Tag Archive for: Robyn Brisland

Brisland plotting Royal Ascot route for Doddie’s Impact

Robyn Brisland may consider a trip to France with his Brocklesby hero Doddie’s Impact ahead of a planned appearance at Royal Ascot.

The Pearl Secret colt, who was bought for just £6,000 in October, displayed a willing attitude to win the first two-year-old race of the season at Doncaster on Saturday – knuckling down to get the better of 3-1 favourite and €250,000 purchase Valadero.

Brisland is keen to step his charge up in trip on his next start as he plots a route to a possible tilt to the Royal meeting in June.

“He’s come out of it well, he’s very tough – he could almost go again today,” said the trainer.

“We were hopeful going into the race, but you can never be a certainty with a load of two-year-olds running in a straight line.

“We’ve got to be looking that way (Royal Ascot) and in the meantime I’d like to step him up to six furlongs. I haven’t got anything in mind at the minute, but we might end up going abroad if there’s a race for him.

“The prize-money is always good if you go abroad, so we might look at going to France.”

While his Royal Ascot target will likely depend on how he fares on his next start, Brisland currently views the Coventry Stakes as the most suitable target.

He added: “I don’t think the Windsor Castle would be any good for him as they’d go too quick, so I think it would have to be the Coventry, but I’m sure there’ll be a few aeroplanes out before then!”

Loughnane stars as Doddie’s Impact bags Brocklesby

Billy Loughnane has carried all before him on the all-weather circuit this winter and showed he is just as effective on turf by winning the first race of the new season on Doddie’s Impact at Doncaster.

The Pertemps Network EBF Brocklesby Stakes is the traditional curtain-raiser on Town Moor and attracted a field of 16 unraced juveniles, with €250,000 purchase Valadero the 3-1 market leader for last year’s winning owners Amo Racing.

Favourite backers looked sure to collect when Kevin Stott grabbed the initiative with two furlongs to run, but he understandably showed signs of greenness close home, allowing Doddie’s Impact a chance.

Trained by Robyn Brisland, the son of Pearl Secret is named in honour of the late Scottish Rugby Union legend Doddie Weir, with a percentage of prize money won going to MND charities, the disease which cruelly cut short Weir’s life.

Showing the tenacity his namesake was famous for, Doddie’s Impact (10-1) stuck to his task gamely to win by a neck.

Loughnane said: “It’s class. Mr Brisland had him in good shape. I’d been in during the week to have a sit on him and I thought he’d go close.

“I think he had a tough opponent today, but he knuckled down well and he wanted to win.

“I was riding without my claim in that race so it was brave of Mr Brisland to put me up.”

Doddie’s Impact (left) gets up to win the Brocklesby at Doncaster
Doddie’s Impact (left) gets up to win the Brocklesby at Doncaster (Nigel French/PA)

Mike Hocking, of Cross Channel Racing who part-own the winner, said: “We’re trying to raise money for the charity and what a story.

“It’s all about raising money and awareness for MND to try and find a cure.

“We are donating 50 per cent of the prize money to the charity and we have nine other yearlings so anyone can get involved. I can’t tell you if this is the best one though!”

Brisland, meanwhile, has loftier in targets in mind for Doddie’s Impact, saying: “It’s an amazing story and fingers crossed they can have a lot of luck.

“We can starting dusting off our top hats and go to Royal Ascot now.”

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.30 Exeter : Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 11.27am due to the going)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty low grade/quality stuff here today, where the same horses seem to take turns at beating each other. Despite that, our 5 yr old mare is one of the more consistent types at this level and has made the frame four times from her last six efforts, including one win and she was a runner-up when last seen a week ago, plus she was a winner the last time she ran in non-handicap company.

Her record on the A/W is better than most at this level with a 50% place strike rate after 3 wins (21.4% SR) and 4 places from 14, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 12 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 within four weeks of her last run
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 off a mark (OR) of 46-50
  • 3 wins from 8 in fields of 12 or more runners
  • and 2 wins, 3 places from 7 over a one mile trip...

...whilst in Class 6, 12-14 runner contests off 46-50 within four weeks of her last run, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 146.45pts (+2929% ROI) including 2/3 (66.6%) for 129.6pts (+4320%) over a mile. The P/L and ROI here are skewed by a 50/1 winner paying 130/1 at betfair SP, but the strike rates are still more than valid!

Her trainer Robyn Brisland is 4 from 16 (25% SR) over the last fortnight and the yard's horses seem to go well under today's jockey Kieran O'Neill, winning 3 of 10 in the last fortnight and 6 of 23 (26.1% SR) for 11.91pts (+51.8% ROI) so far this year, including...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 24.91pts (+249.1%) at odds of 6/4 to 10/1
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 10.07pts (+59.2%) at 5f to 1m
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.07pts (+93.3%) at Class 6
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 21.07pts (+351.1%) at 6/4 to 10/1 in Class 6 contests at 5f to 1m.

And with this mare turning out pretty soon after her recent runner-up finish LTO, it might be of interest to know that Robyn Brisland's runners are 16 from 69 (23.2% SR) for 62.3pts (+90.3%) within 4-10 days of their last run with All-Weather contests yielding 15 from 50 (30%) and 68.7pts (+137.4%) profit.

And from those 50 A/W runners quickly turned back out, Robyn is...

  • 10/25 (40%) for 70.9pts (+283.6%) with females
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 36.1pts (+150.3%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 53.4pts (+197.9%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.2pts (+154.2%) lost by a neck to 3 lengths LTO
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 39pts (+144.4%) over 5f to 1m
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 39.5pts (+263%) from females on Polytrack
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.43pts (+53%) in January
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 17pts (+188.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.41pts (+45.8%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th January 2020

Monday's pick was...

1.35 Ayr : Ripstick @ 11/4 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Held up in rear, headway into 3rd approaching 4 out, left in well held 2nd place 2 out, dropped to 3rd at the last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.15 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 5,  Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m½f  on heavy (soft in places) ground worth £3,184 to the winner...

Why?...

No win in eleven for this for this 5 yr old gelding is probably not the first thing you wanted me to tell you about today's pick, but I'd quickly add that a run of results reading 334232 does suggest that a win is coming and isn't out of turn! In fact, he was only beaten by a head over course and distance off this mark, under today's jockey (Kieran O'Neill) LTO, 9 days ago.

He was headed in the final strides and trainer Robyn Brisland is now applying cheekpieces in a bid to eke a little more out of him in the finish to help him improve what is actually a respectable record for these type of lower grade A/W runners who seem to just take turns at beating each other.

To date he is 4 from 22 (18.2% SR) for 17.57pts (+79.9% ROI) despite his recent run of placed efforts, but what I found interesting looking at this profile was that all four wins have come under a set of conditions prevalent today ie...

  •  off a mark (OR) of 50-65
  • trips of 1m2f to 1m4f
  • A/W handicap races
  • left handed tracks
  • standard going
  • wearing a tongue tie...

...and when all of the above have been present as they are today, he is 4 from 10 (40% SR) for 29.57pts (+295.7% ROI) profit, including...

  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 16.25pts (+232.2%) here at Southwell
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.4pts (+342.3%) under Kieran O'Neill
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 6.75pts (+112.6%) over course and distance
  • 2/5 (40%) for 8.03pts (+160.6%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 9.75pts (+325.1%) within 10 days of his last run.

Those A/W stats aren't too surprising, if you knew that his sire is North Light, whose offspring are 10 from 43 (23.3% SR) for 51.2pts (+119.1% ROI) on the All-Weather over the last four years, including of relevance today...

  • 10/39 (25.6%) for 55.2pts (+141.5%) with male runners
  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 56.2pts (+147.9%) over trips of 8.5 to 12 furlongs
  • 10/37 (27%) for 57.2pts (+154.6%) on Standard going
  • 10/35 (28.6%) for 59.2pts (+169.1%) from 4-8 yr olds
  • 8/33 (24.2%) for 47.8pts (+145%) in handicaps
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 38.2pts (+238.9%) at 6-15 days since they last ran...

...whilst 4-8 yr old males at 8.5-12 furlongs on Standard going are 10/30 (33.3% SR) for 64.2pts (+214% ROI), including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 55.8pts (+223.2%) in handicaps
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 41.2pts (+317.2%) at 6-15 dslr
  • and 5/10 (50%) for 40.1pts (+401%) in handicaps at 6-15 dslr...

...which directed me to...a 1pt win bet on Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Ladbrokes (and also Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.00am on Tuesday. (10/3 was widely available at 9.05am, whilst Coral were at 7/2.) To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!