Tag Archive for: Ben Curtis

Stat of the Day, 4th February 2020

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Monday's pick was...

6.30 Wolverhampton : Comeatchoo @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Slowly into stride, held up in mid-division, headway on outside 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, led and edged left entering final furlong, ran on under pressure, headed last strides)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

7.30 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m3f on Polytrack worth £6,469 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old male is one of only two former course and distance winners in today's contest and showed signs of a return to form when a runner-up at this class, track and trip last time out fifteen days ago.

His record here is good, making the frame 8 times (57.1%) from 14 attempts, including four wins (28.6% SR) that have generated 29.22pts profit at an ROI of some 208.7% from which he is...

  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 32.22pts (+292.9%) off today's mark of 76 or lower
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 11.41pts (+163%) when sent off at odds ranging from Evens to 8/1
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.04pts (+167.4%) at Class 4
  • 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.04pts (+167.4%) over course and distance
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 24.18pts (+806%) within 15 days of his last run
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 4.22pts (+211%) in February

Jockey Ben Curtis takes the ride for the first time today and Ben is red hot right now, winning on 6 of his 19 (31.6% SR) mounts over the last four days and whilst he rarely rides for trainer Tony Carroll, the pair were 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 10.75pts (+179.1% ROI) together in January, including 2 from 4 (50%) for 8.33pts (+208.2%) on handicaps and 2 from 2 (100%) for 9.67pts (+483.5%) beyond a mile...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ilhabela Fact @ 11/4 BOG as was available from Bet365, BetVictor & Unibet at 8.05am Tuesday morning. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th January 2020

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Friday's pick was...

5.15 Wolverhampton : Klopp @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn at 3.30pm, Self Cert as Lame)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.10 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m4f on Polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?...

There's no doubting that this 7yr old gelding is regarded as a "quirky, unreliable sort", but it's equally undeniable that he's (a) talented and (b) a lover of this track. And it's his record here allied to what looks a good price that made him of interest today.

Last seen a week ago, winning again here over course and distance at a higher grade under today's jockey Ben Curtis, he stayed on well to win by half a length and although he's up in weight by 2lbs, the drop down to Class 3 should help him attempt to improve an already excellent record on the Polytrack here at Lingfield.

That record currently stands at 8 wins from 20 (40% SR) for 76.8pts (+384% ROI), which is very impressive overall and even more if  you consider that under today's conditions, he is...

  • 7/14 (50%) for 77.42pts (+553% ROI) for trainer Neil King
  • 7/12 (58.3%) for 28pts (+233.2%) at 8/1 or shorter
  • 6/10 (60%) for 24.61pts (+246.1%) in handicaps
  • 6/7 (85.7%) for 73.67pts (+1052.4%) in races worth less than £8,000 to the winner
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 71.25pts (+791.7%) in fields of 7-9 runners
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 14.16pts (+157.4%) over this 1m4f course and distance
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 9.79pts (+122.4%) after a top 2 finish LTO
  • 4/9 (44.4%) for 67.56pts (+750.7%) within 25 days of his last run
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 3.05pts (+101.7%) at Class 3
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 10.43pts (+347.6%) in January...

...and when sent off at odds of 8/1 or shorter for Neil King in an A/W handicap worth less than £8,000 here at Lingfield, Petite Jack has won all five starts, generating 18.87pts profit for his followers at an ROI of some 377.4% and this fairly simplistic approach today...

...is the basis for...a 1pt win bet on Petite Jack @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.20am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.10 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th January 2020

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Friday's pick was...

6.45 Newcastle : She's Easyontheeye @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 15/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in 3rd, pushed along halfway, ridden and one pace over 1f out)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

7.15 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m on Polytrack worth £5,434 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has finished 121 in his last three starts, culminating in a course and distance win here 16 days ago under today's jockey Ben Curtis despite losing his whip in the closing stages, taking the horse's record on the A/W to include of relevance today...

  • 2/5 in handicaps
  • 2/4 on Standard going
  • 2/4 going left handed
  • 2/3 here at Chelmsford
  • 2/3 under Ben Curtis
  • 2/3 in a visor
  • 1/1 over a mile
  • 1/1 over C&D

Meanwhile, over the last seven months, jockey Ben is 5 from 10 (50% SR) for 40.98pts (+409.8% ROI) when riding for trainer George Scott, including...

  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 38pts (+534.4%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 11.7pts (+167.4%) at evens to 5/1
  • 3/6 (50%) for 33.67pts (+561.2%) on the A/W
  • 2/4 (50%) for 6.17pts (+154.3%) at Class 4
  • 2/2 (100%) for 34.5pts (+1725%) here at Chelmsford
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 33.28pts (+1116%) with horses wearing a visor
  • 2/2 (100%) for 34.5pts (+1725%) here at Chelmsford
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.41pts (+270.3%) over 1m

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Strawberry Jack @ 5/2 BOG as was offered by SkyBet & Unibet at 8.10am Saturday morning (but please check your BOG status first). To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!