Tag Archive for: Nicky Richards

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2020

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Tuesday's pick was...

8.00 Southwell : Social City @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Mid-division, outpaced over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £18,768 to the winner...

Why?...

This 10 yr old mare is a lightly-raced veteran if that's not an oxymoron, having only raced 12 times (inc 4 wins) so far, including a 3 from 6 record over fences where she's hardly over-exposed. She won a similar (albeit open age) Class 2 handicap chase here over course and distance on her last outing just over two months when once again partnered by today's jockey, Brian Hughes.

She has 4 wins from 12 to date and here's how, under today's conditions, she got those wins...

  • all four came from 9 races at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 3 from 7 in handicaps
  • 3 from 4 at 3m-3m1f
  • 2 from 5 on soft
  • 2 from 5 under Brian Hughes
  • 2 from 2 at 3m
  • 1 from 1 at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 here at Doncaster (over C&D LTO at C2, of course)

Her jockey Brian Hughes is 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 18.1pts (+60.2% ROI) at this venue over jumps since the start of last year.

And she's trainer Nicky Richards' only runner of the day today and such solo travellers are 35 from 119 (29.4% SR) for 49.1pts (+41.3% ROI) since 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 34/110 (30.9%) for 49.8pts (+45.3%) for prizes up to £21k
  • 20/49 (40.8%) for 54.4pts (+111.1%) during Dec-March
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 30.05pts (+71.6%) on Soft/heavy
  • 14/50 928%) for 21.4pts (+42.8%) over fences
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 25pts (+166.6%) over 3 miles
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 4.4pts (+21.1%) from LTO winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 19.5pts (+130%) at Class 2
  • 4/10 (40%) for 11.87pts (+118.7%) from 10 yr olds
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 19.5pts (+324.5%) at Doncaster
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.36pts (+245.3%) in races for 10yo+ horses

...whilst in chases worth £4-21k on soft/heavy during Dec-March, they are 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 16.87pts (+105.4% ROI), including 2/3 at 3m, 2/3 from LTO winners, 1/1 from 10 yr olds and 1/1 at C2...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Marathon at 8.00am Wednesday, whilst Unibet were half a point bigger, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2020

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Friday's pick was...

3.50 Fakenham : Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Disputed lead until led 6th, headed before 10th, lost place 3 out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.30 Haydock :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3f on Heavy ground worth £9,747 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding finished 23111 over hurdles before switching to the larger obstacles where he is currently 1 from 2, after winning a heavy ground contest at Ayr almost four weeks ago on his last outing. Overall, to date, he is...

  • 4/5 wearing cheekpieces
  • 4/4 at 20-70 dslr
  • 2/3 in fields of fewer than 8 runners
  • 1/1 in a hcp
  • 1/1 on heavy
  • and 1/1 under today's jockey Sean Quinlan, who himself is...

...6 from 16 (37.5% SR) for 71.1pts (+444.6% ROI) when riding for trainer Nicky Richards in the last 12 months. two big priced winners are clearly affecting the P/L and the ROI here, but the Strike rate is excellent and those 16 races include the following of relevance here today...

  • 6/12 (50%) for 75.1pts (+625.8%) with 7-10 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 74.6pts (+677.9%) over fences
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 76.6pts (+850.8%) at 26-60 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 66.9pts (+608.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/10 (40%) for 37.3pts (+373.2%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 36.8pts (+1227.3%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 29.4pts (+980%) on heavy ground...

...whilst Quinlan + Richards + 7-10yo chasers at 26-60 dslr = 5/6 (83.3% SR) for 79.6pts (+1326.2% ROI).

Trainer Nicky Richards' horses don't mind a bit of mud either (just as well!), as his handicap chasers are 19 from 54 (35.2% SR) for 62.4pts (+115.6% ROI) backed blindly on heavy ground since the start of 2013, including of note today...

  • 19/48 (39.6%) for 68.4pts (+142.6%) in faces with fewer than 10 runners
  • 17/41 (41.5%) for 66.8pts (+162.9%) within 2 months of their last run
  • 17/39 (43.6%) for 65.6pts (+168.1%) over 2m to 3m
  • 16/37 (43.2%) for 34.3pts (+92.6%) in races worth £4-10.5k
  • 12/29 (41.4%) for 25.4pts (+87.7%) at Class 3
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 18.1pts (+95%) stepped up in trip by 1-4 furlongs
  • 5/12 941.7%) for 9.35pts (+77.9%) with LTO winners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.7pts (+195.7%) in the North West
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 30.4pts (+1520%) for our aforementioned jockey, Sean Quinlan...

...and Class 3 + 2m-3m + £4-10.5k + 1-60dslr + 1-9 runners = 11/17 (64.7%) for 32.3pts (+189.8%) including...

  • 4 from 6 stepped up by 1-4f
  • 3 from 4 LTO winners
  • 1 from 1 LTO winners stepped up 1-4f
  • 1 from 1 in the North West...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Glinger Flame @ 6/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.40am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.30 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st December 2019

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Friday's pick was...

4.20 Southwell : Atwaar @ 6/1 BOG non-runner (meeting abandoned after the refund cut-off point)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.40 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3,  Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,213 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding comes here on the back of four straight wins, a run of form that represents his entire record from the last winter season and his entire chasing career to date. He was last seen winning by five lengths over much further (3m1f) on similarly soft ground and now attempts to pick up where he left off some 41 weeks ago.

I'm not too concerned about the layoff, as the first of those four wins came a year and a day ago, having been off the track for 36 weeks, so he's expected to go well fresh again today and with regards to his so-far perfect 4 from 4 record over fences...

  • he's 3/3 on Soft ground, the other win was on heavy
  • he has won over 2m4f previously, but has the stamina to stay 3m1f
  • today's jockey Brian Hughes has ridden all four wins
  • all four wins were on left handed tracks
  • he's 3 from 3 as a 7 yr old

Both trainer Nicky Richards and jockey Brian Hughes have good records here at Newcastle and that's a fairly well worn statistical path and is denoted on your racecard with the green icons, so I'm not going there today. Instead, I'm hopefully going to tell you something you don't already know about Glittering Love's suitability for the task, based on his breeding.

He's by Winged Love, whose offspring are 57 from 291 (19.6% SR) for 68.9pts (+23.7% ROI) in UK NH handicaps on Soft ground or "worse" over the last 5 years, including of note/relevance today...

  • 53/216 (24.5%) for 115.9pts (+53.7%) at odds of 6/5 to 12/1
  • 44/208 (21.2%) for 59.2pts (+28.5%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 44/190 (23.2%) for 62.2pts (+32.8%) with horses younger than 9 yrs old
  • 36/191 (18.9%) for 60.7pts (+31.8%) on soft ground
  • 33/178 (18.5%) for 55.2pts (+31%) over fences
  • 30/107 (28%) for 78.8pts (+73.6%) during December & January
  • 14/58 (24.1%) for 38.0pts (+65.6%) over 2m4f-2m4.5f
  • 9/16 (56.25%) for 18.4pts (+115.2%) trained by Nicky Richards
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 21.4pts (+178.7%) here at Newcastle
  • and 5 from 6 (83.3%) for 9.3pts (+154.7%) with Brian Hughes in the saddle...

...whilst if you wanted a 25-30 picks per year micro-system based around the above that used just 47% of the original 291 bets, but generated nearly 74% of the winners and almost doubled the profits, then 5-11 yr olds sent off at 6/5 to 12/1 at Classes 2 to 5 during November to February are 42 from 137 (30.7% SR) for 135.6pts at an ROI of 99%...

...sending us off for Christmas with...a 1pt win bet on Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG as was offered by BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!