Tag Archive for: Brian Ellison

Windsor Avenue out to repeat Sky Bet Chase heroics

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Brian Ellison is optimistic Windsor Avenue can bounce back to form when bidding for a repeat victory in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster on Saturday.

The 11-year-old was a shock 40-1 winner of the Town Moor feature 12 months ago, but has been pulled up in four of his subsequent five starts.

His fourth-place finish behind the top-class L’Homme Presse in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle on his penultimate start is giving his trainer hope, however, while he believes he has discovered a valid reason for his latest no-show in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day.

Ellison said: “He ran really well at Newcastle, but then he finished lame the last time he ran and we found out afterwards he was sore in his knees.

“Hopefully we’ve got him back. He’s definitely working really well and we’ve managed to not miss anything with the bad weather, which is good.

“It’s a hot race and he has been frustrating, but he is in great form and when he’s on-song we know he’s a good horse.”

Windsor Avenue was fitted with blinkers for the first time in last year’s renewal, but did not finish his next three races in the headgear and it has been left off the last twice.

Brian Ellison trains Windsor Avenue
Brian Ellison trains Windsor Avenue (Mike Egerton/PA)

“The blinkers are finished for him,” Ellison added.

“They worked at Doncaster last year, but they didn’t work after that – he didn’t want to know.

“He didn’t even want to go out on the track with them on at Aintree (in October), so we took them off and he then ran well in the Rehearsal. Hopefully we can get back to that.”

Windsor Avenue was one of 22 horses left in the Sky Bet Chase at Monday’s confirmation stage, with Mark Walford’s Into Overdrive and Jamie Snowden’s Ga Law two of the leading contenders.

Ga Law and jockey Jonathan Burke after winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham
Ga Law and jockey Jonathan Burke after winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham (David Davies/Jockey Club)

Into Overdrive was second in the Rehearsal before going one better in the Rowland Meyrick, while Ga Law was last seen winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November.

The weights are headed by Nicky Henderson’s Dusart, with Cap Du Nord (Christian Williams), the prolific Tea For Free (Charlie Longsdon) and Cooper’s Cross (Stuart Coltherd) also standing their ground.

Mr Incredible and Stolen Silver are two of the more notable absentees.

Stat of the Day, 10th January 2020

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Thursday's pick was...

1.10 Leicester : Wenceslaus @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Meeting abandoned : waterlogged track)

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.00 Sedgefield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m3½f on Soft (G to S in places) ground worth £7,018 to the winner...

Why?...

Well, we like horse, jockey & trainer under today's conditions, so let's look at each!

The horse : This 8 yr old gelding actually won this race last year and loves coming here to tackle the fences, having won three times and placed on a further two occasions from just six efforts in handicap chases here, including...

  • 3/5 (60%) for 4.15pts (+83%) on Soft/Gd to Soft
  • 3/5 (60%) for 4.15pts (+83%) in fields of 5-9 runners
  • 3/3 (100%) for 6.15pts (+205%) in Jan/Feb
  • 2/5 (40%) for 0.71pts (+14.1%) under jockey Henry Brooke (more on him very shortly)
  • 2/4 (50%) for 2.88pts (+72%) over this course and distance
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 1.71pts (+42.6%) on Soft ground

The Jockey : Henry Brooke also has a great record here, winning 22 of 88 (25% SR) handicap chases at this venue over the last seven years, generating 59.9pts profit at an impressive 68% ROI, largely thanks to the following achieved under today's conditions...

  • 22/81 (27.2%) for 66.9pts (+82.6%) on male runners
  • 16/58 (27.6%) for 66.1pts (+114%) with 6-9 yr olds
  • 8/30 (26.7%) for 6.39pts (+21.3%) over 2m3.5f to 2m4f
  • 4/10 (40%) for 1.69pts (+16.9%) for trainer Brian Ellison (see below)
  • and 4/7 (57.1%) for 13.14pts (+187.7%) in January

and the trainer : Brian Ellison, who for one reason or another doesn't send too many handicap chasers to Sedgefield, despite it only being a 60-mile journey from his yard in North Yorkshire. We can discount the travelling aspect for his lack of visits here and it certainly isn't because he can't get winners here either.

In the last four years, his Sedgefield handicap chase record at odds of Evens to 15/4 stands at 7 from 16 (43.75% SR) for 6.68pts (+41.8% ROI) profit. All 16 were male and include...

  • 5/10 (50%) for 5.69pts (+56.9%) on Gd to Soft/Soft
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 5.37pts (+89.5%) in Jan/Feb
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 4.69pts (+66.9%) using Henry Brooke's services
  • 3/5 (60%) for 6.21pts (+124.2%) over course and distance
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 3pts (+42.9%) at Class 3...

...and this 3-pronged approach suggests...a 1pt win bet on Instant Replay @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365, SkyBet & Hills (but please check your BOG status first) at 8.10am on Friday and was still offered by Bet365 at 9.05am. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Sedgefield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!