Stat of the Day, 6th February 2020
Wednesday's pick was...
4.00 Southwell : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1 (Always in rear)
Thursday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG
...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...
Why?...
This 7 yr old gelding quite probably needed the run last time out, when finishing fourth here over course and distance a fortnight ago in a better field than this one. He was coming back from a 3-month break that day, but got going late on to stay on into fourth, beaten by just over a length and a quarter.
This looks a slightly weaker contest (based on OR marks) against fewer rivals with the benefits of (a) having had a run, (b) being eased a pound by the assessor and (c) having a 7lb claimer ride instead of a 5lb one, making him effectively 3lbs better off here.
He is currently 3 from 12 (25% SR) for 2.5pts (+20.8% ROI) profit backed blindly over today's track and trip in handicap contests, including...
- 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.5pts (+81.2%) at odds shorter than 8/1
- 3/3 (100%) for 11.5pts (+383.2%) carrying 9st 1lb to 9st 3lbs after allowances, of course
- 2/4 (50%) for 2.09pts (+52.1%) after a break of 1-2 weeks
...and he's 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 4.09pts (+204.5% ROI) when all three of the above are aligned as they are today.
His record here comes as less of a surprise, if you know that he's by Frozen Power, whose offspring are 19 from 66 (28.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+61.4% ROI) profit since the start of 2016 in UK A/W handicaps on Tapeta over trips shorter than 1m2f at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note/relevance today...
- 18/58 (31%) for 40.1pts (+69.2%) within six weeks of their last run
- 15/50 (30%) for 30.1pts (+60.2%) at trips of 5-7f
- 14/44 (31.8%) for 27.7pts (+62.9%) at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run
- 9/31 (29%) for 13.1pts (+42.3%) here at Newcastle
- 9/25 (36%) for 19.1pts (+76.4%) here at Newcastle at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run
- 3/10 (30%) for 13.43pts (+134.3%) in February
- and 2/5 (40%) for 10.02pts (+200.4%) in February at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run...
...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Thursday morning with some 3/1 at SkyBet too, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Newcastle
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
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