Tag Archive for: Stat of the day

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2020

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Reeves @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led early, tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 2nd place towards finish) : three runners-up on the bounce for us now!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?...

Similar to yesterday, in that I've little of substance to choose from at the right price, but the shortness of the fav here means we'll get a decent price about this 7 yr old gelding, who has finished 312 in his last three outings, having only gone down by two lengths over course and distance in a stronger/higher class race last time out 25 days ago after winning here again over C&D two starts ago.

He's by Sir Percy, whose offspring are 11 from 50 (22% SR) for 12.78pts (+25.6% ROI) over trips of 3m to 3m5f since the start of 2017, including of relevance here...

  • 10/40 (25%) for 19.27pts (+48.2%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/39 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+40.8%) over hurdles
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 15.53pts (+119.5%) during the first quarter of the year
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 2.74pts (+22.8%) on soft or heavy ground

He's also running out of a yard that knows how to train stayers, as trainer Sam England's record at 3m1½f to 3m3½f currently stands at 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.1% ROI) and these include of note today...

  • 10/28 (35.7%) for 63.8pts (+227.8%) from 6-10 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 66.8pts (+267.2%) ridden by Jonathan England
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 52.1pys (+236.6%) from December to April
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 67.7pts (+322.4%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.6pts (+156.5%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 54.1pts (+284.5%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 7/14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+159.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.1pts (+193.3%) over 3m1½f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 45.5pts (+350.2%) at Class 4
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.4pts (+191.3%) here at Catterick, all over today's course and distance...

...whilst Sam + Jonathan + 3m1½f to 3m3½f + 6-10 yr olds + Dec-April + 11/30 dslr + 7/1 max odds = 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for 29.5pts (+268.3%) and these runners include 6/10 after a top 3 finish LTO, 4/6 at this trip, 4/5 here at Catterick (all over C&D) and 1/1 at Class 4. Those 11 also include Ask Paddy who is currently (8.50am) priced at 11/4 BOG to win the previous 4.15 race on this card...  

...but my selection is...a 1pt win bet on Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday,but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Chelmsford : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Went right start, led, steadied halfway, quickened 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, shaken up inside final 2f, ran on but headed at post, beaten by a nose) : this sort of typifies my luck right now, but for bad luck, I'd have none!

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reeves @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

Not much to go at today in our price range, but I've found one that looks a big price considering his profile. He's 4 yr old gelding who admittedly needs to bounce back from an unusually below-par run last time out in his fifth run on the All-Weather.

He had won his previous four, so he's now 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 13.93pts (+278.7% ROI) away from the turf and this includes of note today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) as a non-favourite
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.76pts (+244%) at 14-28 days since last run
  • 3/3 (100%) for 10.76pts (+358.8%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.14pts (+238.1%) under jockey Sean Davis
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.52pts (+426%) in 6-runner contests
  • 1/2 (50%) for 2.79pts (+139.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over 6f
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over this course and distance

...whilst his trainer Robert Cowell is 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 18.5pts (+59.7% ROI) with horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 11/2 (our rough SotD range) in Wolverhampton A/W handicaps since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 17pts (+68%) with male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.22pts (+73.4%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 6.11pts (+61.1%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) in races worth more than £10k
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.4pts (+110%) at Class 2...

...whilst males in 6-9 runner contests at 11-20 dslr are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.68pts (+153.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 for 6.4pts at Class 2 with one of those Class 2 wins coming from Reeves here last December with Sean Davis in the saddle...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Reeves @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday, although Bet365 were offering half a point more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Chelmsford : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Went right start, led, steadied halfway, quickened 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, shaken up inside final 2f, ran on but headed at post, beaten by a nose) : this sort of typifies my luck right now, but for bad luck, I'd have none!

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reeves @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

Not much to go at today in our price range, but I've found one that looks a big price considering his profile. He's 4 yr old gelding who admittedly needs to bounce back from an unusually below-par run last time out in his fifth run on the All-Weather.

He had won his previous four, so he's now 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 13.93pts (+278.7% ROI) away from the turf and this includes of note today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) as a non-favourite
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.76pts (+244%) at 14-28 days since last run
  • 3/3 (100%) for 10.76pts (+358.8%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.14pts (+238.1%) under jockey Sean Davis
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.52pts (+426%) in 6-runner contests
  • 1/2 (50%) for 2.79pts (+139.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over 6f
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over this course and distance

...whilst his trainer Robert Cowell is 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 18.5pts (+59.7% ROI) with horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 11/2 (our rough SotD range) in Wolverhampton A/W handicaps since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 17pts (+68%) with male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.22pts (+73.4%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 6.11pts (+61.1%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) in races worth more than £10k
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.4pts (+110%) at Class 2...

...whilst males in 6-9 runner contests at 11-20 dslr are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.68pts (+153.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 for 6.4pts at Class 2 with one of those Class 2 wins coming from Reeves here last December with Sean Davis in the saddle...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Reeves @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday, although Bet365 were offering half a point more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 17th to 22nd February 2020

/in /by

Well, I'm certainly in a hole right now after a second successive week without a winner and the pressure's really on now to try and salvage some pride/money from this wretched month.

Is there anything positive to draw from this week's performance? Actually, yes, I think there is after seeing both Friday's and particular Saturday's runners do all bar win, both getting collared late on and finishing as runners-up at 6/1 and 3/1 respectively : results that would have put a whole new complexion on February's numbers.

We don't, however, work on ifs, buts, coulds, shoulds and woulds, nor do the banks take those as payments so a further improvement is needed and trust me, I'm working on it. I'm just glad I'm not a football manager right now, folk would be calling for my head!

Chris

Selections & Results : 17/02/20 to 22/02/20

17/02 : Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 6/1
18/02 : Social City @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 5/2
19/02 : My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 5/2
20/02 : Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1
21/02 : Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 6/1
22/02 : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1

17/02/20 to 22/02/20 :
0 winning bet from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

February 2020 :
1 winner from 19 = 5.26% SR
P/L: -15.25pts
ROI = -80.26%

2020 to date :
6 winners from 43 = 13.95% SR
P/L: -13.50pts
ROI = -31.399%

Overall:
662 winners from 2509 = 26.39% S.R
P/L: +518.37pts
ROI: +20.66%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
The full story from 2017 can be read here.
Whilst the yearly review for 2018 is right here

And here is the overview for 2019

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 22nd February 2020

/in /by

Friday's pick was...

5.45 Wolverhampton : Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 6/1 (Chased leaders, led over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £12,291 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 7 yr old gelding who has 4 wins from 14 on the A/W so far, including...

  • 4/12 at 9.5-10 furlongs
  • 4/10 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3/11 on Polytrack
  • 3/8 at Class 2
  • 1/2 here at Chelmsford
  • 1/2 over course and distance

He is trained by William Haggas, about whom there are quite a few relevant angles at play today. If I can get this to work (others here at Geegeez are far better than I at putting graphics up), then here are just three that will help us today...

1. For 82 winners from 229 runners (35.8% SR) and 50.7pts profit at an ROI of 22.2%, including 23/49 (46.9%) for 44.1pts (+89.9%) at Class 1/2...

2. Whilst he is 26 from 91 (28.6% SR) for 11.1pts (+12.2% ROI) under the following conditions, including 21/59 (35.6%) for 31.3pts (+53.1%) on the All-Weather...

3. And for 15 winners from 28 (53.6% SR) and 35.7pts profit at an ROI of 127.4%, we have...

...all of which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2020

/in /by

Thursday's pick was...

4.50 Southwell : Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 3/1 (Led, headed over 2f out, no extra)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m1½f on tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old mare broke a losing run when successful here at this track four weeks ago under today's jockey Barry McHugh who is 5 from 25 (20% SR) for 101.4pts (+405.6% ROI) in the last 30 days, including...

  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 103.4pts (+449.4%) in races worth £2.5-4k
  • 5/19 (26.3%) for 107.4pts (+565.1%) in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 4/20 (20%) for 15.3pts (+76.5%) in handicaps
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 21.3pts (+151.9%) at odds of 2/1 to 10/1
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 108.9pts (+777.9%) on tapeta
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 17.8pts (+127.2%) at Class 6
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 23.8pts (+297.6%) on 7-9 yr olds
  • 2/9 (22.2%) for 92.1pts (+1023.6%) on female runners

...and at £2.5-4k + 9-11 runners + hcps + 2/1 to 10/1 + Tapeta + Class 6 + 7-9 yr olds = 3/4 (75% SR) for 27.8pts (+695.1%)

That's over the past month, of course, but if we extend our date range, we see that Barry is 7 from 29 (24.1% SR) for 71pts (+244.8% ROI) here at Wolverhampton over the last six months, including...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 75.9pts (+344.9%) for prizes of less than £4,000
  • 5/20 (25%) for 67.1pts (+335.5%) in handicaps
  • 5/10 (50%) for 72.32pts (+723.2%) in fields of 8-10 runners
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 11.05pts (+78.9%) at Evens to 8/1
  • 3/12 (25%) for 23.8pts (+198.1%) at Class 6
  • 3/12 (25%) for 10.95pts (+91.25%) on females
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 53.9pts (+1078%) over today's course and distance...

...and he now rides a mare, who herself is 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 46.3pts (+272.2% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton and these include of relevance/note today...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 47.3pts (+295.5%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 55.3pts (+691.3%) off a mark (OR) of 55-62
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 33.2pts (+302.1%) carrying 9st 4lbs to 9st 7lbs
  • 4/10 (40%) for 34.22pts (+342.2%) at Class 6
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 29.8pts (+270.7%) at 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs
  • 3/10 (30%) for 32.98pts (+329.8%) at 16-36 days since last run
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 35pts (+437.3%) during January to March
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 23.1pts (+384.6%) in cheekpieces

...whilst at £0-4k + OR 55-62 + 9-04 to 9-07 + C6 + less than 30dslr, she is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 27.8pts (+693.9% ROI) on this track, including 2/3 at 8.5-9.5f, 2/2 in Jan/Feb, 1/2 in cheekpieces and also includes her last run/win...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bell Heather @ 5/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.25am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I've a doctor's appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

Stat of the Day, 20th February 2020

/in /by

Wednesday's pick was...

3.55 Doncaster : My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Raced wide, held up, not fluent 1st, headway 12th, ridden and weakened after 3 out)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.50 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Sorry for the delay this morning. We'd a storm and subsequent power cut overnight here. I'd already gone through the cards last night before bed, so it was just a case of checking prices this morning, so rest assured, I've put the normal amount of work into finding today's pick, but as we're against the clock, I'll keep the write-up brief...

...about a 4 yr old filly whose last two runs were a runner-up finish here on the A/W over 2m 0.5f ahead of a win LTO over hurdles in a Class 4, 2m contest at Ludlow. This might suggest she's a better hurdler than on the A/W, where she runs at Class 6, but we'll see!

Her yard is going well enough of late, Gay Kelleway's A/W runners are 5/21 (23.8% SR) for 41.4pts (+197.3% ROI) over the past month, including...

  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 11.43pts (+103.9%) here at Southwell
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 19.94pts (+221.5%) at Class 6
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 8.74pts (+218.4%) at Class 6 here at Southwell...

...which is fairly unsurprising to me, as her record here at this venue since 2016 stands at 16 winners from 91 (17.6% SR) for 44.05pts (+48.4% ROI) backed blindly and here's how she got those 16 winners based on today's conditions...

  • 14 came from 70 (20%) in December-March for 57.55pts (+82.2%)
  • 13 came from 70 (18.6%) over 6f to 1m4f for 52pts (+74.3%)
  • 13 came from 67 (19.4%) at Class 5/6 for 22.9pts (+33.9%)
  • 12 came from 62 (19.4%) in races worth less than £4,000 for 25pts (+40.4%)
  • 6 came from 14 (42.9%) sent off at Evens to 10/3 for 8.02pts (+57.3%)
  • 5 came from 18 (27.8%) 8-runner contests for 39.57pts (+219.9%)
  • and 3 came from 11 (27.3%) races over this 1m4f C&D for 25.05pts (+227.7%)

...whilst at Class 5/6 over 6f to 1m4f during December to March for prizes of less than £4k, those 91 original Gay Kelleway Southwell runners are 9 from 37 (24.3% SR) for 35.05pts (+94.7% ROI) including 2 from 3 (66.6%) for 4.23pts (+140.8%) over this 1m4f C&D...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Bolt N Brown @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 9.30am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.50 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I've a doctor's appointment at 8.00am Friday, so the selection will appear when I get back.

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2020

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

8.00 Southwell : Social City @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Mid-division, outpaced over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £18,768 to the winner...

Why?...

This 10 yr old mare is a lightly-raced veteran if that's not an oxymoron, having only raced 12 times (inc 4 wins) so far, including a 3 from 6 record over fences where she's hardly over-exposed. She won a similar (albeit open age) Class 2 handicap chase here over course and distance on her last outing just over two months when once again partnered by today's jockey, Brian Hughes.

She has 4 wins from 12 to date and here's how, under today's conditions, she got those wins...

  • all four came from 9 races at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 3 from 7 in handicaps
  • 3 from 4 at 3m-3m1f
  • 2 from 5 on soft
  • 2 from 5 under Brian Hughes
  • 2 from 2 at 3m
  • 1 from 1 at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 here at Doncaster (over C&D LTO at C2, of course)

Her jockey Brian Hughes is 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 18.1pts (+60.2% ROI) at this venue over jumps since the start of last year.

And she's trainer Nicky Richards' only runner of the day today and such solo travellers are 35 from 119 (29.4% SR) for 49.1pts (+41.3% ROI) since 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 34/110 (30.9%) for 49.8pts (+45.3%) for prizes up to £21k
  • 20/49 (40.8%) for 54.4pts (+111.1%) during Dec-March
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 30.05pts (+71.6%) on Soft/heavy
  • 14/50 928%) for 21.4pts (+42.8%) over fences
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 25pts (+166.6%) over 3 miles
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 4.4pts (+21.1%) from LTO winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 19.5pts (+130%) at Class 2
  • 4/10 (40%) for 11.87pts (+118.7%) from 10 yr olds
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 19.5pts (+324.5%) at Doncaster
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.36pts (+245.3%) in races for 10yo+ horses

...whilst in chases worth £4-21k on soft/heavy during Dec-March, they are 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 16.87pts (+105.4% ROI), including 2/3 at 3m, 2/3 from LTO winners, 1/1 from 10 yr olds and 1/1 at C2...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Marathon at 8.00am Wednesday, whilst Unibet were half a point bigger, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th February 2020

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

4.30 Carlisle : Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

8.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Social City @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on fibresand worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding is 313 in handicaps so far, having won over this trip prior to a narrow (0.75 length) defeat over 2m at Lingfield 27 days ago at this grade, despite being forced to run quite wide. The winner has since stepped up two classes and won again, so hopefully that form pans out for us here.

Hayley Turner is in the saddle today and has been quietly impressive in A/W handicaps since coming back and since the end of July 2018, she has 22 winners from 156 (14.1% SR) for 71.2pts (+45.6% ROI) and she has been in excellent form more recently winning 6 of 17 (35.3%) for 51.4pts (+302.1%) over the last 4 weeks.

Trainer Tony Carroll's runners are 12 from 57 (21.1% SR) for 31.5pts (+55.3% ROI) when sent off at Evens to 11/1 in A/W handicaps of 1m6f and beyond since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 33.3pts (+123.3%) during December to April
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 18.8pts (+64.9%) at Class 6
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 10.7pts (+89.5%) at Class 6 during December to April
  • and 2 from 7 (28.6%) for 5.63pts (+80.4%) here at Southwell...

...where more specifically, he is 10 from 24 (41.7% SR) for 17.8pts (+74% ROI) at odds of Evens to 9/2 since the start of 2018 and these include of relevance today...

  • 9/19 (47.4%) for 18.2pts (+95.8%) after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 22.6pts (+188.6%) in fields of 9-12 runners
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 13.8pts (+114.9%) with 3-4 yr olds
  • 8/9 (88.9%) for 25.6pts (+284.8%) in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 7/10 (70%) for 15.79pts (+157.9%) with 3-4 yr olds after less than 4 weeks rest
  • 6/8 (75%) for 15.2pts (+190.1%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners
  • and 6 from 6 (100%) for 17.2pts (+286.7%) with 3-4 yr olds in fields of 9-12 runners after less than 4 weeks rest ...

All the above 7 facts also apply to Tony's runner, Luscifer, who is currently priced at 11/8 BOG in the 5.30 race here today...

...but the decision is...a 1pt win bet on Social City @ 3/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 17th February 2020

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

1.30 Haydock : Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 6/1 (Held up, slow 1st, outpaced 11th, hanging left before 4 out, soon well beaten)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Carlisle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m1f on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old mare is currently 4 from 20 (20% SR) which on face value is definitely reasonable and worth a second look. When you do look closer, you'll find that in the context of this race, her numbers are excellent when compared to her 7 rivals here , who are a combined 4 from 127 (3.15% SR)!

She has also made the frame in 7 of 16 defeats, meaning she has placed in 55% of all contests including the four wins and her 4/20 record includes of relevance today...

  • 4 wins and 6 places from 17 on soft/heavy
  • 4 and 6 from 16 with a 5-7lb claimer on board
  • 4 and 5 from 15 after 10-50 days rest
  • 4 and 6 from 14 in 5-9 runner contests
  • 4 and 5 from 13 from Jan-April
  • 4 and 3 from 8 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 and 6 from 15 over 2m-2m1f
  • 3 and 4 from 10 with Abbie McCain in the saddle
  • 3 and 2 from 8 on soft ground
  • 2 and 5 from 12 at Class 4

...and 5-7lb claimer + 5-9 runners + soft/heavy + Jan-April + 4/1 max odds + 11-50 dslr = 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 11.55pts (+288.8% ROI), including...

  • 3/3 for Abbie McCain
  • 3/3 on soft
  • 3/3 at 2m-2m1f
  • and 2/2 at Class 4

The potential fly in the ointment is the weight, of course. As she's so consistent and clearly the best horse in the race, she gets no help from the handicapper today. Jockey Abbie's 5lb claim is the only relief available, but there's a precedent here, as since the start of 2015, Donald McCain's handicap hurdlers that are top weight have won 8 of 30 (26.7% SR) for 13.7pts (+45.7% ROI) profit when sent off at Evens to 10/1 with a claimer jockey on board, including the following at play today...

  • 8/24 (33.3%) for 19.7pts (+82.1%) in fields of 4-9 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 21.7pts (+98.6%) at 1-30 dslr
  • 7/20 (35%) for 20.4pts (+102%) with 7-9 yr olds
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 2.4pts (+67.3%) at Class 4
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 12.6pts (+104.9%) on soft/heavy
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 8.4pts (+70.1%) over 2m-2m2f
  • 3/10 (30%) for 10.3pts (+103.1%) on soft
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 3.13pts (+62.6%) for Abbie McCain...

...whilst 4-9 runners + 1-30dslr + 6-9 yr old + Class 4 = 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 28.4pts (+315.7% ROI), including...

  • 4/4 at 2m-2m2f
  • 4/4 on soft/heavy
  • 3/3 on soft...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Princess Mononoke @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!