Tag Archive for: Chelmsford racecourse

Stat of the Day, 6th March 2020

Thursday's pick was...

4.45 Wincanton : Le Boizelo @ 4/1 BOG WON at 3/1 (Soon towards rear, behind 5th, good headway on outside chasing leaders 13th, chance 3 out, went 2nd before next where left well clear, eventually winning by 12 lengths

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on polytrack worth £3,170 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty much like yesterday, in that the racing on offer today isn't much to write home (or anywhere!) about, so I'm keeping it simple again with an in-form runner who should be suited by conditions.

Trainer Olly Murphy's runners have 3 wins and 3 places from just 7 outings on the A/W this year (last 7 weeks to be more precise) and some of that is down to this 8 yr old gelding, who himself has four wins from his last eight runs and comes here seeking a hat-trick after back to back wins over this grade, course and distance last month under today's jockey.

Those wins took his own A/W record to an impressive 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 22.1pts (+64.9% ROI) and this includes of relevance today...

  • 7/33 (21.2%) for 23.1pts (+69.9%) over 6f
  • 7/28 (25%) for 28.1pts (+100.3%) within 50 days of his last run
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 38.1pts (+211.5%) during January to March
  • 6/31 (19.4%) for 22.3pts (+71.9%) in handicaps
  • 6/30 (20%) for 14.6pts (+48.8%) on Standard going
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 16.6pts (+59.4%) going left handed
  • 6/25 (24%) for 22pts (+88%) in blinkers
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 20.3pts (+96.7%) in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 6/20 (30%) for 21.3pts (+106.5%) on Polytrack
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 23.2pts (+166%) for trainer Olly Murphy
  • 3/6 950%) for 10.3pts (+171.5%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 9pts (+450%) with Grace McEntee in the saddle (his last two runs)

And with him being drawn in stall 6 with a liking for racing prominently, the unique Geegeez pace/draw heat map also suggests we should get a good run for our money...

...all of which led me to...a 1pt win bet on Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2020

Friday's pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 6/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £12,291 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has 4 wins from 14 on the A/W so far, including...

  • 4/12 at 9.5-10 furlongs
  • 4/10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/11 on Polytrack
  • 3/8 at Class 2
  • 1/2 here at Chelmsford
  • 1/2 over course and distance

He is trained by William Haggas, about whom there are quite a few relevant angles at play today. If I can get this to work (others here at Geegeez are far better than I at putting graphics up), then here are just three that will help us today...

1. For 82 winners from 229 runners (35.8% SR) and 50.7pts profit at an ROI of 22.2%, including 23/49 (46.9%) for 44.1pts (+89.9%) at Class 1/2...

2. Whilst he is 26 from 91 (28.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+12.2% ROI) under the following conditions, including 21/59 (35.6%) for 31.3pts (+53.1%) on the All-Weather...

3. And for 15 winners from 28 (53.6% SR) and 35.7pts profit at an ROI of 127.4%, we have...

...all of which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2020

Friday's pick was...

6.45 Newcastle : She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in 3rd, pushed along halfway, ridden and one pace over 1f out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £5,434 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has finished 121 in his last three starts, culminating in a course and distance win here 16 days ago under today's jockey Ben Curtis despite losing his whip in the closing stages, taking the horse's record on the A/W to include of relevance today...

  • 2/5 in handicaps
  • 2/4 on Standard going
  • 2/4 going left handed
  • 2/3 here at Chelmsford
  • 2/3 under Ben Curtis
  • 2/3 in a visor
  • 1/1 over a mile
  • 1/1 over C&D

Meanwhile, over the last seven months, jockey Ben is 5 from 10 (50% SR) for 40.98pts (+409.8% ROI) when riding for trainer George Scott, including...

  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 38pts (+534.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.7pts (+167.4%) at evens to 5/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 33.67pts (+561.2%) on the A/W
  • 2/4 (50%) for 6.17pts (+154.3%) at Class 4
  • 2/2 (100%) for 34.5pts (+1725%) here at Chelmsford
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 33.28pts (+1116%) with horses wearing a visor
  • 2/2 (100%) for 34.5pts (+1725%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.41pts (+270.3%) over 1m

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by SkyBet & Unibet at 8.10am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd January 2020

New Year's Day's pick was...

12.15 Cheltenham : Redford Road @ 3/1 & BFSP 5th at 2/1 & 3.18 (Led until not fluent 3 out, soon led again, headed off last bend and one pace after)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP

...in a 9-runner, Class 6 A/W handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Standard Polytrack worth £2,846 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old Mare is seeking a hat-trick today after wins here at Chelmsford eight weeks ago and then at Wolverhampton three weeks back.

Jockey Hollie Doyle was on board last time and retains the ride today, hoping to maintain her own good form that has seen her ride 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last fortnight and she'll also be hoping to land another winner for trainer Tony Carroll for whom she was 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 7.25pts (+42.6% ROI) in 2019, including of relevance today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 11.25pts (+86.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 15.25pts (+169.4%) at sub-6/1 odds
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 7.91pts (+65.9%) on the A/W
  • 3/5 (60%) for 8.4pts (+168%) on female runners
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.4pts (+235.1%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.92pts (+48.6%) at Class 6

...whilst over the last two years Tony's sub-12/1 A/W handicappers racing over 1m3f to 1m6f are 10 from 44 (22.7% SR) for 43.3pts (+98.4% ROI), from which...

  • those running on Poly are 6/24 (25%) for 24.5pts (+102.2%)
  • Class 6 runners are 5/24 (20.8%) for 23.5pts (+98%)
  • Class 6 Poly runners are 3/12 (25%) for 18.12pts (+151%)
  • and LTO winners are 3/10 930%) for 6.2pts (+62%)

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Falcon Cliffs @ 10/3 or BFSP as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Spreadex at 8.30am on Thursday (was 7/2 at 9.10am!), but do take BOG where possible. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Keen tracked leader, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, it's a simple "horses for courses" approach today, as we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding running in what look to be favoured conditions. His last four races have ended 1213, culminating in a very decent effort at Wolverhampton five days ago. This was despite setting out from the widest draw on a lesser preferred surface over a slightly shorter than optimal trip after being off track 113 days.

Now back on the Polytrack turned out quickly, things look more well suited for him today, as I'll hopefully highlight now...

I'll start with his overall All-Weather record, which is very good. He has made the frame in 10 of 19 starts (52.6%), going on to win 6 times (31.6% SR) with those wins generating 55.66pts profit at a very healthy ROI of 292.9% and with today's conditions in mind, his A/W record includes...

  • 6 wins, 4 places from 17 in fields of 9-15 runners : a 35.3% SR producing 57.66pts @ 339.2% ROI
  • 6 + 4 / 16 at Class 6 = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 6 + 4 / 16 in cheekpieces = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 5 + 3 / 16 going left handed = 31.25% SR and 44.22pts @ 276.4%
  • 4 + 3 /13 in handicaps = 30.8% SR and 29.8pts @ 229.2%
  • 5 + 2 / 9 on Polytrack = 55.6% SR and 41.86pts  @ 465.1%
  • 5 + 2 / 8 over 1m2f/1m3f = 62.5% SR and 42.85pts @ 535.6%
  • 4 +1 / 6 here at Chelmsford = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over 1m2f = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over this course and distance = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • and 3 + 1 /5 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter = 60% SR and 16.17pts @ 323.4%

...and when wearing cheekpieces, going left handed on Polytrack over 1m2f in a Class 6 field of 11-15 runners within 10 days of his last run, he is 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 32.42pts (+810.6% ROI) profit, all over today's course and distance and all within the last eight months...

...backing up...a 1pt win bet on Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Hills at 5.40pm on Wednesday, whilst SkyBet were next best at a half point shorter for those of you still able to get BOG from them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 7.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!