Tag Archive for: Catterick racecourse

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2020

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

7.00 Wolverhampton : Reeves @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led early, tracked leader, ridden over 1f out, kept on to take 2nd place towards finish) : three runners-up on the bounce for us now!

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

4.45 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m1½f on Heavy ground worth £4,549 to the winner...

Why?...

Similar to yesterday, in that I've little of substance to choose from at the right price, but the shortness of the fav here means we'll get a decent price about this 7 yr old gelding, who has finished 312 in his last three outings, having only gone down by two lengths over course and distance in a stronger/higher class race last time out 25 days ago after winning here again over C&D two starts ago.

He's by Sir Percy, whose offspring are 11 from 50 (22% SR) for 12.78pts (+25.6% ROI) over trips of 3m to 3m5f since the start of 2017, including of relevance here...

  • 10/40 (25%) for 19.27pts (+48.2%) with 5-7 yr olds
  • 9/39 (23.1%) for 15.9pts (+40.8%) over hurdles
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 15.53pts (+119.5%) during the first quarter of the year
  • and 4/12 (33.3%) for 2.74pts (+22.8%) on soft or heavy ground

He's also running out of a yard that knows how to train stayers, as trainer Sam England's record at 3m1½f to 3m3½f currently stands at 10 from 31 (32.3% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.1% ROI) and these include of note today...

  • 10/28 (35.7%) for 63.8pts (+227.8%) from 6-10 yr olds
  • 10/25 (40%) for 66.8pts (+267.2%) ridden by Jonathan England
  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 52.1pys (+236.6%) from December to April
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 67.7pts (+322.4%) at 11-45 dslr
  • 8/17 (47.1%) for 26.6pts (+156.5%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 7/19 (36.8%) for 54.1pts (+284.5%) in fields of 7-10 runners
  • 7/14 (50%) for 22.4pts (+159.8%) after a top 3 finish LTO
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 25.1pts (+193.3%) over 3m1½f
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 45.5pts (+350.2%) at Class 4
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.4pts (+191.3%) here at Catterick, all over today's course and distance...

...whilst Sam + Jonathan + 3m1½f to 3m3½f + 6-10 yr olds + Dec-April + 11/30 dslr + 7/1 max odds = 7 from 11 (63.6% SR) for 29.5pts (+268.3%) and these runners include 6/10 after a top 3 finish LTO, 4/6 at this trip, 4/5 here at Catterick (all over C&D) and 1/1 at Class 4. Those 11 also include Ask Paddy who is currently (8.50am) priced at 11/4 BOG to win the previous 4.15 race on this card...  

...but my selection is...a 1pt win bet on Mamoo @ 11/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power & Unibet at 8.00am Tuesday,but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.45 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st January 2020

/in /by

Thursday's pick was...

2.45 Ffos Las : Mr Clarkson @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 7/2 (Chased leader to 7th, weakened after 14th, tailed off and well beaten) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Good to Soft ground worth £4,809 to the winner...

Why?...

He might be 12 yrs old now, but he still looks to have at least one more win in him, based off his last two runs where he made the frame in tougher contests than this and on worse ground. Harry Reed steered him in those last two runs and he's on board again today as they go off the same mark as LTO.

This old boy is 5/22 (22.7% SR) in handicap chases, a decent return and he's hardly done the miles you'd expect of a 12 yr old and of those 22 runs, he has achieved the following strike rates under today's conditions...

  • 44.4% after 11-25 days off track (4 from 9)
  • 40% over trips of 2m½f to 2m4f (4/10)
  • 38.5% at odds of 4/1 and shorter (5/13)
  • 33.3% in January (2/6)
  • 31.25% off a mark of 99-110 (5/16)
  • 27.8% in fields of 5-9 runners (5/18)
  • 22.2% in cheekpieces (4/18)
  • 21% at Class 4 (4/19)

...and in 6-9 runner, Class 4 handicap chases at 4/1 and shorter wearing cheekpieces over 2m½f to 2m4f off marks of 100-110 after 11-25 days rest, he is 3 from 4 (75% SR) for 6.66pts (+166.4% ROI).

Trainer Tristan Davidson's horses are going well, having won 4 of 15 (26.7% SR) for 6.49pts (+43.3% ROI) over the last 2 months and he's a rare breed in that if you had followed him religiously for the last two years, you'd have made yourself a nice pot of money.

Not many trainers (especially at this level) are profitable to follow blindly over any extended period of time, but in the last two years backing Tristan's horses would have given you 35 winners from just 134 runners with the 26.1% strike rate yielding a level stake profit at betfair SP of 75.2pts at a cracking ROI of some 56.1%. Under some of today's conditions, those runners are...

  • 34/119 (28.6%) for 86.7pts (+72.9%) in races worth £8k or less
  • 32/106 (30.2%) for 87.5pts (+82.5%) in fields of 6-13 runners
  • 23/102 (22.6%) for 18pts (+16.8%) as Tristan's only runner of the day
  • 22/64 (34.4%) for 97.6pts (+152.4%) when racing 35 to 95 miles from home
  • 21/69 (30.4%) for 47.9pts (+69.4%) in NH contests
  • 21/64 (32.8%) for 39.5pts (+61.7%) were placed LTO
  • 17/58 (29.3%) for 45.5pts (+78.4%) with Harry Reed in the saddle
  • and 12/38 (31.6%) for 31.1pts (+81.8%) at Class 4

...whilst with just one or two runners on the day, Tristan's NH runners set just 35 to 95 miles from home to compete in 6-13 runner contests for £8k or less are 15/29 (51.7% SR) for 71.2pts (+245.7% ROI), including...

  • 11/21 (52.4%) for Harry Reed
  • 8/15 (53.3%) at Class 4
  • 6/14 (42.9%) were placed LTO
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for Harry at C4
  • 5/10 (50%) for Harry with LTO placers
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for C4 runners placed LTO
  • and 3/6 (50%) for Harry at C4 on LTO placers...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 11/4 BOG as was available at 8.05am Friday morning from Bet365, BetVictor & Spreadex (but please check your BOG status first, latter is non-BOG) and then more widely available by 9.00am. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm away for the weekend from lunchtime Friday until Monday afternoon, so whilst I'll do my best to stick to the usual timetable, it might not possible, but there'll definitely be picks from me for Saturday & Monday.

Stat of the Day, 17th December 2019

/in /by

Monday's pick was...

12.30 Ffos Las : Out The Glen @ 10/3 WON at 3/1 (Mid-division, headway and in touch 3rd, went 2nd 4 out, led going best before 2 out, ridden between last 2, kept on well to win by the best part of 2 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

2,55 Catterick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on good to soft ground worth £6,758 to the winner...

Why?...

Going to keep it nice and simple today with an 11 yr old gelding who still seems full of life, having won last time out with a bit to spare despite a mistake at the last over at fairly nearby Sedgefield on soft ground three weeks ago.

That win took his record over fences to 4 from 11, which is decent at this level and includes of relevance today...

  • 4/10 (40%) going left handed & 4/8 (50%) under jockey Danny Cook
  • 3/8 (37.5%) at Class 4 & 3/8 (37.5%) on Good to Soft/Soft ground
  • 3/6 (50%) in November/December & 3/5 (60%) at odds below 4/1
  • 4/4 (75%) within 3 weeks of his last run & 2/5 (40%) at trips shorter than 17f
  • and 2 from 4 (50%) in December...

...whilst his trainer Sue Smith is 22 from 50 (44%) with chasers here at Catterick over the last 6 years with a £10 level stake on all 50 yielding a profit of £685.30 or 137.1% of stakes invested. This highly impressive record includes...

  • 13/30 (43.3%) for 39.7pts (+132.2%) with Danny Cook in the saddle
  • 9/21 (42.9%) for 29.61pts (+141%) at Class 4
  • and 4/4 (100%) for 6.57pts (+164.4%) with LTO winners...

...all of which is enough to support...a 1pt win bet on Maxed Out King @ 5/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.05pm on Monday. Do use BOG if possible, as this one might drift a little, but to see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.55 Catterick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!