Stat of the Day, 6th January 2020
Saturday's pick was...
11.40 Lingfield : Capriolette @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway 2f out, ridden and unable to quicken over 1f out, kept on one pace)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG
...in an 8-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...
Why?...
This 9 yr old gelding is a former dual PTP winner and was also a winner under Rules over fences when last seen 11 days ago (Boxing Day). He landed a similar Class 5 contest at Sedgefield on soft ground that day with today's jockey, Conor O'Farrell, in the saddle.
Conor's in really good touch post-Christmas, landing three winners on Boxing Day amongst his 7 from 23 (30.4% SR) record since the break that has rewarded those following him with 64.1pts profit at an ROI of some 278.1%, including...
- 6/12 (50%) for 55.1pts (+458.8%) over trips shorter than 2m1f
- 5/13 (38.5%) for 68pts (+523.4%) in handicaps
- 4/5 (80%) for 56pts (+1120%) in handicaps shorter than 2m1f
- 2/7 (28.6%) for 4.88pts (+69.7%) over fences
- 2/5 (40%) for 2.81pts (+56.2%) at Class 5
- 2/4 (50%) for 2pts (+50%) at odds shorter than 5/1
- and 1/1 (100%) (on Ripstick LTO) for 4.94pts (+494%) for today's trainer James Walton...
...whose handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 14/1 are 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 23.6pts (+78.7% ROI) over the last two years, including of note today...
- 6/23 (26.1%) for 30.6pts (+133%) with 8-11 yr olds
- 5/23 (21.7%) for 14.7pts (+64%) with those sent off shorter than 10/1
- 5/11 (45.5%) for 26.7pts (+243%) at Class 5
- and 4/12 (33.3%) for 23.5pts (+195.8%) with Conor O'Farrell in the saddle...
...whilst James' 8-11 yr olds sent off shorter than 10/1 in Class 5 contests are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 29.73pts (+371.6% ROI) with Conor O'Farrell riding 3 winners from 5 (60%) for 14.63pts (+292.6%) profit...
...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365 & BetVictor (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.05am on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 1.35 Ayr
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
Why is SOTD posted so late now? Use be the night before now not even up before i go to work in morning? have i missed something?
Many of our readers just log in, get the selection and then don’t come back for the reasoning, which is perfectly fine, of course, but maybe like them, you’ll not have seen the discussions about odds & BOG etc.
It’s increasingly difficult for any of us to get BOG the night before racing, so any drifters were costing us potential profit.
8.00am now seems to be the time at which more BOG is available, so we’re currently trialling posting shortly after that point.
It means the pick will be up before most people start work and at the end of the day, it’s only a trial. I did ask for people’s opinions, but of the thousands of registered subscribers, I got less than a handful of replies, suggesting either apathy towards the selection time or further proof that people aren’t coming back to read the piece.
The trial might not be a success, but last week’s 7/1 winner would have been a 4/1 play. We need to give it a reasonable go before making a decision.
Chris
Thanks for reply Chris, i missed this and i hate the new BOG changes. I now have to change how i bet i use put all bets on before i went to bed now i’m having find time before i go to work and this can be a bit of a pain BUT guess i need to adjust with the changes. (Last weeks 7/1 winner was in my tracker and i removed after he won at 25/1 the week or so before so glad you put up as i wouldn’t of backed it!)
No problem at all. Personally, it makes my life easier to post the night before, but I can’t grumble about last years figures and the loss of BOG if I don’t at least try to do something about it.
It might well end up going back to how it was and either taking a non-BOG price or Betfair SP and just swallowing our annoyance when a drifter wins.