Tag Archive for: Doncaster racecourse

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, ridden to chase winner when edged left inside final furlong, no extra and lost two places close home

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m84yds on good ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick after winning over 2m4f at Punchestown on his last run for Sean Thomas Doyle, ahead of scoring in a Class 4, 3 mile contest on his yard debut for Archie Watson almost 4 weeks ago at Fakenham under today's jockey Brodie Hampson.

This horse now has 2 wins and a place from 3 efforts in handicap hurdle races, including a win and a place at 3 miles.

His trainer, Archie Watson, is probably best known for his exploits on level ground, but his small string of hurdlers are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 16.56pts (+150.6% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 3m1f, all of which were males ridden by Brodie Hampson and also include of note here...

  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 18.56pts (+206.3%) with 6 yr olds
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 19.56pts (+244.5%) finished in the first three home LTO
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 21.56pts (+359.3%) at 70-170 miles from home
  • 4/10 (40%) for 15.33pts (+153.3%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 6.22pts (+88.9%) at Evens to 4/1
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 17.59pts (+293.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/5 (60%) for 17.7pts (+354%) during February to April
  • 3/5 (60%) for 3.94pts (+78.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 11.08pts (+221.6%) with LTO winners...

...whilst 6 yr olds travelling 70-170 miles to run in Class 4 handicaps after a top 3 finish LTO are 3 from 3, including 2 LTO winners, 2 at Evs to 4/1 and 2 in Feb-April...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Betway, SkyBet & Marathon* at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

8.00 Southwell : Social City @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 5/2 (Mid-division, outpaced over 3f out, weakened over 1f out)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 2, Veterans Handicap Chase for 10yo+ over 3m on soft ground worth £18,768 to the winner...

Why?...

This 10 yr old mare is a lightly-raced veteran if that's not an oxymoron, having only raced 12 times (inc 4 wins) so far, including a 3 from 6 record over fences where she's hardly over-exposed. She won a similar (albeit open age) Class 2 handicap chase here over course and distance on her last outing just over two months when once again partnered by today's jockey, Brian Hughes.

She has 4 wins from 12 to date and here's how, under today's conditions, she got those wins...

  • all four came from 9 races at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 3 from 7 in handicaps
  • 3 from 4 at 3m-3m1f
  • 2 from 5 on soft
  • 2 from 5 under Brian Hughes
  • 2 from 2 at 3m
  • 1 from 1 at Class 2
  • 1 from 1 here at Doncaster (over C&D LTO at C2, of course)

Her jockey Brian Hughes is 6 from 30 (20% SR) for 18.1pts (+60.2% ROI) at this venue over jumps since the start of last year.

And she's trainer Nicky Richards' only runner of the day today and such solo travellers are 35 from 119 (29.4% SR) for 49.1pts (+41.3% ROI) since 2014, including of relevance today...

  • 34/110 (30.9%) for 49.8pts (+45.3%) for prizes up to £21k
  • 20/49 (40.8%) for 54.4pts (+111.1%) during Dec-March
  • 16/42 (38.1%) for 30.05pts (+71.6%) on Soft/heavy
  • 14/50 928%) for 21.4pts (+42.8%) over fences
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 25pts (+166.6%) over 3 miles
  • 7/21 (33.3%) for 4.4pts (+21.1%) from LTO winners
  • 6/15 (40%) for 19.5pts (+130%) at Class 2
  • 4/10 (40%) for 11.87pts (+118.7%) from 10 yr olds
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 19.5pts (+324.5%) at Doncaster
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 7.36pts (+245.3%) in races for 10yo+ horses

...whilst in chases worth £4-21k on soft/heavy during Dec-March, they are 7/16 (43.75% SR) for 16.87pts (+105.4% ROI), including 2/3 at 3m, 2/3 from LTO winners, 1/1 from 10 yr olds and 1/1 at C2...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on My Old Gold @ 4/1 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor, Hills & Marathon at 8.00am Wednesday, whilst Unibet were half a point bigger, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th January 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.00 Southwell : Break The Silence @ 10/3 BOG 4th at 5/2 (Dwelt soon led narrowly, ridden and headed over 1f out, no extra towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 3m2f on Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, on what looks as poor a day of racing that I've seen for some time. I'm going to keep it really simple with a 7 yr old gelding who has made the frame in all bar one of his six efforts over fences, winning once along the way. He stays much further than this, doesn't mind soft ground, he's dropping in class and has been eased 2lb by the assessor since finishing 3rd LTO 39 days ago.

All of which suggests he should be fine with race conditions for his first visit to Doncaster, where trainer Alan King's chasers are 9 from 32 (28.1% SR) for 15.67pts (+49% ROI) over the last five years, including...

  • 9/31 (29%) for 16.67pts (+53.8%) from males
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 23.46pts (+123.5%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 7/20 (35%) for 3.33pts (+16.65%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 20.84pts (+109.7%) from 6-8 yr olds
  • 6/24 (25%) for 18.89pts (+78.7%) in handicaps
  • 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.53pts (+81.7%) in Jan/Feb
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.66pts (+40.7%) on Gd to Soft in case the going eases
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 1.71pts (+34.2%) on soft ground...

...whilst 6-7 yr old males sent off shorter than 5/1 after a top 3 finish LTO are 4 from 8 (50% SR) for 2.29pts (+28.6% ROI), all in the December to February period, 2 from 2 on Good to Soft and 1 from 1 on soft ground...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Stockburn @ 11/4 BOG as was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 8.05am Tuesday morning (but please check your BOG status first), whilst other firms were showing a movement towards that price. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!