Stat of the Day, 12th February 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

5.20 Newcastle : Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Held up in rear, smooth headway near side of group halfway, chased leaders 3f out, ridden inside final 2f, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

2.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Liamba @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Fibresand worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old mare wasn't at her best last time out 15 days ago, when beaten here over course and distance, but she did win her two previous outings and there's every chance she'll bounce back today on a track she loves.

Her record here at Southwell stands at 3 wins and 7 further places from 13 efforts, including the following of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 when sent off shorter than 9/1
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 9 off a mark of 61-70
  • 3 wins, 3 places from 8 after 15-30 days rest
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 7 at Class 5

...whilst she's 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 7.3pts (+121.6% ROI) at sub-9/1 odds off a mark of 61-70 returning from 15-30 days off track, including 2 from 5 (40%) for 5.7pts (+114%) at Class 5.

Her trainer, David O'Meara is flying right now, with 3 winners from 6 in the last seven days and an overall 32% strike rate for the past month (8 from 25) and he does have a decent record in this type of contest.

Since the start of 2017, his Class 5 runners competing over 6-7 furlongs here at Southwell have won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for profits of 4.95pts (+24.75% ROI), including...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 6.2pts (+44.3%) in fields of fewer than 10 runners
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 9.39pts (+85.3%) from females
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 7.43pts (+67.5%) since the start of 2019
  • 4/10 (40%) for 5.26pts (+52.6%) during January to May
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 1.5pts (+16.7%) with those returning from 6-20 days rest...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Liamba @ 9/2 BOG as was available from Coral, Ladbrokes & Unibet at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Geegeez Notches Best Betting Website Four-Timer

Oops, we did it again, as Britney Spears never quite sang. With the results just in from the 2020 Smart Betting Club Awards, I'm delighted to announce that geegeez.co.uk has won the Best Betting Website category... for the fourth year in a row.

Here's how the SBC Awards report broke the news

GOLD - GEEGEEZ RACING

For the 4th year running, racing website, GeeGeez.co.uk did the business by winning the coveted Gold ‘Best Betting Website’ Award with an impressive 33.47% of the vote – increasing their share by nearly 10% from last year.

Scooping more than a third of all votes is something we're immensely proud of, as is beating the likes of Oddschecker, ATR, Racing Post, Betting.Betfair, and so on.

We've never been able to compete with the massive budgets of those major media houses; but that has never stopped us punching above our weight. The ethos of geegeez.co.uk is simple: highest quality data-driven content presented in an easily consumable format.

In other words, we aim to deliver key punting messages in bite-sized snippets, whether that's through our Gold racecards and form tools, or in the insightful research-based editorial produced by the likes of Tony Keenan, Jon Shenton, Dave Renham, Chris Worrall and myself.

This is how the votes were distributed:

Of course, we'll never win an 'industry' award, because we're never nominated. We're not part of that club where members take it in turns to back slap each other. Nope, we rely on your votes - you know, the actual users of our site (ahem) - to express your feelings about the value you get. Thank you for validating the effort we put in to building the best product/site/service we can.

And we're not done yet.

Not by a long chalk.

Here are just a few of the things we have planned for 2020:

- Betfair Starting Price data in our reports and cards: so you can see profit and loss against exchange prices (with commission deducted)

- Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) and PRB2 metrics: so you can deploy this professional's barometer of performance

- Draw / Pace heat map underlayed within the pace map: so you can see how stall position and run style might impact today's field.

- Query Tool v2.0: a brand new, much more functional, system builder tool. Planned for the second half of 2020.

- Headgear and 'DSLR' (days since last run) reports

- 2nd time in a handicap and 2nd time for a new trainer (HC2 / TC2) reports

...and a bundle more besides.

As always, if you have any suggestions, please do let us know via the Contact form on site. That's how some of our best features - including the heat map one above - come to life.

*

On behalf of the entire team - developers, backroom staff, writers and myself - thank you so much for your ongoing support - it means the world to us to know that the hours we put in are appreciated by you, our highly valued readers and subscribers.

Matt

p.s. you can download a copy of the full report here.

p.p.s. I personally won a prize, too: the inaugural Best Betting Writer. That really is too kind. Indeed, I'm not even convinced I'm the best betting writer on geegeez.co.uk these days, something about which I'm delighted. Healthy competition at a high quality level is what I've always aspired to for readers of geegeez. It's a thrill to be a part of such a great editorial team.

Elsewhere in cyberspace, the likes of Kevin Blake and Lydia Hislop, as well as the excellent pair of Joseph Buchdahl and Paul Krishnamurty, are all writers well worth your time if you're as yet unfamiliar with them.

Stat of the Day, 11th February 2020

Monday's pick was...

4.10 Plumpton : Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 15/2 (Led until after 1st, chased leader until before 3 out, went 2nd again before next, kept on same pace, no chance with winner)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.20 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Our hand has been forced slightly again by the weather, but I think we've got a good chance with this 5 yr old Mare looking to snap a long losing run, now that she's rated (OR) 3lbs lower than her last win.

She showed signs of a return to form five days ago when finishing as a runner-up over course and distance of today's mark of 64 in a Class 5 contest and with a drop in class allied to having a 5lb claimer on her back here, she could go one better today turned back out quickly.

Stat-wise, I'm going to keep it fairly brief and simple, as I try to unravel why she is running again so quickly and the obvious thing is that her handlers feel she's ready to win after that seeming return to form and a closer analysis of the yard's MO backs this up as...

...trainer Michael Herrington is 17 from 70 (24.3% SR) for 22.1pts (+31.5% ROI) when backing all his UK handicappers since the start of 2016 turned back out within a fortnight of finishing in the first three home last time out, including of relevance today...

  • 15/44 (34.1%) for 24.2pts (+55.1%) at odds of Evens to 6/1
  • 14/53 (26.4%) for 22.8pts (+43.1%) on the A/W
  • 12/39 (30.8%) for 33.8pts (+86.6%) with 2-6 yr olds
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 16.1pts (+62%) at Class 6
  • 9/34 (26.5%) for 13.7pts (+40.4%) on Tapeta
  • 6/20 (30%) for 18.6pts (+93%) over trips of 7 to 9.5 furlongs
  • and 5/11 (45.5%) for 11.65pts (+105.9%) with female runners

...whilst his 2-6 yr olds sent off at Evens to 6/1 in Class 6 contests on Tapeta are 4/10 (40% SR) for 8.81pts (+88.1% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Lady Alavesa @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Unibet at 8.03am Tuesday will Hills offering slightly more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.20 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 12th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY THREE: Thursday 12th March 2020


13:30 Marsh Novices' Chase   2m 4f

2019 Winner: DEFI DU SEUIL 3/1 fav
Trainer – Philip Hobbs
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 7 of the 9 winners were Irish-trained
  • The last 9 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 9 winners
  • 7 of the last 9 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • 7 of the last 9 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
  • 8 of the last 9 past winners had run at the Festival before (4 had won)
  • 8 of the 9 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 7 of the last 9 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 9 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 8 of the last 9 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 9 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 9 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
  • 6 of the last 9 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 6 of last 9 renewals

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • Just two British-trained winners so far
  • The top-rated horse is just 1 from 9
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 4 winning favourites in 9 runnings (1 co)
  • Just 1 of the last 9 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
  • Just 1 winner had been off for more than 54 days


14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: SIRE DU BERLAIS 4/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Barry Geraghty

Pluses….

  • 8 of the last 10 winners started their careers in bumpers (6) or points (2)
  • Irish have won the last 4 runnings
  • 9 of the last 12 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
  • 10 of the last 19 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 9 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 9 of the last 13 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
  • The last 9 winners were rated between 138-148
  • 9 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 8 of the last 19 winners won their last race
  • 3 of the last 11 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 too
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott has won the last two runnings
  • Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 4 winners

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • Horses that have won 3+ times that season are just 1 from 10
  • Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
  • 5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
  • French-bred horses are currently on a run of 2-86
  • All horses rated 150+ since 2000 have failed to finish in the top 2
  • 2 winning favourites in last 14 years
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 18 (One third and two 2nds in the last 6 runnings)
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 3 from 41


14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

2019 Winner: FRODON (9/2)
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Bryony Frost

Pluses….

  • 21 of the 29 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • 13 of the last 15 had won at Cheltenham previously
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 26)
  • The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
  • 12 of the last 15 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 11 of the last 12 winners were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 15 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
  • 11 of last 15 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • 7 of the last 8 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time headgear (2 from 8)
  • 8 of the last 12 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Last 6 winners were French-bred

Negatives….

  • The Irish are 3 from 51 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • Avoid horses aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below
  • Just 4 of the last 12 won last time out
  • All winners ran 4 or less times that season
  • No winner was having their Festival debut

 

15:30 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle 3m


2019 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (11/8 fav)
Trainer – Emma Lavelle
Jockey – Aidan Coleman

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 15 won last time out
  • 11 of the last 19 winners were second season hurdlers
  • 27 of the last 30 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
  • 17 of the last 19 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 18 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 15 of the last 18 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 13 of the last 15 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race
  • 15 of the last 23 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (2 from 20)
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just three times since 1995
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have an overall poor record (1 from 16)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 67
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 55)

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

2019 Winner: SIRUH DU LAC (9/2)
Trainer – Nick Williams
Jockey – Lizzie Kelly

Pluses….

  • 27 of the last 32 winners were officially rated 141 or less
  • 10 of the last 11 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • 10 of the last 16 winners had won a race in Feb or March
  • Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 22 runnings
  • 16 of the last 19 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 20 of the last 28 winners had run at the Festival before (but 7 of last 9 were having Festival debut)
  • 19 of the last 20 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • 7 of the last 10 winners had 9 or less chase runs
  • 17 of the last 20 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1951
  • 2 winning favourites in the last 14 years
  • Only 3 of last 25 won with 11st+
  • Winners of a chase at Cheltenham before have an overall poor record, but the 2019 winner did defy this trend.
  • Only 2 of the last 16 winners hadn’t run that calendar year

16:50 Daylesford Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f


2019 Winner: EGLANTINE DU SEUIL 50/1
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Noel Fehily

  • A new race (Just four renewals)
  • Favourites have won 3 of the four runnings
  • 3 of the last 4 winners won last time out 3 of the 4 winners were French-bred
  • 3 of the 4 winners were unbeaten that season
  • Sullivan Bloodstock owners have won 2 of the 4 runnings (just 3 runners)
  • All four winners have been aged 5 years-old
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019
  • Owner Rich Ricci has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f


2019 Winner: ANY SECOND NOW (6/1)
Trainer – Ted Walsh
Jockey – Mr Derek O’Connor

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 9 of the last 12 winners failed to win earlier that season
  • 3 of the last 9 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
  • The last 8 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 7 of the last 10 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
  • 8 of the last 10 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
    8 of the last 11 winners ran in February
  • Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 18 of the last 20 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 8 of the last 9 winners wore headgear
  • 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 11 winners
  • Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
    Owner JP McManus often does well in the race

Negatives….

  • Just three Irish winners for 36 years (but have won 3 of the last 6)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 21
  • Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 0 from 59 since 2005
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 89 since 2009
  • Just 1 of the last 17 winners won last time out

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2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 11th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY TWO: Wednesday 11th March 2020

 

13:30 Ballymore Novices' Hurdle   2m 5f


2019 Winner: CITY ISLAND 8/1
Trainer –Martin Brassil
Jockey – Mark Walsh


Pluses….

  • 13 of the last 15 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • 9 of the last 11 winners came from the top two-rated on BHA ratings
  • 15 of the last 19 winners returned 17/2 or shorter
  • 19 of the last 25 winners won last time out
  • 24 of the last 25 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • The Irish have won 10 of the last 17 (5 of last 6)
  • Horses rated 150+ do well
  • The last 10 winners all won at least one bumper race
  • All of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • In the last 9 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 15 of the 27 top 3 places
  • 19 of the last 21 were NH bred
  • 13 of the last 21 had won a graded race before
  • Look for past Irish point-to-point winners (6 of the last 10 had won an Irish Point)
  • Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 7 placed in last 15 years

Negatives….

  • Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
  • Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
  • Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 55 (since 1988)
  • Only two of the last 34 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 17 Challow Hurdle winners have all been beaten
  • Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten. 0 from 30 in the last 14 years)


14:10 RSA Chase   3m ½f

2019 Winner: TOPOFTHEGAME 4/1
Trainer – Paul Nicholls
Jockey – Harry Cobden

Pluses….

  • 4 of the last 11 winners ran in the Flogas Chase (Leopardstown, 4th Feb) that season
  • The last 18 winners had run in a Graded Novice Chase
  • 23 of the last 25 winners had only one previous season over hurdles
  • Respect 7 year-olds – won 11 of the last 13 (16 of last 20)
  • 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were beaten on their chase debut
  • 7 of the last 12 winners had won a bumper before
  • 6 of the last 13 favourites won (50%)
  • Every winner since 1997 had their chase debut the previous year
  • Irish bred horses are 19 from the last 23
  • 8 of the last 13 winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
  • 6 of the last 11 winners were trained in Ireland
  • Trainers Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls often do well in the race
  • 22 of the last 27 were novice hurdling last season
  • 4 of the last 10 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
  • Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (51 of the last 53 winners had)
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year

Negatives….

  • No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
  • Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
  • Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
  • Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior
  • Just 2 of the last 20 winners had run less than 3 times over fences
  • The last 21 winners of the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Feltham, Kempton 26th Dec) have lost
  • Avoid unbeaten horses (only 2 of the last 20 winners)
  • Mares are currently 0-from-11 in the race
  • Horses in headgear are currently 0 from 29

14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle   2m 5f

2019 Winner: WILLIAM HENRY (28/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

 

Pluses….

  • 11 of the last 15 were 2nd season hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 9 of the last 11 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
  • 8 of the last 11 winners were rated in the 140’s
  • 7 of the last 10 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • 11 of the last 14 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 25 winners won earlier that season
  • Respect JP McManus-owned runners
  • Respect trainers Nicky Henderson & Gordon Elliott (5 wins in last 10 years)
  • 9 of the last 18 winners were FRENCH-BRED
  • 13 of the last 26 won last time out
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (5 of the last 11)
  • Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 11 winners)
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had run 32 days or longer ago (look for horses that have had a small break)
  • Trainer Gordon Elliott is 2 from 10
  • 5 year-olds do well from the small % that have run (win and place)

Negatives….

  • No winning favourite in the last 16 years
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run in 10+ hurdles races
  • Horses aged 10+ are just 3 from 305 to even place since 1999
  • Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record, although the 2019 winner was rated 151
  • Only 4 of the last 19 winners had raced at the Festival previously
  • Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins won the race in 2018 and had the second in 2019, but overall has a bad record – 35 runners – just two placed inside the top 2

 

15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase   2m

2019 Winner: ALTIOR 4/11 fav
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses….

  • 12 of the last 19 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
  • 4 of the last 7 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
  • 23 of the last 35 had won at the Festival before
  • Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 8 of the last 12 between them
  • Nicky Henderson has won 5 of the last 8
  • 14 of the last 18 winners won last time out
  • 16 of the last 17 winners had run that calendar year
  • 36 of the last 38 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
  • 15 of the last 20 winners returned 5/1 or shorter
  • 6 of the last 13 winners were French-bred
  • 11 of the last 17 winners were second season chasers
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season
  • 17 of the last 21 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 15 of the last 20 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chase
  • 6 of the last 10 Arkle winners (previous season) to run have won
  • Past champions do well – 13 horses have won the CC more than once

Negatives….

  • Only two winners priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 37 years
  • Just 1 winner in last 15 had run 4+ times that season
  • Horses that didn’t run in that calendar year are 1-from-30
  • Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
  • Just 1 of the last 18 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • 12 of the last 14 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
  • Be wary of horses older than 10 – just 2 winners since 1977
  • Only 3 winners aged 6 or younger in the last 46 years
  • Just one 11 year-old winner in the last 41 years


16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase   3m 7f

2019 Winner: TIGER ROLL 5/4 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Keith Donoghue

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 13 of the last 15 runnings
  • Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won the race 5 times)
  • 18 of the last 22 winners came from the top three in the betting
  • 8 of the last 15 ran in the December Cross Country race here
  • Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 16 between them)
  • 12 or the last 15 winners were aged 10 or younger
  • Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 10 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
  • Gordon Elliott has won the last 3 runnings
  • 3 of the last 5 winners were owned by the Gigginstown Stud House

Negatives….

  • Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
  • Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 97
  • Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
  • Trainer Willie Mullins is 0 from 12
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0 from 13


16:50 Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle   2m ½f

2019 Winner: BAND OF OUTLAWS7/2 fav
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – J J Slevin  

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 15 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
  • French bred horses have a good record
  • Respect Fillies
  • 7 of the last 9 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
  • 10 of the last 15 had run in the last 25 days
  • David Pipe, Paul Nicholls, Gordon Elliot and Alan King-trained horses often do well
  • 6 of the last 8 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
  • 10 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price
  • Respect horses wearing headgear
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were ALL rated between 124-134
  • 8 of the last 12 winners were British-trained
  • Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had won no more than once over hurdles

 

Negatives….

  • Just 1 recent winner had last raced in January or further back
  • Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 32 between them
  • Willie Mullins runners are 0 from 14 (just 1 placed in top 5 too)
  • Only 3 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
  • No winner had raced at Cheltenham before
  • Horses with 2+ wins over hurdles are 0 from the last 10 years
  • British-bred runners are currently 0-51

 

17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper   2m ½f

2019 Winner: ENVOI ALLEN 2/1 fav
Trainer – Gordon Elliott
Jockey – Jamie Codd

Pluses….

  • 25 of the last 27 had won last time out (all of last 16)
  • 20of the last 27 winners trained in Ireland
  • Respect Irish-trained runners (20 from 36)
  • 4 of the last 10 winners were won by UK-based trainers
  • 18 of the last 27 came from the top 6 in the betting
  • 20 of the last 27 were Irish-bred
  • 10 of the last 19 winners were second season horses
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 17 of the last 27 winners aged 5 years-old
  • 17 of the last 19 had their debut runs in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 17 had been beaten in a race before
  • 6 of the last 10 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
  • Respect Willie Mullins (9 winners) – also had first three in 2018, but is just 3 from last 35 runners
  • The Irish lead the British 21-7 in the race history
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
  • 9 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
  • Just 2 winners failed to win last time out
  • 4 year-olds are 1 from 60 since 2000 (Cue Card)
  • Gigginstown, Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often focus on the race

 

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Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.

1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.

2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for 69.5pts (+173.8%) within 100 miles drive of her base
  • and 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton

3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.95pts (+55%) at Class 4
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.5pts (+194.4%) during January & February

4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)

...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th February 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newbury : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3 (Raced keenly, made most until mistake and headed 14th, lost 2nd approaching next, weakened before 3 out, tailed off)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Plumpton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy (Soft in places) ground worth £4,094 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner on his penultimate start over these smaller obstacles at Fontwell, back in November and his name appeared in quite a few of the angles I consider before coming to a daily decision. In the interests of not boring you, I'll keep it brief and just suggest 4 reasons why he might go well here today.

1. Jockey David Bass is in good form right now, having won 3 of 12 (25% SR) for 8.9pts (+74.2% ROI) this month already.

2. Trainer Lawney Hill's record when her only runner of the day is a handicapper priced in the 2/1 to 8/1 range stands at 16 from 53 (30.2% SR) for 56.5pts (+106.6% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 16/40 (40%) for 69.5pts (+173.8%) within 100 miles drive of her base
  • and 5/16 (31.25%) for 12.1pts (+75.7%) here at Plumpton

3. In that same 2016-20 time frame, her NH handicappers racing on Soft or "worse" ground are 8 from 25 (32% SR) for 24.05pts (+96.2% ROI) when sent off no longer than 12/1, including...

  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 4.95pts (+55%) at Class 4
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.5pts (+194.4%) during January & February

4. Whilst her "late season" (ie Feb-April) handicappers are also 8 from 25 (32% ROI) since the start of 2016 with their 22.75pts profit equating to an ROI of some 91% with those sent off at 2/1 to 8/1 winning 6 of 12 (50%) for 31pts (+258.2%)

...which leaves us with...a 1pt win bet on Velvet Cognac @ 4/1 BOG as was available from 888Sport & Unibet at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Monday Musings: French Imports Galore

As Storm Ciara wipes out racing in the British Isles, I thought a leisurely mid-morning Sunday rather than a 4 a.m. Monday start would make for a nice change, writes Tony Stafford. It’s windy here too, and I keep thinking the front door’s about to blow in. I’ll let you know if it does.

A standing start and the inevitable criss-cross of half a dozen of Not Too Sleepy’s opponents, three from either side, in front of him was enough to decide the Hughie Morrison hurdler’s fate in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury. That left the way clear for a trio of five-year-old French imports to clean up in first, second and close fifth for the big-spending Nicholls (Johnny De La Haye, first and fifth) and Willie Mullins/ J P McManus teams. Pic d’Orhy, 33-1, won from the 13-2 favourite, Ciel De Neige, with the Nicholls second string Tamaroc Du Mathan a close fifth at 50-1.

Every February I know David Dickinson, the two-mile hurdles handicapper, steels himself for the identity of which of the Ditcheat (funny that the word ends as it does!) UK debutants is the one to fear in the Fred Winter (now Boodles) Juvenile handicap. Dave has to assess them on French form and by the time they come over there’s already plenty to go on, unlike with the domestic bunch.

For example, Waterproof, a winner second time for Ray Tooth at Fakenham, getting 127, might just squeeze in at the bottom on ratings, but needs a third run to qualify, hopefully in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock on Saturday before next Tuesday’s closing date.

Meanwhile the 2020 French Cheltenham Festival juvenile candidates will have racked up plenty of experience. Ciel De Neige ran in last year’s Boodles, finishing a creditable third of 21 on debut for Mullins after three seemingly undistinguished runs, 445, for Guy Cherel. They were enough to earn a figure of 132 and his position just over three lengths behind Band Of Outlaws seemed to guarantee imminent success. Amazingly after Saturday, he remains a maiden, beaten twice more in Ireland this winter before yesterday’s near miss.

The second of those “undistinguished” runs came on April 28th 2018 at Auteuil when he was fourth, eight and a half lengths behind the odds-on Pic D’Orhy, the Francois Nicolle trainee having already won on debut. More significantly, runner-up at three lengths on debut and seven lengths in this race was Goliath Du Berlais.

A non-winner in four hurdles, Goliath Du Berlais switched to fences following another run behind Pic D’Orhy in June and won seven of eight races before May last year since when he has disappeared from the circuit. The France Galop site not only lists form for all horses but also all entries and Goliath remains un-entered since May 19, the day after his last win.

The race I just referred to on June 9 2018 was won by Porto Pollo, who had been 13th, then pulled up and a faller in three runs on different provincial tracks. No wonder he started almost 13-1 for the seven-runner Grade 3 juvenile hurdle for which Pic D’Orhy was a 1-2 shot. But he prevailed by a length and a half. It is only when you see what was behind the pair that you realise the merit of the run, especially for the winner who incidentally has never replicated it since despite a couple more wins.

Third, a head back, was Beaumac De Huelle. That son of the great and recently-deceased Martaline only ran as a three-year-old and this was his sole defeat in six starts. He twice subsequently got the better of Pic D’Orhy in valuable races, first by a short neck in a €66k event in October then by a length and a quarter the following month, this time in a €101k contest. Second places in those two races earned a combined €80k for the son of Turgeon before his switch to Nicholls. Beaumac De Huelle has now joined the stallion team at Haras de Montaigu, in part replacing Martaline. Aliette and Guy Forien, the stud’s owners, also bred the Nicolas Clement-trained French Fifteen and they joined me on the winner’s podium after he won his Group 1 at Saint-Cloud for Ray.

The also-rans in that June 2018 race also bear repeating. Flumicino (fourth) has won three times; Goliath was fifth as I said earlier and then came two horses destined for Joseph O’Brien. Sixth home was the 29/1 shot Fakir D’Oudairies, now a 149-rated hurdler and 156 chaser for the young master, while Konitho, who trailed the field as a 56-1 shot that day, was good enough to beat 23 others by five lengths and more at Naas a year ago today in the colours of his sister Sarah. They soon were switched to the green and gold hoops.

So what of Pic D’Orhy since his departure from Nicolle? He started his UK career in the Triumph Hurdle, finishing tenth of 14 behind Pentland Hills. That race came almost four months after his French finale and you could excuse ring-rustiness. Less forgivable was his fall when returning to Auteuil after another break, on November 10 last year. Then on his only subsequent run before the Betfair, Pic D’Orhy, running over almost two and a half miles, pulled hard, raced round the outside and faded, finishing sixth more than 14 lengths behind Thomas Darby.

So now we can fast forward to Newbury, back to two miles and in a field where he could be covered up in midfield. Harry Cobden achieved this requirement comfortably and they came through to outdo Ceil De Neige, just as he had 22 months previously in Paris.

The number 33 is doubly significant for Pic D’Orhy. Not only was that his starting price, remarkable given his outstanding French juvenile form, but it was also the perhaps even more astonishing age at which his sire Turgeon, in his racing days winner of the Irish St Leger, died last year.

That means Pic D’Orhy was conceived when his sire was 28 years old. Turgeon’s amazing fertility can be judged by the fact that his 2015 crop including the Betfair Hurdle hero comprised 42 foals, his biggest of recent times. It only dropped below 30 with 20 in his penultimate crop of 2018, and in the year of his death, a final group of five remained as a legacy to his longevity.

I love the statistics in France Galop. They tell me that Turgeon, who still commanded a fee of €4k in his final year, 2018, had 853 foals. They have run in 6,901 races winning 748. Total earnings from that little group amount to more than €25 million. The way Pic D’Orhy won the Betfair Hurdle, he will probably go on and win the County Hurdle next month with plenty more victories to come.

**

Apologies to all who sail in her, but I’m afraid the geegeez.co.uk filly Coquelicot is only a footnote rather than the week’s top news. She looked pretty good at Huntingdon under a penalty in a bumper where they were strung out all along the straight. “Poppy” has the prestigious fillies’ bumper at Sandown as her target. One day she might win a Queen Alexandra on the Flat, or more lucratively emulate her older brother Heartbreak City by winning the Ebor and then improve on his record to win rather than be second in the Melbourne Cup! Matt, you have to dream in this game. There are enough nightmares to endure when you own horses.

-TS

SotD Update, 3rd to 8th February 2020

Last week was the proverbial Curate's egg : good in parts. Ilhabela Fact was a nice SP-beating winner and we'd a couple of other placers. The stats for the month will show that we're one winner shy of parity for both strike rate and profitability and we really needed another of the placers to get home.

As ever, it's a case of fine margins and whilst I'm getting at least 50% of the picks to make the frame, I'm not unduly worried about some losses.

A milestone awaits us this week, too. If all goes to plan, Wednesday's runner will be our 2500th! Not for a small feature that we weren't sure would work/take off!

Chris

Selections & Results : 03/02/20 to 08/02/20

03/02 : Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2
04/02 : Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4
05/02 : Jan Van Hoof @ 7/2 BOG 10th at 8/1
06/02 :Athollblair Boy @ 11/4 BOG4th at 2/1
07/02 : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4
08/02 : Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 10/3

03/02/20 to 08/02/20 :
1 winning bet from 6 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -2.25pts

February 2020 :
1 winner from 7 = 14.29% SR
P/L: -3.25pts
ROI = -46.43%

Overall:
662 winners from 2497 = 26.51% S.R
P/L: +530.37pts
ROI: +21.24%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is
here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are
now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 8th February 2020

Friday's pick was...

3.05 Southwell : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch on outside, headway into 2nd over 3f out, challenged 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, no extra towards finish) - the lack of a finish showed why he's now 0/19.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £8,058 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was quite well beaten back in fourth place last time out, four weeks ago, but in his defence that was a Grade 2 contest where he was unable to run his usual race from the front, as he had done when winning a Class 3 race at Plumpton two starts ago, under today's jockey Jonjo O'Neill (Jnr).

Back down at Class 3 and reunited with Jonjo, I'd expect him to be a different proposition today.

Jonjo is riding well of late and his 3 wins from 12 (25% SR) over the last week isn't a purple patch, as not only is he 13 from 53 (24.5%) over the past month, he;s also 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 24pts (+133.3% ROI) in handicaps here at Newbury over the last 12 months, including of relevance today...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 30pts (+250%) at odds shorter than 12/1
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+91.7%) over fences
  • 3/6 (50%) for 27.9pts (+465.4%) at 2m4½f to 3m
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.14pts (+202.8%) at Class 3

...whilst trainer Colin Tizzard's Newbury handicappers sent off at 12/1 and shorter since the start of 2016 are 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 44.4pts (+130.6% ROI) : all males. Now, despite 34 runners not being a huge number to work from, there are actually plenty of different successful/profitable angles to be derived, suggesting conditions might be in our pick's favour today, as of the 34 original qualifiers...

  • 12/25 (48%) for 53.4pts (+213.6%) after at least 3 weeks rest
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 41.5pts (+143.2%) over fences
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 48.1pts (+184.9%) at the ages of 6-10
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 47.6pts (+183.2%) in 4-12 runner contests
  • 9/17 (52.9%) for 34.3pts (+201.6%) in races worth £6-12k
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.4pts (+155.2%) at Class 3
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 24pts (+200%) at odds of 5/1 or shorter
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 25.6pts (+142.4%) from those either beaten by 10 lengths or more LTO or who didn't finish
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 13pts (+117.9%) with class droppers
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.67pts (+227.8%) on Good ground...

...and if you wanted a composite micro from the above (mindful of a dilution of numbers, of course), you could try 5-10 yr olds returning from 3+ weeks rest to run in a 4-12 runner chase worth £6-12k for 8 winners from 13 (61.5% SR), all at Class 3 and giving 30.4pts profit at an ROI of 233.8%, including...

  • 6/8 (75%) for 17.47pts (+218.3%) at 5/1 or shorter
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 23pts (+328.4%) from those defeated by 10L+ or DNF last time out
  • 4/4 (100%) for 15.67pts (+391.6%) on Good ground
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2,54pts (+63.5%) from class droppers...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!