Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2020
New Year's Day's pick was...
12.15 Cheltenham : Redford Road @ 3/1 & BFSP 5th at 2/1 & 3.18 (Led until not fluent 3 out, soon led again, headed off last bend and one pace after)
Thursday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP
...in a 9-runner, Class 6 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Standard Polytrack worth £2,846 to the winner...
Why?...
This 6 yr old Mare is seeking a hat-trick today after wins here at Chelmsford eight weeks ago and then at Wolverhampton three weeks back.
Jockey Hollie Doyle was on board last time and retains the ride today, hoping to maintain her own good form that has seen her ride 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last fortnight and she'll also be hoping to land another winner for trainer Tony Carroll for whom she was 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 7.25pts (+42.6% ROI) in 2019, including of relevance today...
- 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.25pts (+86.5%) in handicaps
- 5/9 (55.6%) for 15.25pts (+169.4%) at sub-6/1 odds
- 4/12 (33.3%) for 7.91pts (+65.9%) on the A/W
- 3/5 (60%) for 8.4pts (+168%) on female runners
- 3/4 (75%) for 9.4pts (+235.1%) with LTO winners
- and 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.92pts (+48.6%) at Class 6
...whilst over the last two years Tony's sub-12/1 A/W handicappers racing over 1m3f to 1m6f are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 43.3pts (+98.4% ROI), from which...
- those running on Poly are 6/24 (25%) for 24.5pts (+102.2%)
- Class 6 runners are 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+98%)
- Class 6 Poly runners are 3/12 (25%) for 18.12pts (+151%)
- and LTO winners are 3/10 930%) for 6.2pts (+62%)
...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Spreadex at 8.30am on Thursday (was 7/2 at 9.10am!), but do take BOG where possible. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Chelmsford
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Looks a great selection today Chris with a lot of negatives for the competition. Homesick Boy seems the only danger so I have had a stake saver on that. Carroll has a tremendous record with LTO winners who are Fav so all looks good.
Best of luck.
Mark
Thanks, Mark, just not quite there, sadly.
Can you confirm your going back to morning selections Chris. ?
Hi Ian,
I can’t confirm anything right now, sorry.
I won’t commit to any change without at least giving it a try before making a decision.
There are a multitude of factors to consider, so I’m going to give it a go where possible with a view to making a more informed choice.
Chris