Kempton and Chepstow TV Trends: 27th Dec 2019

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A huge day of National Hunt action on Friday 27th December as the ITV cameras head to Kempton for three races, while they are also at Chepstow to take in the Coral Welsh National.

We’ve got all the key trends and stats for all the LIVE races to help you whittle down the fields.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


1.55 – Ladbrokes Mares´ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m110y ITV

12/12 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
11/12 – Priced 17/2 or shorter
10/12 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/12 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
8/12 – Favourites that were placed in the top 3
8/12 – Won over 3m previously
6/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
6/12 – Ran at the track previously
5/12 – Winning favourites
4/12 – Aged 5 years-old
2/12 – Raced at Newbury last time out

 

2.30 – Ladbrokes Desert Orchid Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

10/12 – Aged 8 or younger
9/12 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
9/12 – Run at the track previously
9/12 – Won 4 (or more) times over fences
9/12 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/12 – Winning favourites
9/12 – Officially Rated 160+
7/12 – French bred
7/12 – Ran at Sandown last time out
4/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Trained by Alan King
2/12 - Ridden by Barry Geraghty
Altior (1/8 fav) won the race 12 months ago

 

3.05 – Ladbrokes ' Where The Nation Plays' Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV

12/12 – Ran in the last 7 weeks
11/12 – Priced between 7/2 and 12/1
11/12 – Aged 8 or younger
10/12 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
9/12 – Won between 2-3 (chase) before
7/12 – Favourites Unplaced
5/12 – Officially Rated between 122-129
4/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
4/12 – Ran at Kempton previously
4/12 – Won over 3m (or further) previously
3/12 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
3/12 – Winning favourites (joint)
2/12 – Trained by Nicky Henderson

Chepstow Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


2.50 – Coral Welsh Grand National (A Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

17/17 – Had won between 1-5 chase races before
17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Had won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/17 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Carried 10-8 or less in weight
11/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times before over fences
11/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Irish bred
8/17 – Had won over fences at Chepstow before
6/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – French bred
6/17 – Had run in the Welsh National before
4/17 – Ran at Chepstow last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 10/1
 

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Stat of the Day, 27th December 2019

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Boxing Day's pick was...

1.20 Kempton : Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG fell at 3/1 (Raced keenly, led until fell 10th)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.10 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, All Weather Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Simon Crisford's three-year-old handicap debutant was a winner on his most recent start.

Let's break that down:

Crisford with handicap debutants is 16 from 62, 14 further places (25.8%, A/E 1.15, IV 2.59) in the last two years

With handicap debutants at Wolverhampton, he is 4 from 9, three further places (44.44%, +14.63, A/E 2.09, IV 4.29)

His overall Wolver handicap record in the last five years is an impressive 14 from 45, 13 further places (31.11%, +26.08, A/E 1.3, IV 3.01)

With last time out winners, Crisford is 28 from 109 in the last two years (22 further places). That's 25.69% winners, +1.27, A/E 1.00, IV 1.34.

Classic Design is a son of Pivotal, whose progeny perform well on the all-weather:

In the last two years, they are 54 from 355 (78 further places), for +7.76 (A/E 1.01, IV 1.47), with three-year-olds winning at about 20%.

And, if you don't mind mashing these things together, Pivotal progeny aged three in Wolverhampton handicaps are 11 from 38 (5 further places, +34.78, A/E 1.68, IV 2.77)

Classic Design does have a tricky draw in stall 11, but he was a facile winner last time and has plenty statistically in his favour...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.15pm on Boxing Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2019

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Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Newcastle : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, close up on inside when fell 5 out)

Boxing Day's pick runs in the...

1.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding was a winner LTO, 8 days ago, triumphant on similarly soft ground at Ludlow in another Class 3 handicap chase under today's jockey, Charlie Deutsch.

He's by Walk In The Park, whose soft ground handicap chasers are 6 from 19 (31.6%) SR) for 26.4pts (+138.9% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • 6/15 (40%) for 30.4pts (+202.6%) at 2m1.5f to 3m2f
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 32.4pts (+249.1%) at 2/1 to 10/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.05pts (+72.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 8.05pts (+201.3%) when all three of the above are in play as they are today.

This horse hails from the in-form Venetia Williams yard, one that thrives at this time of year and does well in poorer conditions. In fact, Venetia's runners are 13 from 26 (50% SR) for 31.6pts (+121.6% ROI) since the morning of the 11th December, whilst more generally over the last five Decembers, her Class 2 to 4 handicappers are 41/160 (25.6% SR) for 101.9pts (+63.7% ROI), including...

  • 38/141 (27%) for 108.9pts (+77.3%) from male runners
  • 35/102 (34.3%) for 121.7pts (+119.3%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 34/120 (28.3%) for 103.9pts (+86.6%) in races worth £4k to £17k to the winner
  • 28/85 (32.9%) for 108.7pts (+127.9%) over 2m3f to 2m7.5f
  • 28/71 (39.4%) for 62.2pts (+87.6%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.4pts (+74.5%) on Soft ground
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 25.1pts (+41.9%) under Charlie Deutsch
  • and 16/73 (21.9%) for 38.9pts (+53.3%) at Class 3...

...whilst 4-7 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 over 2m3f to 2m7.5f chasing pots of £4 to 17k are 14/22 (63.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+203.6% ROI) and these include 8/13 (61.5%) for Charlie Deutsch, 7/13 (53.9%) at Class 3, 7/10 (70%) on soft ground and 3 from 4 (75%) with Charlie riding a Class 3 runner on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.50pm on Christmas Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Jon Shenton: Some Thoughts on Action vs Angle Bets

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I’ve been penning on these pages for well over a year now, writes Jon Shenton. As a novice who has never written anything for public consumption previously, it’s been very challenging. It’s also been highly enjoyable, and I’ve learnt plenty regarding racing, and basic grammar, along the way!

For regulars, you'll know the form: a bit of data, a chunk of blurb and perhaps a few nice angles (and some occasionally less nice ones) on the journey.

But this edition is a bit different, a little more reflective and general in nature, aiming to mull some of the challenges associated with a systematic betting approach. I very much hope that it’s not too self-indulgent [it's not. Ed.] and is of some interest to the data driven bettor.

 

Angles and Demons

My name is Jon Shenton and I have 679 angles / betting systems saved in my portfolio. Many aren’t active but most are.

I’ve been building, maintaining and running angles since April 2016. Prior to that, an annual trip to Gold Cup day was my only exposure to racing and resulted in nine straight years without a hint of trouble for the bookies. However, three winners at Cheltenham on a Friday in March, using detailed but on reflection misguided study, changed everything. My success that day was without doubt 100% attributable to good fortune rather than skill, but in my mind I was up and running.

From that moment, I spent seemingly every spare second researching, analysing and listening in order to develop a deeper understanding of racing.   I began betting only pennies (paper trading is not for me!) initially, but over time those pennies have turned into a few pounds as confidence levels and results have improved.

It all sounds perfect, doesn't it? Making a small amount of pocket money on the nags is something that never seemed to be a realistic proposition; having a leisure activity, that hands out a bit of spendo is a wonderful pursuit.

However, in recent times my enjoyment levels from racing, and betting on it, have been waning a little. I haven’t given it a huge amount of thought until now. But when I was challenged to write this article it became a catalyst to think about the bigger picture and to step back from the day to day noise. It was then that I realised that I haven’t really been plugged into the sport in the same way over the past few months.

Ultimately, I think it’s because the process of systematically wagering on racing through angles is exceptionally transactional in nature. Zooming out and evaluating from a distance it can feel - and had started to feel - in large part like a glorified admin function. And, frankly, there aren’t many people in the world who relish a good bit of relaxing admin in their own spare time.

A typical weekday starts in the evening when all the following day's qualifying bets are written down from the relevant website(s) and tools. Then, at 5.15am on the day of racing, the alarm delivers its familiar but always rude awakening. A quick shower, and with a cup of tea all bets are placed for the day. Then it’s out of the door bright and early to the day job.

Working full-time as I do, it’s nigh on impossible to keep across racing during working hours (deliberately avoided for obvious reasons hopefully) and I check the results when I get home. Then it’s the treat of recording all of the results on a tracking spreadsheet and repeating the process. Every single day.

Some days are quieter than others: in 2019 thus far there have been north of 3,200 angle-generated bets that have been struck. Not sure how I feel about that in the cold light of day - perhaps I need to be more selective - but it certainly illustrates the associated admin challenge.

The graph below shows the result of these type of wagers from that start point in 2016.

Predominantly, these numbers have been delivered through win only level stake betting (more on staking later): it’s non-emotive, low engagement wagering; and there is very little in the way of subjectivity or personal thought in the process. That process is rigid: identify a qualifier, write it down, place a bet, check the result and record the outcome.

The results are strong undoubtedly, with margin ordinarily 10-15% over the course of a year. At this point it should be noted that a portion of this return is attributable to best odds guaranteed. Transacting at early prices with BOG presents an element of 'natural value' with the relatively high volume of bets that are placed. The retreat of this offer to later in the day is creating a hurdle that in time will need to be overcome to maintain my current margin. Placing bets any later than 6am is not going to be possible due to other commitments, so I’m going to need to find a way to evolve or accept a lower rate of return.

Putting these thoughts to print has helped me to recognise that it’s the research, number crunching and theory testing that keeps the fire burning. Sure, the results have a certain satisfaction associated with them, but there is no doubt that the overall process is a little cold, clinical and mechanical.  The highly structured, highly disciplined, admin heavy approach works financially but my level of engagement with the sport is lacking.

 

Action Man

The alternative to stuffy system/angle betting is the good old emotional roller coaster of traditional wagering: taking stock of all the usual elements and variables of a given race and pinning your colours to the mast around one animal.

I am partial to a “normal” bet too, the general parlance used on geegeez.co.uk is “action” betting so we’ll stick with that terminology from here on in.

Angle/system betting is the rhythm section of the gambling universe, whereas action bets might be seen as the freewheeling, edgy lead guitarist.

Here is a graph illustrating the outcome of my guitar licks over the past 2-and-a-half years.

Not exactly Slash or Hendrix is it?

The graph follows a profile like a Next Big Thing that burns brightly for a time before hitting the skids and hurtling back into relative obscurity.

2019 has clearly been the year of excessive drink, substance abuse, creative differences and a spectacular fall from grace (metaphorically, of course) for my action bets. For context, there have been 645 of them in 2019 to date with 81 successes (counting an E/W collection as 0.2 of a win). Depressingly, I’m not entirely sure why this year has been so difficult, though I suspect there is an element of attempting to be too smart and punting beyond my means and capabilities. A little knowledge can be dangerous, especially when there is a natural attraction to against the crowd punting and (ostensibly) generous prices!

A result of the downturn has been an easing back on the volume of action bets. Roughly speaking, I’ve had less than half the action bets over the past three months that I would have had based on the previous two-year volume averages.

Easing off on the action seems a sensible approach. A brutal personal assessment (stats don’t lie?) is that my race reading ability is not in the same league as the cold data-driven angle approach; so why bother wasting time trying to pick winners when the angles do it better? There is certainly limited financial reason to play in action betting, based on the recent numbers, and locking money away in a cash ISA would make more sense commercially. But not even Derren Brown could convince me that a risk-free return in a tax-free saving account was more fun than poring through race cards, form, pace maps and whatever else.

Through trying to get under the skin of a race and piecing it together, it affords an opportunity to further learn and to develop a deeper understanding of the complexities involved in racing - and in betting on racing. It is sport after all, and an action bet can solidify the link to it. The spectacle and sense of occasion obviously stands on its own merit but evaluating a race closely (betting or not) creates a deeper and more vested interest in the outcome. Most importantly, it generates interest, excitement, and fun.

My life has revolved around sport since I was knee high to the proverbial green jumpy insect. However, my career has generally revolved around the use of data. Racing is perfectly positioned to straddle both. The rational side of me struggles with undue risk and losing money; the sporting and emotional side connects with the characters, animals and theatre of the event, and wants to be financially implicated.

But a recent conscious choice to withdraw from action betting had resulted in less time invested in the sport and, as a result, my previously voracious appetite to consume as much information and knowledge as possible has ebbed a little.

On introspection, then, I know that action betting must be here to stay: I just need to get better at it! It’s a wonderful sport, and to measure the enjoyment of it by financial return and transactions alone is the wrong way of looking at it. Being less uptight about action bets is key. And keeping them separate / treating them as fun, rather than angle-driven investments, is a clear and necessary way forward.

 

Action Learnings

The single biggest challenge with action betting is finding the capacity to do it properly. Finding time to study in any depth is difficult for me due to other commitments, like - you know - work and family! Undoubtedly, that’s where the toolkit on geegeez assists hugely in cutting through some of the noise.

What geegeez cannot do is support with the mental challenges associated with a ticking clock and wagering. It’s a personal thing but occasionally in the evening I’ll put on ATR or Racing TV and decide to have a quick check of the card just before the off. The intent is to evaluate the race at high level and see how that goes. Who’s going to lead? Who has course form? And so on...

However, it’s hard not to get attracted to a bet even in that very short window. Each to their own, but over the past couple of months I’ve refrained from these type of wagers as, for me, they invariably end in disappointment.

A similar limitation related to time, laziness or general apathy is that once pinpointing a “good thing” it can be devilishly difficult to walk away without a wagering commitment. It is the potential opportunity cost of reversing from a successful bet where the problem lies. A race comprises of many possible winners, certainly not just the one identified as having the course form, front-running potential, good draw or whatever edge seems to be apparent. Finding contenders isn’t the main challenge. No, my main challenge relates to understanding how the highlighted horse compares against the rest of the field and knowing when to step back rather than ploughing in regardless.

I’ve committed to at least evaluating the top four or five in the market before making an action bet now. It sounds basic and obvious, but part of the process of trying to improve is assessing why things aren’t working. My hope is that, by implementing this basic rule, there will be an upturn in action-based performance. We’ll see.

 

General angle betting thoughts

Getting back to angle betting, I have a few other observations to share.

Firstly, should all qualifiers get backed blindly or not? A lot of people use an angle as a starting point and then apply subjective judgement to that qualifier in determining whether to put the money down.

This does not work for me. I am an advocate of backing blind. Here's why: the angle works because it’s not subjective, and it can throw up contrarian winners to which the market is largely blind. By applying a judgement filter there is a danger of conforming to the market view and losing the angle's edge.

Below is a case study that burns, even today.

This race from 2017 is taken from my 'I know better' phase where I’d evaluate each qualifier and exclude some from a bet based on my opinion.

The qualifier in question is Guishan from a Mick Appleby sprint angle, number 3 on the card above.  This animal was discounted due to its sub-optimal draw in box 11 of 12.  Everyone knows a horse can’t win from that draw over a sprint trip at Chester, don’t they? Anyway, as I sat down to watch it with a nice cup of tea and a smug feeling of avoiding an inevitable loss, I was gripped by unfolding sense of horror. Guishan tacked over from a high draw, secured a reasonable position and swept by all-comers in the home straight to win with a degree of comfort. At 25/1. There are lots of other case studies with resemblance to this one but I'll spare you - and me! - the details.

Moving on, if there is a good reason to adapt an angle I will. For example, certain trainers may qualify at specific tracks or under certain conditions but they have a poor record with horses first or second time out. In such a situation, I would have no qualms adjusting or improving the angle by excluding these, because that decision would be evidence-based. But those subjective, opinion-based exclusions need to be consigned to the wheelie bin of history.

 

Staking Plan

Before closing, a line or two on staking. There are countless words available on this subject and no doubt the vast majority are better informed than what follows. However, I hope my relative inexperience can be of some reassurance to those of you who are still finding your way.

Quite frankly, in terms of staking, keeping it simple is the most important for me. I have researched and read a fair amount on optimising stakes but, in all honesty, I don’t understand a great deal of it! I certainly have no real idea how much value there is in each bet to adjust stakes accordingly, and I’d be guessing if applying something like the Kelly Criterion in the real world. I’ve tried measuring value by creating my own tissue prices but I’m a million miles away from making that work for me effectively.

Basically, the less I think about from a staking perspective the better. In general, level stakes keep it a thought free process for me. That said, there is some room for manoeuvre, depending on the category of bet and my track record with them. My current staking plan is as follows:

  • 2 points win – All-weather premium angle
  • 1.5-point win – All-weather standard angle
  • 1.5-point win – Flat turf premium angle
  • 1-point win – Flat turf standard angle
  • 1-point win – National Hunt angle
  • 1-point win / 0.5 points EW – Action bet

The only subjective part is what makes a premium or standard angle. That’s down to performance and chi score (one for another day) which is a statistical measure to indicate the likelihood of results being attributable to chance or not.

An example of a premium angle is the Derek Shaw, Chelmsford Class 4-7 at 11/1 or shorter contained within the below edition of punting angles. That is proven over a period in a live environment.

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/punting-angles-chelmsford-city-racecourse-part-1/

I think staking plans boil down to understanding ones strengths and weaknesses, and betting accordingly. If you do struggle or worry about staking, then in my experience a level stakes approach takes a lot of the noise and confusion away.

In fact, I think that’s what this article is predominantly about. Strengths, weaknesses, likes and dislikes. Writing it has certainly helped me to think about my betting - specifically, what I’m good at and what I have as development areas (corporate speak).

Even if the experiences I've shared in this article don’t help directly, taking a bit of time out to reflect on your betting approach, strategies and performance is a sensible and pragmatic thing to do occasionally. And no better moment than during this break.

I hope you enjoy the festivities, and here’s to an exciting, fun and profitable 2020 racing. It really is a special sport like no other.

- JS

SotD Update, 16th to 21st December 2019

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From a "picking the right horses" perspective, it wasn't a bad week really. A non-runner plus three placers and a well-positioned faller from our six picks isn't bad going at all. Sadly, Monday's 10/3 success was the only winner on the week, meaning another small overall loss.

So, as a result, December continues to be tough for horses, riders and punters alike and the upshot is that I'm going to need at least two, if not three winners from the last five picks of the year to make December profitable. It won't be easy, but it's not impossible!

The coming week is a short one, due to the Christmas break, leaving me with just three picks, so come back next Sunday to see if I've made any inroads into the winners I need!

Selections & Results : 16/12/19 to 21/12/19

16/12 : Out The Glen @ 10/3 WON at 3/1
17/12 : Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 10/3
18/12 : Hatcher @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 2/1
19/12 : Elzaam's Dream @ 9/2 3rd at 3/1
20/12 : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner
21/12 : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2

16/12/19 to 21/12/19 :
1 winning bet from 5 = 20.00% SR
P/L: -0.67pts

December 2019 :
3 winners from 17 = 17.65% SR
P/L: -4.84pts
ROI = -28.47%

2019 to date :
66 winners from 285 = 23.16% SR
P/L: +40.46pts
ROI = +14.20%

Overall:
656 winners from 2461 = 26.66% S.R
P/L: +536.87pts
ROI: +21.82%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Monday Musings: Hughie Not So Sleepy with Aspirations

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As I look out of my office window at 8 a.m. this Sunday morning with the pre-Christmas gloom and apparently endless belts of rain still sweeping across the land, it’s hard to believe that the days are getting longer again, writes Tony Stafford.

I’m writing this a day earlier than usual as nothing will be happening in the racing world before Boxing Day – four days of marking time, unless of course you are working in a racing yard.

Horses have to be fed, their boxes cleaned and their fitness regimes maintained, all for our delectation in the coming days, weeks and months. The new 2020 programme books, for the first time separated into Flat and Jumps have finally arrived but with conditions as they are – apparently Huntingdon had one of its periodic mini-floods this weekend – cancellations will be likely.
When I spoke to Hughie Morrison on Saturday morning he was full of gloom about the chances of Ascot’s going ahead. We were between inspections and, with Not So Sleepy due to contest the last race, that pessimism, admittedly a characteristic of the East Ilsley trainer, seemed justified.

Arriving at the foot of Ascot High Street at 11.45, at least the cars were still going up and in rather than down and out, signifying a positive outcome to the 11.30 ‘look’. That it was tempered with a “monitoring the situation race by race” could have had little mollifying effect on connections of the home-bred gelding.

Not So Sleepy has a deserved reputation for being “quirky” and when you consider that after his third career start, in the Dee Stakes at Chester – stopping point of Derby winners in the past – he had a flat-race rating of 107. In 35 subsequent starts on the flat, he has added only one more victory – on Oaks Day at Epsom, 2017 - but fourth of 30 in the Cesarewitch this October signalled some progress four and a half years after Chester.

In the meantime, he’d had three runs over hurdles, sandwiching a wide-margin all-the-way victory at Wincanton with hard-pulling 20-length defeats at Kempton and then on a return to the Somerset track. So when he turned up at Ascot last month in a handicap hurdle, necessitated by the abandonment of the November Handicap at flooded Doncaster, he was pretty much either a handicap snip on the correlation between flat (94) and jumps (122) ratings or a powder keg waiting to implode again.

He was allowed to set off in a clear lead and while a couple of his rivals eroded some of the advantage up the straight. Not So Sleepy never appeared likely to be caught.

I’d also spoken to Hughie before that race and the “handicap certainty, with a health warning” was our mutual assessment. Hughie didn’t have the extra bias of my high regard for Speed Company, an Ian Williams improver who had also been on schedule for the November Handicap. I’d caught him right at Chepstow; knew he’d go on the soft and he also had a reasonable jumps mark in relation to the flat. Two runners – trust me to go the wrong way.

Speed Company loitered at the back that day and was again disappointing last weekend at Doncaster, while Not So Sleepy returned to Ascot yesterday and was still on a detached bottom weight having been raised only 5lb for that previous win over course and distance. Many commentators believed he would struggle to get far ahead in a stronger and more highly-populated (13, or rather 16 with three ground defections) field.

Johnny Burke again got him off alertly and apparently settling better than hitherto, if understandably still a little novicey at some of the early obstacles – it was only his fifth hurdles start after all – he maintained a narrow advantage until the bend turning for home as the bunch tried to close.

It was soon evident though that nothing was going more comfortably and all the way up the straight the margin was extended, finally to a full nine lengths over Monsieur Lecoq at the line. He was in receipt of 23lb from the runner-up and no doubt the handicapper will be nowhere near as lenient next time. That eventuality is not worrying Morrison who has newly-ambitious plans for the seven-year-old.

Owner-breeder Lady Blyth had a major part in the decision to keep Not So Sleepy on the go over jumps and now the aim is for Champion Hurdle glory. Morrison went close with Marble Arch many years ago and Not So Sleepy is clearly capable of making steps towards that lofty ambition.

The ground was very testing – it caused the absence of Paisley Park, the one horse that many of the always large Ascot crowd had come to see. Yet Not So Sleepy’s winning time was less than three seconds slower than Mohaayed’s in the same race 12 months before. Mohaayed, back on the same mark as last year, was a long way back yesterday. All the other times were considerably slower – the best being the very smart Riders Onthe Storm, who comfortably beat On The Blind Side in the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase. He was seven seconds slower than Kildisart’s 2018 time.

Even the real possibility that racing might not go ahead couldn’t deter a seasonal family attendance at a track which seems to hit the right note at every meeting during the year. As I’ve said many times here before, from Royal Ascot down to their humblest fixture, Ascot is unique and the punters just love going there. I do too.

***

One of the most eagerly-awaited moments in my household is the trademark three loud bangs on the door that heralds the annual arrival of the M & S Christmas hamper from the Editor of this publication. If you work for him and he doesn’t send one to you then sorry if I’ve caused envy, but maybe his generosity has something of the “he’s a poor old sod that needs some Christmas cheer” about it.

I rushed to the door and sure enough it was a “delivery for Stafford”. The big box duly came in and as I went to reach for the document to sign, he said: “There’s another one!” I took that in too, and it was in an apparently-identical container. These hampers, there are several to choose from, come in a wicker basket and by now we have accumulated a few and they adorn the lounge and among other things, conveniently house the Christmas decorations so they are readily at hand at tree-time.

I later called the boss and said he’d better check whether he’d paid twice. He came back with: “No, only once. Must be an M & S error, fill your boots!”, or sentiments to that effect.

Later, I was talking to Wilf Storey who I know is also customarily on the Geegeez hamper rota – he trains for them - and asked whether his had arrived. He answered in the affirmative, but when quizzed whether they were the same, confessed that far from containing a cross-section of Christmas victuals, his was purely of a liquid nature, with some exotic concoctions included.

Just as I was terminating the conversation, Wilf asked, “By the way, Brenda <Mrs S> wants to know if you received a parcel from her?”. Mystery almost over and when I finally found where to look for any message from the sender, one was indeed from the boss and the other from “Wilf, Brenda, Stella and all at Grange Farm”.

Of course it was identical. So as Mr Coincidence, I was able to add yet another unlikely tale to my lengthy litany of “can you believe it’s?”. Two people of widely differing backgrounds and age groups in two places almost 300 miles apart, simultaneously decided on sending the same person an identical item from M & S’s lengthy Christmas gift list, and they arrived in the same delivery. You couldn’t write it!
I hope the Festive season is as good for you as for Lady Blyth, the Morrisons and for me and mine!

-TS

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

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Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Sat TV Trends: 21st Dec 2019

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It’s the last weekend before Christmas and it looks set to be another decent Saturday of jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Haydock and Ascot for six LIVE races.

So, to help you narrow down the fields and hopefully point you in the direction of a winner or two, here at GeeGeez we've got the big-race trends ahead of each race.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


1.50 – Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase Cl2 2m3f ITV4

Only 4 previous runnings
Trainers Paul Nicholls, Ian Williams, Robert Walford and Harry Fry were past winners
No winning favourite in 4 runnings
3 of the last 4 winners carried 10-10 or more
All winners returned between 6/1 and 10/1
All winners aged between 4-7 years-old
Mr Medic won the race in 2017


2.25 – Marsh Hurdle (Registered as The Long Walk Hurdle) (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f ITV4

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Winners that went onto compete in that season’s World Hurdle (6 won, 4 runners-up)
15/17 – Placed in the top three in their last race
14/17 – Favourites placed
14/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
12/17 – French-bred horse
12/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
12/17 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles previously
12/17 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
10/17 – Raced at Newbury last time out
10/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Trained by Nick Williams
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Barry Geraghty
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Richard Johnson
2/17 – Ridden by jockey Tom Scudamore
Paisley Park won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 3/1

Note:
2009 and 2010 runnings - Newbury
2005 running - Chepstow
2004  running -Windsor


3.00 – Dave Dawes Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

13/14 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
9/14 – Won over at least 3m (fences) previously
9/14 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
8/14 – Won by a French bred horse
8/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/14 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Raced at Ascot previously
7/14 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
7/14 – Favourites placed
6/14 – Won at least 5 times over fences before
5/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (3) or Ascot (2) last time out
5/14 – Aged 7 years-old
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/14 – Favourites (1 joint)
2/14 – Trained by Henry Daly
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (last 2 runnings)
2/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty (2 of the last 5)
Regal Encore (20/1) won the race in 2016
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 10/1
Note: The 2004 renewal was staged at Windsor

 

3.35 – Betfair Exchange Trophy Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Aged between 4-7 years-old
16/16 – Had won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
15/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
13/16 – Had raced within the last 2 months
11/16 – Carried 10-10 or more
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
9/16 – Officially rated between 127 and 136
9/16 – Priced 12/1 or bigger in the betting
7/16 – Won by a horse aged 5 years-old
7/16 – Won last time out
7/16 – Irish bred
5/16 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
4/16 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Winning favourites
Mohaayed won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 12/1

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


2.40 – Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

12/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/12 – Failed to win their last race
10/12 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
8/12 – Had raced at Haydock previously (hurdles or fences)
8/12 – Won over at least 3m before (hurdles or fences)
8/12 – Won between 2-3 times over fences previously
7/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or shorter
3/12 – Ridden by jockey Tom O’Brien
3/12 – French bred
3/12 – Went onto run in that season’s Aintree Grand National (all unplaced)
3/12 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/12 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
7 of the last 11 winners carried 11-0 or more
Daklondike won the race in 2018

 

3.15 – Sir Charles Napier Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m2f191y ITV

12/12 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
9/12 – Didn’t win last time out
9/12 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
8/12 – Had won 1-3 times over hurdles before
7/12 – Ran at either Newbury (2) or Haydock (5) last time out
7/12 – Had raced at Haydock before
6/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
5/12 – Finished 2nd or 3rd last time out
5/12 – Winning Favourites
4/12 – French bred
2/12 – Trained by Lucy Wadham
3 of the last 8 runnings were won by a claiming jockey
The average winning SP in the last 9 renewals is 4/1

 

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 20th December 2019

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Thursday's pick was...

6.00 Wolverhampton : Elzaam's Dream @ 9/2 3rd at 3/1 (Dwelt, behind, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, nearest finish : basically a slow start, picked up and ran on, but got going a bit too late!)

Friday's pick runs in the...

4.20 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6,  A/W Handicap for 3yo= over 7f on Fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is in really good nick right now, placed in each of her last three outings (all under today's jockey, 5lb claimer, Faye McManoman), including winning her last two starts, firstly over 6f on this track in early November and then again 18 days later/25 days ago over this 7f trip at Chelmsford.

It seems to have taken a while for the penny to drop with this filly, but she's now flying and conditions look ideal today, as from her overall 2 from 13 record, she is...

  • 2/10 on the A/W and 2/10 as a 3 yr old
  • 2/8 over 6/7 furlongs
  • 2/7 at Class 6, 2/7 after 1-4 weeks rest, 2/7 in fields of 12-14 runners and 2/7 going left handed
  • 2/5 under jockey Faye McManoman

...and when all eight of the above are aligned as they are today, she is 2 from 2 (100% SR) for 25.28pts (+1264% ROI) at Betfair SP.

Trainer Charles Smith's LTO winners are 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 26.43pts (+377.6% ROI) when sent off at 10/1 or shorter in handicaps over the last five years, including 3 from 5 (60%) for 28.43pts (+568.6%) in larger (ie 10-14 runners) fields.

Those LTO stats are clearly from a small sample size, because Charles is hardly prolific with just 14 winners from 271 (5.17% SR) for a loss of 70.87pts (-26.2% ROI) backed blindly over that same 5 yr period, so why/how is he still in business and why have I picked one of his horses?

Well, like most "run of the mill" (no disrespect intended) trainers, Charles has an area/niche where he does far better than his average would suggest and in Charles' case, it seems to be Class 5/6, A/W handicaps here at Southwell over 7-8 furlongs. Such runners win more than twice as often as Charles's average SR and produce a healthy profit from blind backing.

Numerically, we're talking 10 winners from 89 (11.24% SR), so that's 71.4% of all the yard's winners over the last 5 years from just 32.8% of the runners and backing each of them to a £10 stake would have netted £768.10 at an ROI of some 86.3%! A simple further refinement of this angle would be to just back those ridden by a jockey with a weight claim, which eradicates almost half of the 89 bets, but only removes 1 winner!

...as Charles Smith + C5/6 + Southwell A/W hcps + 7-8f + 3-7lb jockey claim = 9 from 45 (20% SR) for 112.85pts (+250.8% ROI) over the last 5 yrs at an A/E of some 2.65...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BetVictor & Betfred at 5.05pm on Thursday, although the latter are non-BOG until raceday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 4.20 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

The Top 40 Posts of 2019

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It's been another bumper year from a content perspective on geegeez.co.uk. In a year where we've favoured quality over quantity, there have been fewer articles published; instead, we have raised the class a notch preferring to deliver insightful, actionable output across a number of areas.

Below is a table containing my top 40 posts of 2019. It can be ordered by date, title, subject area, or author, and there is a keyword search box in case you're after something specific.

We'll be back in 2020 with more, much more, of the same or similar and, who knows, perhaps there will be a new name or two on the author list.

For now though, please do have a rummage through our 'best of 2019' - and I hope you (re-)discover something worth noting, as well as pass some of the excess free time the festive period bestows upon us.

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