Stat of the Day: The 2019 Review
*IMPORTANT: the email I sent this morning opened with "Let me start with the caveat. Free, potentially, yes; but risk-free"
It should have said "Free, potentially, yes; but NOT risk-free" - sincere apologies. Matt
Last Tuesday marked the end of SotD's eighth full calendar year since its inception as a non-tipping piece back in November 2011, so thank you to those of you (including Matt) for putting up with me all that time!
The logic behind this daily feature is to take a slight step from the normal form book/ race card approach to betting, since form is temporary at best and race cards are still largely inadequate, although Matt's efforts here at Geegeez are the exception to the rule.
My brief is to give some statistical pointers as to how you could frame a bet from another angle and whilst we don't expect all of them to win, we do expect a decent run for our money and often the stats we quote will pinpoint winners elsewhere too. So it's really more than a tip, it's a way-in to a bet that you can use over and over again.
We attract lots of new members to the site every year, thanks mainly to the continual improvements made to the racing toolkit and partly due to SotD's success, and this is bringing in more savvy punters looking for better data, information and racecards than they'll find anywhere else on the 'net, so here's briefly how I "do my bit"...
My first port of call is find runners who fit a stat (or usually a number of stats) suggesting they will go well. I have quite a large portfolio of saved micro-systems and angles (our Query Tool is brilliant for this) and they generate a list of possibles each day. I also look at the Shortlist report and the qualifiers generated from the Report Angles facility and I end up with a fairly long list of horses/races to assess.
I then cross off the races that I don't even want to consider and only then do I start to look at a race card. Where I have multiple selections in a race, I'll then make a decision on which would be my preferred runner in the race. At this point, I should now have less than 10 races/horses on my shortlist, I then put them in an order that I think reflects their likelihood of winning and at this point, I look at the prices.
Once I've got the prices, I cross out those that don't offer me enough perceived value and then the one that now stands top of the list is the daily selection. We aim to have the selection online in the early evening before racing (preferably by 6.00pm) where possible but occasionally due to home-life, travel plans and/or holidays, it can be later, but there's a selection every day except Sundays and we don't take Bank Holidays, Easter nor Christmas off!
That said, we are currently trialling a morning of racing delivery of Stat of the Day, with the pick generally online by 8.15am.
I try to find runners priced around the 11/4 to 6/1 mark at BOG prices and look for some value in the odds achieved, but sometimes I have to stray outside those parameters a little. A large proportion of selections are sent off at much shorter odds than advised, and constantly beating SP is a key in making long-term profits. Basically, our profit figures aren't massaged by some freakishly long-priced winners, nor is our strike rate bolstered by a string of odds-on jollies.
What we do have is a consistent approach that aims to highlight one value selection per day and although this "one-a-day" stats-based approach to bet selection suffers all the obligatory peaks and troughs associated with betting on horses, we did manage to make a profit yet again in 2019, but it was a real tough slog towards the end of the year, if I'm brutally honest.
Normally at this point, I'm typing this out with a fairly satisfied smile on my face, but the final quarter of the year gave us little to smile about. Nevertheless, the bigger picture is that we managed to secure yet another yearly profit, our eighth on the bounce. We're quietly proud of our record of profit in every year since SotD's inception, for what is essentially a free add-on to the Gold toolbox package, but we're also aware that recent form has been below long-term levels... although I think I said that form was only temporary anyway!
A full month-by-month analysis of SotD's results can always be found at
http://www.geegeez.co.uk/stat-of-the-day-month-by-month/ , and the overall picture for 2019 was as follows:
Number of bets/selections/pts wagered: 290 (two fewer than 2018)
Winning Bets: 66 (67 in 2018)
Strike Rate: 22.76% (2018 = 22.95%)
Average payout from winning bet : 3.93/1 (2018 = 3.57/1)
Yearly Profit: 35.46pts (2018 = 14.16pts)
Profit on Stakes Invested: 12.23% (2018 was 4.85%)
From inception in November 2011 to end 2019: +531.87 points
The overall bottom line is still, we think, impressive and one that both Matt and I (it's a team game) are happy with; and, although I've been quite vocal in expressing my disappointment about the way 2019 fizzled out, a 12.23% return actually shows us in a good light against many of our peers.
We're already up and running for January, a month that has traditionally been kind to us, so fingers crossed for more of the same and a good year overall.
Many Thanks for being a part of Geegeez and SotD,
Chris, Matt and the whole Geegeez team.
Hi Chris ,Matt and all of the Geegeez team,
Happy new year to everyone and 2020 will be a record breaking year.Have just seen the brief for 2019 and there shouldn’t be any disappointment at all .Another 12% plus profit for the year is fantastic but what i like overall is your commitment every day to SoD. Also the overall profit for the last 8 years (av 66 points per year).Not many/any services can better that in 8 years .A massive congratulations guys .
You mentioned about your saved micro systems and was wandering if it would be possible to maybe post the ones you like or have found the most profitable over the last few years ?
Again well done guys .Bring on 2020 .
Regards
Steve [marso88]
my problem with stat of the day was getting on at the price you post ,the profit you quote is that a mix of posted odds and guaranteed better odds later, if it is I would think not many get that, For me I would say apart from any family or other problems a set time each evening should be met when a e-mail would be sent to all gold members with the selection, There by it gives everybody same chance to get on, Having to log on at no given time is way to much hit and miss, Plus a new problem is some bookmakers have changed the time they give best odds guaranteed, the other evening I backed ew 1st 4 at 16-1 it went to 50-1 next day ouch was not one of the things I said richard
As per the blurb I post every day, every SotD selection is instantly heralded on facebook & twitter.
Follow us there and you’ll know when it’s posted.
I have no intention of emailing every subscriber with every selection : not all Gold subscribers back my selections.
I think that a post by 08.30 am on day of race would suit most and possibly eliminate to some extent everyone chasing the advised odds with just one bookmaker. I sometimes take a slightly lower price to avoid restrictions and closures (if the price drifts nothing is lost if you are on at BOG).
Hi Chris. Happy new year and I hope 2020 brings continued great outcomes for all who follow SOTD and for you and your family personally. I much prefer the early evening selections, my work days start early and makes the opportunity to access SOTD a little hit and miss. Geegeez sends regular emails out and therefore must have automatic mailing lists. There is now a fair bit of evidence available related to political manipulation associated with social media particularly Facebook and Twitter and the only way to beat that is not to use them I therefore exited all social media about 18months ago. As a consequence I now have much more time to select horses and my profit has improved but have to constantly log in to my Geegeez account to see if SOTD has been posted, an automated email would definitely work for me. Keep up the good work, well done, Pete.
Well, if we do continue to post morning picks, then you’ll know to login around 8.10 to 8.15am.