Tag Archive for: Gavin Sheehan

You Wear It Well makes class count for Snowden

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Gavin Sheehan gave You Wear It Well a fine front-running ride to claim the Jack De Bromhead Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Despite having a strong book of form to her name – including a second in the Challow Hurdle and a victory in the Grade Two Jayne Seymour last time out – she was sent off an easy to back 16-1, with 5-4 favourite Luccia was the only horse punters wanted to be on.

Keen to put her proven stamina to good use Sheehan went straight to the front aboard the Jamie Snowden-trained six-year-old and never saw another rival as she showed a tremendous attitude to keep galloping and responding to her rider’s urgings when the pack began to bare down on her in the closing stages.

Henry de Bromhead’s Magical Zoe performed with great credit to take the runner-up spot in the race named in memory of the trainer’s late son, who tragically lost his life in a pony racing accident in September.

An error at the last cost Tony Mullins’ Group One-winning Princess Zoe finishing any closer than fifth.

The winner follows in the footsteps of Love Envoi who triumphed at Sandown before scoring at Prestbury Park, while for Snowden it was somewhat fitting that his second Festival success came in the same colours of Sir Chips Keswick as his maiden winner at the big meeting Present View, ending a long nine-year wait between drinks.

Snowden said: “She’s following the Love Envoi route and is a very talented individual and also a strong stayer at that trip.

“With Honeysuckle retired who knows where she will end up?”

Sheehan added: “I love her, she is a diamond. She tanked the first furlong and a half and she did prick her ears the last time I rode her, but it was honestly poetry in motion today. I just filled her up and when something came on her outside her ears went back.

“We owe a lot to Jamie’s head girl who rides her all the time.

“She’s not easy at home and she will tear up, but once jumping she’s on her game and Jamie is the nicest man.”

Stat of the Day, 14th February 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

3.00 Leicester : Troubled Soul @ 10/3 BOG 6th at 7/1 (Not always fluent, in rear on outside, some headway 9th, hit 12th, soon well beaten)

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.50 Fakenham :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft ground worth £6,433 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, one of the benefits of posting the picks just after 8.00am means we've avoided a non-runner today, after my first choice was scheduled to run at Sandown, hence me going with one slightly shorter in price than I'd normally put up for you (hopefully, there'll be a bit of an early-morning drift). That doesn't, of course, mean that I don't expect to have a winner!

So, why this 6 yr old mare? Well, she's lightly (just 5 starts to date) raced, but has 3 wins and a runner-up finish (odds-on defeat by just a neck at Carlisle LTO 11 days ago) to her name already and aside from her own suitability to the task ahead, I've a few other strands of data that suggest a good run is due here, so I'll try to keep it as brief as I can, starting with...

..the horse, whose 17112 form line includes...

  • 1711 going left handed
  • 112 at Class 4
  • 112 on Soft or softer
  • 112 under jockey Gavin Sheehan (more on him in a moment)
  • and 1 from 1 here at Fakenham

After her narrow defeat at odds-on LTO, she'll look to bounce back quickly and the omens are good as since the start of 2017 in UK NH handicaps, horses turned back out within 30 days of an odds-on defeat of 2 lengths or shorter are 19 from 59 (32.2% SR) for 25.8pts (+43.8% ROI) profit, including the following at play today...

  • 16/30 (53.3%) for 31.8pts (+106%) at odds of evens to 5/1
  • 12/22 (54.6%) for 23pts (+104.5%) at Class 4
  • 11/34 (32.4%) for 13.1pts (+38.6%) over hurdles
  • and 7/13 (53.9%) for 21.7pts (+167.1%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

...with Class 4 runners sent off at evens to 5/1 winning 11 of 16 (68.75% SR) for 20.95pts (+168.4% ROI) profit.

...and now to the jockey. Gavin Sheehan is in good touch right now, having won 5 of 19 (26.3% SR) for 13.5pts (+71.1% ROI) already this month, including of relevance today...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 22.5pts (+225%) at evens to 8/1
  • 3/10 (30%) for 5.43pts (+54.3%) in novice races
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.2pts (+124.3%) in handicaps
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 10.9pts (+218%) on soft ground

and finally our trainer today is Miss Venetia Williams, about whom I have many profitable angles, but we'll just quickly look at two for today, starting with an angle I loosely label "Winter 3m+". Basically some trainers fare better than others with stayers in the main NH season. In Venetia's case, backing her runners during October to April at evens to 8/1 is very successful.

Since the start of 2017, this approach has generated 32 winners from 120 (26.7% SR) for 73.6pts (+61.4% ROI) profit, broken down under today's conditions as follows...

  • 16/49 (32.7%) for 47.9pts (+97.8%) on soft ground
  • 11/41 (26.8%) for 20.7pts (+50.4%) at Class 4
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 20.4pts (+119.9%) in February
  • 6/17 (35.3%) for 14.5pts (+85.5%) 11-15 days after their last run
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 15.3pts (+95.8%) with female runners
  • and 4/9 (44.4%) for 12pts (+133.3%) in novice contests

The other angle I want to touch on before eventually (I didn't want you all to think that second choice meant I'd put less effort in!) signing off on this one is Miss Williams' record in Class 4 handicap hurdles, because at odds of evens to 9/1 since the start of 2017 she has definitely been worth following with 14 winners from 57 (24.6% SR) producing profits of 24.3pts at a decent ROI of 42.6% including...

  • 10/44 (22.7%) for 10.14pts (+23.1%) on soft or softer ground
  • 7/18 (38.9%) for 17.4pts (+96.7%) from her 6 yr olds
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 5.04pts (+168%) over trips of 2m7.5f to 3m1.5f

...all of which has steered me towards...a 1pt win bet on Penny Mallow @ 5/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Friday (with plenty of 11/4 appearing from 8.30 onwards!), but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Fakenham

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!