Tag Archive for: ascot horse racing trends

Sat TV Trends: 15th Feb 2020

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With the equine flu situation now over, racing is back and it's back with a bang!

With the ITV cameras covering some of last week's lost races we've now 10 contests to take in from Ascot, Haydock, Wincanton and even  heading over to Ireland for the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park.

So, to help narrow down the fields, and point you in the direction of a few winners, then we’ve got all the LIVE races covered from a trends and stats angle – we hope they help!

 

ASCOT HORSE RACING TRENDS (ATR/ITV)

1.50 - Sodexo Reynoldstown Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

17/17 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
15/17 – Had run within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over fences previously
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
10/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s RSA Chase (2 winners)
9/17 – Winners that went onto finish 5th or better in the RSA Chase
8/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill

Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park

 

2.25 – Keltbray Swinley Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m7f180y ITV4

Only 9 previous runnings
9/9 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/9 – Finished 5th or better last time out
8/9 – Aged 8 or older
7/9 – Won 1 or 2 chase races previously
7/9 – Raced at either Ascot (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
6/9 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
6/9 – Had raced at Ascot (fences) before
5/9 – Aged in double-figures
4/9 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/9 – Irish bred
4/9 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
3/9 – Winning distance head or shorter
2/9 – Won last time out
2/9 – Winning Favourites
5 of the last 7 winners carried 11-0 or more
Regal Encore won the race in 2018 and was third in 2019.

 

3.00 Give The Gift Of Ascot Annual Membership Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m3 1/2f ITV4

13/14 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
10/14 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 or less
9/14 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/14 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
8/14 – Carried 10-12 or less
8/14 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/14 – Winners that went onto race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/14 – Placed favourites
6/14 – Priced 9/1 or bigger
6/14 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
5/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/14 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/14 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
3/14 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/14 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls

 

3.35 - Betfair Ascot Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m5f110y ITV4

17/17 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
16/17– Priced at 15/2 or shorter in the market
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
14/17 – Winners that didn’t win their next start
14/17 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or more
13/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Officially rated 157 or higher
11/17 – Priced 2/1 or shorter in the market
11/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Won between 1-4 times over fences previously
7/17 – Unplaced in their latest race
7/17 – Raced at Kempton (King George) last time out
6/17 – Won over fences at Ascot previously
6/17 – Won their last race
5/17 – Winners that ran in that season’s Ryanair Chase (1 winner, Cue Card) later that year
3/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
10 of the last 13 winners returned 2/1 or shorter in the betting
Note: The 2005 & 2006 - Run at Lingfield Park
Waiting Patiently won this race in 2018, Cyrname won the race in 2019

 

HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

2.05 – Unibet Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m6f177y ITV4

16/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
13/17 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) previously
11/17 – Rated 145 or higher
11/17 – Placed favourites
11/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
11/17 – Had won at least 4 times over hurdles before
10/17 – Aged 8 or younger
10/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
8/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s World Hurdle (no winners)
8/17 – Had run at Haydock before
6/17 – French-bred
4/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
1/17 – Winning favourites
1/17 – Winners that went onto win the Coral Cup at the Cheltenham Festival

Note: The 2003, 2004, 2005 - Run at Kempton Park

 

3.15 – Unibet Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV4

17/17 – UK-based trained winners
17/17 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
14/17 – Aged 10 or younger
13/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Rated 135 or higher
12/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17 – Finished in the top two last time out
11/17 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
7/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
7/17 – Irish-bred winners
4/17 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/17 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/17 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/17 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
4 of the last 5 winners returned 8/1 in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1

 

WINCANTON HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV4)

 

2.45 - Betway Kingwell Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 1m7f65y ITV4

16/16 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/16 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Favourites to finish in the top 3
14/16 – Had won at least 3 times over hurdles before
12/16 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle (1 winner Katchit)
12/16 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/16 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
9/16 – Rated 155 or higher
8/16 – Winning favourites
8/16 – Won last time out
6/16 – Raced at Sandown last time out
4/16 – Trained by Alan King
1/16 – Winners that went onto win the World Hurdle (Inglis Drever)

 

GOWRAN PARK TRENDS

2.54 – Red Mills Chase (Grade 2) 2m4f

11/11 – Had won over at least 2m4f (Chase) before
11/11 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
10/11 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Irish bred
8/11 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Aged 8 or younger
8/11 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
7/11 – Winning favourites
6/11 – Rated 150 or lower
4/11 – Raced at Thurles last time out
3/11 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/11 – Ridden by Paul Townend

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 18th Jan 2020

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It’s off to Haydock and Ascot this Saturday for the LIVE ITV action with the Clarence House Chase and Peter Marsh Chase the two big highlights – like all big race days we've got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle…….use these to help whittle down the final runners and find the best winning profiles of past winners.

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


1.50 – bet365 Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

10/10 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
9/10 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
9/10 – From the top 4 in the betting
9/10 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
8/10 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
7/10 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
7/10 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (3) in their last race
7/10 – Favourites placed
6/10 – Won their last race
6/10 – Winning Favourites
4/10 – French bred
3/10 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/10 – Aged 6 years-old
2/10 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/10 - Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/10 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 5 runnings
Magic Light (15/8 fav) won the race in 2019


2.25 – Matchbook Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4

10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
9/12 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
9/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
9/12 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
9/12 – Officially rated 139 or higher
9/12 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
8/12 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
6/12 – French bred
6/12 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/12 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
6/12 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/12 – Won their last race
6/12 – Aged 6 years-old
5/12 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/12 – Trained by David Pipe
3/12 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/12 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/12 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/12 – Favourites (1 co)
Ballymoy (4/1) won the race in 2019

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

13/13 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
11/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/13 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
11/13 – Either French (4) or Irish (7) bred
10/13 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
9/13 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/13 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
8/13 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/13 – Aged 8 or younger
6/13 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/13 – From the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Winning distance  - 6 lengths or further
5/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/13 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 5 runnings)
2/13 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Winning Favourites

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

 

3.35 – Matchbook Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (5 winners)
10/17 – Raced at Sandown (6) or Wetherby (3) last time out
10/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/17 – Favourites that won
8/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets, 2019 Altior)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
4/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (29 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old

The average winning SP in the last 14 runnings is 10/3

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)


2.05 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

13/13 – Aged 7 or younger
13/13 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
12/13 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Priced 4/1 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Won their last race
7/13 – Aged 5 years-old
7/13 – Winning Favourites
6/13 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/13 -  Ran at Haydock last time out
3/13 – French bred
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/13 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/13 – Trained by Venetia Williams
2/13 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr

Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

 

2.40 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

16/16 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
15/16 – Aged 8 or older
15/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
14/16 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/16 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
11/16 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
11/16 – Won at Haydock previously
11/16 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
10/16 – Favourites unplaced
9/16 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/16 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
8/16 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
8/16 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
8/16 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/16 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/16 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/16 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
5/16 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/16 – Trained by Sue Smith
3/16 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/16 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/16 – Won their last race
2/16 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 10/1

 

3.15 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

14/14 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
14/14 – Favourites placed in the top 3
12/14 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/14 -  From the top 3 in the betting
11/14 – Finished in the top three in their last race
11/14 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
11/14 – Priced 9/4 or shorter
11/14 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/14 – Officially Rated 150 or higher
11/14 – Either French (3) or Irish (8) bred
10/14 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (6) last time out
8/14 – Aged 7 or younger
8/14 – Winning Favourites
4/14 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/14 – Won their last race
1/14 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle

 

 

 

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