyBet at 10.10pm on Sunday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 12.25 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 23rd to 28th December 2019

/in /by

A short and frustrating week, folks. Once again we were far happier with our picks than the actual results we achieved.

I picked Roll Again on Boxing Day and he was travelling really well until coming down, whilst yesterday I went with Tidal Flow who did absolutely nothing wrong, but was simply second best to an impressive winner on the day.

I was otherwise engaged in the North East on Boxing Day, so Matt stepped in with Classic Design on Friday, who made a mess of the start, went right, but still managed to be leading inside the final furlong. He'd possibly done too much to get to the front and was subsequently headed deep into that final furlong. Don't, however, be fooled by his eventual 6th place finish, he really wasn't that far off.

All of which means that it's highly unlikely that we'll post a profit for the month, unless I can end with a pair of 4/1 winners! It's not inconceivable, but we should be realistic about these things. The very worst case scenario on the other hand is two more defeats, a loss of almost 10pts on the month and a final result of plus 35.5pts for the year.

As this is the last roundup of 2019, I'd like to thank you all for your continued support and encouragement in what has been a very frustrating and frankly disappointing year for me. A 35.5pts return might be considered decent from other "tipsters", but it's someway short of my own privately-set personal target (Matt/GGZ don't set targets for me, I "work" free from such pressure : that's the Geegeez way.) and I'll expand a little more on that next weekend.

Hoping for a better next two days, a better 2020 and that you all have a fantastic New Year.

Chris

Selections & Results : 23/12/19 to 28/12/19

23/12 : No Racing
24/12 : No Racing
25/12 : No Racing
26/12 : Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1
27/12 : Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2
28/12 : Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2

23/12/19 to 28/12/19 :
0 winning bet from 3 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -3.00pts

December 2019 :
3 winners from 20 = 15.00% SR
P/L: -7.84pts
ROI = -39.20%

2019 to date :
66 winners from 288 = 22.92% SR
P/L: +37.46pts
ROI = +13.00%

Overall:
656 winners from 2464 = 26.62% S.R
P/L: +533.87pts
ROI: +21.67%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2019

/in /by

Friday's pick was...

5.10 Wolverhampton : Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Went right start, soon tracked leader, led narrowly over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on soft ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is 4 from 9 so far and got off the mark (at just the second time of asking) over fences last time out when winning by a mere 21 lengths eighteen days ago. That was over 2m4f on heavy ground at Uttoxeter and whilst this is 3f further for his handicap debut, the ground will ride slightly easier today, plus he has stayed 3m over hurdles on soft ground, whilst Richard Johnson retains the ride today.

Our race card icons (C5) suggest that both the aforementioned jockey and the trainer, Philip Hobbs have decent records on this track, so I'll take that as read and whilst keeping today's explanation fairly simple, I'll explore two other angles briefly for you.

Firstly, people of a certain age might remember "...it's Friday, it's five to five, it's Crackerjack...". Well along those lines: "...it's Saturday, it's a handicap and it's Hobbs & Johnson!"

Basically, this trainer/jockey combo are 46 from 288 (16% SR) for 16.4pts (+5.7% ROI) backed blindly in handicaps on Saturdays over the last six years. A good strike rate that's blindly profitable is always a decent starting point for a way in and of interest from those 288 runners, we have...

  • 44/242 (18.2%) for 27.1pts (+11.2%) at odds of Evens to 10/1
  • 30/170 (17.7%) for 32.3pts (+19%) over fences
  • 24/105 (22.9%) for 58.4pts (+55.6%) from November to January
  • and 15/68 (22.1%) for 12.7pts (+18.6%) at Class 3...

...whilst chasers sent off at Evens to 10/1 during November to January are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 66.2pts (+124.9% ROI), including 5/14 935.7%) for 19.6pts (+139.8%) at Class 3.

Secondly, as our pick is making a handicap bow, it's worth noting that Philip Hobbs is having a good year with such runners, as his handicap debutants are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 14.56pts (+72.8% ROI) in 2019 and these include...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.6pts (+61.5%) from LTO winners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in fields of 10-13 runners
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 16.5pts (+235.5%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle...

...whilst 6 yr old LTO winners in fields of 10-13 runners are 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 6.3pts (+210% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 4.50pm on Friday, although I'm on with Hills (non-BOG until raceday) at 4/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!