Sat TV Trends: 14th Dec 2019
A MASSIVE day up at Prestbury Park as the Cheltenham December Meeting continues this Saturday, plus the ITV cameras also head to Doncaster for three races - as always we're on-hand with all the big-race trends and stats…..
Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)
1.55 – Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f ITV4
17/17 – Aged 8 or younger
15/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
14/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
13/17 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
13/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/17 - Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (1 winner, Frodon – Ryanair Chase)
12/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (5 won)
12/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/17 – Officially rated 142 or higher
11/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
10/17 – Unplaced favourites
10/17 – French bred
8/17 – Carried 10-13 or more
7/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Ran in the BetVictor (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
5/17 – Finished in the top 5 in the Bet Victor Gold Cup last time out
5/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Won last time out
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
1/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1
2.30 - Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The Bristol Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
15/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/15 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Aged 6 or younger
13/15 – Winning distance 1 ¼ lengths or more
12/15 – Placed favourites
12/15 – Went on run in the Albert Bartlett (3 won) at the Cheltenham Festival
10/15 – Winning favourite (1 co, 1 joint)
9/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
9/15 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
9/15 – Won last time out
9/15 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a Cheltenham Festival race that season
9/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Had won at Cheltenham before
8/15 – Won over 3m (hurdles) before
2/15 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
9 of the last 10 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting
3.05 – Unibet International Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f ITV4
17/17 – Raced over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
15/17 – Placed in the top 3 in their latest race
15/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles) previously
14/17 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles previously
13/17 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
13/17 – Ran in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
12/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Won their latest race
11/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
11/17 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
11/17 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
9/17 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
9/17 – Rated 162 or higher
7/17 – Winning distance: 4+ lengths
6/17 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
4/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
4/17 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
4/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
4/17 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/17 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won the Betfair Hurdle last time out
3/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
1/17 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)
3.40 – OLBG Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m4 1/2f ITV4
Just previous runnings
All four winners returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
2/4 - winners carried 10-11 in weight
2/4 - winners aged 7 or 8 years-old
1 winning favourite (joint)
Trainers, Dan Skelton, Noel Williams (2), Anthony Honeyball have won the race in the past
Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV4/ATR)
2.10 – bet365 December Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4
9/9 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/9 – Won between 0-2 times over fences
8/9 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
7/9 – Priced 5/2 or shorter in the betting
7/9 – French (2) or Irish (5) bred
6/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 – Placed favourites
5/9 – Winning favourites
4/9 – Won last time out
3/9 – Ran at Haydock last time out
3 of the last 6 runnings have been won by trainer Paul Nicholls
Note: from 2013 back the race was run at Lingfield Park
2.45 – Bet365 Summit Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (3yo) Cl1 2m110y ITV4
9/9 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
8/9 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
8/9 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/9 – Had won just once before over hurdles
7/9 – Irish (3) or French (4) bred
7/9 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
6/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Ran at Market Rasen last time out
2/9 – Trained by John Quinn
2/9 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Peace and Co won the race in 2014 and went onto with the Triumph Hurdle
3.20 – bet365 Handicap Chase (4 yo+) Cl2 3m ITV4
9/10 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Aged 8 or younger
9/10 – Had won no more than 2 times over fences
8/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/10 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
7/10 – Unplaced last time out
7/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Aged 7 years-old
6/10 – Had won over 3m+ (fences) before
6/10 – Ran at Doncaster before
2/10 – Trained by Emma Lavelle
2/10 – Winning favourites
3 of the last 5 winners were all rated 139
TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 19 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!
Just wondering about some of the trends listed. They offer no use really, like any that say something like went onto run somewhere later in the season. We dont know that yet. Also winning distance of 1.25 lengths or more we wont find out until after the race.
I’d disagree. If you know that the winner of a certain race tomorrow often pops up in another race later in the season and does well/badly in that subsequent race, it can help you form your bet later in the season.
So, 12 of the last 16 winners of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (no winners) tells me to probably avoid backing tomorrow’s winner in next year’s Festival.
Trends aren’t just valid for one race.