Tag Archive for: Newcastle racecourse

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2020

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Ludlow : Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG PU at 3/1 (Held up, headway 13th, mistake next, weakened before 4 out, pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Watheer @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 7, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,523 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has finished 212 in his last three runs and now drops into this basement grade for the first time, where I'm hoping he'll just be a bit too good. He has the benefit of a track specialist on board today, as jockey Callum Rodriguez is 42 from 238 (17.7% SR) for 126.1pts (+53% ROI) on the Tapeta here at Newcastle, including 14 from 51 (27.5%) for 106.5pts (+208.7%) in 1m course and distance handicaps.

Trainer Roger Fell often sends horses back out fairly quickly to good effect and since the start of 2018, his A/W handicappers rested for less than three weeks are 29 from 176 (16.5% SR) for 254.3pts (+144.5% ROI), from which those racing over trips of a mile or shorter are 25 from 137 (18.25%) for 277.8pts (+202.8%)

And my third and final (hurray, he's keeping it brief!) set of data for today tells us that Roger Fell's Class 4 or lower handicappers wearing cheekpieces and racing over trips shorter than 1m1f are 11 from 60 (18.3% SR) for 119.3pts (+198.9% ROI) since the start of 2017 when they've worn that headgear on fewer than three previous occasions, including...

  • 11/47 (23.4%) for 132.3pts (+281.6%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 5/20 (25%) for 95.7pts (+478.7%) on the A/W
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 75.9pts (+444.4%) on tapeta
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.21pts (+20.1%) after a top 2 finish LTO...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Watheer @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.05am Friday with plenty 11/4 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2020

Monday's pick was...

4.10 Plumpton : Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 15/2 (Led until after 1st, chased leader until before 3 out, went 2nd again before next, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Our hand has been forced slightly again by the weather, but I think we've got a good chance with this 5 yr old Mare looking to snap a long losing run, now that she's rated (OR) 3lbs lower than her last win.

She showed signs of a return to form five days ago when finishing as a runner-up over course and distance of today's mark of 64 in a Class 5 contest and with a drop in class allied to having a 5lb claimer on her back here, she could go one better today turned back out quickly.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it fairly brief and simple, as I try to unravel why she is running again so quickly and the obvious thing is that her handlers feel she's ready to win after that seeming return to form and a closer analysis of the yard's MO backs this up as...

...trainer Michael Herrington is 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 22.1pts (+31.5% ROI) when backing all his UK handicappers since the start of 2016 turned back out within a fortnight of finishing in the first three home last time out, including of relevance today...

  • 15/44 (34.1%) for 24.2pts (+55.1%) at odds of Evens to 6/1
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 22.8pts (+43.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 33.8pts (+86.6%) with 2-6 yr olds
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.1pts (+62%) at Class 6
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 13.7pts (+40.4%) on Tapeta
  • 6/20 (30%) for 18.6pts (+93%) over trips of 7 to 9.5 furlongs
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.65pts (+105.9%) with female runners

...whilst his 2-6 yr olds sent off at Evens to 6/1 in Class 6 contests on Tapeta are 4/10 (40% SR) for 8.81pts (+88.1% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Unibet at 8.03am Tuesday will Hills offering slightly more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th February 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

4.00 Southwell : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1 (Always in rear)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding quite probably needed the run last time out, when finishing fourth here over course and distance a fortnight ago in a better field than this one. He was coming back from a 3-month break that day, but got going late on to stay on into fourth, beaten by just over a length and a quarter.

This looks a slightly weaker contest (based on OR marks) against fewer rivals with the benefits of (a) having had a run, (b) being eased a pound by the assessor and (c) having a 7lb claimer ride instead of a 5lb one, making him effectively 3lbs better off here.

He is currently 3 from 12 (25% SR) for 2.5pts (+20.8% ROI) profit backed blindly over today's track and trip in handicap contests, including...

  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.5pts (+81.2%) at odds shorter than 8/1
  • 3/3 (100%) for 11.5pts (+383.2%) carrying 9st 1lb to 9st 3lbs after allowances, of course
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2.09pts (+52.1%) after a break of 1-2 weeks

...and he's 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 4.09pts (+204.5% ROI) when all three of the above are aligned as they are today.

His record here comes as less of a surprise, if you know that he's by Frozen Power, whose offspring are 19 from 66 (28.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+61.4% ROI) profit since the start of 2016 in UK A/W handicaps on Tapeta over trips shorter than 1m2f at odds of 8/1 and shorter, including of note/relevance today...

  • 18/58 (31%) for 40.1pts (+69.2%) within six weeks of their last run
  • 15/50 (30%) for 30.1pts (+60.2%) at trips of 5-7f
  • 14/44 (31.8%) for 27.7pts (+62.9%) at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run
  • 9/31 (29%) for 13.1pts (+42.3%) here at Newcastle
  • 9/25 (36%) for 19.1pts (+76.4%) here at Newcastle at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run
  • 3/10 (30%) for 13.43pts (+134.3%) in February
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.02pts (+200.4%) in February at trips of 5-7f within six weeks of their last run...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.00am Thursday morning with some 3/1 at SkyBet too, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2020

Monday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders on outside, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon hung right, headed and no extra close home) - pretty much typifying my luck right now!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Amateur Riders Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Soft ground worth £3,619 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, firstly let's just say that the weather has forced my hand somewhat, removing the options I was considering at Lingfield for today's piece/pick. But we are committed to provide a pick each day as long as there's UK racing to pick from, so via a selection route less frequently worn by me for SotD, let me explain this pick...

He's a lightly raced (3 x bumpers, 3 x hurdles) 6 yr old gelding seemingly unsuited by the tightness of Fakenham when 4th of 10 on New Year's Day, but did go well on soft ground when a runner-up two starts ago in early December at Sedgefield, so I'd expect him to cope with the mud. He looks more of a stayer than "sprinter" if there's such a thing over obstacles, so a step up in trip could well be beneficial, as should the dropping of two classes to run here today.

So we know he's lightly raced and have made some reasonable assumptions about his suitability re: race conditions. We normally then look at trainer & jockey, but the yard is a small quiet one and the jockey appears to be making his debut. None of which is probably filling any of you with much hope, but all is not lost, as we've a way in via the sire Linda's Lad, a former Group 3 winner over middle distance on the Flat in his day, but also a "producer" of quite a few NH winners.

In fact, his offspring are 27 from 149 (18.1% SR) in NH contests since the start of 2018 with the resultant 118.9pts profit equating to some 79.8% of stakes invested and from these runners, there's actually a myriad of angles to consider. I'm "just" going to give you a baker's dozen of them, all relevant today and all profitable, of course!

So of the 27/149 headline stat...

  • 27/147 (18.4%) for 120.9pts (+82.2%) from males
  • 26/126 (20.6%) for 73.9pts (+58.7%) aged 5-8
  • 25/88 (28.4%) for 72pts (+81.8%) at odds shorter than 12/1
  • 24/106 (22.6%) for 151.8pts (+143.2%) over trips of 2m½f to 3m½f
  • 21/110 (19.1%) for 122.7pts (+111.6%) from November to April
  • 20/113 (17.7%) for 89.9pts (+79.5%) in the UK
  • 18/111 (16.2%) for 78.8pts (+71%) in races worth less than £8,000
  • 17/95 (17.9%) for 110.9pts (+116.7%) over hurdles
  • 17/85 (20%) for 96.7pts (+113.7%) going left handed
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 35.1pts (+46.1%) in handicaps
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 77.3pts (+184.1%) at 21-30 days since last run
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 40.4pts (+122.4%) off marks (OR) of 101-120
  • 7/28 (25%) for 4.86pts (+17.4%) on soft ground in the UK

...whilst 5-8 yr old males sent off shorter than 12/1 in UK hurdle races worth less than £8,000 over trips of 2m½f to 3m½f are 13 from 29 (44.8% SR) for 63pts (+217.25% ROI) and these include 5/11 (45.5%) off marks of 101-120, 5/9 (55.6%) after 21-30 dslr and 5/7 (71.4%) on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.10am Tuesday morning from Bet365, 888Sport & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th January 2020

Saturday's pick was...

7.15 Chelmsford : Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on inside final furlong, no impression, went 3rd post)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, this horse's name just kept on cropping up in all my shortlist reports, so here's just a brief overview of a handful of them...

1. This 12 yr old gelding may be getting on, but he's still running well and is 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.88pts (+60.6% ROI) in handicap chases, including 4/8 under today's jockey Danny Cook, 3/10 at Class 4 and 2/3 at today's trip.

2. He's by Desert King, whose offspring are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 71.3pts (+60.4% ROI) in handicap chases over the last four years, including 14/50 (28%) for 53.55pts (+107.1%) at trips shorter than 2m2f.

3. Jockey Danny Cook is 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 8.55pts (+22.5% ROI) over the past 30 days, trainer Sue Smith is 9/33 (27.3%) for 13.55pts (+41.1%) on the same period, whilst together they are 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.55pts (+94%) including 6/12 950%) for 20pts (+166.4%) in chases.

4. More longer-term than just the last month or so, Sue Smith is 28/89 (31.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+100.9% ROI) in handicaps during January since the start of 2016 from which, soft ground runners are 14/36 (38.9%) for 50.7pts (+140.7%)

5. And finally for today, Sue's last 50 handicap chasers to be sent off at Evens to 13/2 here at Newcastle have generated 14 victories (28% SR) and 12.6pts profit at an ROI of 25.2% and they include the following of relevance today...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.73pts (+23.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 11/36 ((30.6%) for 17.46pts (+48.5%) during November to January
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 14.48pts (+43.9%) on Soft ground
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 7.82pts (+24.4%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.61pts (+137.2%) over today's course and distance...

...whilst during Nov-Jan, Danny and Sue are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 6.04pts (+31.8% ROI)at Class 3/4 on Soft ground, including 2/4 (50%) for 6.08pts (+152%) over course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 20th January 2020

Saturday's pick was...

7.15 Chelmsford : Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Held up in rear, not clear run over 1f out, soon switched right, kept on inside final furlong, no impression, went 3rd post)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, this horse's name just kept on cropping up in all my shortlist reports, so here's just a brief overview of a handful of them...

1. This 12 yr old gelding may be getting on, but he's still running well and is 4 from 13 (30.8% SR) for 7.88pts (+60.6% ROI) in handicap chases, including 4/8 under today's jockey Danny Cook, 3/10 at Class 4 and 2/3 at today's trip.

2. He's by Desert King, whose offspring are 23/118 (19.5% SR) for 71.3pts (+60.4% ROI) in handicap chases over the last four years, including 14/50 (28%) for 53.55pts (+107.1%) at trips shorter than 2m2f.

3. Jockey Danny Cook is 9/38 (23.7% SR) for 8.55pts (+22.5% ROI) over the past 30 days, trainer Sue Smith is 9/33 (27.3%) for 13.55pts (+41.1%) on the same period, whilst together they are 9/24 (37.5%) for 22.55pts (+94%) including 6/12 950%) for 20pts (+166.4%) in chases.

4. More longer-term than just the last month or so, Sue Smith is 28/89 (31.5% SR) for 89.8pts (+100.9% ROI) in handicaps during January since the start of 2016 from which, soft ground runners are 14/36 (38.9%) for 50.7pts (+140.7%)

5. And finally for today, Sue's last 50 handicap chasers to be sent off at Evens to 13/2 here at Newcastle have generated 14 victories (28% SR) and 12.6pts profit at an ROI of 25.2% and they include the following of relevance today...

  • 13/45 (28.9%) for 10.73pts (+23.8%) at Class 3/4
  • 11/36 ((30.6%) for 17.46pts (+48.5%) during November to January
  • 10/33 (30.3%) for 14.48pts (+43.9%) on Soft ground
  • 10/32 (31.25%) for 7.82pts (+24.4%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 9.61pts (+137.2%) over today's course and distance...

...whilst during Nov-Jan, Danny and Sue are 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 6.04pts (+31.8% ROI)at Class 3/4 on Soft ground, including 2/4 (50%) for 6.08pts (+152%) over course and distance...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2020

Thursday's pick was...

1.10 Market Rasen : Oscar's Leader @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 15/8 (Tracked leaders, ridden and weakened before last)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly isn't an obvious pick on form, but she has been well rested (12 weeks) ahead of returning in the type of contest her trainer does well in.

Taking a fairly pared-back simple approach today, my way in is that John (JJ) Quinn + Newcastle A/W hcps + 5-8 furlongs + Evens to 8/1 = 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+58.5% ROI) over the last three years, including at play today...

  • 9/30 (30%) for 34.5pts (+115.1%) in fields of 6-12 runners
  • 8/34 (23.5%) for 25.4pts (+74.6%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 37.4pts (+178.1%) during December to April
  • 6/27 (22.2%) for 18.1pts (+66.9%) at Class 6
  • 6/21 (28.6%) for 27.9pts (+132.8%) from those unplaced LTO
  • and 3/5 (60%) for 15.6pts (+312%) from those returning from a break of more than 75 days...

...whilst Class 6 runners competing against 6-11 rivals for less than £4,000 during December to April are 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 24.3pts (+221.2% ROI)...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Friday morning and was widely available by 8.35am (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!