Tag Archive for: Stat of the day

SotD Update, 9th to 14th December 2019

/in /by

Not a good week by any stretch of the imagination and no real plausible reason behind it. The only comfort I can draw from the week is that the only two runners to make the the frame were the two I fancied the most, but one runner-up and one third place doesn't represent decent form, nor does it pay the bills!

This means that halfway through the month, I've work to do to end in profit, especially with fewer betting opportunities courtesy of the short Christmas break, but I'm not going down without a fight!

Selections & Results : 09/12/19 to 14/12/19

09/12 : Castletown @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/2
10/12 : Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG 9th at 11/2
11/12 : Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4
12/12 : Muraaqeb @ 4/1 2nd at 7/2
13/12 : Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/1
14/12 : Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 4/1

09/12/19 to 14/12/19 :
0 winning bets from 6 = 0.00% SR
P/L: -6.00pts

December 2019 :
2 winners from 12 = 16.66% SR
P/L: -4.17pts
ROI = -34.75%

2019 to date :
65 winners from 280 = 23.21% SR
P/L: +41.13pts
ROI = +14.69%

Overall:
655 winners from 2456 = 26.67% S.R
P/L: +537.54pts
ROI: +21.89%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

Click here for more details.

Stat of the Day, 14th December 2019

/in /by

Friday's pick was...

2.10 Bangor : Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/1 (Close up in rear, went 4th 4 out, ridden 2 out, no impression and lost 3rd flat)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.20 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG

...in an 11-runner (was 13!), Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m1½f on Tapeta worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 6 yr old Mare who won LTO on yard debut for David Evans over course and distance a week ago. She was coming off a 22-weeks break last time, so is entitled to improve for having had a run despite a 3lb rise in weight today.

Jockey Clifford Lee is 4 from 16 (25% SR) for 19.92pts (+124.5% ROI) over the last 14 days including 4/7 (57.1%) for 28.92pts (+413.1%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter, from which he is 3/4 (75%) for 20.95pts (+523.6%) for trainer David Evans.

The pair are actually 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 49.26pts (+182.44% ROI) this year, including...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 54pts (+300%) on the A/W
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 56.1pts (+330.1%) in handicaps
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 56pts (+622.1%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 31.35pts (+447.9%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 4/4 (100%) for 38.14pts (+953.5%) over 8.5 to 9.5 furlongs
  • 3/10 (30%) for 22.3pts (+223%) at Class 6
  • and 3/3 (100%) for 22.37pts (+745.8%) with LTO winners

They team up twice today with Sea Fox in the 7.50 race as well as our pick, a 6 yr old mare who is 5 from 24 (20.8% SR) for 8.09pts (+33.7% ROI) in handicaps here at Wolverhampton, including...

  • 5/22 (22.7%) for 10.09pts (+45.9%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 5/21 (23.8%) for 11.09pts (+52.8%) in fields of 8-13 runners
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 16.09pts (+100.6%) in 2018/19
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 17.09pts (+113.9%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 13.15pts (+101.2%) over this 9.5f C&D
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 10.12pts (+77.8%) within a fortnight of her last run
  • 4/8 (50%) for 15.12pts (+189%) after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 9.43pts (+67.3%) at Class 6 (she's also 2/9 at C5!)
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 9.18pts (+183.6%) after a win LTO...

...whilst in 8-13 runner handicaps over this course and distance at 8/1 and shorter for less than £4,000 prize money, Sunshineandbubbles is 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 19.15pts (+273.6% ROI) since the start of 2018 and these include 3/5 (60%) at Class 6, 3/5 (60%) with a fortnight of her last run and 2 from 2 after a win last time out...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Sunshineandbubbles @ 7/2 or 10/3 BOG as offered by 888Sport & Bet365 respectively at 5.55pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 7.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th December 2019

/in /by

Thursday's pick was...

7.20 Chelmsford : Muraaqeb @ 4/1 2nd at 7/2 (Chased leaders, headway over 1f out, went 2nd and hung left inside final furlong, stayed on same pace, no chance with winner)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.10 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 3, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m7f on Heavy ground worth £6,238 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding has finished 212231 in his last six starts, all in handicap hurdle contests with today's jockey, Harry Reed, in the saddle, including a 2 length victory at Ayr when last seen almost six weeks ago. He is 5 from 17 (29.4% SR) for 19.09pts (+112.3% ROI) in handicap hurdles since joining Tristan Davidson's yard (all ridden by Harry Reed), including...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 22.09pts (+157.8%) at 2m6f to 3m1.5f
  • 4/12 (33.3%) for 21.17pts (+176.5%) going left handed
  • 4/8 (50%) for 6.50pts (+81.25%) at 4/1 and shorter
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 25.57pts (+365.3%) in races worth less than £8k

But Tristan's success with hurdlers isn't just based around this particular horse, as since the start of 2018 his other hurdlers are 9/32 (28.1% SR) for 22.54pts (+70.5% ROI), with the following at play today...

  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 25.68pts (+98.8%) using Harry Reed's services
  • 8/18 (44.4%) for 35.1pts (+195%) at odds of 11/4 to 9/1
  • 6/10 (60%) for 30.57pts (+305.7%) at 31-75 days since last run
  • and 5/9 (55.6%) for 19.89pts (+221%) at 2m4.5f to 2m7f...

...whilst the yard's LTO winners are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 22.33pts (+77% ROI) since 2015, including of note today...

  • 10/22 (45.5%) for 27.38pts (+124.4%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 12.64pts (+105.3%) with 7/8 yr olds
  • and 4/8 (50%) for 6.55pts (+81.9%) at 2m7f to 3m0.5f

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Justatenner @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 5.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.10 Bangor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th December 2019

/in /by

Wednesday's pick was...

1.10 Lingfield : Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Keen tracked leader, led over 4f out, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.20 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, it's a simple "horses for courses" approach today, as we have an in-form 5 yr old gelding running in what look to be favoured conditions. His last four races have ended 1213, culminating in a very decent effort at Wolverhampton five days ago. This was despite setting out from the widest draw on a lesser preferred surface over a slightly shorter than optimal trip after being off track 113 days.

Now back on the Polytrack turned out quickly, things look more well suited for him today, as I'll hopefully highlight now...

I'll start with his overall All-Weather record, which is very good. He has made the frame in 10 of 19 starts (52.6%), going on to win 6 times (31.6% SR) with those wins generating 55.66pts profit at a very healthy ROI of 292.9% and with today's conditions in mind, his A/W record includes...

  • 6 wins, 4 places from 17 in fields of 9-15 runners : a 35.3% SR producing 57.66pts @ 339.2% ROI
  • 6 + 4 / 16 at Class 6 = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 6 + 4 / 16 in cheekpieces = 37.5% SR and 58.66pts @ 366.6%
  • 5 + 3 / 16 going left handed = 31.25% SR and 44.22pts @ 276.4%
  • 4 + 3 /13 in handicaps = 30.8% SR and 29.8pts @ 229.2%
  • 5 + 2 / 9 on Polytrack = 55.6% SR and 41.86pts  @ 465.1%
  • 5 + 2 / 8 over 1m2f/1m3f = 62.5% SR and 42.85pts @ 535.6%
  • 4 +1 / 6 here at Chelmsford = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over 1m2f = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • 4 +1 / 6 over this course and distance = 66.6% SR and 30.42pts @ 507.1%
  • and 3 + 1 /5 when sent off at 6/1 or shorter = 60% SR and 16.17pts @ 323.4%

...and when wearing cheekpieces, going left handed on Polytrack over 1m2f in a Class 6 field of 11-15 runners within 10 days of his last run, he is 4 from 4 (100% SR) for 32.42pts (+810.6% ROI) profit, all over today's course and distance and all within the last eight months...

...backing up...a 1pt win bet on Muraaqeb @ 4/1 non-BOG until raceday as was offered by Hills at 5.40pm on Wednesday, whilst SkyBet were next best at a half point shorter for those of you still able to get BOG from them. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 7.20 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th December 2019

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

6.45 Wolverhampton : Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG 9th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 13f out until over 5f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.1o Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £2.782 to the winner...

Why?...

In a race where none of the runners are in any real kind of decent form, I'm siding with an 8 yr old gelding who has 10 wins to his name and races off a mark 10lbs and 2 classes lower than when winning back to back Class 4 handicaps here on this track earlier in the year, including one over course and distance.

His overall career stats are modest at 10/103 (9.7% SR) for a loss of 11.63pts (-11.3% ROI), but he does go much better when faced with the conditions on offer today, as he is 8 from 17 (47.1% SR) for 42.82pts (+251.9% ROI) in 6/7f handicaps at odds of 12/1 and shorter when wearing a hood in a field of 7-10 runners after three weeks rest, running for trainer David O'Meara...

...who himself is 15/70 (21.4% SR) for 47.43pts (+67.8% ROI) in A/W handicaps here at Lingfield since the start of 2016 with horses sent off at 10/1 and shorter, including...

  • 12/41 (29.3%) for 50.29pts (+122.7%) over 5-7 furlongs
  • 8/37 (21.6%) for 26.3pts (+71.1%) during December/January
  • 8/25 (32%) for 39.6pts (+158.4%) in 2019
  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 23.2pts (+145%) from 8/9 yr olds
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 7.16pts (+102.3%) with jockey David Probert
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 18pts (+300%) at Class 6...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highland Acclaim @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2019

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

1.15 Musselburgh : Castletown @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders in 5th, pushed along and outpaced after 12th, never on terms after : ran like a pig if truth be told)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Apprentice Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner.

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has been a model of consistency since switching to Karen McLintock's yard last year, winning all five starts for his new handler, including of relevance today...

  • 4/4 this year
  • 4/4 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 4/4 in handicaps
  • 3/3 on A/W, all on tapeta
  • 1/1 at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 at Class 5

In addition to the above, he has also landed a Class 4 hurdle over 2m4f for Karen McLintock, proving that stamina shouldn't be an issue.

Sean Davis rides him for the first time and whilst his own career stats of 88/1408 (6.25% SR) for a loss of 367.3pts (-26.1% ROI) aren't exactly inspiring, he is actually 5 from 31 (16.1% SR) for 74.67pts (+240.9% ROI) profit here at Wolverhampton at an A/E of 1.77 and these numbers include 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.67pts (+151.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

Trainer Karen McLintock comes here after hitting 3 winners from 11 over the past fortnight, including 2 from 5 here at Wolverhampton, where longer-term her runners are 9/25 (36% SR) for 20.62pts (+82.5% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 9/15 (60%) for 30.62pts (+204.1%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 24.7pts (+130%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 16.92pts (+76.9%) in handicaps
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.41pts (+212.8%) from 5 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.26pts (+147.8%) with her only runner at the track that day
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 17.82pts (+297%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.55pts (+165.5%) at Class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.21pts (+180.2%) with her only runner of the day
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 1.97pts (+98.5%) over this 2m0.5f course and distance...

...and when she has been represented by a sole 5 yr old handicapper sent off at 8/1 and shorter in a field of 9-13 runners, she has 5 wins from 5 (100% SR) for 22.26pts (+445.2% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG  as was offered by Bet365, whilst Hills & Sky Bet (both non-BOG until raceday) were slightly longer/shorter respectively at 4.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Castletown @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.

In those last 6 runs he is...

  • 2222 under jockey Henry Brooke
  • 2312 in handicaps
  • 2232 on Good to Soft
  • 22 at Class 4 (won at Class 3)
  • 22 in December
  • 12 at 2m4.5f
  • and was a runner-up on his only run here at Musselburgh.

He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...

  • 22/90 (24.4%) for 20.2pts (+22.4%) in handicaps
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 47.9pts (+74.9%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 31pts (+39.2%) over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f
  • 20/69 (29%) for 37.6pts (+54.5%) at 51 to 170 miles from home
  • 19/66 (28.8%) for 24.8pts (+37.6%) with her only runner at the track
  • 18/65 (27.7%) for 18.6pts (+28.6%) with her only runner of the day
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.8pts (+62.6%) with jockey Henry Brooke
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 22.3pts (+131.1%) with LTO runners-up

...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...

  • Henry Brooke is 5/10 (50%) for 15.74pts (+157.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 14.81pts (+148.1%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7pts (+100%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG  as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Castletown @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.

In those last 6 runs he is...

  • 2222 under jockey Henry Brooke
  • 2312 in handicaps
  • 2232 on Good to Soft
  • 22 at Class 4 (won at Class 3)
  • 22 in December
  • 12 at 2m4.5f
  • and was a runner-up on his only run here at Musselburgh.

He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...

  • 22/90 (24.4%) for 20.2pts (+22.4%) in handicaps
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 47.9pts (+74.9%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 31pts (+39.2%) over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f
  • 20/69 (29%) for 37.6pts (+54.5%) at 51 to 170 miles from home
  • 19/66 (28.8%) for 24.8pts (+37.6%) with her only runner at the track
  • 18/65 (27.7%) for 18.6pts (+28.6%) with her only runner of the day
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.8pts (+62.6%) with jockey Henry Brooke
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 22.3pts (+131.1%) with LTO runners-up

...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...

  • Henry Brooke is 5/10 (50%) for 15.74pts (+157.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 14.81pts (+148.1%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7pts (+100%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG  as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

SotD Update, 2nd to 7th December 2019

/in /by

The quest for one more profitable month to round of another successful year for SotD kicked off with winners on Monday and Friday for a profit, just shy of 2pts, which is a decent start even if I was ruing the narrow defeat for Rock Sound on Thursday.

Had he managed to get up, we'd have been looking at +6.33pts for the week, basically giving a free hit for the coming week, but I suppose it's a case of taking what you can when you can and moving on.

Selections & Results : 02/12/19 to 07/12/19

02/12 : Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/4
03/12 : Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 4/1
04/12 : Maazel @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 5/4
05/12 : Rock Sound @ 7/2 2nd at 6/4
06/12 : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4
07/12 : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2

02/12/19 to 07/12/19 :
2 winning bets from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.83pts

December 2019 :
2 winners from 6 = 33.33% SR
P/L: +1.83pts
ROI = +30.50%

2019 to date :
65 winners from 274 = 23.72% SR
P/L: +47.13pts
ROI = +17.20%

Overall:
655 winners from 2450 = 26.73% S.R
P/L: +543.54pts
ROI: +22.19%

P.S. The full month by month SotD story can be found right here.
P.P.S The review of SotD's 2012 performance is here.
Whilst the details for 2013 are now online here.
And the figures for 2014 are now available here.
Our review of 2015 can be found right here
Whilst 2016's details are right here
And here is the full story from 2017.

2018 was the latest full year for SotD and the yearly review is right here

Stat of the Day is just one component of the excellent package available to all Geegeez Gold Members, so why not take the plunge and get involved right now?

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Stat of the Day, 7th December 2019

/in /by

Friday's pick was...

1.20 Sandown : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4 (Close up, tracked leaders 3 out, ridden to lead on landing last, ran on to win by a 3.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

12.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native Robin @ 4/1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on currently Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding is a consistent sort, finishing 123222 in his last six outings and despite not winning any of the last five, he still boasts an impressive 5 wins from 16 over fences, including...

  • 5/13 under today's jockey Nick Scholfield
  • 4/9 at Class 4
  • 4/6 in December/January
  • 3/7 going right handed
  • and 2/3 in December

Aside from the above, this horse's name kept cropping up when I was going through my list of possible qualifiers, so I'm going to keep the separate stats brief.

We'll start by saying that the yard is in good nick too, with 5 winners from 19 in the past fortnight, including 4/12 in the last week, whilst since the start of 2017, Jeremy Scott's handicap jumpers are 23 from 80 (28.75% SR) for 16.84pts (+21% ROI) when sent off shorter than 7/1 on soft/heavy ground.

Whilst since 2014, Jeremy's Class 4 handicap chasers are 40/197 (20.3% SR) for 77.5pts (+39.3% ROI), with Nick Scholfield riding 17 winners from 79 (21.5%), whilst clocking up 38.2pts (+48.4%) profit.

And in that same 2014-19 time frame, Jeremy's sub-12/1 handicap chasers dropping in class are 18/46 (39.1% SR) for 90.6pts (+196.9% ROI) with Nick Scholfield once again being the go-to guy with an 11/24 (45.8%) record producing profits of 69.4pts (+289.3%)

Also, since 2014, when a handicap chaser has been Jeremy Scott's only runner of the day, he's has 24 winners from 123 (19.5% SR) for 79.5pts (+65.2% ROI) profit with lower grade (ie C4/5) runners winning 20 of 86 (23.2%) for 81.3pts (+95.7%).

And finally, I'll wrap this one up with a quick nod to Native Robin's recent form, since in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases since 2012, horses sent off shorter than 5/1 after finishing 222 in their previous three outings are 38 from 110 (34.6% SR) for 35.9pts (+32.6% ROI) when they'd last ran 11-45 days earlier. This includes 10 winners from 18 (55.6%) for 17.42pts (+96.8%) over 2m3.5f/2m4f ...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1  as was offered by Hills at 4.50pm on Friday. Hills were the only price available as I went to press, but another 8 firms went on to match that price, including some BOG firms. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!