Tag Archive for: Kerry Lee

Kestrel hits Hereford target after pre-race drama

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Kestrel Valley brought trainer Kerry Lee both pleasure and pain in victory at Hereford on Friday.

Lee had led the nine-year-old down the chute to the track ahead of the Follow @bresbet On Twitter Novices’ Handicap Chase, but the mare spooked and the handler was pulled over, landing on her face.

Though shaken and sporting nasty grazes to her right eye and hands, she recovered her composure to welcome home the 6-5 favourite, who cruised to a 34-length success.

Lee said: “It is not her fault. It is just an occupational hazard. I went to lead her on to the course and she basically launched and took me with her. I hit these lovely rubber tiles and with your cheekbone, it can hurt a bit.”

She added: “I’m fine. At least she won. I’ll be all right. Isn’t it brilliant to see her doing well? She is really enjoying racing.

“It was nice to put back-to-back wins together. I knew she was well, knew she was a happy horse and we came here rather than Exeter on Sunday. It was either a 16-grand race or a nine-grand race. What are you going to do?

“We are still in 0-100 company and we can’t get carried away. It is difficult to start getting too confident. It is good to get a filly on an upward curve.”

On Ladies Day, Venetia Williams was on the mark with Jikala, who looked to be sauntering to success in the Bresbet: Back To Bookmaking Juvenile Maiden Hurdle under 7lb claimer Ned Fox, only to idle at the end of the two-mile affair.

Jikala/Hereford
Jikala did well to hold on to give Venetia Williams another win at her local track (Simon Milham/PA)

After Jikala held off Charles St to score by a short head, Williams said: “She didn’t enjoy herself at Sandown last time, which was a stronger race. When they turned for home and kicked in deep ground, she didn’t enjoy it.

“We thought we’d come here today and kick on.”

Anthony Honeyball’s string is in great heart and I Giorni followed up her recent third in a novice hurdle at Wincanton in the Cazoo Mares’ Novices’ Handicap under Rex Dingle, while David Bridgewater struck in the two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase with Pawpaw.

Nemean Lion roars to Premier victory for Kerry Lee

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Sandown third Nemean Lion gave the Tolworth Hurdle form a boost as he got the better of the fourth on that occasion, Colonel Harry, to pick up the bet365 Premier Novices’ Hurdle at Kelso.

The Kerry Lee-trained six-year-old was the best part of three lengths ahead of Colonel Harry when they clashed on deep ground in January and Richard Patrick was content to bide his time in mid-division aboard the 4-1 winner as Jamie Snowden’s 7-2 favourite attempted to make all.

Gavin Sheehan upped the tempo after three out as the pack began to swarm and he did a good job of putting the field under pressure and beating off most of the opposition as he swung into the straight still in command of the contest.

However, old adversary Nemean Lion was still travelling and having jumped the last matching strides, a slight error from Colonel Harry allowed the Will Roseff-owned gelding to strike the front and it was he who roared loudest at the finish to come home the best part of two lengths clear.

Lee said: “We’re absolutely delighted with the horse. It took us seven hours to get here, but it was absolutely worth it.

“He came here with a good performance under his belt and we were hopeful. It was a good, solid performance from him.

“Colonel Harry was one of the big dangers, I know they were sweet on their horse, and it was interesting that the Grade One horses did come to the fore.

“We’ve clearly got a very nice horse on our hands. I think he appreciated the track. I don’t think the distance was an issue, I just think he didn’t relish the hill at Sandown and Kelso is a little bit kinder in that respect.”

The winner holds an entry for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival with Betfair going 25-1 from 50s for the Prestbury Park opener, but Lee admits that looks unlikely at present.

She added: “I would say on two levels that Cheltenham is not very likely. First of all the ground, he’s quite a fragile horse and we have to be very careful – we came to Kelso for that reason, for the ground.

“I don’t think the ground at Cheltenham will suit and it would be very quick on him.

“I won’t be pushing for Cheltenham but that said, if it came up soft and he was bouncing, then we might consider it.

“We will be looking to Aintree, Fairyhouse and Punchestown, keeping our options open.”

Stat of the Day, 23rd January 2020

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Wednesday's pick was...

4.30 Kempton : Atalanta Queen @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 11/4 (led, ridden well over 1f out, headed 1f out, well held when lost 2nd 100 yards out, weakened towards finish)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Storm Control @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £7,408 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding returns to action after a 40-day break, ahead of which he made the frame in three of his last four starts, winning twice and filling the runner-up berth on another occasion. He was a winner last time in another Class 3, soft ground Handicap Chase and now will seek to continue the recent good form of his stablemates...

...trained by Kerry Lee. It's fair to say that the yard has been quiet of late. Her first runners of the year appeared on 11th January and shes only had five out so far this year, but those runners do boast a 2 from 4 return over fences with both wins coming from 3 soft ground efforts.

More longer-term, though, Kerry's handicap chasers who won a handicap chase LTO are 10 from 36 (27.8% SR) for 27.1pts (+75.2% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2016 and they're really good figures for a "set, bet and forget" angle if you wanted one. I rarely blanket bet an angle and attempt to weed out some of the losers without disposing of too many winners, so based on the above stat, here's my top 10 filters...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 32.5pts (+112.2%) at Evens to 9/1
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 21.75pts (+80.5%) after 16-60 days off track
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 31.4pts (+142.7%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 29pts (+132%) from December to March
  • 8/20 (40%) for 28.75pts (+143.8%) with runners aged 7-10 yrs old
  • 7/17 (41.2%) for 38pts (+223.6%) off a mark (OR) of 126-145
  • 6/20 (30%) for 11.1pts (+55.5%) over trips of 2m to 2m6f
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 19.5pts (+139.5%) in races worth £4-10k
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 32.6pts (+296.1%) at Class 3
  • and 5/15 (33.3%) for 15.6pts (+104%) on soft ground...

...whilst 7-10 yr olds sent off at Evens to 13/2 in 5-10 runner contests during October to March after 16-60 days off track are 5 from 5 (100% SR) for 26.42pts (+528.4% ROI), including 4 off marks of 126-145, 3 at 2m-2m6f, 3 in races worth less than £10k, 2 at Class 3 and 2 on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Storm Control @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Hills at 8.10am Thursday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Wetherby

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!