Tag Archive for: Newbury racecourse

Stat of the Day, 8th February 2020

/in /by

Friday's pick was...

3.05 Southwell : Thunderoad @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Held up in touch on outside, headway into 2nd over 3f out, challenged 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, no extra towards finish) - the lack of a finish showed why he's now 0/19.

Saturday's pick runs in the...

4.10 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7½f on Good ground worth £8,058 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was quite well beaten back in fourth place last time out, four weeks ago, but in his defence that was a Grade 2 contest where he was unable to run his usual race from the front, as he had done when winning a Class 3 race at Plumpton two starts ago, under today's jockey Jonjo O'Neill (Jnr).

Back down at Class 3 and reunited with Jonjo, I'd expect him to be a different proposition today.

Jonjo is riding well of late and his 3 wins from 12 (25% SR) over the last week isn't a purple patch, as not only is he 13 from 53 (24.5%) over the past month, he;s also 5 from 18 (27.8% SR) for 24pts (+133.3% ROI) in handicaps here at Newbury over the last 12 months, including of relevance today...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 30pts (+250%) at odds shorter than 12/1
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 8.25pts (+91.7%) over fences
  • 3/6 (50%) for 27.9pts (+465.4%) at 2m4½f to 3m
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.14pts (+202.8%) at Class 3

...whilst trainer Colin Tizzard's Newbury handicappers sent off at 12/1 and shorter since the start of 2016 are 12 from 34 (35.3% SR) for 44.4pts (+130.6% ROI) : all males. Now, despite 34 runners not being a huge number to work from, there are actually plenty of different successful/profitable angles to be derived, suggesting conditions might be in our pick's favour today, as of the 34 original qualifiers...

  • 12/25 (48%) for 53.4pts (+213.6%) after at least 3 weeks rest
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 41.5pts (+143.2%) over fences
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 48.1pts (+184.9%) at the ages of 6-10
  • 11/26 (42.3%) for 47.6pts (+183.2%) in 4-12 runner contests
  • 9/17 (52.9%) for 34.3pts (+201.6%) in races worth £6-12k
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.4pts (+155.2%) at Class 3
  • 8/12 (66.6%) for 24pts (+200%) at odds of 5/1 or shorter
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 25.6pts (+142.4%) from those either beaten by 10 lengths or more LTO or who didn't finish
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 13pts (+117.9%) with class droppers
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 13.67pts (+227.8%) on Good ground...

...and if you wanted a composite micro from the above (mindful of a dilution of numbers, of course), you could try 5-10 yr olds returning from 3+ weeks rest to run in a 4-12 runner chase worth £6-12k for 8 winners from 13 (61.5% SR), all at Class 3 and giving 30.4pts profit at an ROI of 233.8%, including...

  • 6/8 (75%) for 17.47pts (+218.3%) at 5/1 or shorter
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 23pts (+328.4%) from those defeated by 10L+ or DNF last time out
  • 4/4 (100%) for 15.67pts (+391.6%) on Good ground
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 2,54pts (+63.5%) from class droppers...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Highest Sun @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet, BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th December 2019

/in /by

Friday's pick was...

5.10 Wolverhampton : Classic Design @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 7/2 (Went right start, soon tracked leader, led narrowly over 1f out, ridden and headed inside final furlong, no extra)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.35 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Novices Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m7f on soft ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding is 4 from 9 so far and got off the mark (at just the second time of asking) over fences last time out when winning by a mere 21 lengths eighteen days ago. That was over 2m4f on heavy ground at Uttoxeter and whilst this is 3f further for his handicap debut, the ground will ride slightly easier today, plus he has stayed 3m over hurdles on soft ground, whilst Richard Johnson retains the ride today.

Our race card icons (C5) suggest that both the aforementioned jockey and the trainer, Philip Hobbs have decent records on this track, so I'll take that as read and whilst keeping today's explanation fairly simple, I'll explore two other angles briefly for you.

Firstly, people of a certain age might remember "...it's Friday, it's five to five, it's Crackerjack...". Well along those lines: "...it's Saturday, it's a handicap and it's Hobbs & Johnson!"

Basically, this trainer/jockey combo are 46 from 288 (16% SR) for 16.4pts (+5.7% ROI) backed blindly in handicaps on Saturdays over the last six years. A good strike rate that's blindly profitable is always a decent starting point for a way in and of interest from those 288 runners, we have...

  • 44/242 (18.2%) for 27.1pts (+11.2%) at odds of Evens to 10/1
  • 30/170 (17.7%) for 32.3pts (+19%) over fences
  • 24/105 (22.9%) for 58.4pts (+55.6%) from November to January
  • and 15/68 (22.1%) for 12.7pts (+18.6%) at Class 3...

...whilst chasers sent off at Evens to 10/1 during November to January are 17/53 (32.1% SR) for 66.2pts (+124.9% ROI), including 5/14 935.7%) for 19.6pts (+139.8%) at Class 3.

Secondly, as our pick is making a handicap bow, it's worth noting that Philip Hobbs is having a good year with such runners, as his handicap debutants are 8 from 20 (40% SR) for 14.56pts (+72.8% ROI) in 2019 and these include...

  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 8.6pts (+61.5%) from LTO winners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 12.4pts (+124%) in fields of 10-13 runners
  • 5/7 (71.4%) for 16.5pts (+235.5%) from 6 yr olds
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 3.8pts (+42.1%) with Richard Johnson in the saddle...

...whilst 6 yr old LTO winners in fields of 10-13 runners are 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 6.3pts (+210% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Tidal Flow @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 4.50pm on Friday, although I'm on with Hills (non-BOG until raceday) at 4/1. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!