Tag Archive for: Wolverhampton racecourse

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th March 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

4.15 Ayr : Emma Beag @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up mid-division, tracked leaders after 6th, challenged 3 out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance last, but no extra on flat) 

Monday's pick runs in the...

5.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nezar @ 7/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Apprentice Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

On a day where racing seems to have gone for quantity rather than quality, I'm fairly disinterested, but I do think this one is too big a price not to consider, even if he drifts further in the market!

He was only headed very late on and subsequently beaten by a short head at 10/1 last time out, when racing over today's 7f trip at Kempton 34 days ago, but comes here with the benefit of some rest and a drop in class. His overall record isn't brilliant, but isn't bad for a 9 yr old approaching the 70-race mark, having won 7 of 65 so far.

The resultant 10.77% strike rate is respectable, but does improve under conditions faced today ie...

  • 33.33% (6/18) at Class 5
  • 30.77% (4/13) here at Wolverhampton
  • 25% (2/8) over course and distance
  • 20.69% (6/29) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 16.28% (7/43) without headgear (0/22 with!)
  • and 11.54% (6/52) after a break of less than 5 weeks...

...whilst without headgear in 5-10 runner, Class 5 contests less than five weeks since he last ran, he is 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 16.2pts (+180% ROI) including 3 from 4 here at Wolverhampton and 2 from 3 over course and distance.

Also, since the start of 2016, his trainer, Dean Ivory's handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 7/4 to 12/1 when dropping down a class are 26 from 139 (18.7% SR) for 35.8pts (+25.8% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • 23/103 (22.3%) for 54.5pts (+52.9%) from males
  • 22/101 (21.8%) for 51.8pts (+51.2%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 19/77 (24.7%) for 51.3pts (+66.6%) at 16-60 days since last run
  • 18/92 (19.6%) for 40.7pts (+44.2%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 15/65 (23.1%) for 30.8pts (+47.4%) in fields of 9-11 runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.7pts (+110.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.63pts (+18.8%) in March

The bulk of the winners appear to fall in the first four categories listed and SotD wouldn't be SotD if I didn't attempt to put a composite angle together for you, would it?

So, here goes...males at 6f to 1m for £0-4k at 16-60 dslr = 13/29 (44.8% SR) for 66.3pts (+228.5% ROI), from which 8/16 (50%) in fields of 9-11 runners, 3/7 (42.9%) at Wolverhampton and 2/4 (50%) in fields of 9-11 at Wolves...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Nezar @ 7/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, Hills & Ladbrokes at 8.10am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Chelmsford : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Went right start, led, steadied halfway, quickened 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, shaken up inside final 2f, ran on but headed at post, beaten by a nose) : this sort of typifies my luck right now, but for bad luck, I'd have none!

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reeves @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

Not much to go at today in our price range, but I've found one that looks a big price considering his profile. He's 4 yr old gelding who admittedly needs to bounce back from an unusually below-par run last time out in his fifth run on the All-Weather.

He had won his previous four, so he's now 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 13.93pts (+278.7% ROI) away from the turf and this includes of note today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) as a non-favourite
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.76pts (+244%) at 14-28 days since last run
  • 3/3 (100%) for 10.76pts (+358.8%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.14pts (+238.1%) under jockey Sean Davis
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.52pts (+426%) in 6-runner contests
  • 1/2 (50%) for 2.79pts (+139.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over 6f
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over this course and distance

...whilst his trainer Robert Cowell is 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 18.5pts (+59.7% ROI) with horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 11/2 (our rough SotD range) in Wolverhampton A/W handicaps since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 17pts (+68%) with male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.22pts (+73.4%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 6.11pts (+61.1%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) in races worth more than £10k
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.4pts (+110%) at Class 2...

...whilst males in 6-9 runner contests at 11-20 dslr are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.68pts (+153.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 for 6.4pts at Class 2 with one of those Class 2 wins coming from Reeves here last December with Sean Davis in the saddle...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Reeves @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday, although Bet365 were offering half a point more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Chelmsford : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Went right start, led, steadied halfway, quickened 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, shaken up inside final 2f, ran on but headed at post, beaten by a nose) : this sort of typifies my luck right now, but for bad luck, I'd have none!

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reeves @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

Not much to go at today in our price range, but I've found one that looks a big price considering his profile. He's 4 yr old gelding who admittedly needs to bounce back from an unusually below-par run last time out in his fifth run on the All-Weather.

He had won his previous four, so he's now 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 13.93pts (+278.7% ROI) away from the turf and this includes of note today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) as a non-favourite
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.76pts (+244%) at 14-28 days since last run
  • 3/3 (100%) for 10.76pts (+358.8%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.14pts (+238.1%) under jockey Sean Davis
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.52pts (+426%) in 6-runner contests
  • 1/2 (50%) for 2.79pts (+139.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over 6f
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over this course and distance

...whilst his trainer Robert Cowell is 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 18.5pts (+59.7% ROI) with horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 11/2 (our rough SotD range) in Wolverhampton A/W handicaps since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 17pts (+68%) with male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.22pts (+73.4%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 6.11pts (+61.1%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) in races worth more than £10k
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.4pts (+110%) at Class 2...

...whilst males in 6-9 runner contests at 11-20 dslr are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.68pts (+153.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 for 6.4pts at Class 2 with one of those Class 2 wins coming from Reeves here last December with Sean Davis in the saddle...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Reeves @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday, although Bet365 were offering half a point more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2020

/by

Thursday's pick was...

4.50 Southwell : Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Led, headed over 2f out, no extra)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare broke a losing run when successful here at this track four weeks ago under today's jockey Barry McHugh who is 5 from 25 (20% SR) for 101.4pts (+405.6% ROI) in the last 30 days, including...

  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 103.4pts (+449.4%) in races worth £2.5-4k
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 107.4pts (+565.1%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 4/20 (20%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%) in handicaps
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 21.3pts (+151.9%) at odds of 2/1 to 10/1
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 108.9pts (+777.9%) on tapeta
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.8pts (+127.2%) at Class 6
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 23.8pts (+297.6%) on 7-9 yr olds
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 92.1pts (+1023.6%) on female runners

...and at £2.5-4k + 9-11 runners + hcps + 2/1 to 10/1 + Tapeta + Class 6 + 7-9 yr olds = 3/4 (75% SR) for 27.8pts (+695.1%)

That's over the past month, of course, but if we extend our date range, we see that Barry is 7 from 29 (24.1% SR) for 71pts (+244.8% ROI) here at Wolverhampton over the last six months, including...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 75.9pts (+344.9%) for prizes of less than £4,000
  • 5/20 (25%) for 67.1pts (+335.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 72.32pts (+723.2%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 11.05pts (+78.9%) at Evens to 8/1
  • 3/12 (25%) for 23.8pts (+198.1%) at Class 6
  • 3/12 (25%) for 10.95pts (+91.25%) on females
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 53.9pts (+1078%) over today's course and distance...

...and he now rides a mare, who herself is 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 46.3pts (+272.2% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton and these include of relevance/note today...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 47.3pts (+295.5%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 55.3pts (+691.3%) off a mark (OR) of 55-62
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 33.2pts (+302.1%) carrying 9st 4lbs to 9st 7lbs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 34.22pts (+342.2%) at Class 6
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 29.8pts (+270.7%) at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs
  • 3/10 (30%) for 32.98pts (+329.8%) at 16-36 days since last run
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 35pts (+437.3%) during January to March
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 23.1pts (+384.6%) in cheekpieces

...whilst at £0-4k + OR 55-62 + 9-04 to 9-07 + C6 + less than 30dslr, she is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 27.8pts (+693.9% ROI) on this track, including 2/3 at 8.5-9.5f, 2/2 in Jan/Feb, 1/2 in cheekpieces and also includes her last run/win...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.25am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I've a doctor's appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

2.40 Musselburgh : Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Led, driven and headed turning in, ridden before 3 out, one pace and no impression when left 3rd next, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out over 5f at Kempton nine days ago and now drops in class for the switch to Tapeta.

His trainer Phil McEntee is 18 from 84 (21.4% SR) for 43.2pts (+51.4% ROI) since the start of 2016 and he also has a very good record here at Wolverhampton, especially in handicaps at the sharper end of the market.

In fact, since the start of 2015, Phil's handicappers sent off in the 6/4 to 13/2 price range here are 13 from 44 (29.6% SR) for 31.4pts (+71.3% ROI), including...

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 35.4pts (+88.4%) from males
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 41.4pts (+121.8%) during January to May
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 35pts (+120.6%) after 4-15 days rest
  • and 10/35 (28.6%) for 24.2pts (+69%) at Class 6...

...whilst Class 6 males racing in January to April after just 4-15 days rest are 9/15 (60% SR) for 36.1pts (+240.3% ROI), including Pearl Spectre in the 5.30 race this evening...

...but my pick is...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Hills, Unibet & Spreadex at 8.35am Monday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

2.40 Musselburgh : Locker Room Talk @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/1 (Led, driven and headed turning in, ridden before 3 out, one pace and no impression when left 3rd next, plugged on)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 5f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old gelding was a winner last time out over 5f at Kempton nine days ago and now drops in class for the switch to Tapeta.

His trainer Phil McEntee is 18 from 84 (21.4% SR) for 43.2pts (+51.4% ROI) since the start of 2016 and he also has a very good record here at Wolverhampton, especially in handicaps at the sharper end of the market.

In fact, since the start of 2015, Phil's handicappers sent off in the 6/4 to 13/2 price range here are 13 from 44 (29.6% SR) for 31.4pts (+71.3% ROI), including...

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 35.4pts (+88.4%) from males
  • 13/34 (38.2%) for 41.4pts (+121.8%) during January to May
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 35pts (+120.6%) after 4-15 days rest
  • and 10/35 (28.6%) for 24.2pts (+69%) at Class 6...

...whilst Class 6 males racing in January to April after just 4-15 days rest are 9/15 (60% SR) for 36.1pts (+240.3% ROI), including Pearl Spectre in the 5.30 race this evening...

...but my pick is...a 1pt win bet on Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Hills, Unibet & Spreadex at 8.35am Monday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, effort entering final furlong, kept on one pace, beaten by a length and a half)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Antony Brittain seems to have his string ticking over nicely right now and has 4 winners from 13 (30.8% SR) all in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, including 2 from 6 (33.3%) here at Wolverhampton and he seeks to improve those stats with today's pick, who might well be 10 yrs old now, but is showing no signs of heading quietly towards retirement.

In fact, he has 2 wins and 3 places from his last seven starts, including a win in another Class 5 Tapeta handicap at Newcastle last time out, 6 days ago.

Jockey Harry Russell has been on board for both recent wins and he's in situ again today, as this horse seeks an 11th A/W handicap success, as he comes here with a record reading 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 61.4pts (+120.3% ROI) in such contests on Tapeta and including the following dozen profitable and relevant angles at play today...

  • 9/45 (20%) for 63.6pts (+141.2%) on Standard going
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 21.1pts (+81%) at odds of 5/2 to 8/1
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 9pts (+28.1%) since the start of 2018
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 54.7pts (+195.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 6/25 (24%) for 25.5pts (+102%) in a visor
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 44.7pts (+186.4%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 47.7pts (+207.4%) in Class 5 contests worth less than £3.5k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 48.7pts (+243.5%) over course and distance
  • 5/10 (50%) for 29.92pts (+299.2%) after less than 10 days rest
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.2pts (+134.8%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/8 (25%) for 36.1pts (+451.4%) after winning LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 10.6pts (+530%) under jockey Harry Russell...

...and over course and distance wearing at visor in a race worth less than £3.5k at odds of 5/2 to 8/1, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.6pts (+392% ROI) since the start of 2018...

...pointing me towards...a 1pt win bet on Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning, although Hills were offering half a point more (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, effort entering final furlong, kept on one pace, beaten by a length and a half)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Antony Brittain seems to have his string ticking over nicely right now and has 4 winners from 13 (30.8% SR) all in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, including 2 from 6 (33.3%) here at Wolverhampton and he seeks to improve those stats with today's pick, who might well be 10 yrs old now, but is showing no signs of heading quietly towards retirement.

In fact, he has 2 wins and 3 places from his last seven starts, including a win in another Class 5 Tapeta handicap at Newcastle last time out, 6 days ago.

Jockey Harry Russell has been on board for both recent wins and he's in situ again today, as this horse seeks an 11th A/W handicap success, as he comes here with a record reading 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 61.4pts (+120.3% ROI) in such contests on Tapeta and including the following dozen profitable and relevant angles at play today...

  • 9/45 (20%) for 63.6pts (+141.2%) on Standard going
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 21.1pts (+81%) at odds of 5/2 to 8/1
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 9pts (+28.1%) since the start of 2018
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 54.7pts (+195.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 6/25 (24%) for 25.5pts (+102%) in a visor
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 44.7pts (+186.4%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 47.7pts (+207.4%) in Class 5 contests worth less than £3.5k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 48.7pts (+243.5%) over course and distance
  • 5/10 (50%) for 29.92pts (+299.2%) after less than 10 days rest
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.2pts (+134.8%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/8 (25%) for 36.1pts (+451.4%) after winning LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 10.6pts (+530%) under jockey Harry Russell...

...and over course and distance wearing at visor in a race worth less than £3.5k at odds of 5/2 to 8/1, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.6pts (+392% ROI) since the start of 2018...

...pointing me towards...a 1pt win bet on Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning, although Hills were offering half a point more (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th January 2020

/by

Thursday's pick was...

3.20 Wetherby : Storm Control @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, effort 4 out, held when hampered next, soon weakened)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Klopp @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly is in good nick right now, with improved results reading 3221 in her last four contests, all under today's jockey Cameron Hardie and all on Tapeta. She's actually had 4 wins and 3 placed finishes from just 8 efforts at Class 6 on the A/W (all on tapeta) with that 50% strike rate yielding 22.85pts profit at a healthy ROI of 285.6% with Cameron riding 3 winners from 6.

Trainer Antony Brittain is also in generally good recent form too with 4 winners and 2 placers from his last dozen runners, of which jockey Cameron has 3 wins and a place from 10 as this trainer/jockey combo continues to relatively quietly churn out winners, as they tend to do at this time of year in this type of contest.

When I say time of year and type of contest, I'm specifically referring to this angle : 2017-20 / Jan- Mar / C4-6 / AW hcp / Brittain + Hardie = 19 from 117 (16.2% SR) for 84.8pts (+72.5% ROI), which under today's actual conditions produces...

  • 17/83 (20.5%) for 109.8pts (+132.3%) in 9-13 runner contests
  • 16/79 (20.3%) for 94.9pts (+120.1%) over 5f to 1m
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 69.5pts (+73.2%) on Tapeta
  • 14/64 (21.9%) for 76pts (+118.8%) with horses rested for less than 3 weeks
  • 11/56 (19.6%) for 57.9pts (+103.4%) at Class 6
  • 10/44 (22.7%) for 3.31pts (+7.51%) at 6/1 or shorter
  • 9/55 (16.4%) for 54.7pts (+99.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 9/43 (20.9%) for 27.6pts (+64.2%) in January

...whilst, from the above, Brittain + Hardie + 9-13 runners + Tapeta hcps + horses with less than 3 weeks rest = 8/23 (34.8% SR) for 70.8pts (+308% ROI), including 4/9 (44.4%) at 6/1 max, 4/11 (36.4%) at Wolves, 3/8 (37.5%) in Jan and 3/11 (27.3%) at C6...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Klopp @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 8.00am Friday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!