Tag Archive for: horse racing tips

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2020

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Friday's pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 6/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £12,291 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has 4 wins from 14 on the A/W so far, including...

  • 4/12 at 9.5-10 furlongs
  • 4/10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/11 on Polytrack
  • 3/8 at Class 2
  • 1/2 here at Chelmsford
  • 1/2 over course and distance

He is trained by William Haggas, about whom there are quite a few relevant angles at play today. If I can get this to work (others here at Geegeez are far better than I at putting graphics up), then here are just three that will help us today...

1. For 82 winners from 229 runners (35.8% SR) and 50.7pts profit at an ROI of 22.2%, including 23/49 (46.9%) for 44.1pts (+89.9%) at Class 1/2...

2. Whilst he is 26 from 91 (28.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+12.2% ROI) under the following conditions, including 21/59 (35.6%) for 31.3pts (+53.1%) on the All-Weather...

3. And for 15 winners from 28 (53.6% SR) and 35.7pts profit at an ROI of 127.4%, we have...

...all of which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2020

/by

Thursday's pick was...

4.50 Southwell : Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Led, headed over 2f out, no extra)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare broke a losing run when successful here at this track four weeks ago under today's jockey Barry McHugh who is 5 from 25 (20% SR) for 101.4pts (+405.6% ROI) in the last 30 days, including...

  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 103.4pts (+449.4%) in races worth £2.5-4k
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 107.4pts (+565.1%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 4/20 (20%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%) in handicaps
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 21.3pts (+151.9%) at odds of 2/1 to 10/1
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 108.9pts (+777.9%) on tapeta
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.8pts (+127.2%) at Class 6
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 23.8pts (+297.6%) on 7-9 yr olds
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 92.1pts (+1023.6%) on female runners

...and at £2.5-4k + 9-11 runners + hcps + 2/1 to 10/1 + Tapeta + Class 6 + 7-9 yr olds = 3/4 (75% SR) for 27.8pts (+695.1%)

That's over the past month, of course, but if we extend our date range, we see that Barry is 7 from 29 (24.1% SR) for 71pts (+244.8% ROI) here at Wolverhampton over the last six months, including...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 75.9pts (+344.9%) for prizes of less than £4,000
  • 5/20 (25%) for 67.1pts (+335.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 72.32pts (+723.2%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 11.05pts (+78.9%) at Evens to 8/1
  • 3/12 (25%) for 23.8pts (+198.1%) at Class 6
  • 3/12 (25%) for 10.95pts (+91.25%) on females
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 53.9pts (+1078%) over today's course and distance...

...and he now rides a mare, who herself is 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 46.3pts (+272.2% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton and these include of relevance/note today...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 47.3pts (+295.5%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 55.3pts (+691.3%) off a mark (OR) of 55-62
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 33.2pts (+302.1%) carrying 9st 4lbs to 9st 7lbs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 34.22pts (+342.2%) at Class 6
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 29.8pts (+270.7%) at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs
  • 3/10 (30%) for 32.98pts (+329.8%) at 16-36 days since last run
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 35pts (+437.3%) during January to March
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 23.1pts (+384.6%) in cheekpieces

...whilst at £0-4k + OR 55-62 + 9-04 to 9-07 + C6 + less than 30dslr, she is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 27.8pts (+693.9% ROI) on this track, including 2/3 at 8.5-9.5f, 2/2 in Jan/Feb, 1/2 in cheekpieces and also includes her last run/win...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.25am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I've a doctor's appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2020

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

3.55 Doncaster : My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Raced wide, held up, not fluent 1st, headway 12th, ridden and weakened after 3 out)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Sorry for the delay this morning. We'd a storm and subsequent power cut overnight here. I'd already gone through the cards last night before bed, so it was just a case of checking prices this morning, so rest assured, I've put the normal amount of work into finding today's pick, but as we're against the clock, I'll keep the write-up brief...

...about a 4 yr old filly whose last two runs were a runner-up finish here on the A/W over 2m 0.5f ahead of a win LTO over hurdles in a Class 4, 2m contest at Ludlow. This might suggest she's a better hurdler than on the A/W, where she runs at Class 6, but we'll see!

Her yard is going well enough of late, Gay Kelleway's A/W runners are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 41.4pts (+197.3% ROI) over the past month, including...

  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 11.43pts (+103.9%) here at Southwell
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 19.94pts (+221.5%) at Class 6
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 8.74pts (+218.4%) at Class 6 here at Southwell...

...which is fairly unsurprising to me, as her record here at this venue since 2016 stands at 16 winners from 91 (17.6% SR) for 44.05pts (+48.4% ROI) backed blindly and here's how she got those 16 winners based on today's conditions...

  • 14 came from 70 (20%) in December-March for 57.55pts (+82.2%)
  • 13 came from 70 (18.6%) over 6f to 1m4f for 52pts (+74.3%)
  • 13 came from 67 (19.4%) at Class 5/6 for 22.9pts (+33.9%)
  • 12 came from 62 (19.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 for 25pts (+40.4%)
  • 6 came from 14 (42.9%) sent off at Evens to 10/3 for 8.02pts (+57.3%)
  • 5 came from 18 (27.8%) 8-runner contests for 39.57pts (+219.9%)
  • and 3 came from 11 (27.3%) races over this 1m4f C&D for 25.05pts (+227.7%)

...whilst at Class 5/6 over 6f to 1m4f during December to March for prizes of less than £4k, those 91 original Gay Kelleway Southwell runners are 9 from 37 (24.3% SR) for 35.05pts (+94.7% ROI) including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.23pts (+140.8%) over this 1m4f C&D...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 9.30am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I've a doctor's appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2020

/by

Tuesday's pick was...

8.00 Southwell : Social City @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Mid-division, outpaced over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £18,768 to the winner...

Why?...

This 10 yr old mare is a lightly-raced veteran if that's not an oxymoron, having only raced 12 times (inc 4 wins) so far, including a 3 from 6 record over fences where she's hardly over-exposed. She won a similar (albeit open age) Class 2 handicap chase here over course and distance on her last outing just over two months when once again partnered by today's jockey, Brian Hughes.

She has 4 wins from 12 to date and here's how, under today's conditions, she got those wins...

  • all four came from 9 races at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 3 from 7 in handicaps
  • 3 from 4 at 3m-3m1f
  • 2 from 5 on soft
  • 2 from 5 under Brian Hughes
  • 2 from 2 at 3m
  • 1 from 1 at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 here at Doncaster (over C&D LTO at C2, of course)

Her jockey Brian Hughes is 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 18.1pts (+60.2% ROI) at this venue over jumps since the start of last year.

And she's trainer Nicky Richards' only runner of the day today and such solo travellers are 35 from 119 (29.4% SR) for 49.1pts (+41.3% ROI) since 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 34/110 (30.9%) for 49.8pts (+45.3%) for prizes up to £21k
  • 20/49 (40.8%) for 54.4pts (+111.1%) during Dec-March
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 30.05pts (+71.6%) on Soft/heavy
  • 14/50 928%) for 21.4pts (+42.8%) over fences
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 25pts (+166.6%) over 3 miles
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 4.4pts (+21.1%) from LTO winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 19.5pts (+130%) at Class 2
  • 4/10 (40%) for 11.87pts (+118.7%) from 10 yr olds
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 19.5pts (+324.5%) at Doncaster
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.36pts (+245.3%) in races for 10yo+ horses

...whilst in chases worth £4-21k on soft/heavy during Dec-March, they are 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 16.87pts (+105.4% ROI), including 2/3 at 3m, 2/3 from LTO winners, 1/1 from 10 yr olds and 1/1 at C2...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Marathon at 8.00am Wednesday, whilst Unibet were half a point bigger, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th February 2020

/by

Monday's pick was...

4.30 Carlisle : Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Social City @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding is 313 in handicaps so far, having won over this trip prior to a narrow (0.75 length) defeat over 2m at Lingfield 27 days ago at this grade, despite being forced to run quite wide. The winner has since stepped up two classes and won again, so hopefully that form pans out for us here.

Hayley Turner is in the saddle today and has been quietly impressive in A/W handicaps since coming back and since the end of July 2018, she has 22 winners from 156 (14.1% SR) for 71.2pts (+45.6% ROI) and she has been in excellent form more recently winning 6 of 17 (35.3%) for 51.4pts (+302.1%) over the last 4 weeks.

Trainer Tony Carroll's runners are 12 from 57 (21.1% SR) for 31.5pts (+55.3% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 11/1 in A/W handicaps of 1m6f and beyond since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 33.3pts (+123.3%) during December to April
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 18.8pts (+64.9%) at Class 6
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.5%) at Class 6 during December to April
  • and 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 5.63pts (+80.4%) here at Southwell...

...where more specifically, he is 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 17.8pts (+74% ROI) at odds of Evens to 9/2 since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 18.2pts (+95.8%) after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 22.6pts (+188.6%) in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 13.8pts (+114.9%) with 3-4 yr olds
  • 8/9 (88.9%) for 25.6pts (+284.8%) in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 7/10 (70%) for 15.79pts (+157.9%) with 3-4 yr olds after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 6/8 (75%) for 15.2pts (+190.1%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners
  • and 6 from 6 (100%) for 17.2pts (+286.7%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest ...

All the above 7 facts also apply to Tony's runner, Luscifer, who is currently priced at 11/8 BOG in the 5.30 race here today...

...but the decision is...a 1pt win bet on Social City @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

1.30 Haydock : Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m1f on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old mare is currently 4 from 20 (20% SR) which on face value is definitely reasonable and worth a second look. When you do look closer, you'll find that in the context of this race, her numbers are excellent when compared to her 7 rivals here , who are a combined 4 from 127 (3.15% SR)!

She has also made the frame in 7 of 16 defeats, meaning she has placed in 55% of all contests including the four wins and her 4/20 record includes of relevance today...

  • 4 wins and 6 places from 17 on soft/heavy
  • 4 and 6 from 16 with a 5-7lb claimer on board
  • 4 and 5 from 15 after 10-50 days rest
  • 4 and 6 from 14 in 5-9 runner contests
  • 4 and 5 from 13 from Jan-April
  • 4 and 3 from 8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 and 6 from 15 over 2m-2m1f
  • 3 and 4 from 10 with Abbie McCain in the saddle
  • 3 and 2 from 8 on soft ground
  • 2 and 5 from 12 at Class 4

...and 5-7lb claimer + 5-9 runners + soft/heavy + Jan-April + 4/1 max odds + 11-50 dslr = 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 11.55pts (+288.8% ROI), including...

  • 3/3 for Abbie McCain
  • 3/3 on soft
  • 3/3 at 2m-2m1f
  • and 2/2 at Class 4

The potential fly in the ointment is the weight, of course. As she's so consistent and clearly the best horse in the race, she gets no help from the handicapper today. Jockey Abbie's 5lb claim is the only relief available, but there's a precedent here, as since the start of 2015, Donald McCain's handicap hurdlers that are top weight have won 8 of 30 (26.7% SR) for 13.7pts (+45.7% ROI) profit when sent off at Evens to 10/1 with a claimer jockey on board, including the following at play today...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 19.7pts (+82.1%) in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 21.7pts (+98.6%) at 1-30 dslr
  • 7/20 (35%) for 20.4pts (+102%) with 7-9 yr olds
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 2.4pts (+67.3%) at Class 4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.6pts (+104.9%) on soft/heavy
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.4pts (+70.1%) over 2m-2m2f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103.1%) on soft
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 3.13pts (+62.6%) for Abbie McCain...

...whilst 4-9 runners + 1-30dslr + 6-9 yr old + Class 4 = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 28.4pts (+315.7% ROI), including...

  • 4/4 at 2m-2m2f
  • 4/4 on soft/heavy
  • 3/3 on soft...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

1.30 Haydock : Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m1f on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old mare is currently 4 from 20 (20% SR) which on face value is definitely reasonable and worth a second look. When you do look closer, you'll find that in the context of this race, her numbers are excellent when compared to her 7 rivals here , who are a combined 4 from 127 (3.15% SR)!

She has also made the frame in 7 of 16 defeats, meaning she has placed in 55% of all contests including the four wins and her 4/20 record includes of relevance today...

  • 4 wins and 6 places from 17 on soft/heavy
  • 4 and 6 from 16 with a 5-7lb claimer on board
  • 4 and 5 from 15 after 10-50 days rest
  • 4 and 6 from 14 in 5-9 runner contests
  • 4 and 5 from 13 from Jan-April
  • 4 and 3 from 8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 and 6 from 15 over 2m-2m1f
  • 3 and 4 from 10 with Abbie McCain in the saddle
  • 3 and 2 from 8 on soft ground
  • 2 and 5 from 12 at Class 4

...and 5-7lb claimer + 5-9 runners + soft/heavy + Jan-April + 4/1 max odds + 11-50 dslr = 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 11.55pts (+288.8% ROI), including...

  • 3/3 for Abbie McCain
  • 3/3 on soft
  • 3/3 at 2m-2m1f
  • and 2/2 at Class 4

The potential fly in the ointment is the weight, of course. As she's so consistent and clearly the best horse in the race, she gets no help from the handicapper today. Jockey Abbie's 5lb claim is the only relief available, but there's a precedent here, as since the start of 2015, Donald McCain's handicap hurdlers that are top weight have won 8 of 30 (26.7% SR) for 13.7pts (+45.7% ROI) profit when sent off at Evens to 10/1 with a claimer jockey on board, including the following at play today...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 19.7pts (+82.1%) in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 21.7pts (+98.6%) at 1-30 dslr
  • 7/20 (35%) for 20.4pts (+102%) with 7-9 yr olds
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 2.4pts (+67.3%) at Class 4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.6pts (+104.9%) on soft/heavy
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.4pts (+70.1%) over 2m-2m2f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103.1%) on soft
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 3.13pts (+62.6%) for Abbie McCain...

...whilst 4-9 runners + 1-30dslr + 6-9 yr old + Class 4 = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 28.4pts (+315.7% ROI), including...

  • 4/4 at 2m-2m2f
  • 4/4 on soft/heavy
  • 3/3 on soft...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2020

/by

Friday's pick was...

3.50 Fakenham : Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Disputed lead until led 6th, headed before 10th, lost place 3 out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Heavy ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding finished 23111 over hurdles before switching to the larger obstacles where he is currently 1 from 2, after winning a heavy ground contest at Ayr almost four weeks ago on his last outing. Overall, to date, he is...

  • 4/5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 4/4 at 20-70 dslr
  • 2/3 in fields of fewer than 8 runners
  • 1/1 in a hcp
  • 1/1 on heavy
  • and 1/1 under today's jockey Sean Quinlan, who himself is...

...6 from 16 (37.5% SR) for 71.1pts (+444.6% ROI) when riding for trainer Nicky Richards in the last 12 months. two big priced winners are clearly affecting the P/L and the ROI here, but the Strike rate is excellent and those 16 races include the following of relevance here today...

  • 6/12 (50%) for 75.1pts (+625.8%) with 7-10 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 74.6pts (+677.9%) over fences
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 76.6pts (+850.8%) at 26-60 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+608.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/10 (40%) for 37.3pts (+373.2%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 36.8pts (+1227.3%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 29.4pts (+980%) on heavy ground...

...whilst Quinlan + Richards + 7-10yo chasers at 26-60 dslr = 5/6 (83.3% SR) for 79.6pts (+1326.2% ROI).

Trainer Nicky Richards' horses don't mind a bit of mud either (just as well!), as his handicap chasers are 19 from 54 (35.2% SR) for 62.4pts (+115.6% ROI) backed blindly on heavy ground since the start of 2013, including of note today...

  • 19/48 (39.6%) for 68.4pts (+142.6%) in faces with fewer than 10 runners
  • 17/41 (41.5%) for 66.8pts (+162.9%) within 2 months of their last run
  • 17/39 (43.6%) for 65.6pts (+168.1%) over 2m to 3m
  • 16/37 (43.2%) for 34.3pts (+92.6%) in races worth £4-10.5k
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 25.4pts (+87.7%) at Class 3
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 18.1pts (+95%) stepped up in trip by 1-4 furlongs
  • 5/12 941.7%) for 9.35pts (+77.9%) with LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.7pts (+195.7%) in the North West
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 30.4pts (+1520%) for our aforementioned jockey, Sean Quinlan...

...and Class 3 + 2m-3m + £4-10.5k + 1-60dslr + 1-9 runners = 11/17 (64.7%) for 32.3pts (+189.8%) including...

  • 4 from 6 stepped up by 1-4f
  • 3 from 4 LTO winners
  • 1 from 1 LTO winners stepped up 1-4f
  • 1 from 1 in the North West...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.40am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th February 2020

/by

Thursday's pick was...

3.00 Leicester : Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1 (Not always fluent, in rear on outside, some headway 9th, hit 12th, soon well beaten)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £6,433 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, one of the benefits of posting the picks just after 8.00am means we've avoided a non-runner today, after my first choice was scheduled to run at Sandown, hence me going with one slightly shorter in price than I'd normally put up for you (hopefully, there'll be a bit of an early-morning drift). That doesn't, of course, mean that I don't expect to have a winner!

So, why this 6 yr old mare? Well, she's lightly (just 5 starts to date) raced, but has 3 wins and a runner-up finish (odds-on defeat by just a neck at Carlisle LTO 11 days ago) to her name already and aside from her own suitability to the task ahead, I've a few other strands of data that suggest a good run is due here, so I'll try to keep it as brief as I can, starting with...

..the horse, whose 17112 form line includes...

  • 1711 going left handed
  • 112 at Class 4
  • 112 on Soft or softer
  • 112 under jockey Gavin Sheehan (more on him in a moment)
  • and 1 from 1 here at Fakenham

After her narrow defeat at odds-on LTO, she'll look to bounce back quickly and the omens are good as since the start of 2017 in UK NH handicaps, horses turned back out within 30 days of an odds-on defeat of 2 lengths or shorter are 19 from 59 (32.2% SR) for 25.8pts (+43.8% ROI) profit, including the following at play today...

  • 16/30 (53.3%) for 31.8pts (+106%) at odds of evens to 5/1
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 23pts (+104.5%) at Class 4
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 13.1pts (+38.6%) over hurdles
  • and 7/13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+167.1%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

...with Class 4 runners sent off at evens to 5/1 winning 11 of 16 (68.75% SR) for 20.95pts (+168.4% ROI) profit.

...and now to the jockey. Gavin Sheehan is in good touch right now, having won 5 of 19 (26.3% SR) for 13.5pts (+71.1% ROI) already this month, including of relevance today...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 22.5pts (+225%) at evens to 8/1
  • 3/10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%) in novice races
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.2pts (+124.3%) in handicaps
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.9pts (+218%) on soft ground

and finally our trainer today is Miss Venetia Williams, about whom I have many profitable angles, but we'll just quickly look at two for today, starting with an angle I loosely label "Winter 3m+". Basically some trainers fare better than others with stayers in the main NH season. In Venetia's case, backing her runners during October to April at evens to 8/1 is very successful.

Since the start of 2017, this approach has generated 32 winners from 120 (26.7% SR) for 73.6pts (+61.4% ROI) profit, broken down under today's conditions as follows...

  • 16/49 (32.7%) for 47.9pts (+97.8%) on soft ground
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.7pts (+50.4%) at Class 4
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 20.4pts (+119.9%) in February
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.5%) 11-15 days after their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 15.3pts (+95.8%) with female runners
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 12pts (+133.3%) in novice contests

The other angle I want to touch on before eventually (I didn't want you all to think that second choice meant I'd put less effort in!) signing off on this one is Miss Williams' record in Class 4 handicap hurdles, because at odds of evens to 9/1 since the start of 2017 she has definitely been worth following with 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) producing profits of 24.3pts at a decent ROI of 42.6% including...

  • 10/44 (22.7%) for 10.14pts (+23.1%) on soft or softer ground
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.4pts (+96.7%) from her 6 yr olds
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.04pts (+168%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

...all of which has steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Friday (with plenty of 11/4 appearing from 8.30 onwards!), but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Fakenham

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th February 2020

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

2.20 Southwell : Liamba @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Led, headed over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7f on Soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner...

Why?...

This 11 yr old mare is a consistent/hardy sort and that might be all that's needed here. She recorded six consecutive top 3 finishes prior to struggling under a 3lb claimer last time out. Regular jockey Paddy Brennan is back in the saddle today and with a 2lb easing of her mark, I'd expect more from her today.

She's Fergal O'Brien's only runner of the day and he's 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 40.9pts (+163.6% ROI) in handicap chases here at Leicester since the start of 2015, including of relevance today...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 43.9pts (+199.5%) in races worth £4-10k
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 51.9pts (+370.5%) with runners returning from 3 to 8 weeks rest
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 43.2pts (+332.2%) over trips of 2m6.5f to 2m7.5f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 33.1pts (+254.3%) with Paddy Brennan in the saddle
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.9pts (+182.1%) on Soft ground

...whilst those competing for £4-10k after 3-8 weeks rest are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 52.9pts (+406.7% ROI), from which...

  • Paddy Brennan is 4/7 (57.1%) for 39.1pts (+557.8%)
  • those racing over 2m6.5f to 2m7.5f are 4/6 (66.6%) for 50.2pts (+836.6%)
  • and on soft ground : 2/5 (40%) for 11.9pts (+238.5%)

Meanwhile, more generally, Fergal O'Brien's handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 11/1 during February to April inclusive are 16 from 80 (20% SR) for 35.8pts (+44.7% ROI) since Feb 1st 2016, including...

  • 11/53 (20.8%) for 34.4pts (+64.8%) after 16-60 days off track
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 30pts (+65.2%) under Paddy Brennan
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 27.7pts (+67.6%) over 2m6.5f to 3m2f
  • and 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.5pts (+67.2%) from Fergal's only runner at the track that day...

...and there has been 8 horses that, like today's pick, tick all four of the above boxes and they have yielded 3 winners (37.5% SR) and 15.7pts (+196.4% ROI) profit including one from one here at Leicester...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Thursday with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!