Stat of the Day, 27th February 2020

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Wednesday's pick was...

4.40 Musselburgh : Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent 2nd, lost place after next, ridden 7th, closed on outside next, weakened before normal 3 out (actual 2 out)) : she showed very little desire to get involved.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £12,736 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding won another soft ground, Class 3, handicap chase when last seen 25 days ago at Taunton and although he's up 5lbs for that win, a change of jockey to an in-form 5lb claimer sorts that out.

He's now got 4 wins and 2 from 9 starts over fences, including under today's conditions...

  • 4 wins and a place from 7 going right handed
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 at Class 3
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 on soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Ludlow

The afore-mentioned jockey, Charlie Price, hasn't been overworked of late (mind you, we've lost plenty of racing recently), but has won 3 and placed in 4 others of his 10 rides in the past three weeks, which is decent enough and he now teams up with trainer Tim Vaughan, who himself has had some joy here in Shropshire in the past few years.

More specifically, Tim Vaughan's chasers at Ludlow (all male btw) are 9 from 30 (30% SR) for 48.7pts (+162.4% ROI) if backed blindly since the start of 2014, with the following of relevance today...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 49.7pts (+171.4%) in handicaps
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 55.7pts (+242.2%) in races worth £4k to £13k
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 44.4pts (+193.1%) in 5-9 runner contests
  • 8/20 (40%) for 36.8pts (+184%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.7pts (+297%) at 21-30 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 15.7pts (+142.4%) over this 3m C&D
  • 3/10 (30%) for 39.7pts (+397.2%) at class 3
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 2.13pts (+106.5%) with LTO winners...

...whilst those sent off at 10/1 or shorter in 5-9 runner handicaps worth £4k to £13k are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+279.3% ROI) and these include 5 from 6 within 25 dslr, 3 from 3 at this 3m C&D, 2 from 2 from LTO winners and 1 from 1 at Class 3...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.00am Thursday (and widely available by 9.00am) with some 5/1 BOG at Hills, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2020

/by

Tuesday's pick was...

4.45 Catterick : Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Mid-division, headway after 3 out, challenged towards stands side rail next, not clear run and switched inside between last 2, soon ridden, stayed on to lead towards finish) : nice to "nick" one and the other mentioned horse also won for a 35/1 double!

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £3,964 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare was a winner last time out five weeks ago, comes here seeking a hat-trick and is the only one of the 9 runners in this contest with any real discernible recent form, as only one other has a win in their last five outings.

She has won three times so far, including...

  • 2 in handicaps
  • 2 this year
  • 2 for jockey Conor O'Farrell
  • 2 for trainer Dianne Sayer
  • 1 at Class 4
  • and 1 on Soft ground

Her trainer Dianne Sayer tends to do well with in-form horses and since the start of 2018, her LTO winners are 11 from 36 (30.6% SR) for 12.7pts (+35.3% ROI) with the following derived angles at play today...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 12.46pts (+36.7%) in handicaps
  • 10/27 (37%) for 19.46pts (+72.1%) at 5-35 dslr
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 19.76pts (+82.3%) with runners aged 4-6 yrs old
  • 9/15 (60%) for 14.7pts (+98%) at odds of 5/4 to 15/4
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+52.7%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.94pts (+85.3%) when racing just 70-120 miles away from her base just South of Penrith
  • 6/10 (60%) for 15.05pts (+150.5%) on Soft ground
  • 5/10 (50%) for 19.8pts (+198%) with those stepping up in trip
  • 3/10 (30%) for 1.18pts (+11.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.47pts (+116.3%) in fields of 9-10 runners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 0.28pts (+4.74%) with jockey Conor O'Farrell

...whilst 4-6 yr old handicappers sent off at 5/4 to 15/4 after 5-35 days rest are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI), including 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) over hurdles...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Wednesday with plenty of 3/1 BOG around elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2020

/by

Monday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Reeves @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led early, tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 2nd place towards finish) : three runners-up on the bounce for us now!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?...

Similar to yesterday, in that I've little of substance to choose from at the right price, but the shortness of the fav here means we'll get a decent price about this 7 yr old gelding, who has finished 312 in his last three outings, having only gone down by two lengths over course and distance in a stronger/higher class race last time out 25 days ago after winning here again over C&D two starts ago.

He's by Sir Percy, whose offspring are 11 from 50 (22% SR) for 12.78pts (+25.6% ROI) over trips of 3m to 3m5f since the start of 2017, including of relevance here...

  • 10/40 (25%) for 19.27pts (+48.2%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/39 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+40.8%) over hurdles
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 15.53pts (+119.5%) during the first quarter of the year
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 2.74pts (+22.8%) on soft or heavy ground

He's also running out of a yard that knows how to train stayers, as trainer Sam England's record at 3m1½f to 3m3½f currently stands at 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.1% ROI) and these include of note today...

  • 10/28 (35.7%) for 63.8pts (+227.8%) from 6-10 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 66.8pts (+267.2%) ridden by Jonathan England
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 52.1pys (+236.6%) from December to April
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 67.7pts (+322.4%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.6pts (+156.5%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 54.1pts (+284.5%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 7/14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+159.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.1pts (+193.3%) over 3m1½f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 45.5pts (+350.2%) at Class 4
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.4pts (+191.3%) here at Catterick, all over today's course and distance...

...whilst Sam + Jonathan + 3m1½f to 3m3½f + 6-10 yr olds + Dec-April + 11/30 dslr + 7/1 max odds = 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for 29.5pts (+268.3%) and these runners include 6/10 after a top 3 finish LTO, 4/6 at this trip, 4/5 here at Catterick (all over C&D) and 1/1 at Class 4. Those 11 also include Ask Paddy who is currently (8.50am) priced at 11/4 BOG to win the previous 4.15 race on this card...  

...but my selection is...a 1pt win bet on Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday,but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Chelmsford : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Went right start, led, steadied halfway, quickened 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, shaken up inside final 2f, ran on but headed at post, beaten by a nose) : this sort of typifies my luck right now, but for bad luck, I'd have none!

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reeves @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

Not much to go at today in our price range, but I've found one that looks a big price considering his profile. He's 4 yr old gelding who admittedly needs to bounce back from an unusually below-par run last time out in his fifth run on the All-Weather.

He had won his previous four, so he's now 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 13.93pts (+278.7% ROI) away from the turf and this includes of note today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) as a non-favourite
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.76pts (+244%) at 14-28 days since last run
  • 3/3 (100%) for 10.76pts (+358.8%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.14pts (+238.1%) under jockey Sean Davis
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.52pts (+426%) in 6-runner contests
  • 1/2 (50%) for 2.79pts (+139.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over 6f
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over this course and distance

...whilst his trainer Robert Cowell is 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 18.5pts (+59.7% ROI) with horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 11/2 (our rough SotD range) in Wolverhampton A/W handicaps since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 17pts (+68%) with male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.22pts (+73.4%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 6.11pts (+61.1%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) in races worth more than £10k
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.4pts (+110%) at Class 2...

...whilst males in 6-9 runner contests at 11-20 dslr are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.68pts (+153.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 for 6.4pts at Class 2 with one of those Class 2 wins coming from Reeves here last December with Sean Davis in the saddle...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Reeves @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday, although Bet365 were offering half a point more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2020

/by

Friday's pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 6/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £12,291 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has 4 wins from 14 on the A/W so far, including...

  • 4/12 at 9.5-10 furlongs
  • 4/10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/11 on Polytrack
  • 3/8 at Class 2
  • 1/2 here at Chelmsford
  • 1/2 over course and distance

He is trained by William Haggas, about whom there are quite a few relevant angles at play today. If I can get this to work (others here at Geegeez are far better than I at putting graphics up), then here are just three that will help us today...

1. For 82 winners from 229 runners (35.8% SR) and 50.7pts profit at an ROI of 22.2%, including 23/49 (46.9%) for 44.1pts (+89.9%) at Class 1/2...

2. Whilst he is 26 from 91 (28.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+12.2% ROI) under the following conditions, including 21/59 (35.6%) for 31.3pts (+53.1%) on the All-Weather...

3. And for 15 winners from 28 (53.6% SR) and 35.7pts profit at an ROI of 127.4%, we have...

...all of which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2020

/by

Thursday's pick was...

4.50 Southwell : Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Led, headed over 2f out, no extra)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare broke a losing run when successful here at this track four weeks ago under today's jockey Barry McHugh who is 5 from 25 (20% SR) for 101.4pts (+405.6% ROI) in the last 30 days, including...

  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 103.4pts (+449.4%) in races worth £2.5-4k
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 107.4pts (+565.1%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 4/20 (20%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%) in handicaps
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 21.3pts (+151.9%) at odds of 2/1 to 10/1
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 108.9pts (+777.9%) on tapeta
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.8pts (+127.2%) at Class 6
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 23.8pts (+297.6%) on 7-9 yr olds
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 92.1pts (+1023.6%) on female runners

...and at £2.5-4k + 9-11 runners + hcps + 2/1 to 10/1 + Tapeta + Class 6 + 7-9 yr olds = 3/4 (75% SR) for 27.8pts (+695.1%)

That's over the past month, of course, but if we extend our date range, we see that Barry is 7 from 29 (24.1% SR) for 71pts (+244.8% ROI) here at Wolverhampton over the last six months, including...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 75.9pts (+344.9%) for prizes of less than £4,000
  • 5/20 (25%) for 67.1pts (+335.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 72.32pts (+723.2%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 11.05pts (+78.9%) at Evens to 8/1
  • 3/12 (25%) for 23.8pts (+198.1%) at Class 6
  • 3/12 (25%) for 10.95pts (+91.25%) on females
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 53.9pts (+1078%) over today's course and distance...

...and he now rides a mare, who herself is 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 46.3pts (+272.2% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton and these include of relevance/note today...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 47.3pts (+295.5%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 55.3pts (+691.3%) off a mark (OR) of 55-62
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 33.2pts (+302.1%) carrying 9st 4lbs to 9st 7lbs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 34.22pts (+342.2%) at Class 6
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 29.8pts (+270.7%) at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs
  • 3/10 (30%) for 32.98pts (+329.8%) at 16-36 days since last run
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 35pts (+437.3%) during January to March
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 23.1pts (+384.6%) in cheekpieces

...whilst at £0-4k + OR 55-62 + 9-04 to 9-07 + C6 + less than 30dslr, she is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 27.8pts (+693.9% ROI) on this track, including 2/3 at 8.5-9.5f, 2/2 in Jan/Feb, 1/2 in cheekpieces and also includes her last run/win...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.25am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I've a doctor's appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2020

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

3.55 Doncaster : My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Raced wide, held up, not fluent 1st, headway 12th, ridden and weakened after 3 out)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Sorry for the delay this morning. We'd a storm and subsequent power cut overnight here. I'd already gone through the cards last night before bed, so it was just a case of checking prices this morning, so rest assured, I've put the normal amount of work into finding today's pick, but as we're against the clock, I'll keep the write-up brief...

...about a 4 yr old filly whose last two runs were a runner-up finish here on the A/W over 2m 0.5f ahead of a win LTO over hurdles in a Class 4, 2m contest at Ludlow. This might suggest she's a better hurdler than on the A/W, where she runs at Class 6, but we'll see!

Her yard is going well enough of late, Gay Kelleway's A/W runners are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 41.4pts (+197.3% ROI) over the past month, including...

  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 11.43pts (+103.9%) here at Southwell
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 19.94pts (+221.5%) at Class 6
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 8.74pts (+218.4%) at Class 6 here at Southwell...

...which is fairly unsurprising to me, as her record here at this venue since 2016 stands at 16 winners from 91 (17.6% SR) for 44.05pts (+48.4% ROI) backed blindly and here's how she got those 16 winners based on today's conditions...

  • 14 came from 70 (20%) in December-March for 57.55pts (+82.2%)
  • 13 came from 70 (18.6%) over 6f to 1m4f for 52pts (+74.3%)
  • 13 came from 67 (19.4%) at Class 5/6 for 22.9pts (+33.9%)
  • 12 came from 62 (19.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 for 25pts (+40.4%)
  • 6 came from 14 (42.9%) sent off at Evens to 10/3 for 8.02pts (+57.3%)
  • 5 came from 18 (27.8%) 8-runner contests for 39.57pts (+219.9%)
  • and 3 came from 11 (27.3%) races over this 1m4f C&D for 25.05pts (+227.7%)

...whilst at Class 5/6 over 6f to 1m4f during December to March for prizes of less than £4k, those 91 original Gay Kelleway Southwell runners are 9 from 37 (24.3% SR) for 35.05pts (+94.7% ROI) including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.23pts (+140.8%) over this 1m4f C&D...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 9.30am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I've a doctor's appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2020

/by

Tuesday's pick was...

8.00 Southwell : Social City @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Mid-division, outpaced over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £18,768 to the winner...

Why?...

This 10 yr old mare is a lightly-raced veteran if that's not an oxymoron, having only raced 12 times (inc 4 wins) so far, including a 3 from 6 record over fences where she's hardly over-exposed. She won a similar (albeit open age) Class 2 handicap chase here over course and distance on her last outing just over two months when once again partnered by today's jockey, Brian Hughes.

She has 4 wins from 12 to date and here's how, under today's conditions, she got those wins...

  • all four came from 9 races at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 3 from 7 in handicaps
  • 3 from 4 at 3m-3m1f
  • 2 from 5 on soft
  • 2 from 5 under Brian Hughes
  • 2 from 2 at 3m
  • 1 from 1 at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 here at Doncaster (over C&D LTO at C2, of course)

Her jockey Brian Hughes is 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 18.1pts (+60.2% ROI) at this venue over jumps since the start of last year.

And she's trainer Nicky Richards' only runner of the day today and such solo travellers are 35 from 119 (29.4% SR) for 49.1pts (+41.3% ROI) since 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 34/110 (30.9%) for 49.8pts (+45.3%) for prizes up to £21k
  • 20/49 (40.8%) for 54.4pts (+111.1%) during Dec-March
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 30.05pts (+71.6%) on Soft/heavy
  • 14/50 928%) for 21.4pts (+42.8%) over fences
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 25pts (+166.6%) over 3 miles
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 4.4pts (+21.1%) from LTO winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 19.5pts (+130%) at Class 2
  • 4/10 (40%) for 11.87pts (+118.7%) from 10 yr olds
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 19.5pts (+324.5%) at Doncaster
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.36pts (+245.3%) in races for 10yo+ horses

...whilst in chases worth £4-21k on soft/heavy during Dec-March, they are 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 16.87pts (+105.4% ROI), including 2/3 at 3m, 2/3 from LTO winners, 1/1 from 10 yr olds and 1/1 at C2...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Marathon at 8.00am Wednesday, whilst Unibet were half a point bigger, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th February 2020

/by

Monday's pick was...

4.30 Carlisle : Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Social City @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding is 313 in handicaps so far, having won over this trip prior to a narrow (0.75 length) defeat over 2m at Lingfield 27 days ago at this grade, despite being forced to run quite wide. The winner has since stepped up two classes and won again, so hopefully that form pans out for us here.

Hayley Turner is in the saddle today and has been quietly impressive in A/W handicaps since coming back and since the end of July 2018, she has 22 winners from 156 (14.1% SR) for 71.2pts (+45.6% ROI) and she has been in excellent form more recently winning 6 of 17 (35.3%) for 51.4pts (+302.1%) over the last 4 weeks.

Trainer Tony Carroll's runners are 12 from 57 (21.1% SR) for 31.5pts (+55.3% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 11/1 in A/W handicaps of 1m6f and beyond since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 33.3pts (+123.3%) during December to April
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 18.8pts (+64.9%) at Class 6
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.5%) at Class 6 during December to April
  • and 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 5.63pts (+80.4%) here at Southwell...

...where more specifically, he is 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 17.8pts (+74% ROI) at odds of Evens to 9/2 since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 18.2pts (+95.8%) after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 22.6pts (+188.6%) in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 13.8pts (+114.9%) with 3-4 yr olds
  • 8/9 (88.9%) for 25.6pts (+284.8%) in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 7/10 (70%) for 15.79pts (+157.9%) with 3-4 yr olds after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 6/8 (75%) for 15.2pts (+190.1%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners
  • and 6 from 6 (100%) for 17.2pts (+286.7%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest ...

All the above 7 facts also apply to Tony's runner, Luscifer, who is currently priced at 11/8 BOG in the 5.30 race here today...

...but the decision is...a 1pt win bet on Social City @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

1.30 Haydock : Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m1f on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old mare is currently 4 from 20 (20% SR) which on face value is definitely reasonable and worth a second look. When you do look closer, you'll find that in the context of this race, her numbers are excellent when compared to her 7 rivals here , who are a combined 4 from 127 (3.15% SR)!

She has also made the frame in 7 of 16 defeats, meaning she has placed in 55% of all contests including the four wins and her 4/20 record includes of relevance today...

  • 4 wins and 6 places from 17 on soft/heavy
  • 4 and 6 from 16 with a 5-7lb claimer on board
  • 4 and 5 from 15 after 10-50 days rest
  • 4 and 6 from 14 in 5-9 runner contests
  • 4 and 5 from 13 from Jan-April
  • 4 and 3 from 8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 and 6 from 15 over 2m-2m1f
  • 3 and 4 from 10 with Abbie McCain in the saddle
  • 3 and 2 from 8 on soft ground
  • 2 and 5 from 12 at Class 4

...and 5-7lb claimer + 5-9 runners + soft/heavy + Jan-April + 4/1 max odds + 11-50 dslr = 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 11.55pts (+288.8% ROI), including...

  • 3/3 for Abbie McCain
  • 3/3 on soft
  • 3/3 at 2m-2m1f
  • and 2/2 at Class 4

The potential fly in the ointment is the weight, of course. As she's so consistent and clearly the best horse in the race, she gets no help from the handicapper today. Jockey Abbie's 5lb claim is the only relief available, but there's a precedent here, as since the start of 2015, Donald McCain's handicap hurdlers that are top weight have won 8 of 30 (26.7% SR) for 13.7pts (+45.7% ROI) profit when sent off at Evens to 10/1 with a claimer jockey on board, including the following at play today...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 19.7pts (+82.1%) in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 21.7pts (+98.6%) at 1-30 dslr
  • 7/20 (35%) for 20.4pts (+102%) with 7-9 yr olds
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 2.4pts (+67.3%) at Class 4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.6pts (+104.9%) on soft/heavy
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.4pts (+70.1%) over 2m-2m2f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103.1%) on soft
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 3.13pts (+62.6%) for Abbie McCain...

...whilst 4-9 runners + 1-30dslr + 6-9 yr old + Class 4 = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 28.4pts (+315.7% ROI), including...

  • 4/4 at 2m-2m2f
  • 4/4 on soft/heavy
  • 3/3 on soft...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!