Stat of the Day, 7th March 2020
Friday's pick was...
3.10 Chelmsford : Krazy Paving @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Chased leader, challenged going well over 2f out, carried right and led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong)
Saturday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1f on soft ground worth £3,184 to the winner...
Why?...
This 9 yr old mare has 2 wins and 2 places from her 7 handicap hurdles efforts since the start of 2019, including 2 from 6 under today's jockey, 2 from 3 here at Ayr, culminating in a win here over 3m0.5f on heavy ground last time out, 48 days ago with today's rider Henry Brooke in the saddle.
Her trainer, Julia Brooke, doesn't have the largest string of runners at her disposal, nor is she a prolific winner, but she does well here at Ayr, where her runners are four times more likely to win as they would elsewhere with this track providing 21.4% of her career winners from just 6.4% of her total runners!
Numerically, we're looking at a career record of 28/298 (9.4% SR) generating 6 winners from 19 (31.6% SR) for 32.5pts (+171.2% ROI) here at Ayr, as opposed to 22 from 279 (7.9%) elsewhere and although we're not talking about huge numbers here, those six Ayr winners include of relevance today...
- 6/18 (33.3%) for 33.5pts (+186.2%) in handicaps
- 6/12 (50%) for 39.5pts (+329.3%) with 8-10 yr olds
- 5/15 (33.3%) for 31.1pts (+207.1%) in NH races
- 5/13 (38.5%) for 15.7pts (+120.5%) since the start of 2019
- 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.7pts (+218.6%) at odds of 2/1 to 5/1
- 4/11 (36.4%) for 31.1pts (+282.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
- 3/11 (27.3%) for 25.7pts (+233.2%) over hurdles
- 3/11 (27.3%) for 25.7pts (+233.2%) at Class 5
- and 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.3pts (+175.2%) for jockey Henry Brooke...
...whilst since the start of 2019, Julia's 8-10 yr old NH handicappers at 2/1 to 5/1 here at Ayr have won 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 19.2pts (+480% ROI), including 3 for Henry Brooke, 2 at Class 5, 2 over hurdles and 2 in races worth less than £4k...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.55am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Ayr
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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