Tag Archive for: horse racing tips

Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2020

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Monday's pick was...

3.40 Wetherby : Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 8/1 (Chased leaders, outpaced in 4th 4 out, ridden after next, never on terms, weakened after last)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.00 Exeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 5, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

Why?...

Big field, soft ground handicap chases aren't for the faint hearted, not even at this low grade of racing, but thankfully we've got a 7 yr old gelding who should relish the conditions.

A winner of each of his last three starts since blinkers were applied, all at 3m or beyond, all on soft or softer ground, all going right handed, all under jockey Conor Ring who again claims 3lbs and one win here at Exeter.

He's up another 5lbs for that latest win, but has had more than four weeks to get his his exertions and also takes a drop in class to run here today. He's not fazed by company (his wins were in fields of 10, 11 & 12 runners) and I expect another bold show today from this former heavy ground 3m PTP winner.

As for his trainer sending him here again, that's possibly because Evan Williams' runners are 20 from 91 (22% SR) for 65.7pts (+72.2% ROI) backed blindly here at Exeter since 2015.

Obviously I rarely (if ever) advocate backing every runner from a particular trainer at a track and I prefer to isolate certain profitable/relevant angles to our advantage and here's a baker's dozen of such possible lines of approach from those 91 runners...

  1.  18/77 (23.4%) for 65.8pts (+85.4%) from male runners
  2.  18/71 (25.4%) for 63.7pts (+89.7%) in races worth less than £11,000
  3.  14/51 (27.5%) for 62.5pts (+122.6%) in handicaps
  4.  13/47 (27.7%) for 54.4pts (+115.7%) with 6/7 yr olds
  5.  13/29 (44.8%) for 35.5pts (+122.5%) at odds of 6/4 to 5/1
  6.  12/42 (28.6%) for 49.7pts (+118.4%) at 26-90 days since they last ran
  7.  12/35 (34.3%) for 66.1pts (+188.8%) on soft ground
  8.  9/38 (23.7%) for 24.3pts (+63.9%) from chasers
  9.  8/22 (36.4%) for 15.9pts (+72.3%) at Class 5
  10.  5/24 (20.8%) for 37.9pts (+157.9%) at trips of 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f
  11.  5/14 (35.7%) for 27.6pts (+196.9%) from LTO winners
  12.  5/10 (50%) for 21.41pts (+214.1%) with handicap chasers sent off at 6/4 to 15/2
  13.  and 3/9 (33.3%) for 17.22pts (+191.3%) from those with one previous course win...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.00am Tuesday, with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Exeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Southwell : Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 (Made all, clear from 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly and won unchallenged by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on heavy ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at today's class and trip under today's jockey on soft ground at relatively nearby Catterick 31 days ago and despite going up in weight, he still runs off a winnable mark today.

He now has 6 wins and 6 further places from 23 efforts over fences and today's conditions look ideal for him as those 23 races have yielded...

  • 6 wins, 5 places from 17 at odds of Evens to 5/1
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 20 at Class 4
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 19 in cheekpieces
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 after less than 5 weeks rest
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 off a mark (OR) of 100-110
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 11 at trips of 2m½f to 2m4f
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 6 on heavy ground

...and Casual Cavalier is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 12.12pts (+202% ROI) when sent off at Evs to 5/1 wearing cheekpieces in a Class 4 chase over a trip of 2m½f to 2m4f off a mark of 100-110 after less than five weeks rest, including 2 from 2 for 4.81pts on heavy ground.

His trainer Tristan Davidson has had an excellent last couple of years and has been profitably follow blindly across all three (Flat, A/W & NH) disciplines, a feat rarely achieved, but we're obviously just going to look at his record in this code today, because...

...his NH runners are 22 from 72 (30.6% SR) for 52.33pts (+72.7% ROI) over those last two years and here are just 10 of the ways he got those winners under conditions faced today...

  1.  21/61 (34.4%) for 59.8pts (+98%) in races worth less than £8,000
  2.  20/62 (32.3%) for 49.9pts (+80.5%) from male runners
  3.  20/52 (38.5%) for 64.4pts (+123.8%) within 65 days of their last run
  4.  18/60 (30%) for 50.9pts (+84.9%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
  5.  18/41 (43.9%) for 30.8pts (+75.1%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  6.  16/54 (29.6%) for 31.7pts (+58.7%) in handicaps
  7.  12/32 (37.5%) for 51.1pts (+159.8%) over trips of 2m½f to 2m6f
  8.  12/32 (37.5%) for 32.6pts (+101.9%) at Class 4
  9.  6/11 (54.6%) for 25.6pts (+232.4%) during March to April
  10.  and 5/14 (35.7%) for 8pts (+57.1%) over fences...

...whilst males sent off at Evens to 5/1 under Harry Reed for less than £8k within 65 days of their last run are 12 from 19 (63.2% SR) for 34.4pts (+181.1% ROI), including...

  • 10 from 16 in handicaps
  • 8 from 12 at Class 4
  • 6 from 8 over 2m½f to 2m6f
  • 5 from 5 in March/April
  • and 3 from 7 over fences...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Monday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd March 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Southwell : Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/4 (Made all, clear from 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on strongly and won unchallenged by 2.5 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Wetherby :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on heavy ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

This 12 yr old gelding was a winner last time out when scoring at today's class and trip under today's jockey on soft ground at relatively nearby Catterick 31 days ago and despite going up in weight, he still runs off a winnable mark today.

He now has 6 wins and 6 further places from 23 efforts over fences and today's conditions look ideal for him as those 23 races have yielded...

  • 6 wins, 5 places from 17 at odds of Evens to 5/1
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 20 at Class 4
  • 5 wins, 6 places from 19 in cheekpieces
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 after less than 5 weeks rest
  • 5 wins, 4 places from 14 off a mark (OR) of 100-110
  • 5 wins, 3 places from 11 at trips of 2m½f to 2m4f
  • and 2 wins, 2 places from 6 on heavy ground

...and Casual Cavalier is 4 from 6 (66.6% SR) for 12.12pts (+202% ROI) when sent off at Evs to 5/1 wearing cheekpieces in a Class 4 chase over a trip of 2m½f to 2m4f off a mark of 100-110 after less than five weeks rest, including 2 from 2 for 4.81pts on heavy ground.

His trainer Tristan Davidson has had an excellent last couple of years and has been profitably follow blindly across all three (Flat, A/W & NH) disciplines, a feat rarely achieved, but we're obviously just going to look at his record in this code today, because...

...his NH runners are 22 from 72 (30.6% SR) for 52.33pts (+72.7% ROI) over those last two years and here are just 10 of the ways he got those winners under conditions faced today...

  1.  21/61 (34.4%) for 59.8pts (+98%) in races worth less than £8,000
  2.  20/62 (32.3%) for 49.9pts (+80.5%) from male runners
  3.  20/52 (38.5%) for 64.4pts (+123.8%) within 65 days of their last run
  4.  18/60 (30%) for 50.9pts (+84.9%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
  5.  18/41 (43.9%) for 30.8pts (+75.1%) at odds of 5/1 and shorter
  6.  16/54 (29.6%) for 31.7pts (+58.7%) in handicaps
  7.  12/32 (37.5%) for 51.1pts (+159.8%) over trips of 2m½f to 2m6f
  8.  12/32 (37.5%) for 32.6pts (+101.9%) at Class 4
  9.  6/11 (54.6%) for 25.6pts (+232.4%) during March to April
  10.  and 5/14 (35.7%) for 8pts (+57.1%) over fences...

...whilst males sent off at Evens to 5/1 under Harry Reed for less than £8k within 65 days of their last run are 12 from 19 (63.2% SR) for 34.4pts (+181.1% ROI), including...

  • 10 from 16 in handicaps
  • 8 from 12 at Class 4
  • 6 from 8 over 2m½f to 2m6f
  • 5 from 5 in March/April
  • and 3 from 7 over fences...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 4/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Hills & Unibet at 8.00am Monday, with plenty of 7/2 elsewhere but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Wetherby

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th February 2020

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Friday's pick was...

7.15 Newcastle : Watheer @ 3/1 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Prominent, driven to challenge over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, kept on until no extra and lost place towards finish and beaten by two lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5yr old gelding has won 6 of 20 (30% SR) so far, an impressive return that includes the following under today's conditions...

  • 5/17 in handicaps
  • 5/16 wearing a tongue tie
  • 5/15 in cheekpieces
  • 5/13 at 6-25 dslr
  • 5/8 at 9/4 to 4/1
  • 3/11  at 1m6f and beyond
  • 3/10 in fields of 1-7 runners
  • and 2/9 under today's jockey, Richard Kingscote...

...whilst he is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 9.5pts (+237.2%) when sent off at 9/4 to 4/1 wearing both cheekpieces and a tongue tie in handicaps after a rest of 6-25 days. All are at 1m6f and beyond, including 2/2 in fields of 1 to 7 and 1 from 2 for Richard Kingscote.

The trainer (Tom Dascombe) / jockey partnership is a well worn farrow stat-wise, so I won't go there today, so let's find some other angles to back up the selection.

The sire, Animal Kingdom's offspring are 14 from 42 (33.3% SR) for 294.5pts (+701.3% ROI) on the Flat/AW beyond 1m3f, including of note today...

  • 13/35 (37.1%) for pts (+25.7%) in handicaps
  • 12/20 (60%) for 22.5pts (+112.5%) at Evens to 4/1
  • 11/29 (37.9%) for 4.71pts (+16.3%) in 3-8 runner contests
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 299.9pts (+1153.4%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 3.01pts (+13.7%) at 1m6f and beyond
  • and 6/24 (25%) for 291.7pts (+1215.3%) from males...

..whilst those sent off at Evens to 4/1 in 3-8 runner handicaps after a break of 1-25 days are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 13.06pts (+130.6% ROI).

And now back to the trainer, Tom Dascombe, whose record here at Southwell over the last six years is excellent at 12 wins from 43 (27.9% SR) and profits of 60.3pts represent a 140.2% return on stakes.

Despite only having less than 50 runners here in six years, there are still a whole host of profitable/relevant angles at play today, so here are "just" a dozen ways of how he got those 12 winners...

  1. Males : 12/41 (29.3%) for 62.3pts (+151.9%)
  2. 3-7 yr olds : 11/29 (37.9%) for 51.9pts (+179.1%)
  3. Handicappers : 9/34 (26.5%) for 55.4pts (+163%)
  4. His only runner here on the day : 9/27 (33.3%) for 56.8pts (+210.4%)
  5. Those who raced in the previous 30 days : 9/27 (33.3%) for 48.3pts (+178.7%)
  6. During Feb-April : 9/22 (40.9%) for 53.3pts (+242.1%)
  7. In fields of 7-9 runners : 8/19 (42.1%) for 47.7pts (+250.9%)
  8. With his only runner all day : 7/20 (35%) for 28.9pts (+145%)
  9. At 7/4 to 5/1 : 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.9pts (+77.2%)
  10. Under Richard Kingscote : 6/24 (25%) for 26.1pts (+108.6%)
  11. In cheekpieces : 3/11 (27.3%) for 7.54pts (+68.6%)
  12. And those with just 1 previous run in the preceding 90 days are 3/9 (33.3%) for 22.8pts (+253.5%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Charlie D @ 10/3 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.45am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th February 2020

/by

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Ludlow : Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG PU at 3/1 (Held up, headway 13th, mistake next, weakened before 4 out, pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Newcastle :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Watheer @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 14-runner, Class 7, A/W Handicap for 3yo+ over 1m on Tapeta worth £2,523 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has finished 212 in his last three runs and now drops into this basement grade for the first time, where I'm hoping he'll just be a bit too good. He has the benefit of a track specialist on board today, as jockey Callum Rodriguez is 42 from 238 (17.7% SR) for 126.1pts (+53% ROI) on the Tapeta here at Newcastle, including 14 from 51 (27.5%) for 106.5pts (+208.7%) in 1m course and distance handicaps.

Trainer Roger Fell often sends horses back out fairly quickly to good effect and since the start of 2018, his A/W handicappers rested for less than three weeks are 29 from 176 (16.5% SR) for 254.3pts (+144.5% ROI), from which those racing over trips of a mile or shorter are 25 from 137 (18.25%) for 277.8pts (+202.8%)

And my third and final (hurray, he's keeping it brief!) set of data for today tells us that Roger Fell's Class 4 or lower handicappers wearing cheekpieces and racing over trips shorter than 1m1f are 11 from 60 (18.3% SR) for 119.3pts (+198.9% ROI) since the start of 2017 when they've worn that headgear on fewer than three previous occasions, including...

  • 11/47 (23.4%) for 132.3pts (+281.6%) at 1-25 dslr
  • 5/20 (25%) for 95.7pts (+478.7%) on the A/W
  • 4/17 (23.5%) for 75.9pts (+444.4%) on tapeta
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.21pts (+20.1%) after a top 2 finish LTO...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Watheer @ 3/1 BOG as was quite widely available at 8.05am Friday with plenty 11/4 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Newcastle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th February 2020

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

4.40 Musselburgh : Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 5/1 (Chased leaders, not fluent 2nd, lost place after next, ridden 7th, closed on outside next, weakened before normal 3 out (actual 2 out)) : she showed very little desire to get involved.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £12,736 to the winner...

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding won another soft ground, Class 3, handicap chase when last seen 25 days ago at Taunton and although he's up 5lbs for that win, a change of jockey to an in-form 5lb claimer sorts that out.

He's now got 4 wins and 2 from 9 starts over fences, including under today's conditions...

  • 4 wins and a place from 7 going right handed
  • 3 wins and a place from 4 at odds of 6/1 and shorter
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 at Class 3
  • 1 win and 1 place from 2 on soft ground
  • and 1 from 1 here at Ludlow

The afore-mentioned jockey, Charlie Price, hasn't been overworked of late (mind you, we've lost plenty of racing recently), but has won 3 and placed in 4 others of his 10 rides in the past three weeks, which is decent enough and he now teams up with trainer Tim Vaughan, who himself has had some joy here in Shropshire in the past few years.

More specifically, Tim Vaughan's chasers at Ludlow (all male btw) are 9 from 30 (30% SR) for 48.7pts (+162.4% ROI) if backed blindly since the start of 2014, with the following of relevance today...

  • 9/29 (31%) for 49.7pts (+171.4%) in handicaps
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 55.7pts (+242.2%) in races worth £4k to £13k
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 44.4pts (+193.1%) in 5-9 runner contests
  • 8/20 (40%) for 36.8pts (+184%) at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.7pts (+297%) at 21-30 dslr
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 15.7pts (+142.4%) over this 3m C&D
  • 3/10 (30%) for 39.7pts (+397.2%) at class 3
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 2.13pts (+106.5%) with LTO winners...

...whilst those sent off at 10/1 or shorter in 5-9 runner handicaps worth £4k to £13k are 7 from 12 (58.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+279.3% ROI) and these include 5 from 6 within 25 dslr, 3 from 3 at this 3m C&D, 2 from 2 from LTO winners and 1 from 1 at Class 3...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Cap St Vincent @ 9/2 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.00am Thursday (and widely available by 9.00am) with some 5/1 BOG at Hills, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.25 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th February 2020

/by

Tuesday's pick was...

4.45 Catterick : Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Mid-division, headway after 3 out, challenged towards stands side rail next, not clear run and switched inside between last 2, soon ridden, stayed on to lead towards finish) : nice to "nick" one and the other mentioned horse also won for a 35/1 double!

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.40 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Mares Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4f on Soft ground worth £3,964 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare was a winner last time out five weeks ago, comes here seeking a hat-trick and is the only one of the 9 runners in this contest with any real discernible recent form, as only one other has a win in their last five outings.

She has won three times so far, including...

  • 2 in handicaps
  • 2 this year
  • 2 for jockey Conor O'Farrell
  • 2 for trainer Dianne Sayer
  • 1 at Class 4
  • and 1 on Soft ground

Her trainer Dianne Sayer tends to do well with in-form horses and since the start of 2018, her LTO winners are 11 from 36 (30.6% SR) for 12.7pts (+35.3% ROI) with the following derived angles at play today...

  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 12.46pts (+36.7%) in handicaps
  • 10/27 (37%) for 19.46pts (+72.1%) at 5-35 dslr
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 19.76pts (+82.3%) with runners aged 4-6 yrs old
  • 9/15 (60%) for 14.7pts (+98%) at odds of 5/4 to 15/4
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 7.9pts (+52.7%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.94pts (+85.3%) when racing just 70-120 miles away from her base just South of Penrith
  • 6/10 (60%) for 15.05pts (+150.5%) on Soft ground
  • 5/10 (50%) for 19.8pts (+198%) with those stepping up in trip
  • 3/10 (30%) for 1.18pts (+11.8%) at Class 4
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 10.47pts (+116.3%) in fields of 9-10 runners
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 0.28pts (+4.74%) with jockey Conor O'Farrell

...whilst 4-6 yr old handicappers sent off at 5/4 to 15/4 after 5-35 days rest are 7 from 10 (70% SR) for 14.75pts (+147.5% ROI), including 4 from 5 (80%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) over hurdles...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Summer Lightening @ 10/3 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.05am Wednesday with plenty of 3/1 BOG around elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2020

/by

Monday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Reeves @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led early, tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 2nd place towards finish) : three runners-up on the bounce for us now!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?...

Similar to yesterday, in that I've little of substance to choose from at the right price, but the shortness of the fav here means we'll get a decent price about this 7 yr old gelding, who has finished 312 in his last three outings, having only gone down by two lengths over course and distance in a stronger/higher class race last time out 25 days ago after winning here again over C&D two starts ago.

He's by Sir Percy, whose offspring are 11 from 50 (22% SR) for 12.78pts (+25.6% ROI) over trips of 3m to 3m5f since the start of 2017, including of relevance here...

  • 10/40 (25%) for 19.27pts (+48.2%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/39 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+40.8%) over hurdles
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 15.53pts (+119.5%) during the first quarter of the year
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 2.74pts (+22.8%) on soft or heavy ground

He's also running out of a yard that knows how to train stayers, as trainer Sam England's record at 3m1½f to 3m3½f currently stands at 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.1% ROI) and these include of note today...

  • 10/28 (35.7%) for 63.8pts (+227.8%) from 6-10 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 66.8pts (+267.2%) ridden by Jonathan England
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 52.1pys (+236.6%) from December to April
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 67.7pts (+322.4%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.6pts (+156.5%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 54.1pts (+284.5%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 7/14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+159.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.1pts (+193.3%) over 3m1½f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 45.5pts (+350.2%) at Class 4
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.4pts (+191.3%) here at Catterick, all over today's course and distance...

...whilst Sam + Jonathan + 3m1½f to 3m3½f + 6-10 yr olds + Dec-April + 11/30 dslr + 7/1 max odds = 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for 29.5pts (+268.3%) and these runners include 6/10 after a top 3 finish LTO, 4/6 at this trip, 4/5 here at Catterick (all over C&D) and 1/1 at Class 4. Those 11 also include Ask Paddy who is currently (8.50am) priced at 11/4 BOG to win the previous 4.15 race on this card...  

...but my selection is...a 1pt win bet on Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday,but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Chelmsford : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Went right start, led, steadied halfway, quickened 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, shaken up inside final 2f, ran on but headed at post, beaten by a nose) : this sort of typifies my luck right now, but for bad luck, I'd have none!

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reeves @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

Not much to go at today in our price range, but I've found one that looks a big price considering his profile. He's 4 yr old gelding who admittedly needs to bounce back from an unusually below-par run last time out in his fifth run on the All-Weather.

He had won his previous four, so he's now 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 13.93pts (+278.7% ROI) away from the turf and this includes of note today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) as a non-favourite
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.76pts (+244%) at 14-28 days since last run
  • 3/3 (100%) for 10.76pts (+358.8%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.14pts (+238.1%) under jockey Sean Davis
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.52pts (+426%) in 6-runner contests
  • 1/2 (50%) for 2.79pts (+139.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over 6f
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over this course and distance

...whilst his trainer Robert Cowell is 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 18.5pts (+59.7% ROI) with horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 11/2 (our rough SotD range) in Wolverhampton A/W handicaps since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 17pts (+68%) with male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.22pts (+73.4%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 6.11pts (+61.1%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) in races worth more than £10k
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.4pts (+110%) at Class 2...

...whilst males in 6-9 runner contests at 11-20 dslr are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.68pts (+153.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 for 6.4pts at Class 2 with one of those Class 2 wins coming from Reeves here last December with Sean Davis in the saddle...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Reeves @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday, although Bet365 were offering half a point more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 24th February 2020

/by

Saturday's pick was...

6.30 Chelmsford : Victory Bond @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 (Went right start, led, steadied halfway, quickened 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, shaken up inside final 2f, ran on but headed at post, beaten by a nose) : this sort of typifies my luck right now, but for bad luck, I'd have none!

Monday's pick runs in the...

7.00 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reeves @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 2, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on tapeta worth £11,828 to the winner...

Why?...

Not much to go at today in our price range, but I've found one that looks a big price considering his profile. He's 4 yr old gelding who admittedly needs to bounce back from an unusually below-par run last time out in his fifth run on the All-Weather.

He had won his previous four, so he's now 4 from 5 (80% SR) for 13.93pts (+278.7% ROI) away from the turf and this includes of note today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/5 (80%) for 13.93pts (+278.7%) as a non-favourite
  • 3/4 (75%) for 9.76pts (+244%) at 14-28 days since last run
  • 3/3 (100%) for 10.76pts (+358.8%) at Class 2
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.14pts (+238.1%) under jockey Sean Davis
  • 2/2 (100%) for 8.52pts (+426%) in 6-runner contests
  • 1/2 (50%) for 2.79pts (+139.5%) here at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over 6f
  • 1/1 (100%) for 3.79pts (+379%) over this course and distance

...whilst his trainer Robert Cowell is 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 18.5pts (+59.7% ROI) with horses sent off at odds ranging from 5/2 to 11/2 (our rough SotD range) in Wolverhampton A/W handicaps since the start of 2016, including...

  • 8/25 (32%) for 17pts (+68%) with male runners
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 13.22pts (+73.4%) in fields of 6-9 runners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 6.11pts (+61.1%) at 11-20 dslr
  • 3/5 (60%) for 9.09pts (+181.8%) in races worth more than £10k
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.4pts (+110%) at Class 2...

...whilst males in 6-9 runner contests at 11-20 dslr are 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.68pts (+153.6% ROI), including 2 from 2 for 6.4pts at Class 2 with one of those Class 2 wins coming from Reeves here last December with Sean Davis in the saddle...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Reeves @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Monday, although Bet365 were offering half a point more, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.00 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!