Tag Archive for: horse racing tips

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2019

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Monday's pick was...

1.15 Musselburgh : Castletown @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 5/2 (Tracked leaders in 5th, pushed along and outpaced after 12th, never on terms after : ran like a pig if truth be told)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 5, Apprentice Handicap for 3yo+ over 2m½f on Tapeta worth £3,429 to the winner.

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding has been a model of consistency since switching to Karen McLintock's yard last year, winning all five starts for his new handler, including of relevance today...

  • 4/4 this year
  • 4/4 at 2m/2m0.5f
  • 4/4 in handicaps
  • 3/3 on A/W, all on tapeta
  • 1/1 at Wolverhampton
  • 1/1 over course and distance
  • 1/1 at Class 5

In addition to the above, he has also landed a Class 4 hurdle over 2m4f for Karen McLintock, proving that stamina shouldn't be an issue.

Sean Davis rides him for the first time and whilst his own career stats of 88/1408 (6.25% SR) for a loss of 367.3pts (-26.1% ROI) aren't exactly inspiring, he is actually 5 from 31 (16.1% SR) for 74.67pts (+240.9% ROI) profit here at Wolverhampton at an A/E of 1.77 and these numbers include 3/11 (27.3%) for 16.67pts (+151.6%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter.

Trainer Karen McLintock comes here after hitting 3 winners from 11 over the past fortnight, including 2 from 5 here at Wolverhampton, where longer-term her runners are 9/25 (36% SR) for 20.62pts (+82.5% ROI) since the start of 2016, including...

  • 9/15 (60%) for 30.62pts (+204.1%) at 8/1 and shorter
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 24.7pts (+130%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 8/22 (36.4%) for 16.92pts (+76.9%) in handicaps
  • 7/11 (63.6%) for 23.41pts (+212.8%) from 5 yr olds
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 16.26pts (+147.8%) with her only runner at the track that day
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 17.82pts (+297%) from LTO winners
  • 4/10 (40%) for 16.55pts (+165.5%) at Class 5
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 16.21pts (+180.2%) with her only runner of the day
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 1.97pts (+98.5%) over this 2m0.5f course and distance...

...and when she has been represented by a sole 5 yr old handicapper sent off at 8/1 and shorter in a field of 9-13 runners, she has 5 wins from 5 (100% SR) for 22.26pts (+445.2% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Grey Mist @ 10/3 BOG  as was offered by Bet365, whilst Hills & Sky Bet (both non-BOG until raceday) were slightly longer/shorter respectively at 4.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th December 2019

/by

Saturday's pick was...

12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Castletown @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.

In those last 6 runs he is...

  • 2222 under jockey Henry Brooke
  • 2312 in handicaps
  • 2232 on Good to Soft
  • 22 at Class 4 (won at Class 3)
  • 22 in December
  • 12 at 2m4.5f
  • and was a runner-up on his only run here at Musselburgh.

He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...

  • 22/90 (24.4%) for 20.2pts (+22.4%) in handicaps
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 47.9pts (+74.9%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 31pts (+39.2%) over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f
  • 20/69 (29%) for 37.6pts (+54.5%) at 51 to 170 miles from home
  • 19/66 (28.8%) for 24.8pts (+37.6%) with her only runner at the track
  • 18/65 (27.7%) for 18.6pts (+28.6%) with her only runner of the day
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.8pts (+62.6%) with jockey Henry Brooke
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 22.3pts (+131.1%) with LTO runners-up

...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...

  • Henry Brooke is 5/10 (50%) for 15.74pts (+157.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 14.81pts (+148.1%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7pts (+100%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG  as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th December 2019

/by

Saturday's pick was...

12.20 Chepstow : Native Robin @ 4/1 5th at 11/2 (Held up and behind, short-lived effort after 11th)

Monday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Musselburgh :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Castletown @ 4/1 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Novice Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m4f on currently Good to Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner

Why?...

This 7 yr old gelding's form over the last 12 months reads 222312 and he was a runner-up over class, course and distance last time out a fortnight ago, headed late on and beaten by just 3 lengths despite coming off the back of a 226-day absence. He should come on for having had that run and going off the same mark today is a bonus.

In those last 6 runs he is...

  • 2222 under jockey Henry Brooke
  • 2312 in handicaps
  • 2232 on Good to Soft
  • 22 at Class 4 (won at Class 3)
  • 22 in December
  • 12 at 2m4.5f
  • and was a runner-up on his only run here at Musselburgh.

He is trained by Pauline Robson who is 27 from 110 (24.6% SR) for 25.5pts (+23.2% ROI) with her NH runners sent off at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 since the start of 2016, including...

  • 22/90 (24.4%) for 20.2pts (+22.4%) in handicaps
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 47.9pts (+74.9%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 21/79 (26.6%) for 31pts (+39.2%) over trips of 1m7.5f to 2m4.5f
  • 20/69 (29%) for 37.6pts (+54.5%) at 51 to 170 miles from home
  • 19/66 (28.8%) for 24.8pts (+37.6%) with her only runner at the track
  • 18/65 (27.7%) for 18.6pts (+28.6%) with her only runner of the day
  • 7/22 (31.8%) for 13.8pts (+62.6%) with jockey Henry Brooke
  • and 7/17 (41.2%) for 22.3pts (+131.1%) with LTO runners-up

...whilst based around the above categories and applicable today...handicappers racing over 2m to 3m0.5f within 45 days of their last run as Pauline's only runner of the day are 12 from 29 (41.4% SR) for 28.7pts (+99% ROI) within 170 miles of home, from which...

  • Henry Brooke is 5/10 (50%) for 15.74pts (+157.4%)
  • Class 4 runners are 5/10 (50%) for 14.81pts (+148.1%)
  • and LTO runners-up are 3/7 (42.9%) for 7pts (+100%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1 BOG  as was widely available at 5.50pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (non-BOG until raceday) were half a point bigger. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Musselburgh

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2019

/by

Friday's pick was...

1.20 Sandown : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4 (Close up, tracked leaders 3 out, ridden to lead on landing last, ran on to win by a 3.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

12.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native Robin @ 4/1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on currently Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding is a consistent sort, finishing 123222 in his last six outings and despite not winning any of the last five, he still boasts an impressive 5 wins from 16 over fences, including...

  • 5/13 under today's jockey Nick Scholfield
  • 4/9 at Class 4
  • 4/6 in December/January
  • 3/7 going right handed
  • and 2/3 in December

Aside from the above, this horse's name kept cropping up when I was going through my list of possible qualifiers, so I'm going to keep the separate stats brief.

We'll start by saying that the yard is in good nick too, with 5 winners from 19 in the past fortnight, including 4/12 in the last week, whilst since the start of 2017, Jeremy Scott's handicap jumpers are 23 from 80 (28.75% SR) for 16.84pts (+21% ROI) when sent off shorter than 7/1 on soft/heavy ground.

Whilst since 2014, Jeremy's Class 4 handicap chasers are 40/197 (20.3% SR) for 77.5pts (+39.3% ROI), with Nick Scholfield riding 17 winners from 79 (21.5%), whilst clocking up 38.2pts (+48.4%) profit.

And in that same 2014-19 time frame, Jeremy's sub-12/1 handicap chasers dropping in class are 18/46 (39.1% SR) for 90.6pts (+196.9% ROI) with Nick Scholfield once again being the go-to guy with an 11/24 (45.8%) record producing profits of 69.4pts (+289.3%)

Also, since 2014, when a handicap chaser has been Jeremy Scott's only runner of the day, he's has 24 winners from 123 (19.5% SR) for 79.5pts (+65.2% ROI) profit with lower grade (ie C4/5) runners winning 20 of 86 (23.2%) for 81.3pts (+95.7%).

And finally, I'll wrap this one up with a quick nod to Native Robin's recent form, since in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases since 2012, horses sent off shorter than 5/1 after finishing 222 in their previous three outings are 38 from 110 (34.6% SR) for 35.9pts (+32.6% ROI) when they'd last ran 11-45 days earlier. This includes 10 winners from 18 (55.6%) for 17.42pts (+96.8%) over 2m3.5f/2m4f ...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1  as was offered by Hills at 4.50pm on Friday. Hills were the only price available as I went to press, but another 8 firms went on to match that price, including some BOG firms. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 6th December 2019

/by

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Southwell : Rock Sound @ 7/2 2nd at 6/4 (Pressed leader, led narrowly over 4f out, driven and headed 2f out, soon ridden, kept on and every chance inside final furlong, just held by a neck)

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on currently Good To Soft ground worth £9,384 to the winner...

Why?...

Just the sixth start for this 5 yr old gelding, but he hasn't been out of the first three home yet, including one win. He was third last time out at Aintree, having faded out of contention late on, but that's excusable as it was (a) his chase debut, but jumped well enough, (b) his comeback from 40 weeks off track and (c) over a trip 4.5 furlongs longer than today.

He should come on for trying the fences for a first time and also for having had a run to clear the pipes. Indeed, trainer Tom Lacey's NH handicappers seem to go well after a recent run, as since the start of 2017, those with just one prior run in the previous 90 days have gone on to win 11 of 38 (29% SR) for 37.6pts (+99% ROI) and whilst there are just 38 such runners, I don't think that their success is pure coincidence, when you consider that the following are applicable today...

  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 41.6pts (+122.4%) from 5-8 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 27.15pts (+108.6%) at 6/4 to 15/2 odds
  • 9/25 (36%) for 21.6pts (+86.5%) from his only runner at that track that day
  • 9/25 (36%) for 20.55pts (+82.2%) at 21-45 dslr
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 45.4pts (+302.6%) after finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO
  • 7/13 (53.8%) for 43.8pts (+336.8%) on Good to Soft / Soft
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 24.7pts (+190.2%) dropping in trip
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 12.3pts (+82%) in November/December
  • 3/5 (60%) for 17.1pts (+342.5%) on Good to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) for 7.3pts (+146%) in December
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 6.82pts (+85.2%) were 3rd LTO
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 5.9pts (+59%) at Class 3

Now, I'm not going to combine the above into a composite angle, as I fear it would dilute an already small sample size too much, but I do want to re-visit the third item on that list ie Tom Lacey's only runner at a track, because since the start of 2016, when sending just one out to a track, he is 54/177 (30.5% SR) for 119.7pts (+67.6% ROI) in handicaps contests.

He also sends just one chaser to Exeter today (Kateson in the 1.30), but that's a non-handicap contest, so with today's race in mind, those 177 solo travellers are...

  • 49/128 (38.3%) for 115.7pts (+90.4%) at odds of 5/4 to 8/1
  • 43/136 (31.6%) for 102.8pts (+75.6%) from males
  • 27/72 (37.5%) for 88pts (+122.3%) from 5 yr olds
  • 20/55 (36.4%) for 54pts (+98.2%) in the final quarter of the year
  • 17/53 (32.1%) for 49pts (+92.5%) at Class 3
  • 15/40 (37.5%) for 12.8pts (+32%) from chasers
  • and 9/25 (36%) for 22.05pts (+88.2%) in December...

...whilst 5 yr old males sent off at 5/4 to 8/1 from October to December inclusive are 11 from 17 (64.7% SR) for 32.2pts (+189.6% ROI) including 5 from 8 (62.5%) for 7.93pts (+99.1%) in December...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Johnbb @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG  as was offered by Bet365 (10/3) and a whole host of others at 3/1 (some BOG, most not until morning) at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th December 2019

/by

Wednesday's pick was...

3.40 Kempton : Maazel @ 7/2 BOG 8th at 5/4 (Towards rear, headway 2f out, driven to chase leaders when not clear run over 1f out, unable to challenge, no impression inside final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

6.30 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rock Sound @ 10/3

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 6f on Fibresand worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

This lightly raced 4 yr old gelding makes just his seventh start today, but has won 2 of his previous six, including last time out a month ago over course and distance in another big field (14 ran) hcp, which was his first run in the UK, first run on an artificial surface and also his yard debut for Declan Carroll, whose runners are 4 from 18 (22.2% SR) for 9.5pts (+52.7% ROI) on the A/W over the last 30 days, including 4 from 10 (40%) for 17.5pts (+175%) here at Southwell.

Included amongst that recent run of good form at this venue are the following of relevance today...

  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) from males
  • 4/5 (80%) for 22.5pts (+450%) at sub-12/1 odds
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 18.22pts (+227.7%) in handicaps
  • and 3/4 (75%) for 22.22pts (+555.5%) on 13/14 runner contests...

...whilst sub-12/1 male handicappers are 3 from 3 9100% SR) for 23.22pts (+773.9% ROI) in 13/14 runner fields...

And this recent run isn't a flash in the pan either, as Declan's runners have fared well here at Southwell for a number of years now, clocking up 21 wins from 112 (18.75% SR) in handicaps since the start of 2016, generating 40.6pts profit at a healthy 36.2% return, including of note here...

  • 21/105 (20%) for 47.6pts (+45.3%) at trips of 5f to 1m
  • 19/100 (19%) for 39.6pts (+39.6%) in fields of 8-14 runners
  • 18/64 (28.1%) for 38.9pts (+60.8%) at odds of 8/1 and shorter
  • 17/82 (20.7%) for 41.3pts (+50.4%) at the same trip or dropped 1f from LTO
  • 13/63 (20.6%) for 41.8pts (+66.3%) during the 3 months from November to January...

...whilst if you wanted to secure almost 80% of the original profit from just 37.5% of the original bets, then sub-17/2 runners over 5f to 1m in 8-14 runner contests as the same trip or down 1f from LTO are 13/42 (31% SR) for 32.4pts (+77.7% ROI), with those racing during November & December winning 6 of 18 (33.3%) for 14.94pts (+83%) and this fairly simple approach...

...provides us with...a 1pt win bet on Rock Sound @ 10/3 as was offered by BetVictor & Hills at 5.50pm on Wednesday, although they sadly don't go BOG until racedays. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.30 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th December 2019

/by

Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Lingfield : Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 4/1 (Led until 5th, lost place 5 out, well beaten before 3 out )

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding was a runner-up at Lingfield just 4 days ago and gets the opportunity to go one better off the same mark today. He had the worst of the draw at the weekend, but has a more favourable stall today and is expected to go well again.

Trainer Lee Carter's horses are in great form, all eight runners over the last fortnight have made the frame, with two of them taking Gold, including a win and a place from two efforts here at Kempton.

His record with quick returners is decent, especially in similar circumstances to today, as...

...since the start of 2016, Lee Carter's Class 6 A/W handicappers sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 16/1 after less than three weeks rest are 11 from 49 (22.5% SR) for 77.5pts (+158.1% ROI) and these include of relevance today...

  • 10/38 (26.3%) for 76.3pts (+200.8%) from male runners
  • 10/30 (33.3%) for 84.3pts (+281.1%) from 5-9 yr olds

...whilst 5-9 yr old males are 10 from 28 (35.7% SR) for 86.3pts (+308.3% ROI) and you could stop there and back all of them, but if you wanted to drill down further...

  • 5 yr olds are 5/12 (41.7%) for 41.7pts (+347.7%)
  • LTO runners-up are 5/8 (62.5%) for 47.4pts (+592.4%)
  • over 7f, it's 3/9 (33.3%) for 33.8pts (+375.3%)
  • 5 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 36.8pts (+613%) over 7 furlongs
  • LTO runners-up are 3/5 (60%) for 37.8pts (+756%) over 7f
  • 5yr olds are 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) after finishing second LTO
  • and 5yr old, LTO runners-up are also 3/4 (75%) for 38.8pts (+970%) over a 7f trip...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Maazel @ 7/2 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 and SkyBet respectively at 5.40pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 3rd December 2019

/by

Monday's pick was...

4.45 Wolverhampton : Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG WON at 5/4 (Raced wide close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, soon chased leader, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, led close home, winning by a nose!)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3, Conditional Jockeys Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

It has been almost 11 months and nine defeats since this 11 yr old gelding last ran off a mark (OR) lower than 120 (my 50th birthday to be precise, but that's another matter!) and that was also his last win, so I'm glad to see him back off a winnable mark and not having any younger, fitter runners to deal with.

He's never been prolific (5/46 = 10.9% SR), but a quick look a this wins/best runs would suggest he's more likely to win any/some/all of the following are present...

  • a run in the previous 7 weeks (ran 19 days ago)
  • sent off at 5/1 or shorter (we're on at 10/3)
  • going left handed (tick)
  • handicap chases (tick)
  • soft or worse (heavy today)
  • OR lower than 120 (119 here)
  • wearing cheekpieces (tick)
  • running at Class 3/4 (C3 today)

...and when going left handed at 5/1 or shorter after 6 weeks rest or less, he is 3 from 5 (60% SR) for 7.41pts (+148.1% ROI) including 2 from 2 on soft or worse and 1/1 on heavy.

He is trained by Venetia Williams, one of my trainers to watch in the closing stages of the year (and also one of the trainers that switched me on to the statistical side of betting, but again that's another story for another day), as her chasers are 104 from 567 (18.3% SR) for 227.2pts (+40.1% ROI) during the closing two months of the year over the past nine years, with every year bar 2017 showing healthy strike rates and ROI figures.

And from the 567 November/December chasers since 2011...

  • 99/514 (19.3%) for 218.9pts (+42.6%) in handicaps
  • 98/515 (19%) for 237.9pts (+46.2%) from male runners
  • 94/474 (19.8%) for 204.5pts (+43.2%) at Classes 2 to 4
  • 71/361 (19.7%) for 116.5pts (+32.3%) on soft/heavy (the stat probably most well known)
  • 49/233 (21%) for 106.1pts (+45.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 29/134 (21.6%) for 63.6pts (+47.5%) off marks of 110-120
  • and 13/72 (18.1%) for 42pts (+58.3%) since the start of 2018 (so we're not using old data as a crutch!)

...whilst from the above, Class 2-4 male handicappers on soft or worse are 59/265 (22.3% SR) for 108.6pts (+41% ROI), a handy little micro for 30-ish bets a year, but if 15 or so bets in a month from one angle is too much, then you could re-filter using the initial parameters to get...

  • 31/109 (28.4%) for 90.4pts (+83%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 19/78 (24.4%) for 25.1pts (+32.2%) off an OR of 110-120
  • 11/35 (31.4%) for 18.65pts (+53.3%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr
  • 8/35 (22.9%) for 17.67pts (+50.5%) in 2018/19
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.5pts (+283.3%) at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19
  • 3/8 (37.5%) for 7.82pts (+97.7%) off 110-120 in 2018/19
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 4.27pts (+106.8%) off 110-120 at 1-25 dslr in 2018/19...

...and this possible over-dilution points to...a 1pt win bet on Uhlan Bute @ 10/3 or 3/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365 (10/3)  or Coral/Ladbrokes (3/1) or Betfair/PaddyPower/Hills (3/1) respectively (third grouping not BOG until raceday, mind) at 5.20pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2019

/by

Saturday's pick was...

3.25 Lingfield : Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, no extra)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Probably about the bottom end of the odds range I'm comfortable with, but (a) there should still be some value about the price and (b) I think our boy has more than a 28.5% chance of winning here, but what of him?

Well, he's a 5 yr old gelding who in 10 starts this year has 3 wins, 4 runner-up finishes and one other place and has been the runner-up in each of his last three starts (more on that shortly). To date, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 15 on the All-Weather and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 3+3 from 12 going left handed
  • 3+2 from 9 on Standard going
  • 3+3 from 8 this year
  • 3+2 from 9 after 10-20 days off track
  • 3 from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • 3 from 4 at 1m3f-1m4f
  • 2+1 from 3 at odds shorter than 7/2
  • 2+1 from 3 as favourite
  • and 2 from 3 at 1m4f

His trainer, Grant Tuer, is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 11.34pts (+94.5% ROI) in handicaps on this this track over the last 12 months, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 16.34pts (+233.5%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which there are 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 10.4pts (+260%) over this 1m4f course and distance.

And now back to the horse's recent 222 form line, which is more common than you'd possibly think, since...in UK Flat/AW Class 3-5 handicaps at odds of 11/1 and shorter, those with a 222 form line who were beaten by less than 15 lengths LTO in the previous 2 months are 97 from 388 (25% SR) for 101.1pts (+26.1% ROI) since 2013, with the following applicable today...

  • 65/174 (37.4%) for 58.8pts (+33.8%) at odds of 6/5 to 7/2
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 49.6pts (+84%) from 5 yr olds
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 37.9pts (+82.4%) at 1m3f-1m4f

...whilst if you wanted a micro based around the above with near 40% strike rates and ROI, then 2-8 yr olds over 5f to 1m4f at 6/5 to 7/2 are 58/149 (38.9% SR) for 58.5pts (+39.3% ROI)...

...pointing towardss...a 1pt win bet on Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG as was offered in a handful of places at 5.00pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (BOG from midnight) were a quarter point longer for those not expecting a drift. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2019

/by

Saturday's pick was...

3.25 Lingfield : Pearl Spectre @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 9/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led 2f out, ridden and headed just inside final furlong, no extra)

Monday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5,208 to the winner...

Why?...

Probably about the bottom end of the odds range I'm comfortable with, but (a) there should still be some value about the price and (b) I think our boy has more than a 28.5% chance of winning here, but what of him?

Well, he's a 5 yr old gelding who in 10 starts this year has 3 wins, 4 runner-up finishes and one other place and has been the runner-up in each of his last three starts (more on that shortly). To date, he has 4 wins and 3 places from 15 on the All-Weather and these include of relevance today...

  • 3 wins, 3 places from 13 in handicaps
  • 3+3 from 12 going left handed
  • 3+2 from 9 on Standard going
  • 3+3 from 8 this year
  • 3+2 from 9 after 10-20 days off track
  • 3 from 5 here at Wolverhampton
  • 3 from 4 at 1m3f-1m4f
  • 2+1 from 3 at odds shorter than 7/2
  • 2+1 from 3 as favourite
  • and 2 from 3 at 1m4f

His trainer, Grant Tuer, is 5 from 12 (41.7% SR) for 11.34pts (+94.5% ROI) in handicaps on this this track over the last 12 months, including 5 from 7 (71.4%) for 16.34pts (+233.5%) at odds of 6/1 and shorter, from which there are 3 winners from 4 (75%) for 10.4pts (+260%) over this 1m4f course and distance.

And now back to the horse's recent 222 form line, which is more common than you'd possibly think, since...in UK Flat/AW Class 3-5 handicaps at odds of 11/1 and shorter, those with a 222 form line who were beaten by less than 15 lengths LTO in the previous 2 months are 97 from 388 (25% SR) for 101.1pts (+26.1% ROI) since 2013, with the following applicable today...

  • 65/174 (37.4%) for 58.8pts (+33.8%) at odds of 6/5 to 7/2
  • 20/59 (33.9%) for 49.6pts (+84%) from 5 yr olds
  • 15/46 (32.6%) for 37.9pts (+82.4%) at 1m3f-1m4f

...whilst if you wanted a micro based around the above with near 40% strike rates and ROI, then 2-8 yr olds over 5f to 1m4f at 6/5 to 7/2 are 58/149 (38.9% SR) for 58.5pts (+39.3% ROI)...

...pointing towardss...a 1pt win bet on Arabic Culture @ 5/2 BOG as was offered in a handful of places at 5.00pm on Sunday, whilst Hills (BOG from midnight) were a quarter point longer for those not expecting a drift. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!