Tag Archive for: Leicester Racecourse

Stat of the Day, 13th February 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.20 Southwell : Liamba @ 9/2 BOG 4th at 6/1 (Led, headed over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m7f on Soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner...

Why?...

This 11 yr old mare is a consistent/hardy sort and that might be all that's needed here. She recorded six consecutive top 3 finishes prior to struggling under a 3lb claimer last time out. Regular jockey Paddy Brennan is back in the saddle today and with a 2lb easing of her mark, I'd expect more from her today.

She's Fergal O'Brien's only runner of the day and he's 6 from 24 (25% SR) for 40.9pts (+163.6% ROI) in handicap chases here at Leicester since the start of 2015, including of relevance today...

  • 6/22 (27.3%) for 43.9pts (+199.5%) in races worth £4-10k
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 51.9pts (+370.5%) with runners returning from 3 to 8 weeks rest
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 43.2pts (+332.2%) over trips of 2m6.5f to 2m7.5f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 33.1pts (+254.3%) with Paddy Brennan in the saddle
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.9pts (+182.1%) on Soft ground

...whilst those competing for £4-10k after 3-8 weeks rest are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 52.9pts (+406.7% ROI), from which...

  • Paddy Brennan is 4/7 (57.1%) for 39.1pts (+557.8%)
  • those racing over 2m6.5f to 2m7.5f are 4/6 (66.6%) for 50.2pts (+836.6%)
  • and on soft ground : 2/5 (40%) for 11.9pts (+238.5%)

Meanwhile, more generally, Fergal O'Brien's handicap chasers sent off at odds ranging from 2/1 to 11/1 during February to April inclusive are 16 from 80 (20% SR) for 35.8pts (+44.7% ROI) since Feb 1st 2016, including...

  • 11/53 (20.8%) for 34.4pts (+64.8%) after 16-60 days off track
  • 11/46 (23.9%) for 30pts (+65.2%) under Paddy Brennan
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 27.7pts (+67.6%) over 2m6.5f to 3m2f
  • and 8/35 (22.9%) for 23.5pts (+67.2%) from Fergal's only runner at the track that day...

...and there has been 8 horses that, like today's pick, tick all four of the above boxes and they have yielded 3 winners (37.5% SR) and 15.7pts (+196.4% ROI) profit including one from one here at Leicester...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Thursday with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th January 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

5.45 Kempton : Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 9/1 (Prominent, ridden over 2f out, no extra inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m  on Good to Soft ground worth £6,108 to the winner...

Why?...

Non-runner! Meeting abandoned...

...but it would have been...a 1pt win bet on Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Unibet & Hills (but please check your BOG status first) at 8.10am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!