Tag Archive for: Kempton racecourse

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2020

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, led and edged left entering final furlong, ran on under pressure, headed last strides)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old male is one of only two former course and distance winners in today's contest and showed signs of a return to form when a runner-up at this class, track and trip last time out fifteen days ago.

His record here is good, making the frame 8 times (57.1%) from 14 attempts, including four wins (28.6% SR) that have generated 29.22pts profit at an ROI of some 208.7% from which he is...

  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.22pts (+292.9%) off today's mark of 76 or lower
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.41pts (+163%) when sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 8/1
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.04pts (+167.4%) at Class 4
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.04pts (+167.4%) over course and distance
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 24.18pts (+806%) within 15 days of his last run
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 4.22pts (+211%) in February

Jockey Ben Curtis takes the ride for the first time today and Ben is red hot right now, winning on 6 of his 19 (31.6% SR) mounts over the last four days and whilst he rarely rides for trainer Tony Carroll, the pair were 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 10.75pts (+179.1% ROI) together in January, including 2 from 4 (50%) for 8.33pts (+208.2%) on handicaps and 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.67pts (+483.5%) beyond a mile...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 8.05am Tuesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th January 2020

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

4.10 Newcastle : Ladronne @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 (Held up and behind, switched right before not fluent 3 out, closed a little after 2 out, not fluent and still plenty to do last, ridden final 100 yards and finished with a flourish to lead close home) - I thought the jockey rode a superb race on debut.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding was narrowly defeated by a short head last time out in another Class 4 handicap at Chelmsford 18 days ago. He was only headed in the final strides and gets to go off the same mark today, but importantly drops back in trip to what I feel is his optimum 7f distance. That mere drop in trip should be all it needs to get him back to winning ways and the improvements of an already excellent record on the A/W.

He has made the frame in 9 of 13 (69.2%) starts on the all-weather, winning 6 times (46.2% SR) with those wins yielding 36.7pts (+282.2% ROI) profit. Under today's conditions, those 13 races have produced the following...

  • 6 wins and 3 places from 10 after a break of 2-7 weeks
  • 6 wins, 2 places from 9 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 11 on Polytrack
  • 5 wins, 1 place from 8 over the 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 9 wearing a tongue tie
  • 4 wins, 1 place from 7 at odds shorter than 4/1
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 4 in Class 4 races worth over £6k
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Kempton
  • 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance
  • and 1 from 1 under today's jockey PJ McDonald...

...whilst in his six races over 7f on Polytrack in fields of 8-11 runners after breaks of 2 to 7 weeks, Glenn Coco has made the frame 5 times (83.3%), winning 4 times (66.6% SR) for returns of 31.43pts at an ROI of 523.84%.

Trainer Stuart Williams is in good form right now with three winners and a placer from his four runners over the last week, including 2 from 2 here at Kempton and 1 from 1 with jockey PJ McDonald (also here at Kempton) and he has a good record when using today's jockey on the A/W winning 16 of 64 (25% SR) for 25.06pts (+39.2% ROI), including...

  • 15/50 (30%) for 31.5pts (+63%) in fields of 5-11 runners
  • 11/44 (25%) for 7.38pts (+16.8%) in races worth up to £8k
  • 10/31 (32.3%) for 12.9pts (+41.5%) in 5-11 runner races worth up to £8k
  • 8/28 (28.6%) for 24.2pts (+86.4%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 28.8pts (+106.6%) over 6/7f
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 10.26pts (+93.3%) here at Kempton...

...leading to...a 1pt win bet on Glenn Coco @ 7/2 BOG as was available at 8.05am Wednesday morning from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet (but please check your BOG status first) with plenty of 10/3 offered elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd January 2020

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

1.30 Exeter : Golden Whisky @ 5/1 BOG non-runner (withdrawn at 11.27am due to the going)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 6, A/W Classified Stakes for 4yo+ over 1m on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

Pretty low grade/quality stuff here today, where the same horses seem to take turns at beating each other. Despite that, our 5 yr old mare is one of the more consistent types at this level and has made the frame four times from her last six efforts, including one win and she was a runner-up when last seen a week ago, plus she was a winner the last time she ran in non-handicap company.

Her record on the A/W is better than most at this level with a 50% place strike rate after 3 wins (21.4% SR) and 4 places from 14, including the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 12 at Class 6
  • 3 wins, 4 places from 10 within four weeks of her last run
  • 3 wins, 2 places from 9 off a mark (OR) of 46-50
  • 3 wins from 8 in fields of 12 or more runners
  • and 2 wins, 3 places from 7 over a one mile trip...

...whilst in Class 6, 12-14 runner contests off 46-50 within four weeks of her last run, she is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 146.45pts (+2929% ROI) including 2/3 (66.6%) for 129.6pts (+4320%) over a mile. The P/L and ROI here are skewed by a 50/1 winner paying 130/1 at betfair SP, but the strike rates are still more than valid!

Her trainer Robyn Brisland is 4 from 16 (25% SR) over the last fortnight and the yard's horses seem to go well under today's jockey Kieran O'Neill, winning 3 of 10 in the last fortnight and 6 of 23 (26.1% SR) for 11.91pts (+51.8% ROI) so far this year, including...

  • 6/10 (60%) for 24.91pts (+249.1%) at odds of 6/4 to 10/1
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 10.07pts (+59.2%) at 5f to 1m
  • 4/14 (28.6%) for 13.07pts (+93.3%) at Class 6
  • and 4/6 (66.6%) for 21.07pts (+351.1%) at 6/4 to 10/1 in Class 6 contests at 5f to 1m.

And with this mare turning out pretty soon after her recent runner-up finish LTO, it might be of interest to know that Robyn Brisland's runners are 16 from 69 (23.2% SR) for 62.3pts (+90.3%) within 4-10 days of their last run with All-Weather contests yielding 15 from 50 (30%) and 68.7pts (+137.4%) profit.

And from those 50 A/W runners quickly turned back out, Robyn is...

  • 10/25 (40%) for 70.9pts (+283.6%) with females
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 36.1pts (+150.3%) on Polytrack
  • 8/27 (29.6%) for 53.4pts (+197.9%) with 4/5 yr olds
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.2pts (+154.2%) lost by a neck to 3 lengths LTO
  • 7/27 (25.9%) for 39pts (+144.4%) over 5f to 1m
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 39.5pts (+263%) from females on Polytrack
  • 5/14 (35.7%) for 7.43pts (+53%) in January
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 17pts (+188.8%) from LTO runners-up
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) for 6.41pts (+45.8%) with Kieran O'Neill in the saddle...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Atalanta Queen @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Wednesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms seemed to be moving out towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 8th January 2020

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

4.15 Southwell : Cold Harbour @ 10/3 BOG WON at 3/1 (Held up towards rear, headway over 3f out, led over 2f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well towards finish)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 7f  on Standard To Slow polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3 yr old filly is making just her fourth start today and her handicap debut having already made the frame twice including finishing third last time out almost ten weeks ago.

Her name kept cropping up when I was going through the various reports I use each evening to find my picks, so I'm just going to briefly touch upon three of the relevant angles for today.

We'll start with an obvious one, trainer William Haggas' record here at Kempton, where his A/W handicappers sent off at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 are 13 from 45 (28.9% SR) for 17.5pts (+38.9% ROI) over the last four years, from which those racing in 3yo races are 5/14 (35.7%) for 5.07pts (+36.2%).

Next we have Mr Haggas' A/W handicappers who have only had one outing in the previous three months and these runners are 12 from 33 (36.4% SR) for 15.9pts (+48.2% ROI)

And as this filly is making her handicap bow today, I'll round this off by saying that the yard's handicap debutants sent off at 2/1 or longer over the last three years are 31 from 138 (22.5% SR) for 49.1pts (+35.6% ROI), including the following of relevance/note today...

  • 19/73 (26%) for 31.6pts (+43.3%) over 7f to 1m
  • 19/56 (33.9%) for 65.2pts (+116.4%) at 26-120 days since last run
  • 12/31 (38.7%) for 24.6pts (+79.5%) on the A/W
  • 10/28 (35.7%) for 17.6pts (+62.8%) at Class 5
  • 9/36 (25%) for 25.1pts (+69.7%) from those placed 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 6.8pts (+97.2%) here at Kempton...

...whilst those racing over 7f-1m on the A/W at 26-120 dslr are 5 from 8 (62.5% SR) for 12.24pts (+153% ROI), a stat that also applies to Qaabil who runs for Mr Haagas in the 4.00 at Newcastle and is currently available at 7/2 BOG...

...but I've opted for...a 1pt win bet on Qaseeda @ 5/2 BOG as was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet (and also 11/4 at Hills, but please check your BOG status there first) at 8.10am on Wednesday. This is a little shorter than I normally post, but I think there might be a slight drift this morning if Adam Kirby's ride attracts money. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th December 2019

/in /by

Saturday's pick was...

1.40 Newcastle : Glittering Love @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2 (Tracked leaders, close up on inside when fell 5 out)

Boxing Day's pick runs in the...

1.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 3, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £16,245 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding was a winner LTO, 8 days ago, triumphant on similarly soft ground at Ludlow in another Class 3 handicap chase under today's jockey, Charlie Deutsch.

He's by Walk In The Park, whose soft ground handicap chasers are 6 from 19 (31.6%) SR) for 26.4pts (+138.9% ROI) over the last four years, including...

  • 6/15 (40%) for 30.4pts (+202.6%) at 2m1.5f to 3m2f
  • 6/13 (46.2%) for 32.4pts (+249.1%) at 2/1 to 10/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.05pts (+72.2%) at Class 3
  • and 3 from 4 (75%) for 8.05pts (+201.3%) when all three of the above are in play as they are today.

This horse hails from the in-form Venetia Williams yard, one that thrives at this time of year and does well in poorer conditions. In fact, Venetia's runners are 13 from 26 (50% SR) for 31.6pts (+121.6% ROI) since the morning of the 11th December, whilst more generally over the last five Decembers, her Class 2 to 4 handicappers are 41/160 (25.6% SR) for 101.9pts (+63.7% ROI), including...

  • 38/141 (27%) for 108.9pts (+77.3%) from male runners
  • 35/102 (34.3%) for 121.7pts (+119.3%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 34/120 (28.3%) for 103.9pts (+86.6%) in races worth £4k to £17k to the winner
  • 28/85 (32.9%) for 108.7pts (+127.9%) over 2m3f to 2m7.5f
  • 28/71 (39.4%) for 62.2pts (+87.6%) at 2/1 to 5/1
  • 20/73 (27.4%) for 54.4pts (+74.5%) on Soft ground
  • 17/60 (28.3%) for 25.1pts (+41.9%) under Charlie Deutsch
  • and 16/73 (21.9%) for 38.9pts (+53.3%) at Class 3...

...whilst 4-7 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 5/1 over 2m3f to 2m7.5f chasing pots of £4 to 17k are 14/22 (63.6% SR) for 44.8pts (+203.6% ROI) and these include 8/13 (61.5%) for Charlie Deutsch, 7/13 (53.9%) at Class 3, 7/10 (70%) on soft ground and 3 from 4 (75%) with Charlie riding a Class 3 runner on soft ground...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Roll Again @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 6.50pm on Christmas Day. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2019

/in /by

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Led until 5th, lost place 5 out, well beaten before 3 out )

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a runner-up at Lingfield just 4 days ago and gets the opportunity to go one better off the same mark today. He had the worst of the draw at the weekend, but has a more favourable stall today and is expected to go well again.

Trainer Lee Carter's horses are in great form, all eight runners over the last fortnight have made the frame, with two of them taking Gold, including a win and a place from two efforts here at Kempton.

His record with quick returners is decent, especially in similar circumstances to today, as...

...since the start of 2016, Lee Carter's Class 6 A/W handicappers sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 16/1 after less than three weeks rest are 11 from 49 (22.5% SR) for 77.5pts (+158.1% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 76.3pts (+200.8%) from male runners
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+281.1%) from 5-9 yr olds

...whilst 5-9 yr old males are 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) for 86.3pts (+308.3% ROI) and you could stop there and back all of them, but if you wanted to drill down further...

  • 5 yr olds are 5/12 (41.7%) for 41.7pts (+347.7%)
  • LTO runners-up are 5/8 (62.5%) for 47.4pts (+592.4%)
  • over 7f, it's 3/9 (33.3%) for 33.8pts (+375.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 36.8pts (+613%) over 7 furlongs
  • LTO runners-up are 3/5 (60%) for 37.8pts (+756%) over 7f
  • 5yr olds are 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) after finishing second LTO
  • and 5yr old, LTO runners-up are also 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) over a 7f trip...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 and SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!