Tag Archive for: Jessica Harrington

Peking Opera performance sets up bigger and better things

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Derby entrant Peking Opera picked up where he left off with a smart victory in the Listed Irish Stallion Farms EBF Yeats Stakes at Naas.

Aidan O’Brien’s Galileo colt ended his two-year-old season with a win in a one-mile Leopardstown maiden that has produced several subsequent winners.

Running for the first time this term he was the 5-2 favourite under Seamie Heffernan and duly went on to prove his stamina with a half-length triumph markedly up in trip to a mile and five furlongs.

Stable representative Chris Armstrong said: “The form of his Leopardstown race over a mile has worked out well.

“He has done well over the winter and is a horse that is going to stay very well.

“This was a lovely race to start him off in and he is one to look forward to going forward over a staying trip.

“He could be one for something like the Queen’s Vase over one mile and six furlongs at Ascot. You could bring him back a fraction to one mile and four furlongs

“He has good options and he did well to win on seasonal debut.”

When asked about the Derby entries, he replied: “He has (those entries) and it is an option for him. He is versatile between a mile and four furlongs and a mile and six.”

Jessica Harrington’s Givemethebeatboys struck on debut to land the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden under Shane Foley.

The Bungle Inthejungle colt was a 12-1 chance and raced in the group travelling down the centre of the track, eventually making up a huge amount of ground in the final furlong to prevail by three quarters of a length.

Foley said: “If he hadn’t run well today, we would have been scratching our heads a bit! We have had a few two-year-olds disappoint, so we are glad he did that.

“We took him out the last couple of times because of ground and I was adamant that I think he is a good horse, and good horses handle any ground. He’ll be better on better ground, he couldn’t really quicken in it (today).

“I thought the race was gone, but his class got him through.

“The pace was on the far side and he had to do a bit of running to get on top, but the good ones can get you out of trouble!”

When asked if he sees him as a Royal Ascot horse, he replied: “Definitely I’d say, and Con (Marnane, owner) likes Ascot.”

Sprewell powers into Derby reckoning with Leopardstown win

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Jessica Harrington could have a Betfred Derby contender on her hands after Sprewell recorded an imperious victory in the Derby Trial Stakes at Leopardstown.

Following two respectable runs in maidens last term, the son of Churchill broke his duck when winning a heavy ground four-runner event at Naas in March.

That win came over a mile, but he thrived for the move up to 10 furlong here – quickening clear from Proud And Regal and Londoner shortly after a furlong out and he was still lengthening away from the running-on second Up And Under in the closing stages to finish three lengths to the good.

He was cut from 20-1 from 50-1 for the Epsom Classic on June 3 by Betfair, but the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly a day later also appears an option for the upwardly mobile colt.

“We’re very, very happy. We kind of let him down after he won in Naas and he got a bit fat on us so we had to be quite hard on him the last 10 days and he’s come good today,” said Kate Harrington, assistant trainer to her mother.

“He’s got fancy entries everywhere. I know it would be the owner’s dream to go to the English Derby, but we’ll see how he comes out of this. France could be an option as he is very good on soft going.

Sprewell and connections after winning the Derby Trial Stakes
Sprewell and connections after winning the Derby Trial Stakes (PA)

“Mum and Khalid (Abdul Rahaim) will have a chat and see where we go from here. I think he’s a proper horse and as good as we’ve ever had at that distance.

“I’d say the further he goes the better he’s going to get. He’s a really exciting horse and personally I think he’s only 80 per cent there and there is a good bit more improvement.”

The 6-4 favourite Proud And Regal kept on well for third and trainer Donnacha O’Brien was pleased to see his Group One-winning juvenile blow away the cobwebs.

He said: “I thought he ran well and the first run of the year he might have got a bit tired. The last furlong he got a bit of a bump and he might have just had a blow.

“I thought it was a satisfactory run and we’ll make a plan from here.

“He was just a little bit rusty for his first run of the year.”

Harrington readying Flat team as season kicks into gear

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Jessica Harrington is readying a team of Flat horses for the turf season that is just beginning to gain pace.

Nearing the end of treatment for breast cancer, Harrington is very much looking forward as plans are made for her 2023 cohort.

Harrington had a successful 2022, with Magical Lagoon winning both the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Irish Oaks.

Trevaunance was a continental success story and landed both the Prix de Psyche and Prix de la Nonette at Deauville before finishing eighth in the Prix de l’Opera at ParisLongchamp.

More Group One outings are planned for this season, as Harrington said: “She was a great servant last year in Deauville, she won a Group Three and a Group Two and wasn’t disgraced in the Group One Prix de l’Opera at Longchamp.

“She is going to start off in the Mooresbridge at the Curragh on May 1, but her main aim for the first half of the season is going to be the Pretty Polly.”

Harrington is known to be one of the best producers of fillies in the sport and she has a promising string of three-year-olds who had good juvenile seasons and now have high aims for the year ahead.

Sounds Of Heaven was a maiden winner and is on the Guineas trail, as is Group One third Eternal Silence.

Of the former, Harrington said: “She was impressive when winning her maiden at Leopardstown last season. She has got very strong, we had a tiny setback with her in January time but she is 100 per cent now and heads to the Guineas trial at the beginning of May.”

Of Eternal Silence, she added: “She is still maiden but she was third in the Moyglare last year.

“She is working very nicely and we are just waiting for some nice ground with her to hopefully break her maiden tag en route to the Guineas.

“However, if the ground does not come right for her she will go straight to the Guineas.”

Harrington has two entries in the Irish 2,000 Guineas in Quar Shamar and Bold Discovery, the latter of whom was second to Aidan O’Brien’s Hans Andersen in the 2,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown earlier this month.

The trainer said: “He had a very nice run in the Guineas trial at Leopardstown. He will go to the Curragh for the Tetrarch on May Bank Holiday weekend.”

‘I feel great’ – Jessica Harrington has much to be thankful for

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Jessica Harrington is remaining positive in the face of adversity as she continues to receive treatment for breast cancer.

The dual-purpose trainer, both a Classic and Cheltenham Festival winner, was diagnosed in October last year and spoke publicly about her health for the first time earlier this year.

Harrington, 76, is currently undergoing chemotherapy but has the bulk of the treatment behind her and is looking ahead to the new Flat season now the side-effects are beginning to subside.

“They got the medication to make me feel well right, whereas the three weeks before that I thought I’d died,” she said.

“This time it’s been absolutely great and I feel great, last night I went to bed and I was actually physically tired instead of sick tired and that was fantastic.

Jessica Harrington with Viareggio at the Curragh
Jessica Harrington with Viareggio at the Curragh (Brian Lawless/PA)

“It’s a big fright. It all happened really quickly. I said ‘all right, fine’, I didn’t really think about it, I just got on with it.

“Now I look back at it, when I’ve managed the last treatment on Monday I will have had 16 goes at chemo. Looking back I think, ‘how did I do that?’. My worst thing has been feeling sick.”

The racing community and the team at Harrington’s Kildare stable have rallied around the trainer, with daughters Emma and Kate stepping up to ensure the yard continues to run smoothly.

“Everyone’s been so kind, it is unbelievable how kind people are,” Harrington said.

“No one really knew until after Christmas, it was the beginning of February when I finally put it out there that I was on the sick list. People have been so kind, everyone round here has been so kind and are looking after me, it’s been fantastic.

Jessica and Kate Harrington
Jessica and Kate Harrington (PA)

“Kate’s been amazing, she hasn’t taken a day off since she went to Australia before Christmas. She’s taking two weeks off in the second week of May, as soon as she thinks I’m all right.

“Emma and Richie (Galway, Emma’s husband) and all the staff here, they’ve been fantastic, they’ve all co-operated and got on with their jobs and never complained. ”

Harrington has had some hospital stays throughout the course of her treatment but has never considered stepping back from the business more permanently during the illness.

She said: “I was in hospital for four days after Christmas and six days in February, then I didn’t know what the hell was going on. I came back and thought ‘oh, that one looks a bit better. That one looks all right!’.

“That’s a great thing, when you aren’t there and then you see a difference in them.”

Jessica and Kate Harrington with jockey Shane Foley
Jessica and Kate Harrington with jockey Shane Foley (Brian Lawless/PA)

Harrington’s approach to her diagnosis and treatment has been one of persistent positivity, helped by the solace of her yard and her love of horses.

“I wasn’t going to let it get the better of me, at times I felt it was but no, never,” she said.

“If you get up in a positive mood in the morning, you’re grand. I’m lucky, I live in a lovely place. I look at these horses every day and when I get up and look at that view towards the mountains, what have I got to complain about?”

Lifetime Ambition of National victory edging closer for Harrington

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Jessica Harrington has captured many big races in both codes of racing, but the decorated handler could have found an appropriately-named horse to fill the Randox Grand National-shaped void in her trophy cabinet.

Lifetime Ambition is the horse in question – an eight-year-old gelding who comes alive in the spring.

Twice a winner over the larger obstacles, he won a Grade Three at Limerick at this time of year last season, before going on to chase home Capodanno in a Grade One at the Punchestown Festival.

His Aintree credentials were on show during his reappearance in November when given a sighter of the famous green spruce in the Grand Sefton and having finished an eyecatching fourth on that occasion, the rest of his campaign has been geared around a return to Merseyside on April 15.

Lifetime Ambition ridden by Sean O’Keeffe on their way to winning the tote Ten To Follow Beginners Chase at Down Royal
Lifetime Ambition ridden by Sean O’Keeffe on their way to winning the tote Ten To Follow Beginners Chase at Down Royal (Brian Lawless/PA)

“He jumped very well and I was delighted with him,” said Harrington.

“I just hope the ground is OK, he likes nice spring ground, good to soft would be fine, he doesn’t like that tacky ground though.”

Following his appearance in Liverpool, Lifetime Ambition finished second to fellow Aintree contender The Big Dog in the Troytown at Navan – giving a bold sight in front until an error at the final fence allowed his rival to pass for a three-and-a-half-length victory.

He was then a respectable third to Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Galopin Des Champs in the John Durkan prior to Christmas and has been kept ticking over among useful company in the early stages of 2023.

All roads now lead back to Aintree where Harrington is confident he has the right attributes to thrive over the extended four-and-a-quarter-mile trip.

“He is going to definitely run in the National and Sean O’Keeffe is going to ride him. It’s all systems go.

“He’s a nice horse who stays well,” she added. “All of his form is in the spring of the year and that is when he comes into himself.

“He knows the fences, I think he will stay and he is a horse who will be up there on the front end, hopefully keeping out of trouble, and hopefully the race will get run the way he likes it.”

Harrington is one of the few trainers to do the Cheltenham Festival treble of the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase, while her National Hunt haul includes an Irish Grand National thanks to Our Duke in 2017.

Trainer Jessica Harrington will saddle Lifetime Ambition in the Randox Grand National
Trainer Jessica Harrington will saddle Lifetime Ambition in the Randox Grand National (Brian Lawless/PA)

The Grand National, however, is one that eludes her.

Despite her long career in the training ranks, it was not until 2019 she had her first runner in the big race when silver medallist Magic Of Light almost did the unthinkable and denied the great Tiger Roll at odds of 66-1.

Magic Of Light returned to Aintree much better fancied in 2021 only to unseat at the fourth, while the same year Jett blazed a trail on the front end for a long way until the petrol tank of the Sam Waley-Cohen-ridden outsider emptied at the second-last.

That small sample size though should not detract from the 76-year-old’s desire to taste success in Merseyside – a victory which would taste all the more sweeter in light of the news Harrington has been battling breast cancer.

“I would be delighted to win it, it is a race I have always wanted to win,” she said.

“Magic Of Light was my first runner in it and since then I’ve had her and Jett run in it in 2021.

“I haven’t had that many runners, but it would be lovely to win one.”

Connections hoping Diamond can sparkle at Fairyhouse

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Ashroe Diamond bids to give Willie Mullins back-to-back victories in the Awardsandgifts.ie Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on Saturday.

The six-year-old struck Grade Two glory in the mares’ bumper at Aintree’s Grand National Festival last spring and has continued to produce a fine level of form since transferring to hurdles this season.

Winner of a Naas maiden on her return, she has not been disgraced in a pair of Grade One events since, finishing third in both Punchestown’s Royal Bond and the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown.

The daughter of Walk In The Park is second favourite for the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and has the chance to lay down a marker for that contest in this Grade Three event.

“We are looking forward to running, she’s in good order and we’re happy with her at home,” said James Fenton, club manager for owners Blue Blood Racing.

“Danny (Mullins) is riding her because Paul (Townend) is going to Cheltenham to ride Energumene and Patrick (Mullins) can’t do the weight and we’re delighted to see Danny get the leg-up – he’s as good a rider out there.

“We go with confidence and if she can reproduce the form of her last two runs, we give her every chance.

Ashroe Diamond ridden by Patrick Mullins celebrates winning the Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt at Aintree Racecourse
Ashroe Diamond ridden by Patrick Mullins celebrates winning the Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt at Aintree Racecourse (Nigel French/PA)

“It is a very competitive field and they all demand plenty of respect, but we would be very confident with our mare.”

Mullins is also represented by Saylavee who was on the scoresheet in Listed company at Punchestown last month, while owner Kenny Alexander won this in both 2020 and 2021 with Honeysuckle and Minella Melody respectively and sees his colours carried by the unbeaten Gordon Elliott-trained Halka Du Tabert this time.

Jessica Harrington’s Jetara is related to Champion Hurdle hero Jezki and made a pleasing hurdles debut when chasing home High Definition at Leopardstown.

Before that she won a Listed bumper at Navan and also has a course victory to her name.

“She is a nice horse and she seems to go on a bit softer ground than most of her relations – I just think she’s a really nice horse,” said Harrington.

“Two miles, two and a half furlongs at Fairyhouse will suit her. She won a bumper there over two and a half, she’s won a bumper over two miles and then last time she ran over two miles and was staying on all the way, so I think the distance is about right for her.”

Jetara kept on gamely to win the Listed Coolmore N.H. Sires In Swoop Irish EBF Mares INH Flat Race at Navan
Jetara kept on gamely to win the Listed Coolmore N.H. Sires In Swoop Irish EBF Mares INH Flat Race at Navan (PA)

A bold showing on Saturday could see the five-year-old book her ticket to Prestbury Park in March – with Harrington confirming the Mares’ Novice is on Jetara’s agenda, provided she continues on her upwards curve.

“The Mares’ Novice is two-miles-one and they’ll go a good gallop,” added Harrington.

“She was all out over two miles in the Listed bumper and stayed on well, so we’ll go on Saturday and see what happens.”

Joseph O’Brien’s Goodie Two Shoes and Jarlath Fahey’s track-and-trip scorer Whatcouldhavebeen complete the line-up.

Cadillac out to hit top gear at the Curragh

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Jessica Harrington’s exciting juvenile Cadillac will bid to double his career tally and remain unbeaten in the Galileo Irish EBF Futurity Stakes at the Curragh on Saturday.

Cadillac was a wide-margin winner on his only appearance to date, taking a maiden at Leopardstown by nine lengths at the start of last month.

A follow-up run at the same track was vetoed because of firm ground, something the colt is unlikely to encounter this weekend.

“He’s in great form, he’s doing very well,” Harrington said as she fine-tunes preparations for the Group Two contest.

“The only reason I didn’t run him at Leopardstown was because the ground was very quick that day. I took him out then, but he has been in great form since, and we’re hoping for a big run from him.”

Harrington also has another promising two-year-old on the same card, with Palifico set to run in the Group Two ARM Holding Debutante Stakes.

The filly was beaten just a neck by on her racecourse debut in June, and was subsequently placed again when finishing third in a similar maiden contest a month later.

Harrington, who won the Debutante Stakes last season with the top-quality filly Alpine Star, thinks her representative this time could be better than her form suggests.

“I am hoping she will run well,” she said.

“I know she is still a maiden, but she’s gone very well in two solid races so far.”

Palifico would not relish very testing conditions, however, and Harrington is therefore hoping the soft ground does not become heavy.

“I would really like it not to rain much more, if possible. She wouldn’t like that.”

Harrington also confirmed Alpine Star is faring well after her gallant effort in defeat behind Palace Pier in the Prix Jacques le Marois.

The filly went down by just three-quarters of a length when taking on colts for the first time in Group One company.

“Alpine Star is grand after her race,” said her trainer.

“She’s well, she’s in very good form. I was delighted with her, absolutely delighted with her. I really was.”

Two-year-old Flat Debutants, Part 2

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In part 1 of this series, here, I suggested that if we were looking to blindly back two-year-olds on their flat debut this season, our starting point should initially be those juveniles trained by Richard Fahey, Jessica Harrington and Ger Lyons, writes Chris Worrall. As well as that standout trio, I was also interested in those trained by Paul Cole, Eve Johnson Houghton and David Simcock, notwithstanding the reservations I highlighted about those three.

I went on to highlight in that opening piece that we may be able to eliminate some bad bets by focusing more on each trainer's runners based on a series of factors: track location, actual track, race class/distance/going, jockeys used, time of year and sex of horse.

Richard Fahey

So, if we start with our three headline acts, we can see that Richard Fahey's results with 2yo flat debutants from 2016-19 were as follows:

Closer inspection of those 381 runners showed no real bias towards either gender or for any particular reported ground conditions, but of the other five tested variables, I found (in sample size order) that those numbers included:

  • 55/363 (15.15%) for 135.66pts (+37.37%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 53/359 (14.76%) for 125.13pts (+34.85%) during April to September
  • 51/339 (15.04%) for 122.82pts (+36.24%) in Yorkshire, NW & Central England
  • 47/314 (14.97%) for 132.07pts (+42.06%) at Classes 4 & 5
  • 38/236 (16.10%) for 92.88pts (+39.36%) ridden by Tony Hamilton or Paul Hanagan

(all profit quoted is to Betfair Starting Price, BSP)

And when combine all those filters, we are left with...

Suggestion: back all Richard Fahey 2yo Flat debutants ridden by Tony Hamilton or Paul Hanagan at up to 7 furlongs in Class 4 or 5 races in Yorkshire, the North West or Central England during April to September.

Jessica Harrington

And now onto Jessica Harrington, whose 2016-19 stats were...

From which (in order of winners)...

  • 18/114 (15.79%) for 81.5pts (+71.49%) over trips of 5 to 7 furlongs
  • 15/122 (12.3%) for 23.28pts (+19.08%) in Leinster
  • 15/104 (14.42%) for 56.85pts (+54.67%) on ground declared as Good to Yielding or firmer
  • 15/80 (18.75%) for 80.7pts (+100.88%) during May to July
  • 13/95 (13.68%) for 26.94pts (+28.35%) with female runners

And combining trip, track location, going and time of year gives us...

             

of which the gender spilt is as follows....

The females win more often, but the males generate more profit, so I'm not really convinced we should narrow it down either way.

Suggestion: back Jessica Harrington's 2 year olds on debut in Leinster (Bellewstown, Curragh, Fairyhouse, Gowran Park, Leopardstown, Naas, Navan) during May to July at trips up to 7 furlongs and on ground described as Good to Yielding or firmer.

Ger Lyons

The final member of our top trio is Ger Lyons, who qualified on his record over the last three seasons of...

Once again, we'll subject those runners to the filtering system, where it can be noted:

  • 30/130 (23.08%) for 90.71pts (+69.78%) over trips of 6f to 1m
  • 30/125 (24%) for 95.71pts (+76.57%) during April to September
  • 29/137 (21.17%) for 76.78pts (+56.05%) on ground deemed Soft or better
  • 29/136 (21.32%) for 79.30pts (+58.31%) in Leinster and Munster
  • 28/116 (24.14%) for 79.07pts (+68.16%) when ridden by Colin Keane

and when we combine those five sets of data, we end up with a fantastic set of numbers reading...

Once again both sexes fare well as follows...

...so we'll not differentiate between the two.

Suggestion: back all Ger Lyons' 2 yo debutants ridden by Colin Keane over trips of 6f to a mile in Leinster (see above for tracks) and Munster (Cork, Killarney, Limerick, Listowel, Thurles, Tipperary) on Soft ground or better from April to September.

*

Those were the three main protagonists from part 1 of this series; combining their two-year-old flat debutants under the specified conditions brings us to 66 winners from 293 runners (22.53% SR) and 266.74pts of profit at an excellent ROI of some 91.04%.

Clearly it will be difficult to fully repeat those numbers but if they only do half as well in the next three or four years we'll still be looking at 130+ points.

*

So what of our 'second string' trio of Paul Cole, Eve Johnson Houghton and David Simcock? Are there conditions under which we might follow their juvenile debutants?

The easiest way to find out is to dive into the data, starting with...

Paul Cole

Cole's base figures with 2yo first-time starters are:

That's a small sample size so caution is advised, but they do include of note...

  • 6/35 (17.14%) for 68.1pts (+194.57%) in Classes 4 and 5
  • 6/30 (20%) for 73.1pts (+243.67%) over trips of 5 or 6 furlongs
  • 6/29 (20.69%) for 74.1pts (+255.52%) during April to July
  • 6/14 (42.86%) for 89.1pts (+636.43%) at Brighton, Leicester & Newbury
  • 5/28 (17.86%) for 31.35pts (+111.96%) in SE England
  • 3/10 (30%) for 60.92pts (+609.2%) with Raul Da Silva in the saddle

You probably don't need me to point out how Paul got all of his six original winners, but combining those first four filters gives...

Suggestion: keep an eye out for Paul Cole 2yo firsters in Class 4 or 5 races over 5 or 6 furlongs at Brighton, Leicester or Newbury from April to July, especially if Raul da Silva's on board, even if it's a big price.

Eve Johnson Houghton

Next up is Eve Johnson Houghton, whose own record during the last four seasons was...

...which, like Paul Cole previously, was a smaller than ideal sample size, but did include...

  • 8/52 (15.38%) for 141.35pts (+271.82%) excluding April and July
  • 7/62 (11.29%) for 98.02pts (+158.10%) in Classes 4 and 5
  • 7/46 (15.22%) for 106.94pts (+232.48%) over 6 or 7 furlongs
  • 6/47 (12.77%) for 120.04pts (+255.41%) in SE England
  • 6/41 (14.63%) for 88.22pts (+215.16%) ridden by Charles Bishop
  • 6/37 (16.22%) for 142.18pts (+384.26%) from female runners
  • and 5/21 (23.81%) for 42.74pts (+203.52%) on Good to Soft or Soft ground

Combining class, month, distance and going gives us...

...and despite this dozen qualifiers include 4 from 7 (57.1%) for 48.5pts (+392.7%) for Charles Bishop, 3 from 6 (50%) for 43.6pts (+726.2%) for females and 3 from 6 (50%) for 31.4pts (+524%) in the South East, there is an uneasy feel to the exclusion of April and July - I can't come up with a logical reason why the horses would fail to fire in that month. Instead, I've taken a more straightforward view...

Suggestion: Look out for Eve Johnson Houghton's Class 4 and 5 runners over 6 or 7 furlongs on Good to Soft or Soft ground. Add a bonus point if you see Charles Bishop down to ride.

David Simcock

And finally for this look at trainers who perform well with juvenile first time starters, we'll put David Simcock under the microscope, despite his sobering record last season (0 from 20). Even with that abject campaign, his four year score is...

and again we've only a small number of runners to consider, but they do include...

  • 6/31 (19.4%) for 18.65pts (+60.17%) when ridden by Jamie Spencer
  • 4/20 (20%) for 49.15pts (+245.76%) over a mile
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 27.4pts (+182.66%) at Yarmouth
  • 3/14 (21.4%) for 23.6pts (+168.6%) for Jamie Spencer over a mile
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 28.6pts (+317.8%) for Jamie Spencer at Yarmouth
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 30.6pts (+437.1%) over a mile at Yarmouth
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 32.69pts Jamie Spencer over a mile at Yarmouth

Obviously the Jamie Spencer angle is interesting, especially over a mile at Yarmouth, but I feel that particular stat lends more to the excellent record the jockey and trainer have together at that venue (a story for another day, perhaps?), but as for this piece...

Suggestion: Note, but don't necessarily back, David Simcock two-year-old flat debutants.

*

All of which second team deliberation leaves us with just the Paul Cole and Eve Johnson Houghton runners, whose suggested angles combine for 11 winners from 22 runners (50% SR) and 144.84 pts (+658.6% ROI) as a juicy-looking - but less reliable based on sample size - supplement to our top trio's 66 winners from 293 runners (22.53% SR, +266.74 BSP, ROI of 91.04%).

Hopefully, we'll soon be able to "live trial" these angles. Fingers crossed and all that, but for now, thanks for reading and I'll be back with more soon.

 - CW

Stat of the Day, 21st March 2020

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Friday's pick was...

4.00 Dundalk : Cautious Approach @ 7/2 BOG Race Void (Injured rider on track forced a stoppage)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.10 Thurles :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sizing Pottsie @ 9/4 BOG

...in the 9-runner, Pierce Molony Memorial Novice Chase (Grade 3) for 5yo+ over 2m2f on soft ground worth £29,204 to the winner... 

Why?...

Might be a predictable looking pick, but (a) I've not many races to go at, (b) there's a host of stats to support the pick and (c) I expect to have a winner here and I suppose that's the most important right now!

He's a hat-trick seeking 6 yr old gelding who won a similar Grade 3 Novice Chase at Navan under today's jockey last time out. That was 18 days ago over 2m on heavy ground taking his chase record to 2 from 3, having already previously won over 2m1.5f on heavy ground (also under today's rider).

He clearly has the ability to go in again, won't mind the trip or the going and obviously gets on well with jockey Robbie Power, who's in good nick of late having won 9 of 42 (21.4% SR) of rides over the last month. Those are good numbers, but even more so when you consider he was 0 from 15 at Cheltenham (now 0/40 there over three years).

So if we consider just his rides here in Ireland, he's 8 from 25 (32% SR) over the past month, including 7 from 18 (38.9%) for today's trainer, Mrs John (aka Jessica) Harrington and that includes 4 winners from 6 (66.6%) over fences.

Whilst, since the start of 2016, Robbie is 8 from 28 (28.6% SR) for 6.28pts (+22.4% ROI) over fences here at Thurles and these include...

  • 7/18 (38.9%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 6/20 (30%) for Mrs H
  • 6/17 (35.3%) on male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) with soft in the going description
  • 5/12 (41.7%) over this 2m2f course and distance
  • and 3/9 (33.3%) on 6 yr olds...

...whilst trainer Mrs Harrington's chasers are 8 from 28 (28.6% SR) for 2.23pts (+8% ROI) backed blindly here at Thurles since the start of 2017. I accept that 8% isn't massive, but the strike rate is good from blind backing and when filtered, those runners include...

  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 8.23pts (+37.4%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 8.23pts (+37.4%) in fields of 6 or more runners
  • 8/21 (38.1%) for 9.23pts (+44%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 9.93pts (+52.3%) with horses rested for up to 25 days
  • 6/20 (30%) for 5.4pts (+27%) with jockey Robbie Power, as above
  • 6/12 (50%) for 12.27pts (+102.3%) on ground with soft in the official description
  • and 4/13 (30.8%) for 5.32pts (+40.9%) over this 2m2f course and distance...

...whilst from the original 8 from 28 record, 5-7 yr olds at 7/1 and shorter in 6+ runner races at 1-25 dslr = 7/11 (63.6% SR) for 17.94 pts (+163.1% ROI) and these include...

  • 6/9 for Robbie Power
  • 5/7 with soft featured in the going
  • 5/7 for Robbie with soft mentioned
  • 4/6 over C&D
  • 4/6 for Robbie over C&D
  • 4/5 over C&D with soft mentioned
  • and 4/5 for Robbie over C&D with the word soft in the going description

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Sizing Pottsie @ 9/4 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.15am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Thurles

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P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!