Tag Archive for: Richard Fahey

State looks Great in Westow stroll

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Great State completed a hat-trick in fine style under Oisin Murphy to lift the laurels in the Listed British EBF 40th Anniversary Westow Stakes at York.

Michaela’s Boy set a furious clip under Freddie Larson, having broke smartly from the stalls in the five-furlong contest.

He was still in front with a furlong to race and despite drifting right, he stuck on well but had no answer to the Richard Fahey-trained winner (13-2), who picked up smartly on the stands rail.

The three-year-old grey, who had won at Southwell and Thirsk on his previous two starts, powered home to score by two and a half lengths from Pillow Talk, who pipped the long-time leader for third.

Fahey said: “We had a long discussion whether we kept this horse back for the sprint at Ascot (the Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes) because we do like the horse and it’s not very often you have a horse rated in the 90s that you think is well handicapped.

“He won’t be well handicapped any longer, but I’m delighted for Sheikh Sultan.

“He’s a real dude, very laid back and easy to deal with, he’s a pleasure to train and I’m delighted to have him.

“I was a little bit worried because he’d been running on the all-weather and won on very soft ground last time and it was quick ground today, so I had the excuse ready if he did get beat.

“He’s a talented horse, I’ll talk to Sheikh Sultan and decide where to go.”

Murphy was on board due to a suspension being served by Fahey’s stable jockey, Oisin Orr.

“Oisin Orr would have usually ridden him but unfortunately he’s suspended today, so I stepped in,” said Murphy.

“He’s a horse that I’m sure everyone at Musley Bank is very excited about. He’s an improver and he’s a lovely horse.

“He probably would enjoy more juice in the ground and he’d stay a little bit further as he was on his head in the middle part of the race, but he got going when they slowed down.

“He’s definitely a horse on the up.”

Midnight Mile ready to go the Musidora distance

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Breeders’ Cup fourth Midnight Mile and Fillies’ Mile runner-up Novakai head a strong Yorkshire-trained challenge for the Tattersalls Musidora Stakes at York.

Richard Fahey trains Midnight Mile, who lost her unbeaten record but still ran with credit in the Juvenile Fillies Turf having been slowly away, after previously landing the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket.

From the family of Quarter Moon and Yesterday, who were both second in the Oaks, Midnight Mile does not hold an entry for the Classic but given her connections, it would not be a surprise if she was added to the Epsom field should she run well.

“We are very pleased with her. She has wintered extremely well and we are very happy with her,” said Fahey.

“She has filled out and I should imagine this trip will probably suit her well. But this is a good Musidora, a very good race and it will be a good filly who wins it.

“She started late last year and she took a little time to come to herself, so I haven’t rushed her this year.

“We skipped the Guineas and all that carry on and decided this was the route to go.

“She got some nice experience last year and we’ve always felt she would make a better three-year-old, so fingers crossed.

“I’ll tell you after the race where we think she’ll get to!”

Novakai, who was also second in the May Hill Stakes, is much the highest-rated filly in the field.

Trained by Karl Burke, the daughter of Lope De Vega chased home the now-retired Commissioning in the Fillies’ Mile and is bred to improve for middle distances this season being out of a Nathaniel mare.

While the two aforementioned fillies bring plenty of Pattern form to the table, the favourite is Sir Michael Stoute’s Infinite Cosmos, a Newmarket maiden winner.

Andrew Balding’s Sea Of Roses has also only won a maiden, but she beat Infinite Cosmos on that occasion and has finished second in a French Group Three already this term.

Jack Channon’s Gather Ye Rosebuds won her only start to date by nine and a half lengths on soft ground at Newbury.

The form has not been tested as yet, but she could not have created a better impression.

“It was a great result first time and she put in what looks like an outstanding performance. She’s comfortably beaten a well-touted field, albeit on softer ground than she’ll encounter on Wednesday. But she couldn’t have been more impressive,” said Channon.

“I feel like, mentally and physically, she’s improved from that run. And if she can replicate that sort of level of form, then you’d like to think that she goes there with a great chance.

“She’s a big filly that’s maturing day in, day out. She hadn’t quite lost her coat at Newbury, but she’s really shining now. She’s started to flourish in the last three weeks and I couldn’t be happier with the way all her work and everything like that’s gone.

“She hasn’t proven she’s stakes class yet, albeit it being a very impressive maiden win. So she’s got a lot of questions to answer – but hopefully she’s got the answers.

“Whether she’s good enough or not, it’s exciting to at least have a horse that you feel like you might be able to compete a bit with the big boys. It’s just nice to hopefully have something good enough to highlight the fact, given the opportunity with the right stock, that you can produce the goods.”

John and Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister finished last of 12 in the Fred Darling at Newbury and is expected to appreciate the better surface on the Knavesmire.

“She won well first time at Doncaster on her debut at the back end of last season and obviously the ground at the Greenham meeting at Newbury was very, very testing indeed,” said Thady Gosden.

“She didn’t handle the ground, as many didn’t. We’ve always thought she is a filly with plenty of class and obviously it is a very competitive race, but she should like the track.

“We certainly think she’ll take a step forward.”

Lambada represents Aidan O’Brien, winner one of her three starts so far and a relatively rare Dubawi runner for the Ballydoyle team.

Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien are represented by Lambada
Ryan Moore and Aidan O’Brien are represented by Lambada (Lorraine O’Sullivan/PA)

“I have a lot of time for a few of these, and obviously I rode Infinite Cosmos to win her maiden in decisive fashion at Newmarket earlier in the month and she is a filly I rate, but hopefully Lambada can hold her own,” her jockey Ryan Moore told Betfair.

“I haven’t ridden her in a race before but she won a decent maiden over an extended nine furlongs at Gowran Park in good style on her reappearance and the further they went, the better she looked there.

“We are obviously dealing with a lot of unexposed fillies here, so it is hard to be anything other than hopeful, but the trip certainly looks as if it will suit.”

David Simcock’s once-raced Empress Wu completes the field.

Fahey eyeing Musidora starting point for Midnight Mile

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Richard Fahey is targeting the Musidora Stakes at York’s Dante meeting in May as a starting point for his exciting filly Midnight Mile.

A debut winner at Doncaster last July, she was not seen again until winning the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket in October.

That set her up for a trip to the Breeders’ Cup and an appearance in the Juvenile Fillies Turf but she lost all chance of winning with a tardy start.

It was to her immense credit that she came from last to finish fourth of 14 behind Meditate and Fahey is happy to skip the Guineas in favour of middle distances this summer. Given she is closely rated to both Yesterday and Quarter Moon, both second in the Oaks, she looks bred to stay in excess of a mile.

“I’m very pleased with her at the moment, she’s wintered very well and she’s going nicely,” said Fahey.

“I was a little bit frustrated at the Breeders’ Cup that she didn’t bounce and run and get the place we wanted her to be in, but that’s racing. It was only the third run of her life and she’s bred to be a better three-year-old. I was pleased we learned a bit more about her.

“I’m going to skip the Guineas and all that. I’m going to step her up to a mile and a quarter and start her off in something like the Musidora. I think I’d take her straight there, I just haven’t rushed her this year and let her mature, which she has done, and we’ll have a second-half of the season campaign.”

Barefoot Angel will run in a Guineas trial
Barefoot Angel will run in a Guineas trial (Jeff Holmes/PA)

Another three-year-old filly in the yard who will head for a Guineas trial is Barefoot Angel, winner of the Group Three Firth of Clyde Stakes and an unlucky fourth in Redcar’s Two Year Old Trophy under a penalty.

“She was another who didn’t bounce and race that day at Redcar, but we’ll run her in a Guineas trial and see what happens,” said Fahey.

“She’s in both Guineas and we’ll play it by ear after her trial to see what we want to do. It will be Newmarket or Newbury for a trial.”

Fahey was on the mark at Royal Ascot last season with The Ridler, a 50-1 winner of the Norfolk Stakes but he disappointed on his only other run in France after that.

“The Ridler is good and he’ll start off in the Greenham and see where we go after that,” said Fahey.

“He just didn’t come back as I’d have liked after France but he’s done extremely well over the winter, so we’re still undecided whether he’s a sprinter or whether we can stretch him out.

“We lost our two Group One winners from last year (The Platinum Queen was sold and sent to Roger Varian and Perfect Power retired), so we have to find another one.

“We have a good batch of two-year-olds. so hopefully one of them can step up.”

Two-year-old Flat Debutants, Part 2

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In part 1 of this series, here, I suggested that if we were looking to blindly back two-year-olds on their flat debut this season, our starting point should initially be those juveniles trained by Richard Fahey, Jessica Harrington and Ger Lyons, writes Chris Worrall. As well as that standout trio, I was also interested in those trained by Paul Cole, Eve Johnson Houghton and David Simcock, notwithstanding the reservations I highlighted about those three.

I went on to highlight in that opening piece that we may be able to eliminate some bad bets by focusing more on each trainer's runners based on a series of factors: track location, actual track, race class/distance/going, jockeys used, time of year and sex of horse.

Richard Fahey

So, if we start with our three headline acts, we can see that Richard Fahey's results with 2yo flat debutants from 2016-19 were as follows:

Closer inspection of those 381 runners showed no real bias towards either gender or for any particular reported ground conditions, but of the other five tested variables, I found (in sample size order) that those numbers included:

  • 55/363 (15.15%) for 135.66pts (+37.37%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 53/359 (14.76%) for 125.13pts (+34.85%) during April to September
  • 51/339 (15.04%) for 122.82pts (+36.24%) in Yorkshire, NW & Central England
  • 47/314 (14.97%) for 132.07pts (+42.06%) at Classes 4 & 5
  • 38/236 (16.10%) for 92.88pts (+39.36%) ridden by Tony Hamilton or Paul Hanagan

(all profit quoted is to Betfair Starting Price, BSP)

And when combine all those filters, we are left with...

Suggestion: back all Richard Fahey 2yo Flat debutants ridden by Tony Hamilton or Paul Hanagan at up to 7 furlongs in Class 4 or 5 races in Yorkshire, the North West or Central England during April to September.

Jessica Harrington

And now onto Jessica Harrington, whose 2016-19 stats were...

From which (in order of winners)...

  • 18/114 (15.79%) for 81.5pts (+71.49%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 15/122 (12.3%) for 23.28pts (+19.08%) in Leinster
  • 15/104 (14.42%) for 56.85pts (+54.67%) on ground declared as Good to Yielding or firmer
  • 15/80 (18.75%) for 80.7pts (+100.88%) during May to July
  • 13/95 (13.68%) for 26.94pts (+28.35%) with female runners

And combining trip, track location, going and time of year gives us...

             

of which the gender spilt is as follows....

The females win more often, but the males generate more profit, so I'm not really convinced we should narrow it down either way.

Suggestion: back Jessica Harrington's 2 year olds on debut in Leinster (Bellewstown, Curragh, Fairyhouse, Gowran Park, Leopardstown, Naas, Navan) during May to July at trips up to 7 furlongs and on ground described as Good to Yielding or firmer.

Ger Lyons

The final member of our top trio is Ger Lyons, who qualified on his record over the last three seasons of...

Once again, we'll subject those runners to the filtering system, where it can be noted:

  • 30/130 (23.08%) for 90.71pts (+69.78%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 30/125 (24%) for 95.71pts (+76.57%) during April to September
  • 29/137 (21.17%) for 76.78pts (+56.05%) on ground deemed Soft or better
  • 29/136 (21.32%) for 79.30pts (+58.31%) in Leinster and Munster
  • 28/116 (24.14%) for 79.07pts (+68.16%) when ridden by Colin Keane

and when we combine those five sets of data, we end up with a fantastic set of numbers reading...

Once again both sexes fare well as follows...

...so we'll not differentiate between the two.

Suggestion: back all Ger Lyons' 2 yo debutants ridden by Colin Keane over trips of 6f to a mile in Leinster (see above for tracks) and Munster (Cork, Killarney, Limerick, Listowel, Thurles, Tipperary) on Soft ground or better from April to September.

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Those were the three main protagonists from part 1 of this series; combining their two-year-old flat debutants under the specified conditions brings us to 66 winners from 293 runners (22.53% SR) and 266.74pts of profit at an excellent ROI of some 91.04%.

Clearly it will be difficult to fully repeat those numbers but if they only do half as well in the next three or four years we'll still be looking at 130+ points.

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So what of our 'second string' trio of Paul Cole, Eve Johnson Houghton and David Simcock? Are there conditions under which we might follow their juvenile debutants?

The easiest way to find out is to dive into the data, starting with...

Paul Cole

Cole's base figures with 2yo first-time starters are:

That's a small sample size so caution is advised, but they do include of note...

  • 6/35 (17.14%) for 68.1pts (+194.57%) in Classes 4 and 5
  • 6/30 (20%) for 73.1pts (+243.67%) over trips of 5 or 6 furlongs
  • 6/29 (20.69%) for 74.1pts (+255.52%) during April to July
  • 6/14 (42.86%) for 89.1pts (+636.43%) at Brighton, Leicester & Newbury
  • 5/28 (17.86%) for 31.35pts (+111.96%) in SE England
  • 3/10 (30%) for 60.92pts (+609.2%) with Raul Da Silva in the saddle

You probably don't need me to point out how Paul got all of his six original winners, but combining those first four filters gives...

Suggestion: keep an eye out for Paul Cole 2yo firsters in Class 4 or 5 races over 5 or 6 furlongs at Brighton, Leicester or Newbury from April to July, especially if Raul da Silva's on board, even if it's a big price.

Eve Johnson Houghton

Next up is Eve Johnson Houghton, whose own record during the last four seasons was...

...which, like Paul Cole previously, was a smaller than ideal sample size, but did include...

  • 8/52 (15.38%) for 141.35pts (+271.82%) excluding April and July
  • 7/62 (11.29%) for 98.02pts (+158.10%) in Classes 4 and 5
  • 7/46 (15.22%) for 106.94pts (+232.48%) over 6 or 7 furlongs
  • 6/47 (12.77%) for 120.04pts (+255.41%) in SE England
  • 6/41 (14.63%) for 88.22pts (+215.16%) ridden by Charles Bishop
  • 6/37 (16.22%) for 142.18pts (+384.26%) from female runners
  • and 5/21 (23.81%) for 42.74pts (+203.52%) on Good to Soft or Soft ground

Combining class, month, distance and going gives us...

...and despite this dozen qualifiers include 4 from 7 (57.1%) for 48.5pts (+392.7%) for Charles Bishop, 3 from 6 (50%) for 43.6pts (+726.2%) for females and 3 from 6 (50%) for 31.4pts (+524%) in the South East, there is an uneasy feel to the exclusion of April and July - I can't come up with a logical reason why the horses would fail to fire in that month. Instead, I've taken a more straightforward view...

Suggestion: Look out for Eve Johnson Houghton's Class 4 and 5 runners over 6 or 7 furlongs on Good to Soft or Soft ground. Add a bonus point if you see Charles Bishop down to ride.

David Simcock

And finally for this look at trainers who perform well with juvenile first time starters, we'll put David Simcock under the microscope, despite his sobering record last season (0 from 20). Even with that abject campaign, his four year score is...

and again we've only a small number of runners to consider, but they do include...

  • 6/31 (19.4%) for 18.65pts (+60.17%) when ridden by Jamie Spencer
  • 4/20 (20%) for 49.15pts (+245.76%) over a mile
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 27.4pts (+182.66%) at Yarmouth
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 23.6pts (+168.6%) for Jamie Spencer over a mile
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 28.6pts (+317.8%) for Jamie Spencer at Yarmouth
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 30.6pts (+437.1%) over a mile at Yarmouth
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 32.69pts Jamie Spencer over a mile at Yarmouth

Obviously the Jamie Spencer angle is interesting, especially over a mile at Yarmouth, but I feel that particular stat lends more to the excellent record the jockey and trainer have together at that venue (a story for another day, perhaps?), but as for this piece...

Suggestion: Note, but don't necessarily back, David Simcock two-year-old flat debutants.

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All of which second team deliberation leaves us with just the Paul Cole and Eve Johnson Houghton runners, whose suggested angles combine for 11 winners from 22 runners (50% SR) and 144.84 pts (+658.6% ROI) as a juicy-looking - but less reliable based on sample size - supplement to our top trio's 66 winners from 293 runners (22.53% SR, +266.74 BSP, ROI of 91.04%).

Hopefully, we'll soon be able to "live trial" these angles. Fingers crossed and all that, but for now, thanks for reading and I'll be back with more soon.

 - CW