Tag Archive for: Tom Lacey

Destiny has Sidney Banks date at Huntingdon

Tom Lacey has nominated the Urban Logistics Reit Sidney Banks Memorial Novices’ Hurdle as the next port of call for Ginny’s Destiny as he looks to tee up a shot at the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival.

Having opened his hurdles account in impressive fashion at Warwick on his penultimate start, the son of Yeats was upped to Grade Two company when returning to the track for the Leamington Novices’ Hurdle last weekend.

Sent off 11-2, the seven-year-old ran a fine race to finish second, only giving way to Dan Skelton’s progressive winner Grey Dawning in the closing stages.

Although a juddering error two out did little to help his cause, Lacey believes testing ground was the main reason Ginny’s Destiny was unable to haul in the winner and is now eyeing up a run at Huntingdon on February 9, which could lead to an outing at the Cheltenham Festival a month later.

He said: “I think if the ground might have been a little bit better we might have had a different result, he just didn’t pick up on that really heavy ground.

“I think we’ll probably look at the Sidney Banks and then maybe the Coral Cup. A fast run two-mile-five Coral Cup round Cheltenham might suit him.

“He’s gone up 2lb and is 135 now. He would have got in Tea Clipper’s year (2021), but last year the lowest rated horse was 137, so I think you need to be north of 137 really to get in.”

Ginny's Destiny and connections after winning at Warwick in November
Ginny’s Destiny and connections after winning at Warwick in November (PA)

Lacey rates Ginny’s Destiny as a future chaser, but was also impressed by the way his charge rallied after his mistake at the second last in his recent outing.

“He can’t wait to jump a fence can he,” continued Lacey. “He hit the line strong and fought off the third horse having gone through the second last and flattened it. That would have stopped a lot of horses.

“I don’t see why he won’t get three miles in time, but that’s for further down the road.”

Stablemate Glory And Fortune will revert to hurdles at Newbury on February 11 as he bids to defend his Betfair Hurdle crown.

The eight-year-old struck at 20-1 in the race 12 months ago and having struggled over fences this term, returns to the smaller obstacles at the same price with the sponsors to do the double.

“The Betfair Hurdle is his target,” confirmed Lacey.

“I think we’re in danger of wasting a season if we continue over fences, so we’ll be going to the Betfair and then have a think about Cheltenham.

“It is going to be very hard for first-season novices to get into those sort of races now requiring four runs, so I think if we can get him back on track, I see no reason why he can’t be competitive.”

The Cottage Field Stables handler also provided details on the impending return of Lossiemouth, who hasn’t been seen since finishing fifth behind Stage Star in the 2021 Challow Hurdle.

Stan Sheppard riding Lossiemouth on their way to winning the Ballymore Winter Novices’ Hurdle during the Betfair Tingle Creek Festival at Sandown in 2021
Stan Sheppard riding Lossiemouth on their way to winning the Ballymore Winter Novices’ Hurdle during the Betfair Tingle Creek Festival at Sandown in 2021 (Steven Paston/PA)

Prior to that the eight-year-old had won three on the bounce over hurdles, including the Grade Two Winter Hurdle at Sandown – and with an intended race at Lingfield succumbing to the latest cold snap, the Esher track looks likely to be the venue for his reappearance.

“He’s been plagued with problems and there’s a massive team behind the scenes getting him right – farriers, physios, vets,” explained Lacey.

“He’s made of glass but on his day he’s a very good horse. He will probably go to Sandown on February 4 for £100,000 Virgin Bet Heroes Handicap Hurdle.”

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Southwell : Rock Sound @ 7/2 2nd at 6/4 (Pressed leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven and headed 2f out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on currently Good To Soft ground worth £9,384 to the winner...

Why?...

Just the sixth start for this 5 yr old gelding, but he hasn't been out of the first three home yet, including one win. He was third last time out at Aintree, having faded out of contention late on, but that's excusable as it was (a) his chase debut, but jumped well enough, (b) his comeback from 40 weeks off track and (c) over a trip 4.5 furlongs longer than today.

He should come on for trying the fences for a first time and also for having had a run to clear the pipes. Indeed, trainer Tom Lacey's NH handicappers seem to go well after a recent run, as since the start of 2017, those with just one prior run in the previous 90 days have gone on to win 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 37.6pts (+99% ROI) and whilst there are just 38 such runners, I don't think that their success is pure coincidence, when you consider that the following are applicable today...

  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 41.6pts (+122.4%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 27.15pts (+108.6%) at 6/4 to 15/2 odds
  • 9/25 (36%) for 21.6pts (+86.5%) from his only runner at that track that day
  • 9/25 (36%) for 20.55pts (+82.2%) at 21-45 dslr
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 45.4pts (+302.6%) after finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 7/13 (53.8%) for 43.8pts (+336.8%) on Good to Soft / Soft
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 24.7pts (+190.2%) dropping in trip
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 12.3pts (+82%) in November/December
  • 3/5 (60%) for 17.1pts (+342.5%) on Good to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.3pts (+146%) in December
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.82pts (+85.2%) were 3rd LTO
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%) at Class 3

Now, I'm not going to combine the above into a composite angle, as I fear it would dilute an already small sample size too much, but I do want to re-visit the third item on that list ie Tom Lacey's only runner at a track, because since the start of 2016, when sending just one out to a track, he is 54/177 (30.5% SR) for 119.7pts (+67.6% ROI) in handicaps contests.

He also sends just one chaser to Exeter today (Kateson in the 1.30), but that's a non-handicap contest, so with today's race in mind, those 177 solo travellers are...

  • 49/128 (38.3%) for 115.7pts (+90.4%) at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 43/136 (31.6%) for 102.8pts (+75.6%) from males
  • 27/72 (37.5%) for 88pts (+122.3%) from 5 yr olds
  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 54pts (+98.2%) in the final quarter of the year
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 49pts (+92.5%) at Class 3
  • 15/40 (37.5%) for 12.8pts (+32%) from chasers
  • and 9/25 (36%) for 22.05pts (+88.2%) in December...

...whilst 5 yr old males sent off at 5/4 to 8/1 from October to December inclusive are 11 from 17 (64.7% SR) for 32.2pts (+189.6% ROI) including 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 7.93pts (+99.1%) in December...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  as was offered by Bet365 (10/3) and a whole host of others at 3/1 (some BOG, most not until morning) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!