SotD Update, 10th to 15th February 2020

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Well, what can I say? My current form is as bad (if not worse) than the weather, but I need my fortunes to improve sooner than the Met office are saying the weather will!

0 from 6 is poor, but when they finish 264655, it's dreadful. The highlight of the was Monday and it then went downhill from there, I'm afraid. Although if Monday's runner gets home, we perversely make a profit on the week!

Normally, at this stage of the month, I'm working out the bare minimum needed to protect the profits made and it looks like I'm up against it this month. Five, possibly six winners are needed, but it's not impossible. That said, I really do need a change in fortune/weather pretty quickly.

Thankfully, the knives haven't come out yet and the only pressure I'm feeling is self-imposed : I'm not getting grief just yet from you readers nor from above. The only other thing I would add is a reminder that I personally back every selection with my own money too, so I certainly feel the hit here.

Chris

Selections & Results : 10/02/20 to 15/02/20

10/02 : Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 15/2
11/02 : Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 5/2
12/02 : Liamba @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 6/1
13/02 : Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1
14/02 : Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1
15/02 : Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 6/1

10/02/20 to 15/02/20 :
0 winning bet from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

February 2020 :
1 winner from 13 = 7.69% SR
P/L: -9.25pts
ROI = -71.15%

Overall:
662 winners from 2503 = 26.45% S.R
P/L: +524.37pts
ROI: +20.95%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

2020 Unibet Champion Hurdle Preview

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It's mid-February and high time for the very first ante post preview, of the Champion Hurdle, ahead of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. The Festival is confirmed alive and kicking as runners head to the start for the first of the week's open championship races and, while this year's renewal looks lacking in star quality, it may be bulging with quantity... and that makes for a cracking betting race.

2020 Champion Hurdle Betting

From an ante post wagering perspective, significant further spice is added by the "will they / won't they" nature of a number of runners towards the pointy end of the market. Any/all of Honeysuckle, Envoi Allen, Benie Des Dieux, and Cilaos Emery could rock up here and go off a single figure price; but only the first two named are actually entered at this stage. We'll know more after the supplementary stage on 4th March, but so will everyone else so now is the time to take a view.

With 2017/18 champ Buveur D'Air out injured, Willie talking horse Klassical Dream out missing in action, and 2019 victor Espoir D'Allen sorely missed, the path is clear for a hitherto largely unheralded player to add their name to the illustrious roll of honour. Here's where the fun starts...

 

The above is a betting snapshot as at 8am on 14th February, with the starting prices for the race sure to be quite different. Before looking at the form, let's think about the shape of the market.

First up, if the four uncertain runners all turn up, Epatante is more likely to be nearer 5/1 than 5/2. Pentland Hills might be - arguably should be - nearer 10/1 than 5/1.

What is more likely to happen, I think - and don't quote me on this, is that Benie and Honey will swerve each other, with one going to the Mares' Hurdle (Honeysuckle?) and one to either the Champion (or Stayers') Hurdle (BdD?).

Benie Des Dieux has raced exclusively over two and a half to three miles and her trainer, Willie Mullins, has a number of other options for the Tuesday showpiece. In my view she's unlikely to run here, but would be the chief antagonist to Paisley Park if going to the longer Grade 1, a race in which she's actually entered.

Novice Envoi Allen has looked a Champion Hurdler in the making, his plan all season being the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, a kingmaker for the following year's Champion, for which he is not far north of even money. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he was re-routed to an ostensibly hollow renewal of the hurdling Blue Riband, but his non-runner no bet (NRNB) price is about right, so save nearer the time if required.

And then there's Cilaos Emery. I'm in for a few quid on this lad for the Champion Chase, so a first fence fall in his dress rehearsal at the Dublin Racing Festival - and subsequent plan revision from the Closutton schemers to potentially head this way - has been a disappointing dispatch to digest. We'll come back to his form chance shortly.

2020 Champion Hurdle Preview

All of the above means that my inclination is to clear out the noise and focus primarily on those believed likely to run at this stage. Primus inter punting pares currently is Epatante. The Nicky Henderson-trained / JP McManus-owned six-year-old mare has done little wrong albeit in lesser company. Since winning a French AQPS G1 bumper in November 2017 - her switch to Seven Barrows ensuing - she has run five times, winning four of them.

That quartet comprises a brace of novice hurdles where her closest pursuers are now rated 127 and 117; a Listed handicap hurdle where the next two home were stable mates at Chez Nicky, rated in the mid-130's; and the Grade 1 (in name at least) Christmas Hurdle, where she was five lengths too good for Silver Streak, himself third in last year's Champion Hurdle.

But last year's Champion Hurdle completely fell apart due to fallers and a pace collapse. Silver Streak, a 25/1 chance this year, was 80/1 last year. Moreover, he was beaten 15 lengths last year and subsequently duffed up royally at Aintree though over an extra half mile or so.

The sole blemish on Epatante's UK CV is a sizeable one. It came in last year's Mares' Novices' Hurdle where she was 15/8 favourite in a big field of interesting though not necessarily exciting aspirants. Eight of them finished in front of her at the line for all that she was only beaten around ten lengths.

Whether it was the track, or the volume of rivals, or the occasion, it is hard to know. What I do know is that she'll be racing at the same track (old/new course notwithstanding), with quite possibly a similar number of rivals, and an even bigger occasion. That's a big question to remain unanswered for a 5/2 (10/3 in a place) chance, even taking into account her seven pound mares' allowance.

If Epatante has questions to answer, what about Pentland Hills? Last season was fairytale stuff for his four billion owners in the Owners Group 031 club. A fairly exposed flat turfer for Chris Wall, rated 73 on the level, the journey from Newmarket to Lambourn clearly suited - as did, of course, the increase in racing distance and the presence of an octet of obstacles.

For where was this middling summer handicapper? After waltzing away from The Flying Sofa on his debut over timber as late as the end of February, he rocked up in the Triumph just 18 days later and bashed his 13 rivals up in style; though of course it should be remembered that rock solid favourite, Sir Erec, met a most untimely demise in the first half of the race.

However, Pentland was keen to show his Chelto success was no fluke and did just that in the Aintree equivalent where he took down another notable scalp in the form of Fakir D'Oudairies. A fearsome four-year-old was he last season, but this term has been less straightforward. Kicking off his campaign in the International Hurdle at Cheltenham in December, he was no better than fifth as a 5/2 chance in a bunch finish.

He has since run in the Haydock Champion Hurdle Trial, a Grade 2, where he was beaten a nose by Ballyandy, that one finishing second in the International and, therefore, having two verdicts over Pentland Hills this season yet still being offered at five times his price. To be clear, I don't like the form lines especially but the price disparity has to be wrong for all that the Hills has far more 'back class'.

A feature of Pentland Hills' races this term has been a propensity to over-race. His advocates will argue that in a bigger, and better, field they'll go quicker which will play to the Triumph victor's strengths. They may be right about that, but I still don't see him winning. At least I don't see me betting him at anything like his current price.

And, of course, everybody knows five-year-olds don't win the Champion Hurdle. Except Katchit in 2008. And, erm, Espoir D'Allen last year 😉

Benie Des Dieux has much better options than this. She'll surely go for either the Mares' Hurdle over an extra half mile, or the Stayers' Hurdle over a full mile more. A flat out speed test is something against which she's completely unproven. Back her on the day if you like, but she's a red herring in this book from where I'm sitting.

The Henry de Bromhead-trained Honeysuckle has similar destination uncertainties. She is at least entered in the race, where Benie is not currently; but her target has reputedly been the Mares' Hurdle all along. The form book relates that, although she won the G1 Irish Champion Hurdle last time, it was by the smallest margin - half a length - in her seven race unbeaten career to date. Closer inspection reveals that the next narrowest margin of victory was on the only other occasion she contested a race over two miles, a Naas novice 15 months ago.

She wants two and a half miles at least, maybe three, and she did very well to prevail at the shorter range last time. I'd be surprised if she was invited to go short next month.

The eight-year-old Darver Star was knocking around the places in novice hurdles before a handicap debut win off 106 in April last year. A year later and he's now rated 152 having won four in a row prior to running a four length third to Envoi Allen in the G1 Royal Bond in December and a half length second to Honeysuckle in the aforementioned Irish Champion Hurdle. He's tough, he's hardy, he's progressive for his age (lightly raced, too) and he could outrun odds of 20/1.

The heart-breaker in the herd, for this scribe at least, is Cilaos Emery. I  have him to win a nice four figure amount in the Champion Chase, but his jumping and his inexperience - intrinsically linked, no doubt - which led to a first fence fumble in the Dublin Chase have placed his participation in the Wednesday feature under a cloud of doubt.

Although he needs to be supplemented, he is a legit contender for the hurdles crown. Rated 165 over fences, that figure is higher than any in the current entries. Of course, he hasn't run over the smaller barriers since late 2017 when he was rated only 153; but even that level gives him a bit of a chance in this likely field. He's 8/1 NRNB and 12/1 all in run or not, and could easily end up being Mullins' first choice for a race where his expected contenders have evaporated as the season has worn on.

Of the Mullins horses actually entered, Sharjah is the most compelling. He has two ways of running, the better of them up to muster in this group. He evidenced that most recently when winning the Grade 1 Matheson (formerly Ryanair) Hurdle at New Year for the second year running. Last season, he also won the G1 Morgiana beating (an admittedly likely below peak) Faugheen, so he's capable of Grade 1 winning form.

Patrick Mullins is expected to keep the mount, and to ride a patient race. If he handles the ground - which will probably be on the soft side given the weather we've been having - he's a player.

So too is Envoi Allen if he is diverted to this gig. I don't think he will be and I don't think he should be, but clearly a horse unbeaten in seven Rules races and a point-to-point, including last season's Champion Bumper, cannot be completely dismissed. He's just not a betting proposition at this stage for all that he's a very exciting horse.

Then we step into the realm of the wannabe's - many of whom never will be, at this rarefied altitude at least - with the likes of Fusil Raffles, Thomas Darby, Coeur Sublime and Supasundae amongst others.

Fusil Raffles was a good four-year-old, beating Fakir D'Oudairies by two and a half lengths in a Punchestown Festival Grade 1 last May. A literal interpretation of that gives him the beating of second favourite, Pentland Hills; but since then, the Henderson inmate has had mixed fortunes, first scrambling home in a Grade 2 then pulling up as if something was amiss in the Christmas Hurdle. The news that he goes straight to Cheltenham offers no prior chance to redeem the reservation of that Kempton flunk.

Olly Murphy recently celebrated his maiden Grade 1 success, in the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase at Sandown. The winner there, Itchy Feet, finished a place behind stable companion Thomas Darby in last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle, the latter taking his chance in the Champion Hurdle now. Since last March, however, Thomas has charted an uncertain passage, looking far from fluent over fences and reverting to hurdles last time where he did well to beat a field of Grade 3 handicappers off top weight. That was two and a half miles on heavy ground, a different test - in distance terms if not ground - to what he'll encounter here; but current evidence suggests he's a better hurdler than chaser.

Coeur Sublime simply doesn't look good enough, having finished a respectful distance behind a number of more credible Champion Hurdle candidates; but Supasundae is not without hope. Jessica Harrington would be one of the less feted of the top table of Irish trainers, and her Cheltenham Festival record is impressive: most notably she recorded a treble in 2017 which included Sizing John in the Gold Cup, and Supasundae himself.

In the intervening three years, Supasundae, now ten, has finished 23212212227124. His problems in the win market are well couched in that form string; but every single one of those runs was in Grade 1 company. He was disappointing in the Stayers' Hurdle last term - the sore thumb '7' in the sequence - and I have a suspicion that a fast run two, rather than a steadily run three, is what he wants.

He won the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle last April, where he beat Buveur D'Air, who would be no bigger than 5/1 in this field all other things being equal. Of course, that was two and a half miles, but he is a legitimate Grade 1 animal. His last day fourth in the Irish Champion Hurdle, where he was beaten less than five lengths on his first run for nine months, will doubtless have delighted connections, and he must improve plenty from there to Cheltenham.

Ballyandy is also worth a name check. The form of his last three runs ties in closely with both Epatante and Pentland Hills so, if you think they are correctly priced, this guy has to represent a bit of value in the place markets at least. His Cheltenham Festival record is strong: he won the Champion Bumper in 2016, was fourth in Labaik's Supreme a year later, and was third in the Coral Cup last year.

2020 Champion Hurdle Tips

It's a fabulously fraught Festival market with no horse holding anything like outstanding claims. As such, it can pay to take a couple of chances at bigger prices. Cilaos Emery would be interesting if getting supplemented but at this stage he is overlooked. So too are the hokey cokey possibles Honeysuckle, Benie Des Dieux and Envoi Allen.

Epatante is a dreadful price even if the above named quartet all abstain; her Cheltenham blot and the general balance of her form mark her as vulnerable for all that she'd not be a shock winner. Pentland Hills actually impressed me in the Triumph, and again at Aintree, last year; but he doesn't look the same model this season, five-year-old hurdlers often struggling to recapture the fizz of their first forays.

Thereafter it's wide open. A 'going day' Sharjah would be a player, for sure, as would Supasundae; and Darver Star and Ballyandy are not without hope from the long grass either.

With Sharjah's Cheltenham record patchy (if probably excusable - heavy ground and a brought down, respectively), and Ballyandy inexorably tied to Pentland Hills in form terms - which for some will be a boon, granted - I'll take a punt on the other pair.

Darver Star will be having his first start outside Ireland, though that didn't stop his trainer winning last year's race with a similar type, and is an eight-year-old who has emerged from absolutely nowhere in the last year. He's not had a huge amount of racing, stays the trip and more, and has arguably achieved more in defeat the last twice than a number of his rivals have done in winning.

And Supasundae, if routing this way - we'll go NRNB just in case - has class and consistency in his corner. Yes he is ten years old; yes, he finishes second a lot; but he does it in Grade 1 company, including at the Cheltenham Festival where his record since switching to his current trainer is 127. That first run of the season earlier in the month must have pleased connections, and I'm happy to chance him each way non-runner no bet.

Champion Hurdle 2020 Suggestion

Back Supasundae each way NRNB at 16/1 Skybet

Consider any of Darver Star 20/1, Ballyandy 20/1, and/or Sharjah 12/1 all NRNB

 

New and Improved: Draw / Pace Display

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We're at the start of a busy period of development within Geegeez Gold just now, and an early part of this work is to bring a couple of rather clunky elements of the visuals into the 21st century.

Specifically, we've smoothed our draw and pace chart curves; and we've made the pace heat map a bit less 'blocky'.

There is also a new view on the Pace tab - and a very interesting one at that.

Gold users can now see which parts of the draw are favoured by the respective run styles, as well as which horses sit where against that draw / run style underlay. It's quite difficult to explain, so have a look at the short video below and see what you think.

Plenty more coming soon!

Matt

p.s. the user guide has been updated accordingly and you can download the latest version from your My Geegeez page.

Geegeez Notches Best Betting Website Four-Timer

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Oops, we did it again, as Britney Spears never quite sang. With the results just in from the 2020 Smart Betting Club Awards, I'm delighted to announce that geegeez.co.uk has won the Best Betting Website category... for the fourth year in a row.

Here's how the SBC Awards report broke the news

GOLD - GEEGEEZ RACING

For the 4th year running, racing website, GeeGeez.co.uk did the business by winning the coveted Gold ‘Best Betting Website’ Award with an impressive 33.47% of the vote – increasing their share by nearly 10% from last year.

Scooping more than a third of all votes is something we're immensely proud of, as is beating the likes of Oddschecker, ATR, Racing Post, Betting.Betfair, and so on.

We've never been able to compete with the massive budgets of those major media houses; but that has never stopped us punching above our weight. The ethos of geegeez.co.uk is simple: highest quality data-driven content presented in an easily consumable format.

In other words, we aim to deliver key punting messages in bite-sized snippets, whether that's through our Gold racecards and form tools, or in the insightful research-based editorial produced by the likes of Tony Keenan, Jon Shenton, Dave Renham, Chris Worrall and myself.

This is how the votes were distributed:

Of course, we'll never win an 'industry' award, because we're never nominated. We're not part of that club where members take it in turns to back slap each other. Nope, we rely on your votes - you know, the actual users of our site (ahem) - to express your feelings about the value you get. Thank you for validating the effort we put in to building the best product/site/service we can.

And we're not done yet.

Not by a long chalk.

Here are just a few of the things we have planned for 2020:

- Betfair Starting Price data in our reports and cards: so you can see profit and loss against exchange prices (with commission deducted)

- Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) and PRB2 metrics: so you can deploy this professional's barometer of performance

- Draw / Pace heat map underlayed within the pace map: so you can see how stall position and run style might impact today's field.

- Query Tool v2.0: a brand new, much more functional, system builder tool. Planned for the second half of 2020.

- Headgear and 'DSLR' (days since last run) reports

- 2nd time in a handicap and 2nd time for a new trainer (HC2 / TC2) reports

...and a bundle more besides.

As always, if you have any suggestions, please do let us know via the Contact form on site. That's how some of our best features - including the heat map one above - come to life.

*

On behalf of the entire team - developers, backroom staff, writers and myself - thank you so much for your ongoing support - it means the world to us to know that the hours we put in are appreciated by you, our highly valued readers and subscribers.

Matt

p.s. you can download a copy of the full report here.

p.p.s. I personally won a prize, too: the inaugural Best Betting Writer. That really is too kind. Indeed, I'm not even convinced I'm the best betting writer on geegeez.co.uk these days, something about which I'm delighted. Healthy competition at a high quality level is what I've always aspired to for readers of geegeez. It's a thrill to be a part of such a great editorial team.

Elsewhere in cyberspace, the likes of Kevin Blake and Lydia Hislop, as well as the excellent pair of Joseph Buchdahl and Paul Krishnamurty, are all writers well worth your time if you're as yet unfamiliar with them.

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.

1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.

2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for 69.5pts (+173.8%) within 100 miles drive of her base
  • and 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton

3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.95pts (+55%) at Class 4
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.5pts (+194.4%) during January & February

4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)

...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 3rd to 8th February 2020

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Last week was the proverbial Curate's egg : good in parts. Ilhabela Fact was a nice SP-beating winner and we'd a couple of other placers. The stats for the month will show that we're one winner shy of parity for both strike rate and profitability and we really needed another of the placers to get home.

As ever, it's a case of fine margins and whilst I'm getting at least 50% of the picks to make the frame, I'm not unduly worried about some losses.

A milestone awaits us this week, too. If all goes to plan, Wednesday's runner will be our 2500th! Not for a small feature that we weren't sure would work/take off!

Chris

Selections & Results : 03/02/20 to 08/02/20

03/02 : Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2
04/02 : Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4
05/02 : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1
06/02 :Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG4th at 2/1
07/02 : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4
08/02 : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3

03/02/20 to 08/02/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.25pts

February 2020 :
1 winner from 7 = 14.29% SR
P/L: -3.25pts
ROI = -46.43%

Overall:
662 winners from 2497 = 26.51% S.R
P/L: +530.37pts
ROI: +21.24%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

2.40 Musselburgh : Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Led, driven and headed turning in, ridden before 3 out, one pace and no impression when left 3rd next, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out over 5f at Kempton nine days ago and now drops in class for the switch to Tapeta.

His trainer Phil McEntee is 18 from 84 (21.4% SR) for 43.2pts (+51.4% ROI) since the start of 2016 and he also has a very good record here at Wolverhampton, especially in handicaps at the sharper end of the market.

In fact, since the start of 2015, Phil's handicappers sent off in the 6/4 to 13/2 price range here are 13 from 44 (29.6% SR) for 31.4pts (+71.3% ROI), including...

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 35.4pts (+88.4%) from males
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 41.4pts (+121.8%) during January to May
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 35pts (+120.6%) after 4-15 days rest
  • and 10/35 (28.6%) for 24.2pts (+69%) at Class 6...

...whilst Class 6 males racing in January to April after just 4-15 days rest are 9/15 (60% SR) for 36.1pts (+240.3% ROI), including Pearl Spectre in the 5.30 race this evening...

...but my pick is...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Hills, Unibet & Spreadex at 8.35am Monday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

SotD Update, 27th Jan to 1st Feb 2020

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Thankfully, two of the three January winners I was hoping for finally materialised to help the month finish in a similar manner to how it started. This meant that despite a desperate mid-month dip in form, we were still able to record a profit for January, albeit a fairly small one. A 20.8% strike rate is probably 1 winner shy of par (hence me wanting the three!), but I'll take it as a platform to build on.

Just the one February runner so far, but I'm hoping for another good month.

Chris

Selections & Results : 27/01/19 to 01/02/20

27/01 : Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 13/2
28/01 : Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8
29/01 : Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1
30/01 : Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/2
31/01 : Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/1
--------------------------------------------------------------
01/02 : Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1

20/01/19 to 25/01/20 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +3.75pts

January 2020 :
5 winners from 24 = 20.83% SR
P/L: +1.75pts
ROI = +7.29%

February 2020 :
0 winners from 1 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -1.00pts
ROI = -100.00%

Overall:
661 winners from 2491 = 26.54% S.R
P/L: +532.62pts
ROI: +21.38%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Clock Watcher: Some Breeze from Wind

/by

It's Wednesday and time for another edition of Clock Watcher, a weekly roundup of interesting performances from a sectional timing perspective. In focus this week is an impressive middle distance newcomer to the Nottinghamshire beach; a perfect example of upgrades in action; and an explanation of the concept of OMC. Plus, a new column in your Gold form denoting sectional upgrades. Woof!

We start with a couple of noteworthy efforts on a deeper-than-normal Southwell circuit last Thursday. While geegeez.co.uk eyes were on Forseti, one of our syndicate horses, who was recording a double at the track, clock watchers were treated to a brace of striking efforts for contrasting reasons.

One for the All 'Weather'

The first was in a three-runner Class 3 three-year-old handicap over a mile, where Forseti's stablemate at Mick Appleby's yard, Merryweather, was given a peach from the front by Ali Rawlinson. Where he'd been patient aboard Forseti half an hour earlier, riding our lad efficiently and coming through late, here he took ownership of the pace, dictating a pedestrian overture.

Thereafter, Rawlinson and his willing partner turned the screw, accelerating markedly in the final three furlongs. His Topspeed figure of 45 is moderate but an upgrade of a whopping 43 gives him a composite score of a more than useful 88. This is a fine illustration of how understanding how the race was run in a more objective, granular manner gives us a handle on what might have otherwise been considered a muddling affair.

The race time was unimpressive - 1.1 seconds slower than Forseti in the preceding contest - but the finishing effort of all three runners, most obviously the winner, was rapid. That final three furlongs was completed in 35.53 seconds, compared with 39.69 for Forseti's closing three-eighths.

On a perennially stamina-sapping strip at its most testing, direct comparisons may be unfair; nevertheless, Merryweather - who was completing a hat-trick for her owners, The Horse Watchers, the last two at Southwell - remains one to keep on side.

Wind Breezes By

The very next race was a cracker: three Southwell specialists - Blowing Dixie, Angel Lane and Azari - lined up, the first named sent off the strong 4/6 favourite (and about that price, if not shorter, in my book). As it transpired, Dixie had five-and-a-half lengths and more on his field... with the exception of fibresand firster, Calling The Wind.

A winner twice on the Chelmsford speedway for Sir Mark Prescott in 2018, the son of Authorized changed hands last summer for £32,000, heading to Richard Hughes's yard. He was entitled to need his debut spin for the barn at the very end of last year, but showed a ready alacrity for this marmite surface, breezing alongside Blowing Dixie before moving decisively ahead. Calling The Wind achieved a decent Topspeed of 64 to which is added a strong sectional upgrade of 31 for an impressive composite of 95. He will be very hard to beat over this course and distance in a similar pace setup: that is the fastest course and distance composite score in our database by a full five points.

A Claim to Fame?

Nothing much to note in the novice ranks last week, but there was a fascinating claimer run at Lingfield on Friday. The finish was contested by the 6/5 favourite, Lets Go Lucky, and 5/2 second market choice, Hong Kong Dragon. They finished in that order, the pair most of five lengths clear of the rest, and with the second looking a little unlucky in the run.

That was how the 'judges' saw it, too, with no fewer than eight claims made for the runner up, including his (now former) trainer, George Scott, and fellow handlers Tony Carroll and Mick Appleby - plus at least one twitter shrewdie. He was secured for the claiming tag of £5,000 by Gareth Maule, whose runners mostly race with Christian Williams.

What was interesting about this contest is that they went very quickly early before a war of attrition - the winner being the one who slowed down the least - in the final section.

The sectional percentage 'by furlong' chart shows how closely matched the two protagonists were:

The red line is winner Lets Go Lucky, green is Hong Kong Dragon, and black is par, an expression of how to optimally run a race at this course and distance. Their composites are similar, with the winner getting a marginally higher speed rating and the runner-up a fractionally higher upgrade number. Both performed above expectation for the grade and it is a mystery - to me at least - how the second took eight claims where the winner took none!

What does it mean: OMC

Who doesn't love a bit of sectional jargon? (rhetorical)

And, as if there aren't enough new concepts and terms to get ones head around, we invented (at least) one more!

Say hello to OMC.

OMC stands for Opening, Midrace, Closing and is simply a means of splitting a race into a beginning, middle and end in order to better understand what happened and roughly when.

You can see from the trios of colour blobs above a chart how races have been run, and from the same colour blobs in the result itself (when the 'show sectionals' button has been clicked) how individual runners have divided their energies. Thus, the two claiming pugilists were involved in a race that was fast early, even in the middle and very slow late.

The notion of fast and slow in this context is based on the percentage of the race time spent in each section, compared with those percentages for all races run over the same course and distance.

This is important because it means we are not interested in the actual times. Rather, we are interested in the ratio of time spent in each part of the race, or section. Hopefully that makes some sort of sense because there's more.

The notion of fast and slow is also not a specific percentage but rather a comparison of the par percentage against this race's/runner's sectional percentage. So, in the claiming race example above, the O(pening) section had a sectional percentage of 101.9%. That is to say that it was completed pro rata in 101.9% of the overall race time; but that was fully 6% quicker as a sectional percentage than par for this course and distance, thus our algorithm deems it as FAST. [Remember that horses race from a standing start in the stalls and, thus, they need to go from 0 mph to their cruising speed, so we'd normally expect opening sections to be below 100%, depending on how long that opening section is.]

What you actually need to know

That's somewhere between obtuse and downright baffling for many, no doubt, so here's what you actually need to know.

If the blobs are green, a horse, or race (and its rider, or leaders) went evenly, using their energies sensibly across the spectrum of the distance.

Where the early blob is blue (slow), expect one or both of the later blobs to be orange/red (fast).

And vice versa: where early pace is fast (orange/red), as in the claimer example, expect the late sectional blob to be blue or possibly greenish.

Horses that finish fast are useful allies in subsequent races that look to be muddling in pace terms. Horses that can run evenly out back off faster than optimum tempos may be interesting closers in such pace setups, especially on the straight track at Newcastle. (These comments are mainly, though not exclusively, in relation to all weather racing).

A New Number on Gold

You've seen various references to upgrade figures in the above: they are the traceable heartbeat of sectional timing. They quantify objectively - notwithstanding that different scales of objectivity will find different numbers, as with xG in football - the extent to which a performance should be marked up.

There is no marking down with upgrades: a horse either ran efficiently, in which case it gets a zero, or it ran inefficiently. The less efficiently it ran, the bigger the upgrade figure.

Naturally, there are all sorts of nuances - such as horses that need to be ridden inefficiently (speedball frontrunners), but which can still win by making their rivals act even less optimally - which time and experience will help us figure out.

No data element, or group of data, is the panacea to solving the puzzle; but each new element enhances our understanding of the actors and our ability to quantify the value propositions before us. Sectional data, and upgrades, are clearly no different.

Here's how they look in your racecard once switched on, UP column right hand side:

And in the Full Form, this time with the 'Show Sectionals' option checked:

They also appear on the right of the Full Result a couple of days after the race, once we've received the information from our provider, Total Performance Data.

 

To switch sectional upgrade figures on, go to the Race Card Options section on your My Geegeez page, and check the box in the Ratings sub-section.

 

That's all for this week. I appreciate there's a lot to take in - for those who wish to - but the key is not necessarily to understand the mechanics; instead, focus on the utility: what is this stuff saying about what happened, and how does that inform me going forwards?

Often the answer is very little or nothing; frequently it is 'only' an empirical confirmation of that to which the peepers already alerted us; but occasionally these numbers switch us on to an effort far more positive than at first sight. That's the real juice.

By the end of the year, we'll all be more comfortable around these ideas, so take your time and dip your toe in when the urge takes you. Don't force it, no good comes of that. Oh, and please do ask questions. Here in the comments is best, so that other people might see the answers.

Thanks for reading, and good luck.

Matt

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, effort entering final furlong, kept on one pace, beaten by a length and a half)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Antony Brittain seems to have his string ticking over nicely right now and has 4 winners from 13 (30.8% SR) all in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, including 2 from 6 (33.3%) here at Wolverhampton and he seeks to improve those stats with today's pick, who might well be 10 yrs old now, but is showing no signs of heading quietly towards retirement.

In fact, he has 2 wins and 3 places from his last seven starts, including a win in another Class 5 Tapeta handicap at Newcastle last time out, 6 days ago.

Jockey Harry Russell has been on board for both recent wins and he's in situ again today, as this horse seeks an 11th A/W handicap success, as he comes here with a record reading 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 61.4pts (+120.3% ROI) in such contests on Tapeta and including the following dozen profitable and relevant angles at play today...

  • 9/45 (20%) for 63.6pts (+141.2%) on Standard going
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 21.1pts (+81%) at odds of 5/2 to 8/1
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 9pts (+28.1%) since the start of 2018
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 54.7pts (+195.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 6/25 (24%) for 25.5pts (+102%) in a visor
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 44.7pts (+186.4%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 47.7pts (+207.4%) in Class 5 contests worth less than £3.5k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 48.7pts (+243.5%) over course and distance
  • 5/10 (50%) for 29.92pts (+299.2%) after less than 10 days rest
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.2pts (+134.8%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/8 (25%) for 36.1pts (+451.4%) after winning LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 10.6pts (+530%) under jockey Harry Russell...

...and over course and distance wearing at visor in a race worth less than £3.5k at odds of 5/2 to 8/1, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.6pts (+392% ROI) since the start of 2018...

...pointing me towards...a 1pt win bet on Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning, although Hills were offering half a point more (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!