Tag Archive for: Stat of the day

Stat of the Day, 30th January 2020

/in /by

Wednesday's pick was...

6.45 Kempton : Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 3/1 (Chased leaders, led entering final 2f, ridden and headed over 1f out, lost 2nd inside final furlong, weakened soon after) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, Beginners Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding made the frame on his chase debut at Exeter on New Year's Day on similarly soft ground, albeit in a higher grade than today and over an inadequately short trip. Dropped in class and stepped up in trip, I expect him to build upon that first effort and go better here today.

In the beginners' races, it's quite often a case of how the horse fared over hurdles and possibly guessing whether he'll be handled to his liking over the bigger obstacles. To that end, he is arguably the best suited of today's 6 runners based on hurdling form and today's jockey does seem to get the best from him.

He has already won 6 of 15 (40% SR) races for profits of 18.14pts (+120.9% ROI) including the following under similar conditions to today...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 23.14pts (+231.4%) in fields of 6-13 runners
  • 6/9 (66.6%) for 24.14pts (+268.2%) at odds of Evens to 6/1
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 13.68pts (+114%) under jockey David Noonan
  • 4/8 (50%) for 10.64pts (+133%) on Soft ground
  • 3/6 (50%) for 5.71pts (+95.2%) after less than 30 days rest
  • 3/6 (50%) for 12.96pts (+144%) in non-handicap contests
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.5pts (+150%) at Class 4
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 11.11pts (+277.8%) over trips of 2m6f-3m...

...whilst from the above, he is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 19.68pts (+328% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 6/1 in fields of 6-13 runners with David Noonan on his back, including a perfect three from three for 8.18pts (+272.7% ROI) on Soft ground...

...convincing me to place...a 1pt win bet on Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 8.10am Thursday morning from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with that price becoming widely available shortly after. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

Stat of the Day, 29th January 2020

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

4.10 Newcastle : Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Held up and behind, switched right before not fluent 3 out, closed a little after 2 out, not fluent and still plenty to do last, ridden final 100 yards and finished with a flourish to lead close home) - I thought the jockey rode a superb race on debut.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was narrowly defeated by a short head last time out in another Class 4 handicap at Chelmsford 18 days ago. He was only headed in the final strides and gets to go off the same mark today, but importantly drops back in trip to what I feel is his optimum 7f distance. That mere drop in trip should be all it needs to get him back to winning ways and the improvements of an already excellent record on the A/W.

He has made the frame in 9 of 13 (69.2%) starts on the all-weather, winning 6 times (46.2% SR) with those wins yielding 36.7pts (+282.2% ROI) profit. Under today's conditions, those 13 races have produced the following...

  • 6 wins and 3 places from 10 after a break of 2-7 weeks
  • 6 wins, 2 places from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 11 on Polytrack
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 8 over the 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 wearing a tongue tie
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds shorter than 4/1
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 in Class 4 races worth over £6k
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Kempton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 under today's jockey PJ McDonald...

...whilst in his six races over 7f on Polytrack in fields of 8-11 runners after breaks of 2 to 7 weeks, Glenn Coco has made the frame 5 times (83.3%), winning 4 times (66.6% SR) for returns of 31.43pts at an ROI of 523.84%.

Trainer Stuart Williams is in good form right now with three winners and a placer from his four runners over the last week, including 2 from 2 here at Kempton and 1 from 1 with jockey PJ McDonald (also here at Kempton) and he has a good record when using today's jockey on the A/W winning 16 of 64 (25% SR) for 25.06pts (+39.2% ROI), including...

  • 15/50 (30%) for 31.5pts (+63%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 11/44 (25%) for 7.38pts (+16.8%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 12.9pts (+41.5%) in 5-11 runner races worth up to £8k
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 24.2pts (+86.4%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 28.8pts (+106.6%) over 6/7f
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 10.26pts (+93.3%) here at Kempton...

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.05am Wednesday morning from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with plenty of 10/3 offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2020

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 13/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders on outside, ridden to lead inside final furlong, soon hung right, headed and no extra close home) - pretty much typifying my luck right now!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Amateur Riders Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m6½f on Soft ground worth £3,619 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, firstly let's just say that the weather has forced my hand somewhat, removing the options I was considering at Lingfield for today's piece/pick. But we are committed to provide a pick each day as long as there's UK racing to pick from, so via a selection route less frequently worn by me for SotD, let me explain this pick...

He's a lightly raced (3 x bumpers, 3 x hurdles) 6 yr old gelding seemingly unsuited by the tightness of Fakenham when 4th of 10 on New Year's Day, but did go well on soft ground when a runner-up two starts ago in early December at Sedgefield, so I'd expect him to cope with the mud. He looks more of a stayer than "sprinter" if there's such a thing over obstacles, so a step up in trip could well be beneficial, as should the dropping of two classes to run here today.

So we know he's lightly raced and have made some reasonable assumptions about his suitability re: race conditions. We normally then look at trainer & jockey, but the yard is a small quiet one and the jockey appears to be making his debut. None of which is probably filling any of you with much hope, but all is not lost, as we've a way in via the sire Linda's Lad, a former Group 3 winner over middle distance on the Flat in his day, but also a "producer" of quite a few NH winners.

In fact, his offspring are 27 from 149 (18.1% SR) in NH contests since the start of 2018 with the resultant 118.9pts profit equating to some 79.8% of stakes invested and from these runners, there's actually a myriad of angles to consider. I'm "just" going to give you a baker's dozen of them, all relevant today and all profitable, of course!

So of the 27/149 headline stat...

  • 27/147 (18.4%) for 120.9pts (+82.2%) from males
  • 26/126 (20.6%) for 73.9pts (+58.7%) aged 5-8
  • 25/88 (28.4%) for 72pts (+81.8%) at odds shorter than 12/1
  • 24/106 (22.6%) for 151.8pts (+143.2%) over trips of 2m½f to 3m½f
  • 21/110 (19.1%) for 122.7pts (+111.6%) from November to April
  • 20/113 (17.7%) for 89.9pts (+79.5%) in the UK
  • 18/111 (16.2%) for 78.8pts (+71%) in races worth less than £8,000
  • 17/95 (17.9%) for 110.9pts (+116.7%) over hurdles
  • 17/85 (20%) for 96.7pts (+113.7%) going left handed
  • 14/76 (18.4%) for 35.1pts (+46.1%) in handicaps
  • 10/42 (23.8%) for 77.3pts (+184.1%) at 21-30 days since last run
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 40.4pts (+122.4%) off marks (OR) of 101-120
  • 7/28 (25%) for 4.86pts (+17.4%) on soft ground in the UK

...whilst 5-8 yr old males sent off shorter than 12/1 in UK hurdle races worth less than £8,000 over trips of 2m½f to 3m½f are 13 from 29 (44.8% SR) for 63pts (+217.25% ROI) and these include 5/11 (45.5%) off marks of 101-120, 5/9 (55.6%) after 21-30 dslr and 5/7 (71.4%) on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.10am Tuesday morning from Bet365, 888Sport & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, effort entering final furlong, kept on one pace, beaten by a length and a half)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Antony Brittain seems to have his string ticking over nicely right now and has 4 winners from 13 (30.8% SR) all in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, including 2 from 6 (33.3%) here at Wolverhampton and he seeks to improve those stats with today's pick, who might well be 10 yrs old now, but is showing no signs of heading quietly towards retirement.

In fact, he has 2 wins and 3 places from his last seven starts, including a win in another Class 5 Tapeta handicap at Newcastle last time out, 6 days ago.

Jockey Harry Russell has been on board for both recent wins and he's in situ again today, as this horse seeks an 11th A/W handicap success, as he comes here with a record reading 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 61.4pts (+120.3% ROI) in such contests on Tapeta and including the following dozen profitable and relevant angles at play today...

  • 9/45 (20%) for 63.6pts (+141.2%) on Standard going
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 21.1pts (+81%) at odds of 5/2 to 8/1
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 9pts (+28.1%) since the start of 2018
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 54.7pts (+195.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 6/25 (24%) for 25.5pts (+102%) in a visor
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 44.7pts (+186.4%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 47.7pts (+207.4%) in Class 5 contests worth less than £3.5k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 48.7pts (+243.5%) over course and distance
  • 5/10 (50%) for 29.92pts (+299.2%) after less than 10 days rest
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.2pts (+134.8%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/8 (25%) for 36.1pts (+451.4%) after winning LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 10.6pts (+530%) under jockey Harry Russell...

...and over course and distance wearing at visor in a race worth less than £3.5k at odds of 5/2 to 8/1, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.6pts (+392% ROI) since the start of 2018...

...pointing me towards...a 1pt win bet on Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning, although Hills were offering half a point more (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1 (Tracked leaders, effort entering final furlong, kept on one pace, beaten by a length and a half)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner...

Why?...

Trainer Antony Brittain seems to have his string ticking over nicely right now and has 4 winners from 13 (30.8% SR) all in A/W handicaps on Tapeta, including 2 from 6 (33.3%) here at Wolverhampton and he seeks to improve those stats with today's pick, who might well be 10 yrs old now, but is showing no signs of heading quietly towards retirement.

In fact, he has 2 wins and 3 places from his last seven starts, including a win in another Class 5 Tapeta handicap at Newcastle last time out, 6 days ago.

Jockey Harry Russell has been on board for both recent wins and he's in situ again today, as this horse seeks an 11th A/W handicap success, as he comes here with a record reading 10/51 (19.6% SR) for 61.4pts (+120.3% ROI) in such contests on Tapeta and including the following dozen profitable and relevant angles at play today...

  • 9/45 (20%) for 63.6pts (+141.2%) on Standard going
  • 7/26 (26.9%) for 21.1pts (+81%) at odds of 5/2 to 8/1
  • 6/32 (18.75%) for 9pts (+28.1%) since the start of 2018
  • 6/28 (21.4%) for 54.7pts (+195.4%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 6/25 (24%) for 25.5pts (+102%) in a visor
  • 5/24 (20.8%) for 44.7pts (+186.4%) over a 7f trip
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 47.7pts (+207.4%) in Class 5 contests worth less than £3.5k
  • 5/20 (25%) for 48.7pts (+243.5%) over course and distance
  • 5/10 (50%) for 29.92pts (+299.2%) after less than 10 days rest
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 16.2pts (+134.8%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/8 (25%) for 36.1pts (+451.4%) after winning LTO
  • 2/2 (100%) for 10.6pts (+530%) under jockey Harry Russell...

...and over course and distance wearing at visor in a race worth less than £3.5k at odds of 5/2 to 8/1, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 19.6pts (+392% ROI) since the start of 2018...

...pointing me towards...a 1pt win bet on Lucky Lodge @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday morning, although Hills were offering half a point more (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 20th to 25th January 2020

/in /by

A week that was equally frustrating and disappointing has somewhat put me on the back foot coming into the last five picks of the month.

We started January well enough, but now push has come to shove and I'm still three winners shy of making profit for the month. We've not been helped by the non-runner situation, but it is what it is and I really need a good week now.

Chris

Selections & Results : 20/01/19 to 25/01/20

20/01 : Maxed Out King @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1
21/01 : Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG non-runner
22/01 : Atalanta Queen @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 11/4
23/01 : Storm Control @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 11/4
24/01 : Klopp @ 7/2 BOG non-runner
25/01 : Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 7/1

20/01/19 to 25/01/20 :
0 winning bets from 4 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -4.00pts

January 2020 :
3 winners from 19 = 15.79% SR
P/L: -3.00pts
ROI = -15.79%

Overall:
659 winners from 2485 = 26.52% S.R
P/L: +528.87pts
ROI: +21.28%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2020

/in /by

Friday's pick was...

5.15 Wolverhampton : Klopp @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 3.30pm, Self Cert as Lame)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?...

There's no doubting that this 7yr old gelding is regarded as a "quirky, unreliable sort", but it's equally undeniable that he's (a) talented and (b) a lover of this track. And it's his record here allied to what looks a good price that made him of interest today.

Last seen a week ago, winning again here over course and distance at a higher grade under today's jockey Ben Curtis, he stayed on well to win by half a length and although he's up in weight by 2lbs, the drop down to Class 3 should help him attempt to improve an already excellent record on the Polytrack here at Lingfield.

That record currently stands at 8 wins from 20 (40% SR) for 76.8pts (+384% ROI), which is very impressive overall and even more if  you consider that under today's conditions, he is...

  • 7/14 (50%) for 77.42pts (+553% ROI) for trainer Neil King
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 28pts (+233.2%) at 8/1 or shorter
  • 6/10 (60%) for 24.61pts (+246.1%) in handicaps
  • 6/7 (85.7%) for 73.67pts (+1052.4%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 71.25pts (+791.7%) in fields of 7-9 runners
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 14.16pts (+157.4%) over this 1m4f course and distance
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 9.79pts (+122.4%) after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 67.56pts (+750.7%) within 25 days of his last run
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.05pts (+101.7%) at Class 3
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 10.43pts (+347.6%) in January...

...and when sent off at odds of 8/1 or shorter for Neil King in an A/W handicap worth less than £8,000 here at Lingfield, Petite Jack has won all five starts, generating 18.87pts profit for his followers at an ROI of some 377.4% and this fairly simplistic approach today...

...is the basis for...a 1pt win bet on Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th January 2020

/in /by

Thursday's pick was...

3.20 Wetherby : Storm Control @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, effort 4 out, held when hampered next, soon weakened)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.15 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Klopp @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old filly is in good nick right now, with improved results reading 3221 in her last four contests, all under today's jockey Cameron Hardie and all on Tapeta. She's actually had 4 wins and 3 placed finishes from just 8 efforts at Class 6 on the A/W (all on tapeta) with that 50% strike rate yielding 22.85pts profit at a healthy ROI of 285.6% with Cameron riding 3 winners from 6.

Trainer Antony Brittain is also in generally good recent form too with 4 winners and 2 placers from his last dozen runners, of which jockey Cameron has 3 wins and a place from 10 as this trainer/jockey combo continues to relatively quietly churn out winners, as they tend to do at this time of year in this type of contest.

When I say time of year and type of contest, I'm specifically referring to this angle : 2017-20 / Jan- Mar / C4-6 / AW hcp / Brittain + Hardie = 19 from 117 (16.2% SR) for 84.8pts (+72.5% ROI), which under today's actual conditions produces...

  • 17/83 (20.5%) for 109.8pts (+132.3%) in 9-13 runner contests
  • 16/79 (20.3%) for 94.9pts (+120.1%) over 5f to 1m
  • 15/95 (15.8%) for 69.5pts (+73.2%) on Tapeta
  • 14/64 (21.9%) for 76pts (+118.8%) with horses rested for less than 3 weeks
  • 11/56 (19.6%) for 57.9pts (+103.4%) at Class 6
  • 10/44 (22.7%) for 3.31pts (+7.51%) at 6/1 or shorter
  • 9/55 (16.4%) for 54.7pts (+99.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • and 9/43 (20.9%) for 27.6pts (+64.2%) in January

...whilst, from the above, Brittain + Hardie + 9-13 runners + Tapeta hcps + horses with less than 3 weeks rest = 8/23 (34.8% SR) for 70.8pts (+308% ROI), including 4/9 (44.4%) at 6/1 max, 4/11 (36.4%) at Wolves, 3/8 (37.5%) in Jan and 3/11 (27.3%) at C6...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Klopp @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & SkyBet at 8.00am Friday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2020

/in /by

Wednesday's pick was...

4.30 Kempton : Atalanta Queen @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (led, ridden well over 1f out, headed 1f out, well held when lost 2nd 100 yards out, weakened towards finish)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Storm Control @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,408 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding returns to action after a 40-day break, ahead of which he made the frame in three of his last four starts, winning twice and filling the runner-up berth on another occasion. He was a winner last time in another Class 3, soft ground Handicap Chase and now will seek to continue the recent good form of his stablemates...

...trained by Kerry Lee. It's fair to say that the yard has been quiet of late. Her first runners of the year appeared on 11th January and shes only had five out so far this year, but those runners do boast a 2 from 4 return over fences with both wins coming from 3 soft ground efforts.

More longer-term, though, Kerry's handicap chasers who won a handicap chase LTO are 10 from 36 (27.8% SR) for 27.1pts (+75.2% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2016 and they're really good figures for a "set, bet and forget" angle if you wanted one. I rarely blanket bet an angle and attempt to weed out some of the losers without disposing of too many winners, so based on the above stat, here's my top 10 filters...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 32.5pts (+112.2%) at Evens to 9/1
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 21.75pts (+80.5%) after 16-60 days off track
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 31.4pts (+142.7%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 29pts (+132%) from December to March
  • 8/20 (40%) for 28.75pts (+143.8%) with runners aged 7-10 yrs old
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 38pts (+223.6%) off a mark (OR) of 126-145
  • 6/20 (30%) for 11.1pts (+55.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m6f
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 19.5pts (+139.5%) in races worth £4-10k
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 32.6pts (+296.1%) at Class 3
  • and 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.6pts (+104%) on soft ground...

...whilst 7-10 yr olds sent off at Evens to 13/2 in 5-10 runner contests during October to March after 16-60 days off track are 5 from 5 (100% SR) for 26.42pts (+528.4% ROI), including 4 off marks of 126-145, 3 at 2m-2m6f, 3 in races worth less than £10k, 2 at Class 3 and 2 on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Storm Control @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.10am Thursday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2020

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

1.30 Exeter : Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 11.27am due to the going)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty low grade/quality stuff here today, where the same horses seem to take turns at beating each other. Despite that, our 5 yr old mare is one of the more consistent types at this level and has made the frame four times from her last six efforts, including one win and she was a runner-up when last seen a week ago, plus she was a winner the last time she ran in non-handicap company.

Her record on the A/W is better than most at this level with a 50% place strike rate after 3 wins (21.4% SR) and 4 places from 14, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 12 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 within four weeks of her last run
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 off a mark (OR) of 46-50
  • 3 wins from 8 in fields of 12 or more runners
  • and 2 wins, 3 places from 7 over a one mile trip...

...whilst in Class 6, 12-14 runner contests off 46-50 within four weeks of her last run, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 146.45pts (+2929% ROI) including 2/3 (66.6%) for 129.6pts (+4320%) over a mile. The P/L and ROI here are skewed by a 50/1 winner paying 130/1 at betfair SP, but the strike rates are still more than valid!

Her trainer Robyn Brisland is 4 from 16 (25% SR) over the last fortnight and the yard's horses seem to go well under today's jockey Kieran O'Neill, winning 3 of 10 in the last fortnight and 6 of 23 (26.1% SR) for 11.91pts (+51.8% ROI) so far this year, including...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 24.91pts (+249.1%) at odds of 6/4 to 10/1
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 10.07pts (+59.2%) at 5f to 1m
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.07pts (+93.3%) at Class 6
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 21.07pts (+351.1%) at 6/4 to 10/1 in Class 6 contests at 5f to 1m.

And with this mare turning out pretty soon after her recent runner-up finish LTO, it might be of interest to know that Robyn Brisland's runners are 16 from 69 (23.2% SR) for 62.3pts (+90.3%) within 4-10 days of their last run with All-Weather contests yielding 15 from 50 (30%) and 68.7pts (+137.4%) profit.

And from those 50 A/W runners quickly turned back out, Robyn is...

  • 10/25 (40%) for 70.9pts (+283.6%) with females
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 36.1pts (+150.3%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 53.4pts (+197.9%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.2pts (+154.2%) lost by a neck to 3 lengths LTO
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 39pts (+144.4%) over 5f to 1m
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 39.5pts (+263%) from females on Polytrack
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.43pts (+53%) in January
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 17pts (+188.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.41pts (+45.8%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!